NFL Player Props Sunday: Run the Number, Trust the Film , Week 9, November 8, 2026

NFL Week 9 arrives Sunday, November 8, 2026 with 13 games and an injury report that reads like a starting lineup for the wrong team. Concussions, ankles, ribs, ACL returns. The value is not in finding healthy players. It is in finding the right players around the ones who are missing. These 52 props cover the full slate. Each one is backed by the numbers. Let them work.

Travis Kelce Over 49.5 Receiving Yards - New York Jets at Kansas City Chiefs

The Kansas City Chiefs get the New York Jets at Arrowhead and nothing has changed about what Travis Kelce does to this secondary. Five career games against New York, 419 receiving yards total, 84 yards per game, five touchdowns. His 2026 season average is 58.6 receiving yards per game, comfortably above 49.5. His ankle cleared to full practice Friday.

Kansas City is a 9.5-point favorite and game script will keep things structured, but Kelce operates as the check-down safety valve and red zone priority regardless of score. The career edge is 5 of 5 against this opponent. That is the number that matters most when every other number already points the same direction.

Braelon Allen Anytime Touchdown - New York Jets at Kansas City Chiefs

The model gives Allen a 43.5% TD probability. The market has him at 27.4% implied at +265. That 16-point gap is the largest edge on the entire board this week. Allen has been the workhorse back for the Jets over the past five weeks and projects to retain a meaningful role including goal-line packages even with Breece Hall back. Hall is coming off a quad injury and has averaged 54.3 rush yards per game across just 3 games in 2026 at 3.2 yards per carry.

That carry distribution and goal-line role does not automatically shift back to Hall the moment he returns. Allen earned his opportunities. At +265, the market is significantly underestimating a player with standalone TD probability north of 40 percent. Take the plus money.

Kenneth Walker III Over 99.5 Rushing Yards - New York Jets at Kansas City Chiefs

Walker averages 110.0 rush yards per game in 2026 on 5.5 yards per carry. His mean output clears this line. The Jets interior defensive line is compromised with Peter Woods and Omarr Norman-Lott both ruled out, which elevates Walker's ceiling on inside zone runs. Kansas City's offense averages 134.1 rush yards per game in 2026, and with a 9.5-point spread, game script points toward clock-killing runs in the fourth quarter.

His last five games include 69, 36, 128, 177, and 70 yards. Three of five cleared 99.5. The two misses came in games where the Chiefs did not need to run. This is a game where they will need to run. At +106, there is genuine value on a player whose 2026 average already beats this line.

Omar Cooper Jr. Over 59.5 Receiving Yards - New York Jets at Kansas City Chiefs

Garrett Wilson is out with a concussion and Cooper moves to the top of the Jets depth chart. His two most recent featured games produced 115 and 103 receiving yards. His season average sits at 62.0 yards per game across four games, with his target share set to rise substantially as Wilson's vacated routes fall to him. Kansas City is a 9.5-point favorite, which forces Geno Smith to throw from behind for most of the afternoon.

Trailing game scripts mean volume, and Cooper is the first option that volume goes to. At +138, the market is treating him like a secondary option. He is not a secondary option Sunday. He is the primary option. His two best games went 115 and 103. This line is 59.5.

Malik Willis Under 224.5 Passing Yards - Detroit Lions at Miami Dolphins

Willis averages 181.1 passing yards per game in 2026. His season high appears to be 211 yards. He has cleared 224.5 in just one of his last ten tracked games. That is a 90% under rate against a line priced at around 70% implied. The Detroit Lions plan a run-heavy approach to counter Miami's escalating pressure rate, which shortened possession time limits Willis's volume structurally.

Miami's pressure rate has climbed from 39.5% to 48.1% over the last three games. Shorter possessions mean fewer attempts. Fewer attempts mean fewer yards. The math is simple, the film confirms it, and the season average at 181.1 yards tells you everything. The juice at -233 is steep but the 90% historical rate earns it.

Sam LaPorta Anytime Touchdown - Detroit Lions at Miami Dolphins

LaPorta averages 4.4 receptions and 52.4 yards per game with 3 touchdowns in 7 games this season. He has 6 red zone targets. The Miami Dolphins have been exploited repeatedly by tight ends this season, with Hockenson, Kittle at 80 yards and 1 TD, and Kelce at 59 yards and 1 TD among seven tight ends to victimize them. LaPorta fits the profile exactly.

The model puts him at 39.5% TD probability against the market's 34.2% implied at +192. Detroit is favored to win comfortably, meaning red zone trips are plentiful. That 6-target red zone count on a 7-game sample puts LaPorta in scoring position often enough for this price to represent real value.

