Premier League Picks Today: Expert EPL Best Bets & Predictions – November 8, 2026

Pascal Groß Anytime Assist @ +240 — HIGH confidence. Groß has four assists in nine appearances, a rate of 0.44 per appearance. He takes every significant dead ball at Brighton: corners, direct free-kicks, and penalties. With Mitoma and Ferguson absent, his set-piece delivery volume increases. +240 implies approximately 29.4% probability. A 0.44 per appearance rate outpaces that number clearly, even accounting for the low-scoring game environment. This is the pick with the clearest gap between the implied market probability and the statistical rate. I am comfortable defending it.

Liverpool to Win (ML) @ -159. This is the structural anchor of the whole card. Crystal Palace are 19th, have scored three goals in their last five league games, and their two most dangerous attackers are both unavailable. Liverpool are the away side at 61.1% win probability, and that number aligns exactly with the -159 market price. No value gap, but no inflated line either. Even in mediocre form on the road, Liverpool's quality through Wirtz, Isak, and Barcola is simply too much for the Premier League's most offensively dysfunctional side right now. Back the away team.

Both Teams to Score: Yes @ -182 (HIGH confidence) — Both Teams to Score, or BTTS, means each team must put at least one goal on the scoresheet for this bet to win. This is the highest-confidence pick in the match. United have conceded in every one of their last five games, averaging 1.6 goals against per match, and they now deploy an untested center-back pairing without Martinez, Shaw, or Baleba. Villa have scored in all five games of their unbeaten run, averaging 1.8 goals per match, with a perfect 2W-0D-0L away record in that stretch. The market implies 64.5% probability. That feels conservative given the cumulative defensive injury picture on United's end. The edge is demonstrable.

Boubacar Kamara to Be Carded @ +240 (HIGH confidence) — Kamara fouls at 2.2 per 90, the highest rate among outfield players in this fixture. He has started all nine of Villa's league games, logging 793 minutes, so he will have full 90-minute exposure to Kavanagh's whistle. Villa commit 11.4 fouls per game as a team, and Kamara accounts for a disproportionate share. He will face United's Tielemans-Mainoo pivot directly, a midfield that moves quickly and invites the type of physical contest Kamara plays. The market prices him at +240, implying only 29.4% probability. For a player at his foul rate, against this referee, in this physical and high-stakes context, that is an undervaluation. This is the clearest player prop on the board.

Cole Palmer, Anytime Goalscorer at +190. Palmer is Chelsea's primary penalty taker. He leads the squad with six big chances this season, averages 0.89 shots on target per appearance, and has three goals from nine starts. In a match where both teams are expected to score and Chelsea are generating sustained pressure in Sunderland's box, Palmer is the most bankable individual scoring route available. Sunderland have conceded one of their three penalties this season in home matches, and Palmer's direct running and set-piece delivery into that exact zone makes the +190 (34.5% implied) look fair at worst. High confidence.

Sasa Lukic to be carded (+148, HIGH): The market's own favourite for a card at +148 (40.3% implied). Lukic posts 2.6 fouls per 90, the highest rate on the Ipswich squad. Coming back after a month out with a groin injury, his timing in the challenge will lag his instincts early in the game, and Simon Hooper will not miss it. This is the strongest individual player prop on the board for this fixture.