Premier League Player Props: Best EPL Prop Picks Today

Sunday's Premier League fixtures bring five matches and a prop sheet loaded with structural value the markets simply haven't caught up to yet. Twenty picks across five market types. Injury chaos has reshuffled roles, referee tendencies are screaming at us from the data, and there are three HIGH confidence plays I want to get to straight away. Let's go through it market by market.

Cards

Boubacar Kamara — To Be Carded (+240) | Aston Villa vs Manchester United — HIGH

This is my second-favorite card play on the entire slate. Kamara plays every minute for Aston Villa — nine starts, 791 minutes, no rotation — and our tracking data has him at 2.2 fouls committed per 90 minutes. That is the highest rate among all outfield players appearing in this fixture. Referee Kavanagh is on the whistle here and averages 4.5 cards per match, the third-highest rate in the league. Villa as a team commit 11.4 fouls per game and Kamara sits at the center of that, winning the ball through aggression rather than positioning. Against a Manchester United midfield that moves quickly and draws contact from physical challenges, he will be tested early and often. The market at +240 implies about 29%. Our data puts the true probability materially higher given his fouling rate, the referee, and the physical midfield battle this fixture will inevitably deliver.

João Gomes — To Be Carded (+184) | Aston Villa vs Manchester United — MEDIUM

Gomes is Aston Villa's most aggressive ball-winner in central midfield. Our numbers show him at 1.8 fouls committed per 90 and 3.2 tackles per 90 — a profile that gets you noticed under a card-happy official. He has started five of six appearances and faces a United midfield under enormous pressure to control tempo while protecting a vulnerable back line. With our model projecting over 4.5 cards in this contest and Kavanagh averaging 4.28 yellows per game across the season, physical midfielders like Gomes become prime targets for early cautions. The head-to-head tension of Villa against a United side fighting relegation will add edge to what is already a physical contest. At +184 — implying just over 35% — this is the best-priced card on the board relative to the underlying foul profile.

Sasa Lukic — To Be Carded (+148) | AFC Bournemouth vs Ipswich Town — HIGH

This is my top card play of the day. Lukic is returning from a month-long groin absence and carries the highest fouls-committed rate on the Ipswich roster at 2.6 per 90. That fouling profile is structural — it comes from how he plays, not from individual match situations. Referee Simon Hooper averages 4.12 cards per match, the seventh-highest rate in the league, and our model has backed over 4.5 cards in this exact game. The market's own pricing reflects the consensus: at +148, Lukic is the market favorite for a card in this contest. And I agree with it. The question is whether +148 represents value — and it does, because his fouling rate and Hooper's tendencies combine in a way the market only partially prices. As Gary O'Neil said ahead of this fixture: "It sounds like a difficult challenge. I think they've obviously found a good way at the moment. They have excellent players." A game framed around that level of physical respect from the manager will be contested hard in midfield, right where Lukic operates.

Anan Khalaili — To Be Carded (+350) | Liverpool vs Crystal Palace — MEDIUM

Khalaili is Crystal Palace's most aggressive ball-winner. Our data has him at 3.8 tackles per 90 — the highest on the squad — with 2 yellows collected across 9 appearances, a rate of 0.22 per game. He is a consistent starter and will face the full force of a Liverpool side our model projects to chase an equaliser deep into the second half. That is the most dangerous scenario for a defensive midfielder in terms of card risk: sustained pressure, repeat fouling, last-ditch challenges protecting a lead. Referee Tony Harrington averages 3.38 cards per match and our model backs over 3.5 cards in this contest. The +350 price implies just over 22% — Khalaili isn't fouling at the extreme rates of a Kamara or Lukic, so the genuine uncertainty is real. But the defensive context tips this into value territory. I'll take a measured position here.

Morgan Rogers — To Be Carded (+340) | Chelsea vs Sunderland — MEDIUM

Rogers leads Chelsea starters with the highest yellow card rate on the squad: 3 yellows in 9 appearances, 0.33 per game. His fouls-committed rate sits at 1.1 per 90, which by itself isn't alarming, but the combination of card-drawing frequency and his role as a driving winger creates a specific risk profile. Our model projects Chelsea chasing the game in the second half, and a winger under pressure to create in a losing position is a winger making desperate challenges. Referee Gillett averages 3.86 cards per match. At +340 — implying only 22.7% — the market is undervaluing a player who has been carded once every three games this season.

