• Seattle’s run game can flip field position. The Seahawks posted a 5.1% explosive run rate (91st percentile).

• San Francisco wins late in downs. The 49ers converted 53.3% on third down (best in the NFL).

• Seattle’s defense can end drives. It logged a 64.3% third-down stop rate (94th percentile).

• Seattle protects its QB well. The Seahawks allowed sacks on just 3.2% of dropbacks (94th percentile).

• San Francisco’s red-zone offense stayed sharp. The 49ers scored TDs on 66.1% of red-zone trips (97th percentile).

• Injuries tighten the 49ers’ passing options. Aiyuk is out and Kittle is on IR, and Pearsall is Questionable.

• Seahawks -7.5 (-105) fits if you expect Seattle to control the trenches. Seattle protects well (3.2% sack rate allowed), and SF misses pass-rush juice without Bosa.

• 49ers +7.5 (-132) is the “hang around” case. SF’s 53.3% third-down rate can keep games close, but you pay extra juice to take the points.

• The best total number on the board is 45.5, with Under 45.5 (-127) and Over 45.5 (-106). Seattle plays slower than SF (Seahawks plays per minute sits in the 31st percentile), which can pull the total down if the Seahawks dictate tempo.

• Kenneth Walker III over 56.5 rush yards (-116) pairs with Seattle’s big-run profile (5.1% explosive run rate). One or two pop plays can do a lot of work.

• Jauan Jennings over 42.5 receiving yards (-120) gets a boost from SF’s missing targets (Aiyuk out, Kittle IR). It’s a volume bet more than a splash-play bet.

• Sam Darnold 238.5 passing yards (Over -118, Under -122) is all about health. If he is truly full go, the over is live. If he plays tight or Seattle leans run-first, the under plays cleaner.

Seattle has two clear paths. One is the steady path: protect the QB, run the ball, and stack long drives. The Seahawks ranked first in long drive efficiency (95.2%), and that style supports a big favorite.

San Francisco’s counter is simple too. Stay out of bad down-and-distance and keep converting third downs. The 49ers did that all year at an elite level (53.3% on third down). If they keep moving the chains, the spread gets uncomfortable for Seattle.

The injury list pushes this game toward Seattle on paper. San Francisco misses pillars on defense and offense, including Warner, Bosa, and Kittle, plus Aiyuk. Seattle’s biggest issue is Darnold’s oblique. That one item can swing the total and most player props.

If you bet it, respect the prices. -132 on the 49ers spread and -127 on the under come with real juice, meaning you need a higher win rate to profit. This matchup has tight-game outcomes in its range, so size your bets like variance is coming.

Full disclosure, I change my mind on this game every hour or so. I don't fully trust the Seahawks and Darnold in the big games yet and Shanahan knows how to win every big game except the Superbowl. With the injuries especially, head says Seahawks, gut says 49ers.