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DET
TB
Game Preview
The Buccaneers head to Ford Field to face the Lions on Monday night. Kick is set for 7:00 p.m. ET. Detroit looks to bounce back at home. Tampa Bay tries to keep pace at the top of the NFC.
Health will drive a lot of this matchup. For Tampa Bay, Baker Mayfield is listed as Questionable. So are Mike Evans and Rachaad White. Chris Godwin and Bucky Irving trend the wrong way. Detroit has injuries too. Amon-Ra St. Brown is Questionable. Left tackle Taylor Decker is Questionable. The Lions’ cornerback room is thin with several players out.
Explosive plays could be the swing factor. An explosive pass is a gain of 15 or more yards. Tampa rates well at creating them. Detroit’s defense has allowed a fair share and is short on healthy corners. On the other side, the Lions can strike fast when they hit rhythm, and Tampa’s defense has given up chunk passes.
Both fronts matter. Detroit’s pass rush converts pressure into sacks at a strong rate. Tampa’s line is banged up, though the Bucs have kept their sack rate allowed in a respectable range. If Mayfield has time, he can push the ball. If not, checkdowns to backs and tight ends may carry the night.
Current Season Form
DET
AwayTB
HomeHead-to-Head Summary
Past Results
| Date | Opponent | Result | ATS | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-12 | @ KC | L 17-30 | L 2.5 | u51.5 |
| 2025-10-05 | @ CIN | W 37-24 | W +-10.5 | o49.5 |
| 2025-09-28 | vs CLE | W 34-10 | W +10.0 | u44.5 |
| 2025-09-22 | @ BAL | W 38-30 | W +4.5 | o53.5 |
| 2025-09-14 | vs CHI | W 52-21 | W +6.0 | o46.5 |
| 2025-09-07 | @ GB | L 13-27 | L 1.5 | u48.5 |
| 2025-01-18 | vs WAS | L 31-45 | L 8.5 | o55.5 |
| 2025-01-05 | vs MIN | W 31-9 | W +3.0 | u56.5 |
| 2024-12-30 | @ SF | W 40-34 | W +-4.0 | o50.5 |
| 2024-12-22 | @ CHI | W 34-17 | W +-7.0 | o47.5 |
Key Insights
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Tampa can create chunk gains. Bucs’ explosive pass rate is 8.4% (73rd percentile; sample 203), boosted by scheme explosives 5.8% (88th).
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Detroit’s pass rush is real. Lions sit 8.3% in sack rate generated and pressure-to-sack conversion (both 84th), a solid test for Tampa’s injured OL.
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Tampa’s defense gives up explosives. Bucs allow explosive passes at 8.5% (20th), which fits Detroit’s 5.1% scheme-driven explosives (84th).
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Short yardage favors Detroit’s defense. Lions stop 58.8% of third-and-short tries (97th), a drive-killer trait.
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Finishing drives is mixed. Tampa’s long-drive efficiency is 94.4% (91st), but red-zone TD rate sits at 47.4% (31st). Detroit’s defense also allows TDs in the red zone 66.7% (20th).
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Small-sample caution. Big-play touchdown rate uses 27 plays for TB and 25 for DET, so TD conversion on explosives is volatile week to week.
Betting Insights
Anchor spread: Lions -5.5 (-115). Detroit’s pass rush and short-yard stops match well with Tampa’s injury list, but it’s still within one score.
Anchor total: 53.0 (Over -106 / Under -125). Bucs create explosives, and both defenses allow red-zone TDs at 66.7% (DET D) and 68.8% (TB D). Juice leans to the Under side at this number.
Baker Mayfield Over 243.5 passing yds (-120). Tampa’s 8.4% explosive pass rate faces a thin Lions secondary. Volatile with Mayfield and Evans Questionable.
Jared Goff Over 253.5 passing yds (-119). TB allows explosive passes 8.5%; Detroit’s scheme explosives sit 5.1%. Monitor St. Brown’s status.
Rachaad White Over 22.5 receiving yds (-115). If pressure rises, checkdowns rise. Volatile: White Questionable.
David Montgomery Anytime TD (-149). TB’s defense allows TDs on 68.8% of red-zone trips, which boosts Detroit’s goal-line backs. Price has real juice.
Final Summary
Tampa Bay brings a punchy pass game, even with injuries. The Bucs scheme up explosives and can hit deep if the line holds. Detroit’s pass rush and third-and-short defense can flip that script, especially at home.
The Lions’ secondary depth is a concern, which opens the door for Mayfield if he plays. Detroit can answer through the air too. Tampa has allowed chunk throws, and the Lions rate high in quick-strike drives.
Our anchors reflect the market: Lions -5.5 (-115) and Total 53.0 with a lean toward the Under -125 at this number because of juice and drive-finishing variance. Prop leans that fit the matchup: Mayfield Over 243.5 (-120), Goff Over 253.5 (-119), White Over 22.5 receiving (-115), and Montgomery Anytime TD (-149). Manage risk around all Questionable players and scale units to your tolerance.
Statistical Battle Boards
OffenseDefense| Statistic | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Advantage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Points | 165 | #6 | 142 | #14 | |
| Total Points Per Game | 27.5 | #6 | 23.7 | #18 | |
| Total Touchdowns | 17 | #10 | 18 | #28 | |
| Passing Touchdowns | 12 | #4 | 13 | #27 | |
| Rushing Touchdowns | 5 | #17 | 5 | #17 | 🏈 |
| Other Touchdowns | 0 | #24 | 0 | #18 | |
| Total Kicking Points | 53 | #4 | 34 | #28 | |
| Total Two Point Conversions | 1 | #14 | 0 | #26 | |
| Kick Extra Points | 14 | #10 | 16 | #9 | |
OffenseDefense| Statistic | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Advantage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Passing Yards | 1465 | #7 | 1276 | #17 | |
| Net Passing Yards Per Game | 244 | #7 | 213 | #19 | |
| Passer Rating | 108 | #5 | 97 | #13 | |
| Passing Attempts | 195 | #15 | 188 | #16 | |
| Completions | 129 | #15 | 122 | #20 | |
| Completion Percentage | 66.2 | #18 | 64.9 | #11 | |
| Passing 1st downs | 67 | #14 | 69 | #19 | |
| Passing 1st Down % | 54.9 | #17 | 59.0 | #21 | |
| Longest Pass | 77 | #5 | 64 | #11 | |
| Passing Fumbles Lost | 0 | #28 | 1 | #12 | |
| Receiving Targets | 188 | #13 | 185 | #15 | |
| Receptions | 129 | #15 | 122 | #12 | |
| Receiving Yards After Catch | 820 | #2 | 577 | #10 | |
| YAC Average | 6.4 | #3 | 4.7 | #10 | |
OffenseDefense| Statistic | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Advantage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rushing Yards | 656 | #17 | 573 | #13 | |
| Rushing Yards Per Game | 109 | #20 | 95.5 | #22 | |
| Rushing Attempts | 163 | #11 | 143 | #11 | 🏈 |
| Yards Per Rush Attempt | 4 | #21 | 4 | #23 | |
| Rushing 1st downs | 38 | #16 | 34 | #12 | |
| 20+ Yard Rushing Plays | 2 | #25 | 2 | #22 | |
| Long Rushing | 33 | #19 | 28 | #25 | |
| Rushing Fumbles | 2 | #25 | 2 | #22 | |
| Rushing Fumbles Lost | 1 | #11 | 2 | #6 | |
Game Preview of Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Detroit Lions. Week 7 of 2025 NFL Season
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