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Match Predictor
Pre-match Prediction
New York Yankees 54%Toronto Blue Jays 46%
Market LinesRun Line: New York Yankees -1Total: O/U 8.5
↓
Model: Under 8.5
Model projects 7.7 total runs vs 8.5 line
New York Yankees
All Over 8.5
45%
31/69
MLB: 48%
Starter
62%
8/13
vs TOR
50%
3/6
Avg Total
8.7
MLB: 8.9
Game Starter (13) Last Starter vs TOR vs TOR (6)
Will Warren #29 · RHP · Age 27
3.41
ERA (2026)
9.9
K/9 (2026)
13
Starts (2026)
11.2
Avg Total (2026)
Last 3:
ND @CLE (Jun 08): 4.1IP, 3ER, 5K
W @ATH (May 31): 6.0IP, 0ER, 5K
ND @KC (May 25): 6.0IP, 2ER, 3K
ND @CLE (Jun 08): 4.1IP, 3ER, 5K
W @ATH (May 31): 6.0IP, 0ER, 5K
ND @KC (May 25): 6.0IP, 2ER, 3K
vs TOR: ND (Jul 02 2025): 4.0 IP, 8 ER, 4 K
Bullpen (2026 Season)Good
ERA: 3.42MLB Avg: 3.958 relievers
⚠
Workload Alert: Allowed 8 runs on 2026-06-12 vs TOR. Bullpen arms likely still recovering.
Recent: W 7-5W 3-2W 8-4L 5-8W 3-1
Lineup vs Will Warren (Career)
| Batter | Pos | PA | AVG | OPS | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Springer | DH | 6 | .333 | 0.666 | 0 |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | 1B | 6 | .200 | 0.533 | 0 |
| Andres Gimenez | SS | 5 | .800 | 1.600 | 0 |
| Davis Schneider | LF | 4 | .333 | 1.666 | 1 |
| Jesus Sanchez | RF | 4 | .250 | 0.500 | 0 |
| Alejandro Kirk | C | 3 | .500 | 1.167 | 0 |
| Ernie Clement | 2B | 3 | .333 | 0.666 | 0 |
| Kazuma Okamoto | 3B | 3 | .000 | 0.333 | 0 |
| Myles Straw | RF | 2 | .000 | 0.000 | 0 |
| Yohendrick Pinango | LF | 2 | .500 | 1.000 | 0 |
3 batters with no matchup history
Toronto Blue Jays
All Over 8.5
46%
33/71
MLB: 48%
Starter
42%
5/12
vs NYY
50%
3/6
Avg Total
8.4
MLB: 8.9
Game Starter (12) Last Starter vs NYY vs NYY (6)
Patrick Corbin #46 · LHP · Age 37
4.55
ERA (2026)
6.3
K/9 (2026)
12
Starts (2026)
7.9
Avg Total (2026)
Last 3:
L PHI (Jun 08): 3.0IP, 5ER, 3K
L @ATL (Jun 03): 5.0IP, 4ER, 1K
ND @BAL (May 28): 5.0IP, 1ER, 4K
L PHI (Jun 08): 3.0IP, 5ER, 3K
L @ATL (Jun 03): 5.0IP, 4ER, 1K
ND @BAL (May 28): 5.0IP, 1ER, 4K
vs NYY: L (May 20 2025): 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Bullpen (2026 Season)Average
ERA: 3.81MLB Avg: 3.958 relievers
Recent: L 2-5W 3-2L 4-7W 8-5L 1-3
Lineup vs Patrick Corbin (Career)
| Batter | Pos | PA | AVG | OPS | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amed Rosario | 3B | 41 | .128 | 0.504 | 2 |
| Cody Bellinger | LF | 29 | .423 | 0.945 | 0 |
| Paul Goldschmidt | 1B | 20 | .500 | 1.663 | 2 |
| Ryan McMahon | 3B | 19 | .368 | 0.789 | 0 |
| Jazz Chisholm Jr. | 2B | 12 | .200 | 1.033 | 1 |
| Anthony Volpe | SS | 11 | .200 | 0.573 | 0 |
| Jose Caballero | SS | 7 | .333 | 1.262 | 1 |
| Ben Rice | 1B | 5 | .500 | 1.900 | 1 |
| Max Schuemann | SS | 4 | .500 | 1.250 | 0 |
| J.C. Escarra | C | 2 | .000 | 0.000 | 0 |
| Jasson Dominguez | LF | 1 | .000 | 0.000 | 0 |
2 batters with no matchup history
Our Top PicksLive Odds
Top PickYankees -1.0 (-105) | MEDIUM confidence.
