• Ravens live off big plays.
  Baltimore’s offense ranks near the top of the league in big-play touchdown rate, with 28.9% of their 20-plus-yard plays ending in TDs. They do not always sustain long drives, but they can flip the scoreboard fast if coverage busts appear.

• Steelers prefer long, grinding drives.
  Pittsburgh ranks at 90.0% in long-drive efficiency and carries a strong 62.2% red-zone touchdown rate. Their deep passing is weak (just 2.1% explosive deep pass rate), so they tend to move the ball in chunks and finish with efficient red-zone execution rather than bombs.

• Pittsburgh’s defense is boom-or-bust.
  The Steelers force turnovers at a 2.3% rate near the top of the league, and they are excellent at the goal line with a 66.7% stuff rate. But they also sit near the bottom in explosive runs allowed (5.8%) and have a poor third-down stop rate (51.4%), which keeps the defense on the field and invites big rushing days.

• Baltimore’s defense is tough at the goal line but not dominant overall.
  The Ravens have a 68.4% goal-line stuff rate, so teams often struggle to punch it in once they get inside the five. However, their overall pass rush struggles to convert pressure into sacks, and their red-zone TD allowed rate is only average, which keeps opposing offenses in games.

• Quarterback health shapes the script.
  Lamar Jackson’s leg injury could shift Baltimore from designed QB runs to a more traditional run game built around Henry. On the other side, Aaron Rodgers and several Steelers linemen are Questionable, which could limit Pittsburgh’s passing ceiling and push them toward more quick throws and the ground game.

• Both secondaries are banged up.
  Each side lists multiple starting corners and safeties as Questionable. If more of those defensive backs sit than expected, both passing attacks can outperform their season-long numbers, even with deep passing as a relative weakness for Pittsburgh.

• Market leans clearly toward Baltimore.
  The Ravens sit around -5.5 favorites with a price near -118, while Pittsburgh is about +5.5 at -110. That spread shows the market rating Baltimore more than just a basic home favorite, even with Lamar Questionable and both defenses dealing with injuries.

• Total sits in the low 40s despite explosive potential.
  The main game total centers around 43.0, with Over 43.0 at -106 and Under 43.0 around -120 and a nearby 42.5 total as well. That projects a mid-range score rather than a shootout, which matches recent Ravens offensive struggles and Pittsburgh’s slow, grind-it-out style, but it also leaves room for a few big plays to blow things up.

• Team totals mirror the spread gap.
  Baltimore’s team total is 23.5 points (Over -127, Under -112) while Pittsburgh sits at 17.5 (Over -116, Under -122). If you like the Ravens side but worry about late backdoor points, their team total offers another way to lean into a moderate scoring script. If you lean toward a Steelers upset or cover, their Over 17.5 pairs better with that story than a low-scoring grind.

• Derrick Henry props match the run-defense narrative.
  Henry’s rushing line is 85.5 yards with both sides at -119, and his anytime touchdown price is around -225. Those numbers show the market already expects heavy usage and red-zone work against a Steelers front that has surrendered 249 rushing yards to Buffalo and two big rushing days to Baltimore this season. That TD price carries steep juice, so it fits better as a small parlay piece than a big straight bet.

• Quarterback rushing and short passing props show injury risk.
  Lamar Jackson’s rushing line is 25.5 yards (Under -122, Over -118), which is low for his normal profile but still volatile; one broken scramble can clear it, yet Baltimore may protect him with fewer designed runs. On the Pittsburgh side, Jaylen Warren’s receiving line of 11.5 yards (Over -112) reflects a small role but gives Rodgers an easy outlet if pressure gets home, especially with several Ravens pass rushers and DBs on the injury report.

• Tight end volume can be a pressure valve.
  Mark Andrews sits at 33.5 receiving yards (Over -123, Under -116). With both wide receiver groups and both secondaries banged up, his intermediate routes fit a script where Baltimore keeps Lamar in the pocket more often and attacks a Steelers defense that ranks poorly on third down. The juice is noticeable, so bettors should weigh price versus usage expectations.

This Steelers–Ravens matchup has everything: rivalry tension, playoff stakes, and coaching pressure. Both teams are 6–6 and have seen their playoff odds swing wildly all season, and the models suggest another huge jump for whoever wins on Sunday. With Baltimore having taken both meetings earlier this year and last season’s playoff game, the home team carries the mental edge, but that does not guarantee anything in this kind of divisional fight.

On the field, the story starts with Derrick Henry and the Baltimore run game testing Pittsburgh’s biggest weakness. The Steelers’ run defense has allowed huge numbers in recent weeks and now must try again to stop an attack that already burned them twice. If they cannot plug those leaks, Baltimore can control the pace, lean on Henry in the red zone, and set up play-action shots even if Lamar is less mobile than usual.

For Pittsburgh, the path to an upset runs through clean quarterback play, sustained drives, and red-zone execution. When healthy, Aaron Rodgers still commands an offense that ranks well in long-drive efficiency and red-zone TD rate. If their banged-up line holds up and the receivers on the injury report are active, the Steelers can move the ball methodically and finish enough drives to keep this within one score.

From a betting angle, this game comes with real variance. Both starting quarterbacks are Questionable, and there are clusters of injuries along the offensive lines and in the secondaries. That means numbers like Ravens -5.5 and a total around 43 can move if late-week reports break one way. Bettors should treat this matchup with respect: tie any lean to a clear game script, price in the juice on heavily favored props, and stay flexible as you watch the injury news leading into kickoff.