This is Game 2 of a doubleheader, and the Mets already won Game 1 this afternoon, 3-1. Arizona has now dropped four straight and gone 2-8 in their last ten games. The Diamondbacks are 10-9 at home this season but are 11-18 against right-handed pitching overall, and Holmes is one of the sharper righties in the NL right now. The Mets come in 9-11 on the road but have won six of their last ten, carrying real momentum into tonight. Arizona's outfield picture has also shifted recently, and top prospect Waldschmidt earned his first major-league hit in this series. As Yahoo Sports reported: "On the second pitch from Mets reliever Brooks Raley, Waldschmidt pulled an inside cutter to left field for his first major-league hit." Against Holmes tonight, Carroll faces a less favorable environment, posting just a .720 OPS versus right-handers compared to 1.141 against lefties.

Kelly's walk problem is not about home-run variance. His command has broken down at the most basic level. When a starter issues 15 free passes in 19 innings, opponents score before they even make hard contact. Soto has a .807 career OPS in 21 plate appearances against Kelly, including a home run, and his three most recent 2025 at-bats against Kelly produced a 1.666 OPS. Semien carries a .400 average and a 1.400 OPS in five career plate appearances against Kelly, including a home run. On the Arizona side, Marte is 0-for-3 against Holmes across three separate seasons (2018, 2019, 2024), posting a 0.000 OPS each time. His 2026 slash against right-handed pitchers sits at .612 OPS, the lowest mark on Arizona's roster, and his last seven days have produced a .273 OPS. The matchup data and current form point in the same direction.

Chase Field adds a modest but real layer to the offensive equation. Its HR factor of 1.08 and runs factor of 1.04 mean fly balls carry a bit further than league average. That matters when Kelly has already allowed six home runs in just 19 innings this year. Soto's .494 slugging percentage and Semien's improving recent form (.788 OPS over the last seven days) give the Mets legitimate power upside. On the other side, Arenado has posted a .981 OPS over the last 28 days and Carroll has five home runs in 2026. Even against a starter as sharp as Holmes, Chase Field keeps Arizona's power ceiling in play.

• Kelly's 7.1 BB/9 in 2026 means the Mets create scoring chances before making hard contact. A below-average team OPS (.639) can still exploit a starter who base-loads himself into trouble simply by taking pitches.
• Holmes has pitched 6.2-plus innings in back-to-back starts. If he delivers similar length in Game 2 of this doubleheader, the Mets' bullpen (4.5 ERA, with some Game 1 usage already today) has minimal exposure in the late innings.
• Arizona is 11-18 against right-handed pitching in 2026, has lost four straight, and sits at 2-8 in their last ten. The offensive context for a team facing Holmes right now is not favorable.
• The contrarian case for Arizona centers on their bullpen, which carries a 3.56 ERA, one of the better relief corps in the NL. Kelly exits, likely by the 4th inning, their relievers can stabilize the game. The problem is those relievers will be chasing a deficit, not protecting a lead.
• Soto's career edge against Kelly (.807 OPS in 21 plate appearances, 1 home run) is the most documented matchup advantage in this game. He is the key offensive catalyst for the Mets' half of the total and the player most likely to exceed 1.5 total bases.
• Chase Field's 1.08 HR factor keeps Arizona's power threat alive even against Holmes. Arenado's .981 OPS over the last 28 days and Carroll's five 2026 home runs give the Diamondbacks a legitimate puncher's chance if Holmes allows any traffic late.

The Under 9.0 at -133 is the secondary play with a thinner edge. Holmes suppresses Arizona's run total, and the Mets' below-average offense limits their ceiling, particularly once Arizona's bullpen (3.56 ERA) takes over from Kelly in the fourth or fifth inning. The margin of edge is real but narrow. Size accordingly. On individual props, Soto over 1.5 total bases at +102 is the most defensible individual play, anchored by a .807 career OPS against Kelly and a park that adds a small home-run boost. Marte under 0.5 hits at +178 is the surprise-value play, tied directly to his 0-for-3 career record against Holmes and his current struggles against right-handed pitching.

The honest caveat is Arizona's bullpen. At 3.56 ERA, it is one of the better relief corps in the NL, and once Kelly exits, those relievers can settle the game down quickly. Arenado's recent form (.981 OPS over the last 28 days) and Carroll's power profile (.516 SLG, 5 HR) mean Arizona's offense is not without teeth, even against Holmes. Chase Field amplifies the risk of one big inning off a fatigued or replaced starter. The structural edges here are clear enough to act on at medium confidence. Manage unit sizes to match the doubleheader context and the thin margin on the total. For the full slate, see our MLB picks today, NRFI picks, and player props.