The injury situation compounds everything. Mykhaylo Mudryk is out at least six weeks with an ankle injury suffered in training. Dejan Kulusevski, Wilson Odobert, and Xavi Simons are also unavailable. That is four wide attacking options gone simultaneously, which hollows out the exact system De Zerbi depends on. Both full-backs are doubtful on top of that. As De Zerbi said ahead of the match: "Pedro Porro felt a small muscular problem, we have to see tomorrow if he's available or not but in this moment I don't want to take any risks." He offered a similar note on Destiny Udogie, who managed only 60 minutes at Nottingham Forest and requires careful handling. When your system is built on full-back width and you might be missing both of them, the problems do not add up, they multiply.

James Maddison does return from the shoulder fracture he suffered on opening day, and that is genuinely important. He is Spurs' most creative option between the lines, and if he can unlock space in Everton's midfield the picture changes. I want to believe in his return making the difference. But I have watched enough of this Spurs side already to see that creating 3.4 xG across three games and converting none of it is not a run of bad luck. It is a quality-of-chance problem with real lineup explanations behind it.

Everton arrive in a decent position for a visiting side. They are eighth with five points from three games, though it is worth noting they are only four points above the relegation zone themselves in this compressed early table. They are unbeaten, and they have found late winners twice. David Moyes has them organized in a compact 4-5-1 away shape with an away PPDA of 10.3, which means they press with structure and deny space on the ball. Jack Grealish is confirmed fit, adding a creative left-side outlet that could punish a makeshift Spurs right back if Porro is absent. Everton are the team expected to get a result here, and their game plan is coherently built around exactly that outcome.

• Tottenham have generated 3.4 xG in three league games and scored zero times. They have missed all six of their big chances this season. That 0% conversion rate is not just variance, there are lineup reasons behind it, and most of those reasons are still injured or doubtful heading into this fixture.
• Everton's compact away defensive shape, with a PPDA of 10.3 on the road, is specifically designed to strangle possession-based systems. Against a Spurs side already unable to convert chances, that structure becomes near-impenetrable, particularly if Porro and Udogie are both absent and the wide build-up channels are blocked.
• Tottenham average 22.0 corners per game through three outings, the highest figure in this early-season dataset, driven by 58.9% possession and 80.0 box touches per match. Everton's low block forces play to the flanks and generates corner situations for the attacking team. The corner volume will be high regardless of how the scoreline looks.
• Referee Darren England averages 4.4 cards per match, the second-highest rate in the league. Tottenham commit 14.3 fouls per game. A relegation-pressure home side grinding against a compact, physically direct visiting block is exactly the type of game England produces bookings in. Expect cards early and often.
• Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall leads Everton with 9 shots and 8 key passes in 270 minutes, and he is the player most likely to make something happen in transition. If Everton win a second ball in midfield and Dewsbury-Hall drives forward, they have the attacking teeth to punish a disorganized Spurs backline on the break.
• Thierno Barry has generated 2.2 xG in 245 minutes, 0.82 xG per 90, the highest on either side. He has only scored once. The regression in his favor feels overdue, and in a match where Everton are structurally positioned to nick a goal on the counter or from a set piece, Barry is the most dangerous individual on the pitch.

The corner market is the cleanest individual bet on the board. Over 10.5 corners at -118 is structurally supported by Tottenham's system working as designed, even when the goals do not arrive. Set pieces will decide this match if anyone scores at all, and the sheer volume of Spurs' attacking possession will generate corners whether or not they convert them. If you want a risk-adjusted alternative to the draw outright, the Everton Draw No Bet at +174 provides clean exposure without paying for a draw outcome, covering both a draw and an Everton win. As with all betting, there are no guarantees. Variance is part of the game, and no prediction removes risk entirely. Please gamble responsibly. If gambling is causing you problems, contact the National Problem Gambling Helpline at 1-800-522-4700.

For more predictions, check our Premier League picks today and BTTS picks.