Opposing him is Los Angeles Dodgers righty Emmet Sheehan, whose 2026 numbers represent a hard fall from his 3.35 ERA in 2025. Sheehan carries a 4.76 ERA with 12 home runs surrendered in 64.1 innings, a rate of roughly 1.68 per nine. His June 7 start against the Angels lasted just 1.1 innings before he was pulled. He bounced back on June 14 with 8 strikeouts in 5 innings against Chicago, which shows he still has the swing-and-miss stuff when locked in. The key variable today: he enters on 7 days of extended rest, his freshest outing of the season. Whether that sharpens him or disrupts his rhythm is a genuine unknown.

The biggest name in this game is Shohei Ohtani, who was away from the team Saturday for the birth of his second child but is confirmed in the lineup today. He owns a 1.001 OPS against right-handed pitching this year and a scorching 1.161 OPS over the past 28 days. He is the primary threat to turn a single bad Young inning into a blowout. Los Angeles also comes in without reliever Blake Treinen, who was placed on the 15-day injured list Saturday with right elbow inflammation. Treinen's absence cuts into one of the better bullpens in baseball at precisely the wrong moment, in a game 3 where both pens are already taxed from two prior contests. Roberts recently praised one of his younger players, saying: "He's going to be in that Gold Glove conversation. He's engaged every pitch. It's just fun to see a young player value the defense." The Dodgers are a team that plays with purpose at every level.

Baltimore enters 11.5 games back in the division but has kept Los Angeles honest in both games of this series. Taylor Ward gives the Orioles a specific advantage in the matchup data: he is 2-for-3 against Sheehan with a home run and a 2.334 OPS in those career plate appearances. It is a small sample but it is real contact data, and Ward is the Baltimore hitter with the clearest edge heading into the game. Dodger Stadium leans slightly toward pitchers, with a 0.96 runs factor and 0.96 home run factor. The marine layer here suppresses fly balls, which is meaningful context when evaluating power threats on both sides.

• Brandon Young's 3.18 ERA in 2026 is a genuine turnaround, but his contact-heavy profile is a double-edged sword facing a Los Angeles lineup posting a .783 OPS and 5.2 runs per game. One bad inning against Ohtani, Muncy, or Alonso can unravel an otherwise clean start.
• Sheehan has allowed 12 home runs in 64.1 innings this year. With three legitimate power threats sitting in the top half of the Baltimore order, Gunnar Henderson (16 HR), Pete Alonso (17 HR), and Taylor Ward's career matchup advantage, the gopher ball risk is not theoretical.
• Blake Treinen's IL placement with right elbow inflammation reduces Los Angeles's elite late-inning options. Roberts will be reaching into secondary bullpen arms sooner than he would prefer in a close game, and both pens are already stretched after two competitive games in this series.
• Taylor Ward has a 2.334 OPS against Sheehan in 3 career plate appearances, including a home run. Limited history, but he is the Orioles hitter with the clearest early-game matchup edge in the data provided.
• Dodger Stadium carries a 0.96 runs factor and 0.96 home run factor. The marine layer conditions that suppress fly balls are a quiet factor working against high-variance outcomes, lending a mild lean toward pitchers in close-total projections.
• The market prices Baltimore at 35.2% implied probability on the moneyline. With a pitching matchup that actually leans slightly toward the Orioles on ERA and a bullpen dynamic that no longer clearly favors Los Angeles, that number looks like it underestimates Baltimore's real chances here.

There is a legitimate contrarian argument worth knowing about: Los Angeles is 37-21 against right-handed pitching this season, Ohtani is back, and buying down from -208 to -1.5 at nearly even money is a sharp play if you believe the Dodgers win comfortably at home. That angle exists. But the official position here is Baltimore, and the data supports it. When the pitching matchup, bullpen depth, and recent series competitiveness all point the same direction, the edge is real. Variance is always present in a sport decided one run at a time, and this is absolutely a game Baltimore could lose despite being the better play on paper.

For the full slate, see our MLB picks today, NRFI picks, and player props.