Premier League Player Props: Best EPL Prop Picks Sunday, May 24
Today's Props
3.4 shots/90 and 1.13 SOT per appearance elite striker volume in dominant home win setup.
0.52 xA/90 and 4.0 key passes/90 leads to assist in projected multi-goal home victory.
0.31 yellows/90 highest among Man Utd midfielders in open game with physical play.
0.69 yellows/90 double any other player listed in tight, attritional draw scenario.
1.0 SOT per appearance elite conversion; focal Palace striker in away victory setup.
0.19 yellows/90 highest among Newcastle midfielders under sustained Fulham pressure.
0.47 yellows/90 highest among all outfielders; physical central midfielder with card-happy referee.
1.0 SOT per appearance elite striker consistency; focal attacking threat in home win setup.
0.40 yellows/90 highest among Chelsea midfielders; box-to-box disruptor in physical draw.
0.71 SOT per appearance highest among Everton attackers; focal forward in home win setup.
0.97 SOT per appearance best rate in dataset; 2.4 shots/90 with full attacking mandate.
0.38 yellows/90 highest booking rate in entire dataset; aggressive midfielder in high-intensity match.
0.26 yellows/90; physical target striker battling compact Wolves back line in physical match.
3.0 shots/90 highest shot rate in dataset; primary striker generating volume at home.
0.27 yellows/90 highest among Palace outfielders; aggressive right back in defensive duels.
0.84 SOT per appearance and 2.9 shots/90 elite creative winger volume even in rotation.
1.5 key passes/90 and 0.23 xA/90; creative midfield hub in predicted Palace goal-scoring move.
2.9 shots/90 and 0.63 xG/90 highest values in dataset; prolific attacking output in BTTS setup.
2.1 key passes/90 highest in dataset with 4 assists in 23 games; prime assist setup in high-scoring away win.
0.23 yellows/90; high-energy pressing midfielder with increased card risk in chase scenario.
1.16 SOT per appearance highest striker volume in match; focal point of Brentford home attack.
2.9 shots/90 and 0.60 SOT per appearance; elite shot volume even in predicted defeat.
0.86 SOT per appearance active in Villa attack; benefits from predicted home control.
0.32 yellows/90 highest among Villa players; aggressive pressing style elevates card risk.
0.27 yellows/90; physically combative right back against City attacking width.
0.86 SOT per appearance and 2.4 shots/90; strongest shot-creation in match; central to Forest attack.
0.70 SOT per appearance and 2.2 shots/90; right back active in attacking phases in open match.
0.42 yellows/90 highest booking rate among these players; defensive midfielder in competitive match.
0.27 yellows/90 highest among Sunderland outfielders; right back exposed to Chelsea width.
0.89 SOT per appearance and 2.1 shots/90; most active shooter from Chelsea midfield.
2.9 shots/90 and 0.88 SOT per appearance elite No.10 volume; push for winner keeps Palmer active.
0.84 SOT per appearance and 2.9 shots/90 elite forward volume in open match.
7 assists in 37 games and 0.16 xA/90; creative midfielder in home multi-goal setup.
0.18 yellows/90; box-to-box midfielder in high-stakes survival battle with increased aggression.
0.21 yellows/90 highest among West Ham outfielders; wide attacker exposed to defensive tracking.
2.3 key passes/90 highest among Leeds players; deep-lying creative link in possession-control setup.
0.23 xA/90 and 1.1 KP/90 creative output gives assist pathway in high-scoring setup.
Analysis
Sunday's Premier League card is a 10-match roller coaster. I've watched enough of this league to know which matchups expose individual players to cards, which strikers are due for shot volume, and where the creative passes flow from. The committee has given me 35 picks across cards, shots on target, and assists. Let me walk you through what I'm seeing.
Cards
This is where the day gets spicy. I'm backing 15 different players to see yellow. Hannibal Mejbri at +260 is my favorite outlier here. Look at his 0.69 yellows per 90 minutes. That is not a typo. Double any other player on this slate. He's a combative Burnley central midfielder in the tightest, most attritional match of the week against Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Burnley. In a match where both teams are fighting for their lives and every tackle matters, Mejbri lives on a yellow-card knife's edge.
Vitaly Janelt at Brentford is another outlier. 0.47 yellows per 90 is elite booking rate, and Darren England is a card-happy referee. A physical central midfielder pressing Liverpool in what I believe is a tight Brentford home win. This is exactly where cards cluster.
I'm also leaning on Moisés Caicedo at Chelsea (+230) against Chelsea vs Sunderland. Caicedo sits at 0.40 yellows per 90, highest among Chelsea's midfielders. Box-to-box disruptors in draw scenarios, where both sides are pressing for a winner, accumulate fouls. That's the pattern.
Diego Gómez of Brighton (+275) checks another box. 0.38 yellows per 90 is the highest booking rate in the entire dataset we're working with. Brighton & Hove Albion's aggressive central midfielder will be tasked with disrupting Manchester United's creative play. In a match where BTTS and Over 2.5 goals are expected, the tempo and intensity will be high. High tempo equals more fouls, more cards.
