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PHI
SF
Game Preview
San Francisco and Philadelphia run this rivalry on real scars. The Eagles ended a 49ers season in Philly not long ago, and both fan bases still talk about it. Now they meet again at Lincoln Financial Field on Jan. 11, 2026 (4:30 PM ET).
The matchup starts with the quarterbacks. Brock Purdy plays in an offense built on timing, yards after the catch, and clean third downs. Jalen Hurts brings a different problem. He can win from the pocket, but he also changes math with his legs in key spots.
The bigger story might be who is missing. The 49ers list Nick Bosa and Fred Warner on injured reserve, and that hits the spine of the defense. If San Francisco cannot create negative plays, Hurts and Saquon Barkley can stay ahead of the chains and keep the crowd involved.
On the other side, Trent Williams is questionable, and that matters for both protection and the run game. The Eagles have their own swing injury with Lane Johnson questionable. With these teams, one lineman can change the whole feel of a drive.
Current Season Form
PHI
AwaySF
HomeHead-to-Head Summary
Past Results
| Date | Opponent | Result | ATS | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-04 | vs WAS | L 17-24 | L 3.0 | o38.5 |
| 2025-12-28 | @ BUF | W 13-12 | L 3.0 | u45.5 |
| 2025-12-20 | @ WAS | W 29-18 | W +-7.0 | o43.5 |
| 2025-12-14 | vs LV | W 31-0 | W +12.5 | u37.5 |
| 2025-12-08 | @ LAC | L 19-22 | L -1.5 | u41.5 |
| 2025-11-28 | vs CHI | L 15-24 | L 7.0 | u43.5 |
| 2025-11-23 | @ DAL | L 21-24 | P -3.0 | u47.5 |
| 2025-11-16 | vs DET | W 16-9 | W +2.5 | u46.5 |
| 2025-11-10 | @ GB | W 10-7 | W +1.5 | u45.5 |
| 2025-10-26 | vs NYG | W 38-20 | W +7.0 | o43.5 |
Key Insights
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San Francisco is elite on money downs: 53.3% third-down conversion (best in the league by percentile).
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The 49ers also finish drives: 66.1% red-zone TD rate (percentile 97). That can hide lower play volume.
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Philadelphia’s explosive run game is a real lever: 4.5% explosive run rate (percentile 70).
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The Eagles turn explosives into points more than most: 23.4% big-play TD rate (percentile 84).
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San Francisco’s pass rush has struggled to close: 2.8% sack rate generated and 2.8% pressure-to-sack conversion (both percentile 3).
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Injuries can swing the “how”: Warner and Bosa being out shifts stress to the 49ers’ back seven, while Trent Williams and Lane Johnson being questionable can reshape protection and run lanes.
Betting Insights
Eagles -5.5 (-132) is the cleanest spread anchor on the board. You pay extra juice, but it lines up with SF’s defensive injuries, especially up the middle and on the edge.
If you want a cheaper price, Eagles -6.0 (-103) trades a half point for less juice. That half point can matter late.
The main total sits in the mid-40s: Over 44.5 (-112) and Under 44.5 (-119). With SF’s red-zone TD profile, a few long drives can flip an under fast.
Jalen Hurts Over 30.5 rushing yards (-120) fits a game where SF struggles to finish pressure. Scrambles and designed keepers both count.
Saquon Barkley Over 83.5 rushing yards (-118) ties to Philly’s explosive run rate and SF’s linebacker injury pileup. Big runs are the quickest way to break a spread.
Christian McCaffrey Over 42.5 receiving yards (-122) is a volume bet with Aiyuk out. If SF leans on high-percentage throws, CMC can rack yards without “home run” plays.
Final Summary
This game looks like a fight over drive shape. San Francisco wants long, clean possessions and high third-down success. Philadelphia wants chunk plays, especially on the ground, and short fields from chaos.
The injuries are the loudest part of the handicap. The 49ers missing Bosa and Warner is not subtle. It changes how fast they can get off the field and how well they can tackle in space. For Philly, Lane Johnson’s status matters because it touches everything: protection, run lanes, and how confident they feel calling shots.
From a betting view, the market is asking you to lay close to a touchdown with the Eagles. That is a big number in a rivalry game, so be honest about variance. One turnover or one busted coverage can swing it.
If you want a steadier angle, the props point to the same script: Hurts’ legs, Barkley’s volume, and McCaffrey as the 49ers’ safest outlet. Keep an eye on the questionable linemen. If Trent Williams and Lane Johnson are limited, it can move both the spread and the total in a hurry.
Statistical Battle Boards
OffenseDefense| Statistic | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Advantage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Points | 281 | #9 | 225 | #26 | |
| Total Points Per Game | 23.4 | #15 | 20.5 | #8 | |
| Total Touchdowns | 30 | #11 | 23 | #6 | |
| Passing Touchdowns | 21 | #4 | 11 | #5 | |
| Rushing Touchdowns | 9 | #17 | 12 | #24 | |
| Other Touchdowns | 0 | #26 | 0 | #7 | |
| Total Kicking Points | 97 | #6 | 83 | #16 | |
| Total Two Point Conversions | 2 | #5 | 1 | #18 | |
| Kick Extra Points | 22 | #22 | 20 | #27 | |
OffenseDefense| Statistic | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Advantage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Passing Yards | 2993 | #1 | 2475 | #13 | |
| Net Passing Yards Per Game | 249 | #3 | 225 | #11 | |
| Passer Rating | 94.6 | #12 | 80.3 | #28 | |
| Passing Attempts | 420 | #2 | 377 | #22 | |
| Completions | 291 | #1 | 216 | #22 | |
| Completion Percentage | 69.3 | #4 | 57.3 | #1 | |
| Passing 1st downs | 163 | #1 | 111 | #9 | |
| Passing 1st Down % | 62.0 | #4 | 51.2 | #4 | 🏈 |
| Longest Pass | 56 | #20 | 77 | #5 | |
| Passing Fumbles Lost | 5 | #2 | 1 | #29 | |
| Receiving Targets | 406 | #1 | 362 | #11 | |
| Receptions | 291 | #1 | 216 | #11 | |
| Receiving Yards After Catch | 1412 | #5 | 1171 | #15 | |
| YAC Average | 4.9 | #21 | 5.4 | #25 | |
OffenseDefense| Statistic | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Advantage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rushing Yards | 1190 | #23 | 1266 | #18 | |
| Rushing Yards Per Game | 99.2 | #26 | 115 | #15 | |
| Rushing Attempts | 333 | #3 | 296 | #18 | |
| Yards Per Rush Attempt | 3.6 | #30 | 4.3 | #13 | |
| Rushing 1st downs | 83 | #9 | 81 | #22 | |
| 20+ Yard Rushing Plays | 1 | #30 | 5 | #19 | |
| Long Rushing | 20 | #32 | 49 | #19 | |
| Rushing Fumbles | 1 | #30 | 5 | #19 | |
| Rushing Fumbles Lost | 0 | #26 | 4 | #3 | |
Game Preview of San Francisco 49ers @ Philadelphia Eagles. Wildcard Weekend of 2026 NFL Season
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