Shots on Target

Marcus Tavernier — Over 0.5 SOT (-192) | AFC Bournemouth vs Ipswich Town — MEDIUM

Tavernier is the most reliable shot-generating threat from wide in this entire fixture. Thirteen shots on target in nine appearances works out to 1.44 per game — the highest rate of any outfield player in this contest. Run that through a Poisson distribution at 1.44 and you land on roughly 76% probability of at least one shot on target in a full game. The market implies about 66% at -192. That 10-point gap is structural, not noise. He holds first-choice corner and direct free-kick duties for Bournemouth, which means he generates additional shot opportunities from dead balls beyond open play. He has created 5 big chances this season. Even in a game our model projects Bournemouth to lose without scoring, Tavernier consistently puts his attempts on frame. The scoreline will not change that.

Alexander Isak — Over 1.5 SOT (-109) | Liverpool vs Crystal Palace — MEDIUM

Isak's shot-on-target numbers are the strongest evidence for this play: 9 shots on target across 8 appearances, 1.12 per game. That is the best rate among any player confirmed to start in this fixture. He is Liverpool's second penalty taker and the focal point of their attack. The tricky part of this pick is the defensive context — our data shows Crystal Palace concede only 3.4 shots on target per match as a team, one of the lower figures in the league, which keeps this MEDIUM rather than HIGH. But Isak's volume is generated through intelligent movement that doesn't depend entirely on team patterns. As Liverpool manager Andoni Iraola acknowledged this week: "One week ago we were on a run, everything was in a good place and we were in a better mood. Now, after two defeats it changes and it has to be like this in clubs like ours." A Liverpool side carrying that emotional weight and desperate for a response will push Isak into attacking situations repeatedly. The -109 line represents value for a player running above a shot on target per game.

Pedro Lomba Neto — Over 1.5 SOT (+470) | Chelsea vs Sunderland — MEDIUM

Neto leads Chelsea's entire squad in shots on target per appearance: 1.33 per game, 12 total across 9 appearances. Our analysis of that rate suggests a roughly 50% empirical probability of hitting the 1.5 threshold in any given match. The market at +470 — implying only 17.5% — has dramatically mispriced this. Chelsea generate 5.9 shots on target per match as a team. With both teams projected to score, Chelsea's attack will be active throughout. Neto is a confirmed starter who has been Xabi Alonso's most reliable shot-creator this season. I've watched this Chelsea side build pressure through wide areas and Neto is consistently the man delivering volume from that right channel. The price here is simply wrong for the volume evidence.

Assists

Pascal Groß — Anytime Assist (+240) | Brentford vs Brighton & Hove Albion — HIGH

Four assists in nine appearances. That is a rate of 0.44 per game — the highest on Brighton & Hove Albion's squad and among the best rates in the league at his position. Seven big chances created, top of the team. First penalty taker, first corner taker, first direct free-kick taker. When Brighton win a dead ball — which they do often; they have scored 7 set-piece goals this season, one of the highest returns in the league — the ball is at Groß's feet. Brighton head coach Fabian Hürzeler confirmed he is "hopeful that Chema Andrés will return to the squad," which hints at ongoing squad management, but nothing about that changes what Groß does. Mitoma is out. Ferguson is out. Tzimas has been out for weeks. At 35 years old, Groß is shouldering the creative burden of this entire attack, and he has been doing it effectively all season. The +240 market implies less than 30% probability for a player running at 44%. I've watched enough of this Brighton side to know that when their attack gets depleted like this, Groß does not shrink — he expands. This is my highest-confidence assist play on the slate.

Maxim De Cuyper — Anytime Assist (+260) | Brentford vs Brighton & Hove Albion — LOW

De Cuyper is embedded in this Brighton team as the overlapping left-back — 9 starts, fully entrenched in the XI. He has 3 assists in those 9 appearances, a rate of 0.33 per game, and is the second corner taker and second indirect free-kick delivery option behind Groß. The +260 price implies about 28% and his seasonal rate runs at 33%. There is positive value in those numbers. I am rating this LOW, and I want to be honest about why: our model projects under 2.5 goals in this game. That low ceiling on scoring events reduces the number of opportunities for a secondary set-piece option to collect. He is the right player in the right role, but the game context caps his ceiling. Play this only if you are comfortable with the goal-limited environment.