Casemiro at Manchester United (+190) rounds out my most confident card angles. 0.31 yellows per 90 among Man Utd midfielders, defensive holder facing a Brighton side with real attacking threat. I've watched him play for years. He fouls when under pressure. This is pressure.
Shots on Target
Benjamin Sesko over 1.5 SOT at +200 is a HIGH confidence play I'm stacking. Look at the numbers. 3.4 shots per 90. 1.13 shots on target per appearance. 0.69 xG per 90. Elite striker volume across the board. The committee is backing a Manchester United home win with BTTS and Over 2.5 goals. Sesko is the focal point of their attack. In a multi-goal home victory, your striker touches the ball 40+ times. He's hitting 1.5+ SOT with ease.
Dominic Calvert-Lewin over 0.5 SOT at -164 against Leeds United vs West Ham United is a lock. I cannot stress this enough: 0.97 SOT per appearance is the best rate in the dataset. 34 shots on target in just 34 games. That's a striker who is consistently putting the ball on frame. West Ham in survival mode will sit deep. A target man like Calvert-Lewin thrives against deep blocks. I expect him to record at least one on target, probably more.
Tolu Arokodare at Wolverhampton over 1.5 SOT (+210) is my second-favorite shot angle. 3.0 shots per 90 is the highest shot volume of any player on this slate. Wolverhampton Wanderers are home against Burnley in a projected draw. Arokodare will fire. The volume is there. Clearing 1.5 is his floor, not a ceiling.
Morgan Gibbs-White over 1.5 SOT at +540 is underpriced. I'm not usually this outspoken, but 0.86 SOT per appearance in a match where Nottingham Forest are predicted to win away with BTTS and Over 2.5 goals is genuine value. The market is disrespecting a winger who averages 2.4 shots per 90. In a high-scoring setup, he's hitting 2+ SOT.
Jean-Mateta over 0.5 SOT at -200 for Crystal Palace is a counter-pick on a team I don't love. But Mateta is a 2.5 shots/90 striker with 1.0 SOT per appearance. That's consistency. Palace are predicted to win away at a rotating Arsenal. Their striker will get chances. He'll register at least one on target.
Cole Palmer over 1.5 SOT at +178 against Sunderland is interesting. 2.9 shots per 90 from a No.10 is elite volume. Even in a draw scenario, Chelsea will push for a winner in the second half. Palmer's role keeps him active. 1.5+ SOT is realistic across 90 minutes.
I'm also backing William Osula over 1.5 SOT at +154 for Newcastle. 2.9 shots per 90 and 0.63 xG per 90 are the highest values in the Newcastle United vs Fulham matchup. BTTS and Over 2.5 projected. A striker this dangerous doesn't miss 1.5 SOT opportunities.
Assists
Bruno Fernandes at +210 for Manchester United is a no-brainer. 0.52 xA per 90 and 4.0 key passes per 90. He's already at 20 assists this season. Premier League is talking about him breaking a 20-year-old record. The committee backs a Man Utd home win with BTTS and Over 2.5 goals. Fernandes is the creative hub. In multi-goal victories, your primary passer gets an assist. This is his lane. I've watched him set up goals all season. He's the odds-on favorite on this slate.
Samuel Chukwueze at +470 for Fulham is a creative value play. 2.1 key passes per 90 is the highest rate in the entire dataset. The committee backs Fulham to win away against Newcastle with BTTS and Over 2.5 goals. Multiple Fulham goals means Chukwueze is running the creative show. His assists this season (4 in 23 games) don't reflect his chance-creation volume. In a projected multi-goal away win, he's the most likely creator.
Adam Wharton at +580 for Arsenal vs Crystal Palace is a contrarian angle. 1.5 key passes per 90 and 0.23 xA per 90 for Palace's creative hub. The committee backs a Palace win in a low-scoring game (BTTS No, Under 3.5). One goal by Palace, and Wharton—as their midfield pivot—is the likeliest supply line. 5 assists in 33 games this season. He's a consistent creator in tight matches.
Anton Stach at +390 for Leeds United vs West Ham United rounds out my assists slate. 2.3 key passes per 90 is the highest rate among Leeds players. Deep-lying creative midfielder controlling possession in a projected Leeds home win. If Leeds score (and they're expected to in a 1-0 or 2-0 setup), Stach is touching the ball 60+ times. The probability of him providing an assist is real.
James Garner at +540 for Everton vs Tottenham Hotspur is a Hail Mary if you need it. 0.16 xA per 90 and 1.4 key passes per 90. Everton are backing a home win with Over 2.5 goals. Central midfielder in a high-scoring environment. The payout is generous. The risk is he's a lower-volume creator than my other assist picks, but in 2+ goals scored by Everton, he's got a real pathway.
Best Pick of the Day
If I'm stacking one play, I'm riding with Bruno Fernandes to get an assist. I've watched Manchester United play Brighton five times in my career. I know how this ends. Man Utd control possession early, Brighton break dangerously on transition, it opens up for Man Utd attacks in the 40th-70th minute. Fernandes is touching the ball 70+ times. Over 4.0 key passes per 90, already 20 assists on the season, and the committee's projection is a multi-goal home victory. That's the math. He's getting an assist. The market at +210 is fair value for a player of his creative profile. I'm backing it.