Malik Willis Anytime Touchdown - Detroit Lions at Miami Dolphins

Even in a game where Willis's passing volume is suppressed, his dual-threat role keeps his touchdown floor alive. He has 3 rushing touchdowns on 36 carries in 2026. His rushing yards 32.5 prop has gone over in 6 of his last 10 games. Detroit's pass rush will force scrambles, and Miami's offense under pressure incorporates designed quarterback runs as a staple.

The model gives Willis a 37.7% TD probability versus the market's implied 30.8% at +225. That gap is real money at a plus number. The under on his passing yards does not preclude a rushing score. These two Willis props work together, not against each other.

Greg Dulcich Over 35.5 Receiving Yards - Detroit Lions at Miami Dolphins

Dulcich averages 36.6 receiving yards per game this season and has posted back-to-back strong outputs of 43 and 86 yards. Miami will be in catch-up mode against a Lions team favored to control the game, which inflates target share for second-tier pass catchers. Dulcich draws 19% of Willis's targets and has cleared 35.5 in 7 of his last 10 games.

Miami's secondary has consistently allowed tight ends to operate in intermediate zones this season. At -115, the price is fair given the 70% historical hit rate. This is a volume play backed by both game script and usage data.

Ja'Marr Chase Anytime Touchdown - Cincinnati Bengals at Atlanta Falcons

Chase has scored in 7 of his last 10 games. He has 6 touchdowns in 7 games this season. His hit rate against Atlanta in a career meeting is 1 of 1. The market implies just 52.9% at -112 while his actual scoring rate over the last 10 games exceeds 70%. That gap does not make sense against a player averaging 70.3 receiving yards per game in 2026 with 22 red zone targets.

Joe Burrow averages 302.1 passing yards and 2.9 touchdowns per game this season at a 111.6 passer rating. Cincinnati projects as a comfortable favorite in this neutral-site game. Comfortable leads mean the passing game stays on the field. Chase on the field means red zone opportunities. At -112, this is as close to justified chalk as this slate offers.

Tee Higgins Over 79.5 Receiving Yards - Cincinnati Bengals at Atlanta Falcons

Higgins averages 103.7 receiving yards per game in 2026. His season-to-date average is 24 yards above this line. His most recent two meaningful outings produced 155 and 148 yards. The +100 line implies a 50% probability on a player whose data profile supports a significantly higher rate. Burrow's 73.0% completion rate and consistent volume feed both receivers throughout each game.

Atlanta's secondary gets a Bengals passing attack clicking at a 111.6 passer rating. Michael Penix Jr. is coming off the worst start of his career, 4 interceptions and 8 of 24 passing, and game script does not project Atlanta building the kind of lead that would take Higgins off the field. At even money, this is straight value on the best receiver average on this side of the ball.

Chase Brown Over 49.5 Rushing Yards - Cincinnati Bengals at Atlanta Falcons

Brown has cleared this line in 7 of his last 10 games and 13 of his last 20. His 2026 season average is 48.6 rush yards per game, putting him right at the line. The market implies 52% at -108 while the broader historical rate is 70%. Cincinnati projects as a solid favorite and game script supports running to close games in the fourth quarter. Brown has 11 red zone targets and his usage in short-yardage situations keeps his floor high.

The honest note here is that his last three games showed softer outputs, which is why confidence sits at MEDIUM. But at -108 against a team Cincinnati should beat by multiple scores, closing-game run volume is real. The 70% historical rate earns the MEDIUM tag without dismissing the bet.

Bijan Robinson Under 79.5 Rushing Yards - Cincinnati Bengals at Atlanta Falcons

Robinson has gone under 79.5 rushing yards in three of his last five games. The market is offering +138 on the under, implying only 42% probability. Essentially a coin flip the market is pricing toward the over. Cincinnati's defense has 23 sacks and has held opponents to 22.6 points per game in 2026. The Bengals project to lead throughout this game.

Trailing teams run less. That is a football truth that does not require a film session to confirm. When Penix is behind in the fourth quarter throwing to catch up, Robinson's late-game volume disappears. BJ Robinson is listed out with a hamstring injury, so there is no competition for carries, but those carries dry up in a catch-up script. Plus money on a player in a losing game environment. Take it.

Jonathan Taylor Over 65.5 Rushing Yards - Dallas Cowboys at Indianapolis Colts

Taylor averages 76.3 rush yards per game in 2026 and was a full practice participant this week. He has cleared this line in 7 of his last 10 games and went over in his only career meeting with Dallas. His 2026 mark of 76.3 yards per game clears 65.5 on average. The Cowboys are 4.5-point road favorites, which means Indianapolis needs to establish tempo early and protect Daniel Jones from obvious passing situations. Taylor early is how that gets done.

The model gives Taylor a 54.0% TD probability, further confirming the volume expectation. This is a straight workload play with a favorable game script supporting early carries. The 7 of 10 hit rate and the 1 of 1 against this exact opponent at this line makes it HIGH confidence at -119.

