Jake Irvin goes for Washington with a 4.85 ERA and 4 home runs allowed in 29.2 innings. His last start was his best of the year, 5.2 shutout innings with 9 strikeouts against Chicago, but the two outings before that produced 3 earned and 2 earned runs respectively. His track record against Milwaukee is poor. In three meetings spanning 2025 and 2026, he gave up 5 earned in 4 innings in August of last year and 3 earned in 5 innings when they met here on April 10. The Brewers have hit Irvin before and carry real familiarity into this start. William Contreras owns a 1.135 OPS in 21 career plate appearances against Irvin, and the lineup has multiple hitters with exposure to his stuff.

Milwaukee arrives without its best players. Yelich is shelved with a groin strain. Chourio and Vaughn remain on rehab assignments and are not available for this series. Woodruff left a recent start with diminished velocity, and reliever Zerpa is expected to miss a significant stretch with forearm tightness. As Brew Crew Ball noted: "Pitchers Angel Zerpa and Brandon Woodruff both went down this week, as Zerpa is reportedly expected to miss a big chunk of time with forearm tightness." Despite the losses, Milwaukee scored 13 runs in each of their last two wins over Arizona. The offense is running on depth right now, not star power, and it is working.

Washington sits at 3-10 at home, one of the worst marks in baseball at their own park, while going 12-7 on the road. They return tonight from Citi Field and face an environment where they have struggled all season. Their bullpen carries a 5.65 ERA with 8 pitchers on the injured list. Any lead Milwaukee builds past the sixth inning puts pressure on an overworked relief corps. CJ Abrams is the one Nationals hitter who changes the equation. He is hitting .296 with a 1.114 OPS against right-handed pitchers and has 8 home runs this season. If Misiorowski leaves a pitch up, Abrams has the bat speed and power to make him pay.

• Misiorowski has struck out 9, 9, and 5 batters in his last three starts. Every Washington hitter goes into this game cold, with no career plate appearances against him and no film to draw from. That is a meaningful structural advantage for the visiting pitcher.
• Washington is 3-10 at home, among the worst home records in baseball. Their 12-7 road record is strong, but tonight they are the home side, and this pattern has held all season with no signs of reversal.
• The Nationals bullpen carries a 5.65 ERA with 8 pitchers on the IL. Late-inning leads are dangerous to hold with that relief corps. Any Milwaukee advantage entering the seventh becomes a serious conversion risk for Washington.
• Irvin has allowed home runs in 4 of his 29.2 innings and has given up 3 earned runs or more in 2 of his last 3 starts. His track record against this specific Milwaukee lineup includes multiple multi-run outings. He is not a pitcher who survives a hot lineup on command.
• Milwaukee is missing Yelich, Chourio, and Vaughn, its three most dangerous offensive players from a full lineup. The order is compromised at the top. The Brewers are winning with lineup depth right now, not elite power, which raises variance on the run line and total.
• CJ Abrams (.296/.405/.556, 1.114 OPS vs RHP) is Washington's best bat tonight and the one player in the lineup with the profile to single-handedly change the game script against an unfamiliar arm. Watch him at the top of the order.

The Misiorowski strikeout prop at minus-169 is the strongest play on this card. No career plate appearances for any Washington hitter against him, a 14.1 K/9 season pace, and a lineup that lacks elite contact ability at the bottom of the order. The run line at minus-104 is the best structural value, priced like a coin flip when the actual gap in pitching and bullpen depth is significant. The YRFI at minus-108 is a clean complement given Irvin's early-inning exposure and Milwaukee's recent offensive rhythm. The over 8 at minus-105 is a low-conviction lean on bullpen vulnerability, not a conviction play. Size it down or skip it.

The honest caveat is Milwaukee's injured lineup. If Irvin is sharp from the first pitch and the Brewers go quiet, the game script changes fast. Misiorowski can miss bats all night and still lose 1-0 if the offense does nothing. That is an unlikely outcome given Irvin's history against this lineup and Washington's relief situation, but it is not impossible. Manage stakes accordingly and weight the props over the totals. For the full slate, see our MLB picks today, NRFI picks, and player props.