Shota Imanaga enters with a 2.88 ERA across 34.1 innings in 2026, 38 strikeouts, and just 9 walks. His most recent start was rough, 5.1 innings and 4 earned runs against the Dodgers, but that sits against back-to-back 1-ER gems against Philadelphia across 13 combined innings. The more relevant number is what he does to this specific Arizona roster. Ketel Marte is 0-for-6 lifetime against him, a .000 OPS across both 2024 and 2025. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. is 0-for-6. Geraldo Perdomo is 0-for-4. Ildemaro Vargas is 0-for-2. Arizona enters this game 6-0 against left-handed pitchers as a team this season, but that split is not being driven by Imanaga. Every regular Arizona bat with a meaningful career sample against him has been shut down completely.

Ryne Nelson is a different story. His 7.71 ERA in 2026 is not bad luck. He was knocked out in 0.1 innings against Toronto with 8 runs scored. He followed that with 6 earned in 5 innings against San Diego. His one functional start, 5.1 innings and 1 run against Baltimore, is the outlier. Against the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley specifically, Nelson has gone 0.2 innings and 5 earned runs in April 2025 and 1.2 innings and 4 earned runs in March 2025. He has not survived the second inning in either recent Wrigley start. Ian Happ owns him: a .429 average and 1.556 OPS in 9 career plate appearances, including a 5.000 OPS in his two most recent matchups. Hoerner carries a .955 OPS across 11 career PA against him. Busch is .500 with a 1.167 OPS in 6 PA. This lineup has a detailed roadmap for blowing Nelson up early, and they have used it repeatedly.

The Arizona Diamondbacks arrive in game two of this series having dropped yesterday's opener 5-6, now 3-7 in their last 10 games with a minus-25 run differential in that stretch. Chicago is 20-12 overall and 12-5 at home. As SportsLine noted, "The Chicago Cubs are on a 12-3 run over the last two-plus weeks," and that momentum is built on real offensive production: 5.5 runs per game, third in MLB. Wrigley plays slightly above neutral with a 1.05 runs factor and a 1.10 home run factor. Wind direction is unavailable at print time, and that is the one genuine swing variable. Wind blowing out toward the bleachers and Nelson's volatility can multiply fast. Wind in from Lake Michigan and the game tightens up. Until we know which way the flag is pointing, keep total positions at a lean rather than a lock.

• Imanaga has completely neutralized the core Arizona lineup. Marte, Gurriel Jr., Perdomo, and Vargas have combined for a .000 OPS across 18 career plate appearances against him, consistent across both 2024 and 2025 samples with no signs of regression.
• Nelson's Wrigley record against the Cubs is alarming: 0.2 innings and 5 earned runs in April 2025, followed by 1.2 innings and 4 earned runs in March 2025. He has not survived past the second inning in either recent start at this park against this lineup.
• The Cubs are 12-5 at home and 15-7 against right-handed pitching this season. Their 5.5 runs per game ranks third in MLB, and this offense has a documented, multi-season history of punishing Nelson specifically.
• Arizona's bullpen ranks 25th in MLB ERA, a serious liability once Nelson departs. With the Cubs' top-three scoring offense waiting in the middle innings, the damage can compound quickly after the starter exits.
• Ian Happ is the matchup-defining bat today: .429 average, 1.556 OPS, and one home run across 9 career PA against Nelson. His two most recent plate appearances against Nelson produced a 5.000 OPS. He is the most dangerous hitter in this specific context.
• Wrigley's wind remains the main unpriceable variable. A wind-out scenario can push the total over regardless of how early Nelson exits and partially offsets Imanaga's shutdown value. Wind direction at first pitch should inform any total position.

The prop cluster adds depth to the same thesis. Happ over 0.5 hits, Marte under 0.5 hits, and Nelson under 4.5 strikeouts are all bets on the obvious base case: Nelson gets knocked out early, Imanaga shuts down Arizona's core hitters, and the Cubs win going away. YRFI at +114 ties a bow on it given Nelson's specific first-inning exposure at this park. One real caveat applies across the board: Imanaga's strikeout output showed sharp variance in his April 21 start (1 K in 7 innings), and the wind at Wrigley can flip the total picture in either direction without warning. If you are playing the under at -137, Nelson's volatility is the main threat to that position, not Imanaga's ability to handle this lineup.

For the full slate, see our MLB picks today, NRFI picks, and player props.