Daniel Jones Under 207.5 Passing Yards - Dallas Cowboys at Indianapolis Colts

Jones averages 192.8 passing yards per game in 2026 with a 68.7 passer rating and 9 interceptions. His career average in 9 games against Dallas is 176 yards per game, well below this line, and he has cleared 249.5 passing yards just once in those nine career meetings. He has gone under this line in 6 of his last 10 games this season.

Quinnen Williams has 4 sacks over the last three weeks and enters this game with momentum against an interior that has struggled to protect Jones. Dallas as 4.5-point road favorites suggests the Cowboys' defense will be dictating terms for large portions of this game. The career average of 176 yards per game against this opponent is the clearest data point here. At -120, the under earns the MEDIUM tag.

George Pickens Over 59.5 Receiving Yards - Dallas Cowboys at Indianapolis Colts

Pickens averages 66.6 receiving yards per game in 2026 and has cleared 59.5 in 5 of his last 10 outings. The news indicates Pickens projects for increased target share in Week 9. Indianapolis's secondary is depleted with CB Walley out with a knee injury and S Haulcy listed as questionable, creating soft coverage assignments for Pickens to operate against.

The model also gives him a 31.3% TD probability, suggesting red zone opportunities alongside the volume. At +104, this is plus money on a player whose season average already beats the line. Depleted cornerbacks against an ascending Pickens with a larger projected role is the film argument. The number supports it.

Ryan Flournoy Under 42.5 Receiving Yards - Dallas Cowboys at Indianapolis Colts

Flournoy has gone under this line in 7 of his last 10 games. His season average is 42.8 receiving yards per game, right at the line, but his last five games show three of five coming in under. His 13% target share and 0.29 WOPR rank him well below CeeDee Lamb and Pickens in the passing hierarchy. With Pickens projected for a larger share of targets, the distribution moves away from Flournoy.

His recent line shows real variance at 38, 70, 40, 90, and 37 yards. The 90-yard and 70-yard games are outlier performances rather than a sustainable floor. In a game script where Dallas controls the ball and Pickens commands targets, Flournoy stays below 42.5 more often than the market reflects. At -118, the 70% historical rate supports the price.

Tyler Shough Over 231.5 Passing Yards - Cleveland Browns at New Orleans Saints

Shough has cleared this line in 8 of his last 10 games. His 2026 season average is 245.9 passing yards per game. Four of his last five starts produced 250 or more yards. This game is played indoors at the Superdome, which eliminates weather as a suppressor entirely. The matchup is as clean as it gets for a volume passing performance.

Even with an under lean on the total, Shough's pass volume has been consistent regardless of game script. His 8 of 10 hit rate is the dominant signal. The Saints are favored at home against a Browns offense making its first start with Shedeur Sanders, which projects New Orleans controlling the game and Shough operating comfortably in the second half. At -118, this is straightforward.

Chris Olave Over 69.5 Receiving Yards - Cleveland Browns at New Orleans Saints

Olave averages 90.9 receiving yards per game in 2026 with a 27% target share. He has posted 40 or more receiving yards in five consecutive games. His WOPR of 0.70 marks him as the clear WR1 for New Orleans, and his 15 red zone targets this season confirm he sees the field in all game scripts, not just favorable ones. His season average beats this line by more than 20 yards.

Olave has cleared 69.5 in 7 of his last 10 games and 11 of his last 20. The 70% hit rate against a line set well below his seasonal output is the full case. Cleveland's offense with Sanders starting is an unknown, which could make this a game that stays close and keeps the Saints passing attack active late. At -122, the volume is durable enough to make this price correct.

Chris Olave Anytime Touchdown - Cleveland Browns at New Orleans Saints

Olave leads the Saints with 15 red zone targets and 5 red zone touchdowns in 2026. He has scored in 5 of his last 10 games. The model gives him a 39.2% TD probability at +186, against the market's implied 35.0%. That gap is real money on a player who has demonstrated consistent scoring presence all season and commands the highest volume in the Saints' passing game.

New Orleans projects as a home favorite against a first-time starter in Sanders. Home favorites in controlled game scripts reach the red zone regularly. Olave is the receiver who converts those red zone trips. At +186, the plus money edge makes this a worthwhile companion to his receiving yards over.

Quinshon Judkins Under 59.5 Rushing Yards - Cleveland Browns at New Orleans Saints

Judkins averages 48.9 rush yards per game in 2026 and has cleared 59.5 in just 2 of his last 10 games. His most recent five games produced 25, 96, 44, 53, and 70 yards. Only two of those five exceeded the line. The Browns rank 24th in rushing at 97.6 yards per game and their overall offensive inefficiency makes a Judkins burst to 60 or more yards the exception, not the rule.

