• San Francisco is elite on money downs: 53.3% third-down conversion (best in the league by percentile).

• The 49ers also finish drives: 66.1% red-zone TD rate (percentile 97). That can hide lower play volume.

• Philadelphia’s explosive run game is a real lever: 4.5% explosive run rate (percentile 70).

• The Eagles turn explosives into points more than most: 23.4% big-play TD rate (percentile 84).

• San Francisco’s pass rush has struggled to close: 2.8% sack rate generated and 2.8% pressure-to-sack conversion (both percentile 3).

• Injuries can swing the “how”: Warner and Bosa being out shifts stress to the 49ers’ back seven, while Trent Williams and Lane Johnson being questionable can reshape protection and run lanes.

• Eagles -5.5 (-132) is the cleanest spread anchor on the board. You pay extra juice, but it lines up with SF’s defensive injuries, especially up the middle and on the edge.

• If you want a cheaper price, Eagles -6.0 (-103) trades a half point for less juice. That half point can matter late.

• The main total sits in the mid-40s: Over 44.5 (-112) and Under 44.5 (-119). With SF’s red-zone TD profile, a few long drives can flip an under fast.

• Jalen Hurts Over 30.5 rushing yards (-120) fits a game where SF struggles to finish pressure. Scrambles and designed keepers both count.

• Saquon Barkley Over 83.5 rushing yards (-118) ties to Philly’s explosive run rate and SF’s linebacker injury pileup. Big runs are the quickest way to break a spread.

• Christian McCaffrey Over 42.5 receiving yards (-122) is a volume bet with Aiyuk out. If SF leans on high-percentage throws, CMC can rack yards without “home run” plays.

This game looks like a fight over drive shape. San Francisco wants long, clean possessions and high third-down success. Philadelphia wants chunk plays, especially on the ground, and short fields from chaos.

The injuries are the loudest part of the handicap. The 49ers missing Bosa and Warner is not subtle. It changes how fast they can get off the field and how well they can tackle in space. For Philly, Lane Johnson’s status matters because it touches everything: protection, run lanes, and how confident they feel calling shots.

From a betting view, the market is asking you to lay close to a touchdown with the Eagles. That is a big number in a rivalry game, so be honest about variance. One turnover or one busted coverage can swing it.

If you want a steadier angle, the props point to the same script: Hurts’ legs, Barkley’s volume, and McCaffrey as the 49ers’ safest outlet. Keep an eye on the questionable linemen. If Trent Williams and Lane Johnson are limited, it can move both the spread and the total in a hurry.