With Carvalho, Janelt, Henry, and Hickey all out, Thiago channels virtually all Brentford offensive output at 0.70 xG/90 and 2.4 shots/90. At -139, this is the only HIGH-confidence play on the card — any Brentford goal is overwhelmingly likely to run through him.

Wolverhampton +1.5 Asian Handicap at -185: Sharp contrarian fade of heavily marketed Brentford favorite (-161, 61.7% implied). Wolves beat Villa and Liverpool back-to-back with André restored. At -185, covers any draw or Wolves win. Brentford's 0W-1D-1L home form plus six injury absences make comfortable multi-goal win structurally unlikely.

Under 2.5 Goals at +124: Our model projects exactly 2.5 total goals. The Under at +124 is undervalued given structural suppression. Brentford's deep completions averaged 4.0 in last blank, Wolves average 2.6 per game last five. Low-event match decided by set piece or individual error.

Both Teams to Score: No at +110: Wolves rank last in league xG at 0.93 per game. Market (47.6% implied) undervalues clean-sheet angle. Brentford's flank absences (Henry, Hickey out) weaken open-play creativity. Collins and Van den Berg remain disciplined centrally. One team will fail to score.

Over 3.5 Cards at -120: Attwell leads league in card frequency (4.8 per match, rank 1 of 18). Wolves commit 13.3 fouls per game, highest in this fixture. Physical midfield duel with João Gomes (2.2 fouls per 90, 9 yellows in 28 apps) and Yerson Mosquera (0.55 yellows per 90) guarantees card accumulation.

Draw at +340: Model (22.5%) and market (22.7%) nearly align, but form dynamics, Brentford's 0W-1D-1L home collapse, Wolves' organized low-block (PPDA 13.0), André returning from suspension, create stalemate conditions. December H2H showed 0.3 xG margin masked by 2-0 scoreline. Wolves can deny Brentford when compact.