Sanders making his first start of the season adds offensive uncertainty that could shorten early drives and limit structured run-game commitment. The home Saints defense is not the place to generate a 60-plus yard game as a first-time road starter's supporting back. At +104, the under offers plus money on a player whose average is already 11 yards below this line.

Saquon Barkley Over 54.5 Rushing Yards - New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles

Barkley is 3 of 3 against the Giants at this exact line, averaging 128 rush yards per game in those three meetings with a best of 176 yards. With Joe Milton making his first NFL start and Philadelphia missing both DeVonta Smith and Dontayvion Wicks from the receiver room, the Eagles figure to establish the run early and lean on Barkley as Milton's security blanket. The game plan writes itself.

Barkley's 2026 average of 45.7 rush yards per game is lower, but the opponent-specific career data at 128 yards per game in three meetings is the override. At -116, the 3 of 3 career mark against this opponent at this line is the strongest available evidence on the board for this game. First-time starter, depleted weapons, run-first offense.

Malik Nabers Over 70.5 Receiving Yards - New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles

Nabers averages 86.4 receiving yards per game in 2026 and is on a four-game streak of 100-plus receiving yards, posting 111, 165, 121, and 112 yards in that run. Philadelphia's secondary enters Sunday missing Jonathan Jones and Michael Carter II, both ruled out. That is both starting cornerbacks unavailable. What remains are backup corners in one-on-one situations against a player who has been the most consistent receiver on this slate over the past month.

His career mark against Philadelphia is 0 of 2, which is the documented risk factor. Current form and the depleted secondary are the override. With Cam Skattebo listed as doubtful, New York's offense leans toward the passing game and Nabers is the first option in that plan. At -116, dominant recent form against a compromised coverage unit earns the MEDIUM tag.

Milton Under 199.5 Passing Yards - New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles

This is Milton's first NFL start. His tracked history shows he has cleared 199.5 passing yards in just 1 of his last 5 games. His only career meeting against New York produced 73 yards on 7 of 13 passing. The Eagles' active receiving corps is reduced to Lemon, Cooper, Hollywood Brown, and Elijah Moore after Smith and Wicks are both ruled out. That is not a group capable of generating 200-plus yards of passing offense against a healthy Giants defense.

The game total at 38.5 and Philadelphia's projected score suggest a low-volume passing day. New York's 2026 defense has 9 sacks and 6 interceptions, and first-time starters rarely survive clean pocket situations against experienced pass rushers. The market leans under at -154 and all available data points the same direction.

Isaiah Likely Over 4.5 Receptions - New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles

Likely leads the Giants with 5.9 receptions per game in 2026 and 64 total targets this season, commanding a 26% target share over his last five games. He went over 4.5 in his only career game against Philadelphia. With Skattebo doubtful, New York loses their primary ball-carrier and J.J. McCarthy will need to distribute through the passing game to generate yards and first downs.

Likely's 11 third-down targets this season confirm his role as a chain-mover. At -130, this is a volume bet on the most-used pass catcher on the Giants' roster in a game that projects toward higher pass volume for New York. Five-plus catches is a reasonable floor for a player averaging 5.9 per game.

Kyren Williams Anytime Touchdown - Los Angeles Rams at Washington Commanders

Williams has scored in 8 of his last 10 games and 5 of his last 5 appearances. He has 14 red zone targets and 6 touchdowns in 2026 on 68.5 rush yards per game. Los Angeles is a 4.5-point road favorite projected to win by 6 to 7 points, which means clock-killing runs late and goal-line work for Williams. He has posted 40-plus rushing yards in five straight games.

At -128, the implied probability is 56.2%. His historical hit rate is 80% over the last 10 games. That is a significant gap. Williams is the type of back who shows up in the box score when his team is winning. The Rams are projected to be winning. This is the clearest anytime TD play on the board.

Puka Nacua Anytime Touchdown - Los Angeles Rams at Washington Commanders

Nacua has scored an anytime TD in 7 of his last 10 games, averaging 94.2 receiving yards per game with 9.3 receptions per game in 2026. He has 21 red zone targets and 6 touchdowns, running 21% of his routes into the red zone. Washington's secondary is severely depleted with Jaylen Watson out for the season and Trent McDuffie listed as questionable. Those are their top two corners.

At -109, the implied probability is 52.1% against a 70% historical hit rate. That is an overlay. Nacua operates in space against the best coverage, and without the Commanders' top two corners healthy, that space gets larger. He is on a five-game streak of 62-plus receiving yards, confirming sustained usage at the volume level needed to generate TD opportunities.