Yankees -1.0 (-105) | MEDIUM confidence. The structural case for New York is compelling: a 42-27 record, a +102 run differential, and a 16-6 split aga...
PickUnder 8.5 (-109) | LOW confidence. Warre
Under 8.5 (-109) | LOW confidence. Warren's quality limits Toronto's ceiling and makes a low-run game the most likely scenario. But Corbin's volatilit...
PickWill Warren Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-125) |
Will Warren Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-125) | MEDIUM confidence. Warren is posting 9.83 K/9 in 2026. The outs market projects roughly a 5.5-inning outing, ...
New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays Game Preview
Will Warren takes the mound at Rogers Centre against Patrick Corbin in the series finale between the New York Yankees and the Toronto Blue Jays. The pitching matchup tells almost the entire story. Warren is 7-1 with a 3.41 ERA in 2026, posting 75 strikeouts in 68.2 innings. Corbin is 2-3 with a 4.55 ERA and has been carved up in back-to-back starts, surrendering 5 earned runs in 3 innings against Philadelphia on June 8 and 4 earned runs in 5 innings at Atlanta on June 3. Against New York specifically, he has allowed exactly 3 earned runs in each of his last three appearances. The quality gap here is real.
Aaron Judge remains out of the lineup, but the Yankees have adjusted well. Paul Goldschmidt has stepped into an expanded cleanup role, hitting the go-ahead two-run home run in the ninth inning of yesterday's 3-1 win. He carries a .500 average and 1.663 OPS across 20 career plate appearances against Corbin, with 2 home runs in that sample. Goldschmidt described his approach: "I'm definitely not up there guessing; I was just trying to be ready to hit." That calm, locked-in mindset against a pitcher who cannot find his command is exactly what a matchup edge looks like at the individual level. Cody Bellinger amplifies the concern for Corbin, posting a .423 average and 0.945 OPS across 29 career plate appearances against him, a sample that spans eight seasons.
The Yankees enter this game 42-27 with a +102 run differential, the best numbers on the slate. They are 16-6 against left-handed starters in 2026, a dominant split that directly targets Corbin's handedness. Toronto has gone 4-7 over their last 11 games with their xSLG dropping from .429 to .379 in recent weeks. Their home record (21-17) provides some floor, but the offense has regressed at exactly the wrong time. Warren already faced this lineup once in 2026, limiting them to 3 runs in 5 innings in a Yankees win on May 19.
The one real complicating factor is Rogers Centre itself. The Yankees are 2-11 at this venue since the start of 2025 in tonight's MLB action. That persistent site-specific record creates enough two-way uncertainty that neither moneyline side resolves into clean value: the Yankees at -125 price them as a comfortable favorite despite one of the ugliest recent road venue records on the board, while Toronto at +110 runs directly against the structural case the data builds for New York. The edge here lives in the run line and props, not the straight bet.
New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays Key Insights
- Warren (3.41 ERA, 9.83 K/9 in 2026) faces a Toronto lineup ranked 24-29 vs right-handed pitching this season. Their offensive regression, with xSLG dropping from .429 to .379 in recent weeks, creates a favorable setup for a strikeout performance above his 4.5-Ks line.
- Corbin has allowed 3 or more earned runs in 4 of his last 5 starts. The market prices his Under 15.5 outs at -169, projecting fewer than 5 innings. A short outing puts pressure on a Toronto bullpen already taxed through two prior games in this series.
- Bellinger has a .423 average and 0.945 OPS in 29 career plate appearances against Corbin spanning 2017 through 2026, with consistently strong results across multiple seasons. Current form (0.893 OPS over the last 7 days) confirms he is locked in entering this start.
- Goldschmidt owns a .500 average and 1.663 OPS in 20 career plate appearances against Corbin, including 2 home runs. Rogers Centre carries a 1.08 home run park factor, adding a layer of upside to any deep-count at-bat from the cleanup spot.
