Arsenal's form at home is elite. Three straight wins, three consecutive clean sheets, and just 0.8 goals conceded per game. Burnley's away form is catastrophic. They've scored 0.8 goals per game on the road and kept zero clean sheets in five away matches. Our Score Predictor has this at Arsenal 2.4, Burnley 0.1. That might actually be generous to the Clarets. The xG gulf is 2.3 goals, meaning the data sees this as a near-total mismatch.

What makes Arsenal's dominance inevitable is the tactical structure. Arsenal press aggressively (PPDA 9.5, meaning they force turnovers quickly). Burnley are passive on the road (PPDA 14.6), meaning they won't pressure the ball and will sit deep. That's a recipe for sustained Arsenal attacks and early goals. Burnley manager Mike Jackson told reporters this week, "You look at a game like that and the importance of it to everyone in the competition, but from our point of view, you have to look at it as an opportunity." That's the mindset of a side already relegated in this final Premier League fixture. They're looking for anything positive in the wreckage.

Arsenal's home xGA is 0.81 per game. Burnley's away xGA is 2.42 per game. That gap tells the real story.

• Arsenal's high press (9.5 PPDA) will disrupt Burnley's build-up immediately. Early goal expected as Arsenal's aggressive triggers force mistakes and create clear chances within 30 minutes.
• Clean sheet is the primary defensive angle. Arsenal have three consecutive home shutouts. Burnley have zero in five away matches. BTTS No is structurally sound given Arsenal's defensive control and Burnley's 0.1 projected xG.
• Set pieces drive Arsenal's secondary goals. Arsenal average 9.6 deep completions at home while Burnley allow 9.4. Repeated wing play and Arsenal's corner generation will compound the xG gap into scoring opportunities.
• Burnley's foul-dependent rearguard accumulates cards in desperation. Mejbri averages 0.65 yellows per 90. Laurent 0.42 per 90. Referee Paul Tierney cards at 3.5 per match. Multiple cautions incoming from a chasing side.
• Arsenal likely eases off after establishing a 2-0 lead, especially late in the season when squad rotation concerns mount. This suppresses the Over 3.5 line, making 2-0 or 3-0 more probable than 4-plus goals.
• Burnley's only path to a goal requires counter-attack luck and defensive solidity. Neither stat supports this. Their away xG of 0.98 per game and recent L5 form (0W-0D-2L away) confirms they're outmatched in every area.

The best angle is BTTS No at -179. Arsenal's aggressive press forms a systematic defense that Burnley cannot penetrate with just 0.1 projected xG. I also respect Under 3.5 at +102 because Arsenal historically ease off once ahead, especially late in a title-chasing season. A 2-0 scoreline has the weight of the data, the tactics, and the form. Anything beyond 3-0 requires Arsenal to maintain relentless intensity throughout, which isn't their pattern.

The caveat: Set pieces and desperation fouls inject variance. If Burnley score, it's from a corner or transition, not sustained play. Our model allocates them 0.1 xG. That's a shutout prediction. But this is the EPL, where one mistake erases a clean sheet. Still, the evidence overwhelmingly favors Arsenal's structure. For more final-day analysis, check our Premier League picks today and our BTTS picks.