Matthew Stafford Over 246.5 Passing Yards - Los Angeles Rams at Washington Commanders

Stafford averages 268.3 passing yards per game in 2026 and has gone over 246.5 in 6 of his last 10 games. His career average against Washington is 273 yards per game, and he has cleared 246.5 in 4 of 6 career meetings. Treylon Burks and Dyami Brown are both ruled out for Washington, which shifts their secondary's coverage responsibilities and creates mismatches for Nacua and Tyler Higbee. Stafford's deep rate at 24% and his efficient short-right attack generate consistent yardage.

Even if game script tilts run-heavy late, Stafford will reach this line in the first three quarters. His 268.3-yard average this season is 22 yards above the number. At -116, this is a volume play backed by both career and 2026 current form against an opponent that just lost its two primary wide receivers.

Jayden Daniels Under 211.5 Passing Yards - Los Angeles Rams at Washington Commanders

Daniels averages 195.2 passing yards per game in 2026 and has cleared 211.5 in just 3 of his last 10 games. He has cleared 250 passing yards only once in his last 5 tracked games. Washington's receiver room after the Burks and Brown rulings is down to Stefon Diggs and Antonio Williams as functional options. That limits route diversity and reliable downfield targets in a material way.

Los Angeles is a 4.5-point favorite. Trailing game scripts force scramble passing rather than sustained drives, keeping Daniels' volume in check. His season average is already 16 yards below this line. At -119, the juice is worth the squeeze given the 70% under rate over his last 10 games.

Bryce Young Over 232.5 Passing Yards - Denver Broncos at Carolina Panthers

Young averages 274.4 passing yards per game in 2026, 42 yards above this line. He has cleared 232.5 in 7 of his last 10 games, and 5 of his last 7 starts went over. His recent outings include 209, 163, 281, 329, and 291 yards, with five of seven clearing the number. Carolina is listed at +2.5, meaning they may trail and pass to stay in the game, which further supports volume.

Even in an under-leaning game, Young's pass volume has been consistent. The 7 of 10 hit rate against a line set well below his season average is the full argument. At -118, this lines up with the data.

Tetairoa McMillan Over 61.5 Receiving Yards - Denver Broncos at Carolina Panthers

McMillan averages 81.3 receiving yards per game in 2026 with a 26% target share and 66 targets in 7 games. He is the clear alpha receiver in Carolina's passing game with a WOPR of 0.62. He has cleared 61.5 in 6 of his last 10 games and is on a streak of 40-plus yards in four straight games. With Young projecting to generate passing volume above 232.5 yards per game, McMillan's floor remains high regardless of game script.

At -116, the market is pricing this at around 54% implied. His hit rate of 60% over the last 10 games provides edge, and his season average of 81.3 yards gives you a comfortable cushion above 61.5. This is a straightforward target-share play on the most-targeted receiver in this offense.

Bo Nix Under 224.5 Passing Yards - Denver Broncos at Carolina Panthers

Nix averages 186.6 passing yards per game in 2026. He has cleared 224.5 in just 2 of his last 10 games. His most recent five games produced 222, 222, 107, 123, and 214 yards. Only the two 222-yard games cleared the line, and barely. Denver runs the ball to close out games with a 6-2 record. When Nix is ahead, the carries go to the running back and his attempts dry up.

He has surpassed 250 passing yards just once all season. The statistical case for the under is straightforward. At -192, the juice is steep, but the 80% under rate over his last 10 games justifies the price on a player whose mean output is 38 yards below this line.

Evan Engram Under 19.5 Receiving Yards - Denver Broncos at Carolina Panthers

Engram averages 17.0 receiving yards per game in 2026. He has gone over 19.5 in just 2 of his last 10 games, an 80% under rate against a line priced at 59% implied. His last five games produced 0, 2, 13, 55, and 6 yards. Only the 55-yard outlier clears the line in that stretch. His target share sits at 12% with a 0.27 WOPR and declining snap percentage.

This is a usage story. Engram's role in Denver's offense has shrunk. The 55-yard game is an outlier that inflates his season average above his actual floor. In a game where Denver projects to run the ball and control the clock, Engram's limited target share produces outcomes well below 19.5 yards more often than not. At -144, the 80% historical rate earns the price.

C.J. Stroud Over 242.5 Passing Yards - Houston Texans at Los Angeles Chargers

Stroud averages 266.7 passing yards per game in 2026 and is a perfect 2 of 2 all-time against the Chargers in this category. His career average against Los Angeles is 263 yards per game. The Chargers' secondary enters Sunday missing Deane Leonard and Kendall Williamson, both ruled out. That reduces their coverage depth in a game Stroud has historically handled well.

Los Angeles has not scored a touchdown in 27 consecutive drives this season. Houston projects to be ahead for most of this game, but Stroud's floor in positive game scripts has been consistently above 242.5 yards. The near-even price at -118 against a 2 of 2 career mark and a 266.7 season average is a clean MEDIUM confidence play.

