Liverpool have drawn their last three home matches, the longest such streak at Anfield since 2011. Their home expected goals against figure stands at 2.88 per game in their only Anfield fixture this season, a number that should alarm any Liverpool supporter. They conceded twice in that match and generated just 1.28 xG themselves, well below their away performances. Cody Gakpo is doubtful with adductor issues that kept him out at Atletico Madrid midweek, stripping attacking depth from a side that relies heavily on Alexander Isak. That said, Isak has delivered. Three goals in three league starts, 0.89 xG per 90, and targeting a third consecutive league goal for the first time since January 2025. He is the main event here.

Fulham manager Alvaro Arbeloa played 66 times for Liverpool and faces his former club in the Premier League for the first time as a manager. Easy to dismiss Fulham given the table, but Liverpool manager Andoni Iraola gave them honest credit at his pre-match press conference: "Fulham have looked good and been very in control for all three of their league matches thus far this season...they've just lost them all by a single goal." The numbers back that assessment. Fulham are generating 1.77 xG per game despite losing every match. Their 35 deep completions across three games (11.7 per game) is nearly 2.5 times Liverpool's 4.7 per game at home. That is not the profile of a passive side getting overrun. They have scored in every league fixture this season. Their only away outing produced zero goals in a 0-1 loss at Brentford, but the xG that day was 1.02. They are underperforming their expected goals, not fabricating them.

The key duel on the pitch is Oscar Bobb against Milos Kerkez in Fulham's right channel. Bobb has six key passes in 221 minutes this season and drives Fulham's transition attack. Liverpool will control possession at their usual 61.7% clip and push for corners in volume, but when Fulham win the ball back, Bobb and Antonee Robinson will look to exploit that left channel immediately. Bradley Barcola is fit after coming off as an enforced substitute against Atletico midweek, and with Gakpo doubtful, Florian Wirtz becomes the primary creative conduit for Liverpool at 1.7 xGChain per 90. This looks lopsided on the table but the structural profile of both sides points to an open, goal-at-both-ends type of match.

• Liverpool's home xG this season stands at just 1.28 per game in their only Anfield fixture, with a home xGA of 2.88 per game. They are 0W-1D-0L at Anfield and have conceded in every home match. Three consecutive home draws is the longest such run since 2011.
• Fulham have scored in all three league games this season (four goals total) despite losing each one, generating a genuine 1.77 xG per game backed by 11.7 deep completions per game. That is nearly 2.5 times Liverpool's home rate, and it suggests Fulham's attacking threat is structural rather than accidental.
• Alexander Isak leads Liverpool with 0.89 xG per 90 and has scored in all three league starts. With Gakpo doubtful, Isak is the clear focal point of the attack, with Florian Wirtz as the primary creative engine behind him, posting 1.7 xGChain per 90 this season.
• The corners market is compelling. Liverpool average 12.0 per game on 61.7% possession. Fulham generate 17.0 per game, the highest figure in the early-season dataset. Even with Fulham's away total naturally suppressed compared to their home numbers, the combined profile in a possession-dominant Liverpool home fixture supports volume.
• Referee Thomas Bramall averages 4.1 cards per match (rank 10 in the league, above the 3.8 average) and awards 0.29 penalties per game. Liverpool commit 13.7 fouls per match. With Fulham under relegation pressure, cynical disruption of Liverpool's build-up play is highly likely, and Bramall will respond to it.
• The OddsIndex Score Predictor projects 1.8-0.8 Liverpool with a combined total of exactly 2.5 goals, sitting right on the market over/under line. That creates genuine uncertainty across the goals markets and makes both BTTS Yes and Under 2.5 live propositions, though they are largely incompatible at that projected total.

The scenario that keeps me honest is a tight 1-0 or 2-0 Liverpool win. Fulham have zero away goals this season in their one road trip. If that pattern holds, BTTS disappears and the handicap becomes unnecessary. That is exactly the outcome the Under 2.5 at +192 is targeting, and it is low confidence for a reason, but a blended projection sitting at exactly 2.5 gives it enough structural support for a small contrarian play. The corners and cards markets feel like the clearest angles here regardless of the scoreline. Over 9.5 corners makes sense with or without a high-scoring game given Liverpool's possession profile, and Thomas Bramall is exactly the referee you want when backing Over 3.5 cards in a match with two physically committed sides and relegation pressure in the away dressing room.

For more predictions, check our Premier League picks today and BTTS picks.