- Rosario has hit .128 with a 0.504 OPS in 41 career plate appearances against Corbin, the largest sample in the Yankees lineup against today's starter and by far the worst result. His 2026 BvP line is 0.000 OPS across 2 plate appearances, showing no sign of reversal.
- Both bullpens are working through a depleted three-game series. A tight game in the late innings could shift quickly once starters exit, adding variance to any total bet that lands near the line.
New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays Betting Picks
Picks made June 14, 2026 at 05:26 AM ET. Odds shown reflect current market prices.
Yankees -1.0 (-105) | MEDIUM confidence.
Yankees -1.0 (-105) | MEDIUM confidence. The structural case for New York is compelling: a 42-27 record, a +102 run differential, and a 16-6 split against left-handed starters that directly targets Corbin's handedness. Warren's 3.41 ERA and seven wins give New York a meaningful rotation edge over a pitcher who has been lit up in back-to-back starts. The market implies only 51.3% cover probability for the Yankees at -1.0, which underweights these matchup-specific advantages. The Rogers Centre record (2-11) is real, but when a specific LHP matchup edge of this magnitude aligns with the top arm in the rotation, that targeted factor carries more weight than a general venue tendency.
Under 8.5 (-109) | LOW confidence. Warre
Under 8.5 (-109) | LOW confidence. Warren's quality limits Toronto's ceiling and makes a low-run game the most likely scenario. But Corbin's volatility, a potential early hook after his recent implosions, and both bullpens working through a series create enough variance to prevent a strong directional lean. This is a thin-margin play best used as a correlated leg rather than a standalone bet.
Will Warren Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-125) |
Will Warren Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-125) | MEDIUM confidence. Warren is posting 9.83 K/9 in 2026. The outs market projects roughly a 5.5-inning outing, putting him on pace for 6 strikeouts at his current rate. Toronto ranks 24-29 vs right-handed pitching and their offensive regression deepens the setup. His last three starts produced 5, 5, and 3 Ks; the 3-K game came in a shortened 4.1-inning outing. With normal run support and a deeper expected workload today, clearing 4.5 is the most likely outcome.
Cody Bellinger Over 0.5 Hits (-227) | HI
Cody Bellinger Over 0.5 Hits (-227) | HIGH confidence. Bellinger has a .423 average and 0.945 OPS across 29 career plate appearances against Corbin, spanning 2017 through 2026 with consistent production across every season he has faced him. His 2025 line against Corbin was 1.000 OPS and his 2026 line is also 1.000 OPS in 2 PA. Add a current 7-day OPS of 0.893 and you have a hitter in form against a pitcher he has genuinely owned over time. The -227 price is steep, but the 29-PA sample earns it as an anchor leg.
Paul Goldschmidt to Hit a Home Run (+460
Paul Goldschmidt to Hit a Home Run (+460) | MEDIUM confidence. Value longshot only. Goldschmidt owns a .500 average and 1.663 OPS in 20 career plate appearances against Corbin with 2 home runs. His 2026 BvP line is 4.000 OPS across 3 PA. He hit the go-ahead two-run shot yesterday and enters today locked in (.530 SLG, 9 HR on the season, 1.032 OPS over the last 7 days). Rogers Centre carries a 1.08 home run park factor. The market's implied probability of 17.9% at +460 discounts a career per-PA home run rate against this pitcher that real data supports as closer to 10 percent per trip to the plate, implying a 27-33% real chance across 3-4 projected appearances. Treat as a calculated longshot.
Amed Rosario Under 0.5 Hits (+152) | MED
Amed Rosario Under 0.5 Hits (+152) | MEDIUM confidence. Rosario has hit .128 with a 0.504 OPS in 41 career plate appearances against Corbin, the largest matchup sample in the Yankees lineup against today's starter. That includes a 15-PA stretch in 2019 (0.419 OPS), a 7-PA stretch in 2020 (0.143 OPS), and he is 0-for-2 against Corbin in 2026. His overall season OPS vs left-handed pitching is 0.750, which is decent, but career matchup data at this scale carries more predictive weight. Getting +152 on the under is solid value.
Patrick Corbin Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+12
Patrick Corbin Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+120) | MEDIUM confidence. Corbin is posting 6.28 K/9 in 2026 across 57.1 innings. His last three starts produced 3, 1, and 4 Ks respectively. The market prices his Under 15.5 outs at -169, projecting a start of fewer than 5 innings, which puts him on pace for roughly 3 strikeouts at his current rate. In all three of his 2025-26 starts against the Yankees, he recorded exactly 3 strikeouts each time. Getting plus-money on the under here against that consistent data point is a clean value play.