Justin Herbert Over 195.5 Passing Yards - Houston Texans at Los Angeles Chargers

Herbert is 4 of 4 all-time against Houston at this line, averaging 288 passing yards per game in those four meetings. Los Angeles is a 6-point home underdog and 0-7 on the season. Herbert will be throwing from behind for most of this game, which boosts volume. His 2026 season average is 199.7 passing yards per game, just above this modest line.

The key risk is Los Angeles's historically broken offense, which could limit drives regardless of volume intent. But the 4 of 4 career mark against this exact opponent at this line is the dominant signal. At -119, this is a volume play backed by the strongest available opponent-specific data point in this matchup.

Ladd McConkey Under 44.5 Receiving Yards - Houston Texans at Los Angeles Chargers

McConkey has gone under 44.5 receiving yards in 7 of his last 10 games. His most recent five outings produced 86, 17, 0, 66, and 35 yards. Three of five came in well under the line. His target share sits at 11% this season with 25 targets in 6 games, and Los Angeles has not scored a touchdown in 27 consecutive drives, limiting McConkey's access to high-leverage targets in scoring situations.

His snap percentage swings wildly from game to game, but volatile usage does not produce reliable volume. With the offense in a historically broken state, McConkey's ceiling is capped below what this line requires. At -115, the 70% under rate is enough to make this play on a player who simply does not see enough volume to consistently clear 44.5 yards.

Quentin Johnston Anytime Touchdown - Houston Texans at Los Angeles Chargers

This is a low-confidence value play driven entirely by model-versus-market discrepancy. The model assigns Johnston a 25.5% TD probability against the market's 20.0% implied at +400. That 5.5 percentage-point gap at massive plus money generates expected value. Johnston is the Chargers' primary deep threat, averaging 33.7 receiving yards per game in 2026, and Los Angeles will be in comeback mode for most of the afternoon.

His historical TD hit rate is low at 1 of his last 10 games, and his career mark against Houston shows no touchdowns in 2 games. This is flagged LOW confidence. It is a small-bet value play based on the model edge over implied probability at +400. Do not overweight it. The other Chargers plays take priority.

Josh Jacobs Under 20.5 Receiving Yards - Green Bay Packers at New England Patriots

Jacobs has gone over 20.5 receiving yards in just 2 of his last 10 games. He is 0 of 3 all-time against New England at this exact line. His career average against the Patriots is 18.8 receiving yards per game. That 0 of 3 career mark against this opponent is the strongest available opponent-specific evidence on the board for this prop. He has never cleared this line in three career games against New England.

His 2026 average of 34.0 yards per game is inflated by one outlier 55-yard game in Week 7. Remove that game and his average falls well below 20.5. Under a low total and in a game where Green Bay's run game averaging 60.6 rush yards per game forces Jordan Love to pass, the check-down volume that generates receiving yards for running backs is reduced. At -116, HIGH confidence backed by perfect opponent-specific data.

Tucker Kraft Anytime Touchdown - Green Bay Packers at New England Patriots

Kraft is the sole tight end after Josh Whyle was ruled out. His red zone role elevates without competition. He has 12 red zone targets and 5 touchdowns this season, with an 88% snap rate and an 18% target share confirming his volume baseline. He has scored in 4 of his last 10 games, including 3 of his last 5. The model gives him a 30.5% TD probability against the market's implied 27.4% at +265.

That model edge at plus money is real value. Without Whyle available, New England cannot game-plan away from Kraft in the red zone. He runs short right 52% of the time in a zone where their defense concedes red zone catches. At +265, this is a MEDIUM confidence TD prop backed by both the model edge and the usage elevation from Whyle's absence.

Drake Maye Anytime Touchdown - Green Bay Packers at New England Patriots

Maye has 3 rushing touchdowns in 2026 and has scored anytime in back-to-back games against Miami and Chicago. With TreVeyon Henderson ruled out, the Patriots may lean on Maye for short-yardage designed runs near the goal line. His dual-threat usage under coach Vrabel has been consistent all season, and 46 carries on the year confirm it is not incidental.

The model gives him a 26.5% TD probability versus the market's implied 22.2% at +350. That is a meaningful positive edge at a significant plus number. The back-to-back scoring games and Henderson's absence make Sunday the right spot to have this exposure. At +350, you do not need him to score often for this to be profitable over time.

Jordan Love Over 268.5 Passing Yards - Green Bay Packers at New England Patriots

Love averages 280.8 passing yards per game in 2026 and has cleared 268.5 in 7 of his last 10 games. His last five games produced 288, 274, 276, 367, and 197 yards. Four of five cleared 274. Green Bay's run game averages 60.6 rush yards per game on 2.9 yards per carry, the worst in the NFL. Love will carry this offense through the air. That is not a projection. It is an operational reality confirmed by eight weeks of data.