Bruno Fernandes — Anytime Assist (+138) | Aston Villa vs Manchester United — MEDIUM

Fernandes is first for corners, indirect free kicks, and penalty taking for Manchester United. That is maximum set-piece exposure in a fixture our model projects to generate 3 or more goals — both teams expected to score with a medium probability on over 2.5 goals total. Every United dead-ball situation runs through him. He has 1 assist and 2 big chances created across 8 appearances, and in a high-scoring game with penalty-taking duties, his structural advantage over other assist candidates in this match is significant. Set pieces decide more matches than people give them credit for, and in a fixture this physically intense — Villa pressing high, United's defensive line creaking — there will be dead balls. Lots of them. Fernandes will take them all. The +138 price at 42% implied is fair value for the volume of involvement he will see.

Enzo Le Fée — Anytime Assist (+540) | Chelsea vs Sunderland — MEDIUM

This is a structural play, full stop. With Habib Diarra ruled out for six weeks, Le Fée has inherited first penalty-taking duties for Sunderland. He also holds first corner and first indirect free-kick delivery for the side — a triple set-piece role in a game where our model projects Sunderland to score. He has created 4 big chances across 9 starts and brings 1.3 dribbles per 90 as an active carrier in central areas. At +540 — implying just 15.6% — the market has not adjusted for the fact that Le Fée is now the most structurally important player on Sunderland's set-piece sheet. If Sunderland find the net, there is a real chance Le Fée touched the ball before it went in. The price is generous enough to make this a worthwhile medium position.

Fouls

Vitaly Janelt — Over 1.5 Fouls (+178) | Brentford vs Brighton & Hove Albion — MEDIUM

Janelt plays a combative press-midfielder role for Brentford — 1.6 fouls committed per 90 and 3.0 tackles per 90 across 8 starts at 720 minutes. Those are the numbers of a player who gets his hands dirty every game. Running his 1.6 fouls per 90 through a Poisson model gives roughly 47.5% probability of committing 2 or more fouls, while the market implies only 36% at +178. That 11.5-point gap is meaningful. And the game context amplifies it: if Brighton take the lead as our model projects, Brentford will chase in the second half, pushing Janelt into increased pressing situations that drive his foul count upward. This is a pick that gets better if the game goes the way our model expects.

Florian Wirtz — Over 1.5 Fouls (+174) | Liverpool vs Crystal Palace — MEDIUM

Wirtz commits fouls at 2.2 per 90 — the highest rate among Liverpool's projected starting lineup. He holds first direct free-kick and second corner-taking duties, which puts him in the kind of confrontational positions that generate fouls from the first whistle. Our model projects Crystal Palace to win this contest, which means Liverpool will spend a significant portion of this game in a chasing role — pressing high, fouling to disrupt transition, repeatedly contesting Crystal Palace's distribution. That chasing workload amplifies his natural fouling tendency. At +174 — implying 36.5% — the market is underpricing a player whose seasonal rate puts his true probability materially higher in this defensive context.

Tyler Adams — Over 1.5 Fouls (-118) | AFC Bournemouth vs Ipswich Town — MEDIUM

Adams is Bournemouth's most active ball-winner in midfield — 2.1 fouls per 90 across 7 starts (637 minutes in 9 appearances). That rate produces a Poisson probability of roughly 62% for 2 or more fouls in a full game. The market sits at -118, implying about 54%. That 8-point gap is real and sustainable. Ipswich are projected to control possession in a predicted home win, which forces Adams into repeated pressing situations from the first whistle. Bournemouth as a team concede 13.3 fouls per match — a structure that channels defensive contact through central midfielders like Adams. Even at negative odds, this represents genuine edge. Gary O'Neil also confirmed: "They are an established Premier League team now, there's no doubt about that, you see the amount of changes they were able to make and still name a strong team." Adams pressing against that quality all afternoon will show up in the foul count.

