NFL Odds Week 7 and Picks - Big AFC South Matchup, Giant Game in Jacksonville, and Kansas City Travels to San Francisc

NFL Odds Week 7 - Recommended Picks

• Indianapolis Colts @ Tennessee Titans: Titans -2.5, -107 at PointsBet
• Indianapolis Colts @ Tennessee Titans: Titans to Win by 1-6 points, +310 at BetMGM
• New York Giants @ Jacksonville Jaguars: Giants win, +140 at BetMGM
• New York Giants @ Jacksonville Jaguars: Over 42.5 points, -105 at PointsBet
• Kansas City Chiefs @ San Francisco 49ers: Chiefs -3, -107 at PointsBet
• Kansas City Chiefs @ San Francisco 49ers: Over 48.5 points, -110 at Caesars Sportsbook

NFL Odds Week 7 Expect Rough Sailing

The NFL odds for Week 7 had to feel like a root canal for sportsbooks. The league sees several prominent teams on their bye week. Add in a few injuries, and NFL picks in Week 7 will warrant several further looks and maybe a little second-guessing.

In good news, the Week 7 schedule brings a different kind of heat with several intriguing clashes. Scanning the NFL odds in Week 7, the New York Giants are an underdog on the road in Jacksonville. The AFC South features Tennessee and Jacksonville. Finally, Kansas City travels to San Francisco as both teams attempt to bounce back from a loss. Here are our NFL Week 7 picks.

NFL Picks Week 7 

Colts vs Titans Picks

Indianapolis Colts @ Tennessee Titans: Sunday, October 23 at 1 pm ET on CBS

The AFC South is a puzzling division to figure out. The Colts and Titans have had their moments, yet both are barely treading water. Thankfully, there is some history, and it does not bode overly well for Indianapolis. Tennessee has won the last three meetings, including a 24-17 win at the Colts during Week 4. 

NFL Week 7 odds have one perplexing trend with Tennessee: how the Titans have played at home. 

Data taken from: pro-football-reference.com (Accurate as of 10/18/22) 

The Titans play worse defensively against the run at home but better against the pass, albeit marginally. For those wondering, Derrick Henry is not even averaging 4 yards a carry this season. Part of that is due to the offensive line, but Henry and his workload also plays into it. 

Henry ran the ball 303 times in 2019, 378 times in 2020, and was on his way to more than 400 in 2021 (219 in eight games) before an injury. Workhorse backs break down in this league, and part of his effectiveness waning is because of that workload. Tennessee has difficulty scoring and carries a -22 point differential into this week.

Then there are the Indianapolis Colts. The Colts are 3-2-1 but arguably are playing a team they do not match up well against. Take Week 4, where the Colts kept the game close but could not run the ball. Indianapolis had a mere 38 yards rushing. This goes in direct contrast to Tennessee’s overall numbers at home. AFC South games tend to be close. Also, the Colts have had five of their six games decided by one score. 

All this means we should expect a tight contest in our “Game of the Week”. Our NFL week 7 pick is for Tennesee to squeak by. 

NFL Odds Week 7: Colts vs Titans Predictions

• Titans -2.5, -107 at PointsBet
• Titans to win by 1-6 points, +310 at BetMGM

Giants vs Jaguars Picks 

New York Giants @ Jacksonville Jaguars: Sunday, October 23 at 1 pm ET on FOX

The New York Giants are 5-1 on the young season, and adjustments are a big reason why. Brian Daboll, Don Martindale, and the coaching staff have found ways to find holes in their opponents during the second halves of games. Their +14-point differential is astonishing, but then again it makes sense. That is because every one of their contests has been decided by one score.

The Giants baited Ravens QB Lamar Jackson to beat them with his arm, but he could not. Jackson was held to under 200 yards passing. Despite 211 yards rushing, Baltimore committed two key turnovers, which was the difference. The Jackson fumble led to a Giants score that changed the momentum. Ultimately, New York held on to win another game. 

NFL Week 7 picks are a bit of an adventure here because Saquon Barkley is going up against one stout Jacksonville run defense, but Philadelphia did run for over 200 yards against the Jaguars. New York has the same setup with a mobile quarterback and a dynamic running back. Could something close happen again? It is possible.