Micah Parsons is listed as ruled out for New England's defense, reducing their pass rush disruption. Cold weather creates a mild headwind, which is why this sits at MEDIUM rather than HIGH. But Love's volume is structural, not situational. His 280.8 average is above the line, and four of his last five starts cleared 274. At -118, this price reflects the right lean.

Baker Mayfield Under 208.5 Passing Yards - Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Chicago Bears

Mayfield averages 135.8 passing yards per game in 2026. That number is 73 yards below this line. Tampa Bay won 16-0 last week without completing a pass. Their offense has become one of the most run-dominant units in the NFL, and Bucky Irving at 91.0 rush yards per game on 5.0 yards per carry is the reason. This is not an offense that generates 208-plus passing yards against anybody.

The game is at Soldier Field in 40-degree weather. Chicago has the third-ranked run defense in the NFL and added Jeffery Simmons to reinforce it. Mayfield will be under constant pressure and limited to short completions in a game where his offense cannot sustain drives. His season average at 135.8 yards is so far below this line that the under has been correct in 6 of his last 10 games. The film and the numbers both say the same thing. HIGH confidence.

Caleb Williams Over 246.5 Passing Yards - Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Chicago Bears

Williams averages 253.4 passing yards per game in 2026 at a 104.6 passer rating. He has cleared 246.5 in 8 of his last 10 games and 11 of his last 20. His last five outings produced 247, 308, 305, 138, and 269 yards. Three of five are clear overs. Chicago is favored by approximately 7 points at home in primetime, projecting a comfortable offensive environment with Williams operating from a position of strength.

Luther Burden III averages 68.4 receiving yards per game in 2026 and Colston Loveland is on a three-game receiving streak of 65, 69, and 65 yards. Williams has the weapons to exceed this line in primetime. MEDIUM confidence rather than HIGH given the under lean on the total, but his 253.4 average and 8 of 10 hit rate make this the right side of the number.

Colston Loveland Anytime Touchdown - Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Chicago Bears

Loveland has 16 red zone targets and 4 touchdowns this season. He is riding a three-game receiving streak of 65, 69, and 65 yards and recorded TDs in Weeks 6 and 7. Williams targets him on 26% of his snaps, making Loveland the primary red zone weapon in this offense. The Bears project to score around 27 points at home in primetime. That scoring volume produces multiple red zone trips.

The model assigns a 38.1% TD probability against the market's implied 35.5% at +182. That gap, combined with 16 red zone targets on a team scoring at a high rate, makes this a strong value play. At +182, you are getting paid above even money on a player with one of the highest red zone usage rates on the team. MEDIUM confidence with real model edge.

D'Andre Swift Over 0.5 Rushing Touchdowns - Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Chicago Bears

Swift has scored in 5 straight games and 6 of his last 10, carrying the league-leading 10th rushing touchdown of 2026. He has 545 rush yards in 2026 at 68.1 per game with 10 total touchdowns in 8 games. The model puts him at 52.8% TD probability and his rushing TD over at -105 offers thin but real value over the market price. The Bears project as 71% win probability favorites at home.

Favored teams run to close games. Swift at 49 carries over the last two weeks is the workhorse. That usage, that touchdown rate, in a game Chicago is projected to control from the second half onward. At -105, this is about as close to even money as you will find on a player in this form. MEDIUM confidence given the heavy utilization load heading into a bye week.

Kirk Cousins Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns - Las Vegas Raiders at San Francisco 49ers

Cousins averages 2.375 passing touchdowns per game in 2026, 19 touchdowns in 8 games. He has cleared 1.5 TDs in 7 of his last 10 games. His career mark against San Francisco is 4 of 5 at this line, with 9 total touchdowns in those 5 career meetings at 1.8 per game. San Francisco's secondary is compromised with Nate Hobbs on IR and Siran Neal and Upton Stout both questionable.

Las Vegas projects to trail per the spread, pushing Cousins toward higher passing volume and red zone attempts. The 7 of 10 current rate and the 4 of 5 career rate against this opponent at this exact line is the HIGH confidence case. At -119, this is the strongest TD prop on the board and the most reliable source of a multiple-score passing performance on this slate.

Ashton Jeanty Over 30.5 Receiving Yards - Las Vegas Raiders at San Francisco 49ers

Jeanty averages 47.0 receiving yards per game in 2026 and has cleared 30.5 in all five of his most recent games, posting 64, 61, 36, 50, and 68 yards. His 17% target share and 12 third-down targets confirm his role as Cousins' primary checkdown option. Even if San Francisco's run defense limits his rushing output, his receiving role is insulated from that pressure and operates on a separate track entirely.

Trailing game scripts that push Cousins to pass also increase Jeanty's target count. His receiving yards and his touchdown probability both benefit from the same game environment. At -122, the 70% hit rate over last 20 games supports the price on a player who has not gone under this line in five straight games.