Goalscorers

Cole Palmer — Anytime Goalscorer (+190) | Chelsea vs Sunderland — HIGH

I will be direct: Cole Palmer is my best bet on the entire Sunday slate. He is Chelsea's first penalty taker. He leads the squad with 6 big chances. He has 3 goals from 9 starts and an average of 0.89 shots on target per appearance. Our model projects both teams to score in this match, which means Chelsea will find the net — and Palmer is their most reliable route to doing so. Sunderland have conceded first in 7 of their 9 league matches and have never taken a half-time lead all season. Chelsea arrive fourth in the table knowing they need this result to protect their position. Nine of Chelsea's 19 season goals came in the opening five minutes of a half — a stat that tells you this team likes to start fast and start sharp. Palmer will be central to that early pressure. And Sunderland have already conceded 1 of their 3 penalties this season — in a game where Chelsea's attack is piling on, the penalty route is live. At +190 — 34.5% implied — this is fair value with significant upside given the penalty-taker premium.

Charalampos Kostoulas — Anytime Goalscorer (+168) | Brentford vs Brighton & Hove Albion — MEDIUM

When Mitoma goes out and Ferguson goes out and Tzimas has been out for weeks, someone has to carry Brighton's attack. That player is Kostoulas. Three goals in 9 appearances, 8 shots on target across those games — 0.89 per appearance. He is Brighton's most direct runner with 1.5 dribbles per 90, and he has been elevated to the primary attacking role by sheer absence of alternatives. Our model projects a Brighton win with BTTS: No, meaning the most probable outcome is a single-goal Brighton victory. Kostoulas is the likeliest finisher in that scenario. The market prices this at +168 — implying 37.3% — as fair value for a player now carrying the entire attacking load. I agree with that assessment, and I think that price is correct. Back it.

Jorgen Strand Larsen — Anytime Goalscorer (+230) | Liverpool vs Crystal Palace — MEDIUM

Strand Larsen steps into Crystal Palace's primary striker role with Jean-Philippe Mateta serving a 3-match suspension and Ismaila Sarr injured. He is confirmed available for approximately 60 to 75 minutes — enough time to register a goal in a match our model projects Crystal Palace to win. As Crystal Palace manager Pierre Sage said ahead of this fixture: "I'm not in a good position to comment. I have to be respectful with this club. They lost against Arsenal and Fenerbahce. Every game is different and we have to create a good condition from the beginning." That is a manager building the right mindset for a road result, and Strand Larsen is the man he needs to deliver it. He has started five of seven appearances when fit and is a confirmed first-choice starter in this setup. At +230 — implying 30.3% — he represents the clearest route to a Palace goal in a match the committee projects them to win.

Julio Enciso — Anytime Goalscorer (+300) | AFC Bournemouth vs Ipswich Town — MEDIUM

Enciso is Ipswich's most dangerous second-line threat: 1.0 shots on target per appearance (9 total in 9 starts), 5 big chances, 2 goals and 2 assists on the season, and 2.2 dribbles per 90 that make him the team's most direct creator between the lines. With Emersonn having gone scoreless in his last 5 league games, our analyst committee has identified Enciso as Ipswich's clearest route to goal in a match our model projects them to win at home. He is confirmed in the starting lineup in a 4-2-3-1 and brings genuine goal threat from deep positions that make him harder to track than a traditional striker. The +300 price implies 25% probability; our analysis of his shot volume and big chances places his realistic hit rate in the 22 to 24% range — close to fair value with upside given the projected scoreline. If Ipswich find the net at home today, Enciso is the player I want involved.

Bryan Mbeumo — Anytime Goalscorer (+194) | Aston Villa vs Manchester United — MEDIUM

Manchester United sit in the relegation zone with a makeshift defense and a striker crisis that has pushed Mbeumo into the undisputed focal point of their attack. Rashford is out with a hip injury, Sesko is out until January, and Mbeumo — with 4 goals, 12 shots on target in 9 appearances (1.33 per game), and 4 big chances created this season — is the man United need to perform. He is United's second penalty taker behind Fernandes, adding a structural goalscoring route in a game our model projects to see both teams score. I've watched Mbeumo this season and he is performing above what his market price suggests. The elevation to undisputed focal point in a must-perform fixture for a club desperate to climb the table is exactly the context in which a player of his quality steps up. Old Trafford will roar for a goal. At +194 — implying 34% — the market hasn't fully priced his role as the last attacking option standing.