With the offensive potential shown in glimpses by both teams early in the season, one of our favorite NFL picks in Week 7 is the over of 42.5. The other is that the Giants can win this game outright. The Jaguars have lost three straight games partially because of their inability to finish games late. New York has won five of six contests because they can. 

NFL Odds Week 7: Giants vs Jaguars Predictions

• Giants win, +140 at PointsBet
• Giants and Jaguars over 42.5 points, -105 at PointsBet

Chiefs vs 49ers Picks

Kansas City Chiefs @ San Francisco 49ers: Sunday, October 23 at 4:25 pm ET on FOX

With each team coming off losses, there is slightly more pressure on the Chiefs to win even at 4-2. There’s extra pressure on them to bounce back as they are on the road against a good defense in San Francisco. Buffalo punched Kansas City in the mouth late last Sunday. Von Miller made three plays in the fourth quarter, including causing an interception that sealed Buffalo’s 24-20 win.

The Chiefs face questions about their defense after yielding 84 points in the past three weeks. It was nice to see Kansas City win two of these three games, but that win over Las Vegas was far closer than it had to be. That came back to bite the Chiefs last week against Buffalo. 

Even though the 49ers struggled as they scored just 14 points in Atlanta last week, expect San Francisco to put up a few more points this week. With both teams’ strong offenses, our NFL Week 7 pick sees this as a higher-scoring game in which the teams will score more touchdowns than settle for field goals. The 49ers’ offense averaged 29.3 points per game per win (two of those games came off losses). Given both teams’ firepower, we’re also leaning toward the overall Over of 48.5 points and the Chiefs to win another high-scoring affair by more than three points.

The likelihood of this being a one-score game with better offensive efforts from both teams is high. After the Week 3 loss to Indianapolis, Kansas City ran a balanced attack that sliced up a pretty good Tampa Bay defense to the tune of 416 yards. Expect this to be more of an up-tempo game that reflects the NFL Week 7 odds.

NFL Odds Week 7: Chiefs vs 49ers Predictions

• Chiefs -3, -107 at PointsBet
• Over 48.5 points, -118 at Caesars Sportsbook

NFL Odds Week 7

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

Which NFL teams have a bye in week 7? 

Four teams have a bye in Week 7 of the NFL season. The Buffalo Bills, Los Angeles Rams, Minnesota Vikings, and Philadelphia Eagles are those teams.

What did we learn during NFL week 6?

Week 6 taught us that the Buffalo Bills are undoubtedly the team to beat in the AFC, as they won at Kansas City in Week 6. We also learned that the NFC East is the best division in the NFL, as the Eagles are now 6-0, the Giants are 5-1, and the Cowboys are 4-2 despite playing without Dak Prescott for the last five weeks.

Which NFL teams are best to bet for in week 7?

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers look like the safest bet to win in Week 7, as they are double-digit favorites over the Carolina Panthers, albeit on the road. The Cowboys, Raiders, Dolphins, and Patriots are good bets to win because they are all favored by at least seven points at home. The Titans can also be considered a good bet because they are 2.5-point favorites over the Colts at home after beating Indianapolis earlier this season and winning four straight head-to-head games with the Colts.

Conclusion

Bye weeks can be very frustrating to the bankroll and the bottom line. These games will be attractive for their significance and the numbers their wagers figure to bring in. It is partly why there is an expectation all three should be relatively close.

Tennessee should hold off Indianapolis and prevent the Colts from winning late. The New York Giants can adjust enough to hold off a young, pesky Jaguars team. Finally, Patrick Mahomes, Andy Reid, and Kansas City can find ways to rebound after tough losses like few teams can – at home or on the road. If you're interested in more football content, be sure to read our guide: How To Bet on American Football, and visit our odds comparison tool to compare the latest NFL Week 7 odds.

Written by Chris Wassel

Chris is an experienced sports betting writer who loves sports irrationally. He has covered everything from NHL to NASCAR to March Madness, including a couple of Stanley Cups, several NHL Drafts, and award shows.   

He is a veteran writer with over 30 years of fantasy hockey experience, contributing to several sports books and countless publications such as USA Today, The Hockey News, and Sportsnet.