Brock Purdy Over 16.5 Rushing Yards - Las Vegas Raiders at San Francisco 49ers

Purdy averages 23.0 rushing yards per game in 2026 on 32 carries in 7 games. He has cleared 16.5 in 8 of his last 10 games. With three starting wideouts unavailable, Evans, Samuel, and Kirk all out, Purdy will face greater coverage pressure and will rely on scramble opportunities to extend plays. San Francisco's system historically uses scramble opportunities as a release valve when routes are disrupted.

The 8 of 10 hit rate is the second-strongest in this game's data set. His season average of 23.0 yards is comfortable above 16.5. The lone caution is a 0 of 1 career mark against this specific opponent, but that is a one-game sample that does not outweigh the broader pattern. At -115, this is a volume play with strong hit-rate backing.

Jalen Nailor Under 18.5 Receiving Yards - Las Vegas Raiders at San Francisco 49ers

Nailor averages just 16.1 receiving yards per game in 2026. His last five games produced 38, 14, 9, 16, and 9 yards. Four of five came in under 18.5. He holds only a 12% target share, well below Brock Bowers' 26% and well below Tre Tucker's presence in the passing game. Even in a trailing game script that boosts overall passing volume, the target distribution strongly favors Bowers and Tucker over Nailor.

His ceiling is capped by usage, not matchup. San Francisco's secondary being compromised does not help a player who does not receive enough targets to generate yards consistently. At -120, the 60% under rate over his last 10 games supports the price on a player whose season average is already under the line.

Trey McBride Over 6.5 Receptions - Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks

McBride has gone over 6.5 receptions in 10 of his last 10 games. That is a perfect hit rate. His last five game logs produced 7, 10, 7, 9, and 7 receptions. He averages 8.2 receptions per game in 2026 with a 26% target share and 95-plus percent snap rate. Arizona projects to trail throughout. Seattle is a 77.6% win probability favorite, which pushes Gardner Minshew to his primary checkdown early and often throughout the afternoon.

His career mark against Seattle is 5 of 8 at this line, and Arizona's offensive line is depleted with Williams and Gaines II both ruled out. Shorter routes and checkdowns feed McBride in precisely the situations Arizona will face Sunday. At -127, the 10 of 10 recent hit rate makes this the strongest empirical case on the entire board. This is the best play of the slate.

Smith-Njigba Over 91.5 Receiving Yards - Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks

Smith-Njigba averages 123.1 receiving yards per game in 2026 with a 34% target share. He has cleared 91.5 in 8 of his last 10 games. His most recent four games produced 118, 150, 134, and 102 yards, four consecutive 100-plus yard performances. His career line against Arizona is 7 games at 80 yards per game, including 155 yards and 3 touchdowns in the most recent meeting on September 20, 2026.

Even with Drew Lock starting in place of the injured Sam Darnold, Smith-Njigba's 89 targets in 8 games demonstrate a volume that is quarterback-independent. Arizona does not have the coverage personnel to stop him in one-on-one situations. At -119, this is HIGH confidence backed by dominant recent form and the strongest available game-specific history. This is a showcase game for the best receiver on this slate.

Emanuel Wilson Anytime Touchdown - Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks

The model assigns Wilson a 32.2% TD probability against a market implied probability of just 8.7% at +1049. That 23.5 percentage-point gap is the largest model-versus-market discrepancy on the entire board. With Zach Charbonnet in his first game back from ACL surgery after posting just 6 carries and 23 yards in Week 8, Wilson projects to absorb significant goal-line and red zone carries for Seattle. The Seahawks are a 77.6% win probability favorite projecting multiple scoring opportunities.

At +1049, this is a small-bet value play that does not need to hit often to be profitable. The model's edge of 23.5 percentage points is not marginal. It is structural. Wilson is the goal-line back in a game Seattle projects to win comfortably. He only needs to find the end zone once. At four figures, this price is severely wrong if the model is right.

Tyler Allgeier Under 39.5 Rushing Yards - Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks

Allgeier has cleared 39.5 rushing yards against Seattle zero times in four career meetings, averaging just 26 rush yards per game against them. His most recent meeting on September 20, 2026 produced 5 carries for 10 yards. Arizona's offensive line is severely compromised with Jayden Williams and Jon Gaines II both ruled out, exposing Allgeier to a Seattle defensive front that has 18 sacks in 2026. That is a bad matchup made significantly worse by missing both a left tackle and a right guard.

Game script compounds everything. Arizona projects to trail heavily in this game, which shifts their offense toward the air and limits Allgeier's carry volume. At +108, this is plus money on a player who has never cleared this line against this opponent in four career tries. The 0 of 4 career mark, the depleted offensive line, and the trailing game script align completely. Take the plus money.