Same-Game Parlay
Same-Game Parlay: Yankees -1.0 + Under 8.5 + Warren Over 4.5 Ks + Bellinger Over 0.5 Hits. These four legs are naturally correlated. Warren posting strikeouts is directly tied to a lower-run environment. A controlled game with fewer runs supports the run-line cover. Bellinger recording a hit in a game the Yankees manage and win is a natural extension of that narrative. The SGP connects the game's most likely outcomes into a single correlated ticket. Legs: Yankees -1.0 (-105), Under 8.5 (-109), Warren Over 4.5 Ks (-125), Bellinger Over 0.5 Hits (-227).
Analysis insight — no specific bet associated
NRFI (-130) | LOW confidence. Warren's 3
NRFI (-130) | LOW confidence. Warren's 3.41 ERA and Toronto's offensive regression support a quiet first inning on the Blue Jays side. But Corbin's recent implosion (5 ER in 3 IP on June 8) and the Yankees' 5.1 runs per game pace create real YRFI risk on the New York half. The market prices NRFI at -130 (roughly 56.5% implied), nearly a coin flip. The lean is NRFI given Warren's 2026 stability, but confidence is low. Treat as a minor add, not a main bet.
Key Players
Batting AverageNYY
Ben Rice
.291Batting Average
1B
Home RunsNYY
Ben Rice
18Home Runs
1B
Runs Batted InNYY
Cody Bellinger
45Runs Batted In
LF
Earned Run AverageNYY
Cam Schlittler
1.82Earned Run Average
SP
WinsNYY
Cam Schlittler
7Wins
SP
StrikeoutsNYY
Cam Schlittler
96Strikeouts
SP
Batting AverageTOR
Ernie Clement
.305Batting Average
2B
Home RunsTOR
Kazuma Okamoto
15Home Runs
3B
Runs Batted InTOR
Kazuma Okamoto
41Runs Batted In
3B
Earned Run AverageTOR
Kevin Gausman
3.41Earned Run Average
SP
WinsTOR
Kevin Gausman
4Wins
SP
StrikeoutsTOR
Dylan Cease
103Strikeouts
SP
Recent Form
New York Yankees
W3-2Cleveland Guardians
W8-4Cleveland Guardians
L8-5Toronto Blue Jays
W3-1Toronto Blue Jays
Toronto Blue Jays
L5-2Philadelphia Phillies
W3-2Philadelphia Phillies
L7-4Philadelphia Phillies
W8-5New York Yankees
L3-1New York Yankees
New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays Summary
The moneyline is a pass. The Yankees at -125 do not offer enough value given a 2-11 Rogers Centre record that the market has at least partially priced in. Toronto at +110 conflicts directly with the run-line pick, and venue history cuts both ways here without resolving into a clean directional edge. The right structure is Yankees -1.0 at -105. That pick does not require you to ignore the venue data, it just argues that a specific LHP matchup edge this pronounced, combined with Warren's quality start projection, is more predictive than a general site tendency. The market is pricing this at a near-coin-flip when the data points to something cleaner.
The props are where the real angles sit. Warren over 4.5 strikeouts, Rosario under 0.5 hits, and Corbin under 3.5 strikeouts all connect to the same expected game script: an efficient Warren performance against a regressed Toronto lineup that has struggled against right-handed pitching all season. Bellinger's 29-PA career history against Corbin is the most honest BvP number in this game, and the Goldschmidt home run at +460 is a calculated longshot grounded in real data rather than hope. Variance exists on every side. Corbin could stabilize, Warren could run into a rough inning, and bullpen usage in a series finale introduces unpredictability late. Bet within your limits and treat the longshot as exactly that.
For the full slate, see our MLB picks today, NRFI picks, and player props.
Head-to-Head History
Season SeriesSeries tied 1-1
| Date | Matchup | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 12, 2026 | NYY @ TOR | TORTOR 8-5 |
| Jun 13, 2026 | NYY @ TOR | NYYNYY 3-1 |
Compare odds for NYY @ TOR
Frequently Asked Questions
