• Raiders create explosives through design. Las Vegas ranks first percentile in scheme explosive rate (6.4%) and posts a 10.0% explosive pass rate. That stresses a Titans defense that allows 6.3% explosive passes.

• Titans offense stalls on money downs. Tennessee converts only 31.9% on third down. That invites punts and long fields.

• Red-zone efficiency is a concern for both. LV scores TDs on just 35.7% of red-zone trips, while TEN sits at 44.4%. Expect field goals or fourth-down decisions.

• Protection could swing the game. TEN allows sacks on 9.4% of dropbacks and LV on 8.9%. With Raiders OL injuries and multiple Titans linemen questionable, negative plays loom.

• Run games may be explosive-lite. TEN’s offense generates 1.8% explosive runs (low), while LV’s defense allows only 2.4% explosive runs.

• Tempo lever for Tennessee. The Titans use no-huddle on 9.7% of snaps, a top-20 rate, to help a young QB. Small sample notes: their 100% fourth-down aggression marker comes from just one try.

• Anchor spread: Raiders -5.5 (+114) — plus money on a near-TD margin; LV’s edge is explosive passing and TEN’s poor third downs (31.9%).

• Anchor total: 41.5 — Over -115 / Under -116. Both teams lag in red-zone TD rate (LV 35.7%, TEN 44.4%), which keeps the Under live at fair juice.

• Raiders team total 23.0: Over -123 / Under -116. Explosive pass rate (10.0%) supports the Over, but OL injuries introduce variance.

• Titans team total 17.5: Over -112 / Under -127. TEN’s 31.9% third-down rate argues caution on the Over at this number.

• Geno Smith over 216.5 pass yds (-120): Matches LV’s explosive-pass profile vs TEN’s 6.3% allowed.

• Tre Tucker over 42.5 rec yds (-120): Slots into LV’s 6.4% scheme explosive rate; speed fits the matchup.

• Cam Ward over 193.5 pass yds (-118) if active: Titans’ no-huddle 9.7% can goose attempts. Volatility note: Ward is listed Questionable.

As always, prices carry juice. Player props on anyone Questionable have higher variance; plan your stake size accordingly.

This matchup comes down to finishing drives. The Raiders can strike deep but have sputtered inside the 20. The Titans fight, but third downs and protection keep putting them behind the sticks.

Las Vegas has the cleaner path. Their passing game creates explosives by design, and Tennessee’s run game lacks pop. If the Raiders hold up just enough in protection, they can stack chunk plays and a few short fields.

Tennessee’s upset path is simple. Get Ward cleared and comfortable, win first down, and keep the chains in makeable range. Their defense must force Las Vegas into long drives, where the Raiders’ 61.1% long-drive efficiency lags.

Given the data, the card points to Raiders -5.5 (+114) with a lean to the Under 41.5 at near-even juice. Props favor the passing attacks, but check inactives. If Ward or Ridley sit, Titans overs take a hit.