The New York Mets counter with Scott, recalled from Triple-A Syracuse on April 22 for his first MLB appearance since undergoing Tommy John surgery last September. His 2026 minor-league line: 0-2, 5.27 ERA across 13.2 innings. That number tells you the command has not fully returned. Post-TJS debuts come with real uncertainty baked in, and Scott figures to be on a strict pitch budget around 75-82 pitches regardless of results. That matters because the Mets' bullpen is in freefall. Williams has surrendered 7 earned runs in 1.1 innings over his last three appearances, walking three and retiring none in Wednesday's game before exiting with the bases loaded. Mendoza acknowledged the depth problem plainly: "We had a couple of our guys down. We knew we were going to push [McLean>. We felt good with where he was at." That is not an encouraging position for a team that may need multiple relievers by the fourth inning tonight.

The Mets enter this series finale at 8-16, having lost 9 of their last 10. Their home record sits at 4-7. Francisco Lindor exited Wednesday's win with left calf tightness and is questionable for tonight. He is the team's best hitter and its defensive cornerstone at shortstop. If he plays limited or not at all, the lineup takes a real step back. Juan Soto also returned from a calf injury Wednesday but left the game after limited action, creating legitimate back-to-back availability questions. Lindor addressed the team's broader struggles directly: "We're all very aware of it, you know. But at the end of the day ... we have to come out and bring it." That is a player who knows his team needs everything to go right tonight.

Byron Buxton is the one piece of genuine momentum heading into this game for Minnesota. He has homered in consecutive nights, going yard in both games of this series on April 21 and April 22. His 5 home runs lead the Twins, and his .980 OPS against right-handed pitching makes him a legitimate threat against any pitcher with early command issues. If Scott exits before the fifth and the Mets burn through a depleted bullpen, Buxton in the middle innings is the highest-leverage offensive matchup in this game. The Twins bring a 5-6 away record into Citi Field after dropping 5 of their last 6. But with Ryan on the hill, they carry the clear starting pitching edge to win this one quietly.

• Joe Ryan is the defining edge in this matchup. His 3.29 ERA, near-zero walk rate (6 BB in 27.1 IP), and 8-strikeout outing against the Mets last April make him a legitimate weapon against a lineup batting .224 with a .622 OPS this season.
• Christian Scott's post-TJS debut introduces real volatility for New York. His 5.27 Triple-A ERA suggests his command has not returned fully. Expect a short outing around 75-82 pitches, handing the game to a bullpen that is both depleted and unreliable at the back end.
• The Lindor and Soto availability questions are the biggest X-factors on the board. If both are limited or absent, the Mets lose their two most dangerous run-creators, and a lineup already scoring just 3.2 runs per game gets significantly thinner.
• Buxton has homered in back-to-back games and carries a .980 OPS against right-handed pitching. He is the one hitter who can change this game by himself, particularly if Scott exits early and Mets relief arms take over.
• Minnesota is 0-for-4 in one-run games this season, and this game projects as a close finish. That track record is material when a tight late-game situation develops, and it underpins the structural logic behind the Mets +1.5 run line.
• Citi Field suppresses both runs (0.96 factor) and home runs (0.92 factor). That environment rewards the starter with better command tonight, and that starter is Ryan, not Scott.

But consider this: the case for the Mets at +106 is not nothing. Ryan's road ERA of 3.86 is a real split, a full half-run worse than his overall 3.29. The Mets won Wednesday, they are at home, and Minnesota is 0-for-4 in one-run games. If Scott manages even four innings and Williams is held out of a tight late game, the Mets have a legitimate path. The Mets +1.5 run line at -176 accounts for exactly that scenario. The straight Twins ML at -114 still represents the cleaner value, but treat both as LOW confidence plays in a game where the margin between outcomes is genuinely thin. No one should be hammering either side here.

The projected finish is a close Twins win, consistent with the under. Ryan works efficiently through a diminished Mets lineup, Scott turns the ball over before the sixth inning, and Minnesota's offense does just enough against the back end of New York's bullpen. It comes down to which relief corps holds together longer. Recent evidence points clearly in one direction. For the full slate, see our MLB picks today, NRFI picks, and player props.