As MassLive noted, "Boston enters Friday night's series opener looking to restart its surge after Baltimore ended its franchise-record-tying 15-game winning streak." The Red Sox are 52-49, went 9-1 in their last 10, and sit within striking distance of the AL Wild Card. The momentum is real and earned. But tonight they face a right-handed starter, and that fact matters more than the streak narrative does. Boston is 35-39 against righties this season. Their winning run leaned heavily on favorable southpaw matchups, going 17-10 against left-handers. Tonight, they flip into less comfortable territory against a pitcher who has their number.

Toronto arrives cold. The Blue Jays dropped four straight before Thursday's 3-1 win over Tampa Bay and scored just 5 total runs during the skid, averaging 1.2 runs per game over their last five outings. The offensive freeze is real and documented. But the plate-appearance data on this specific Yesavage-versus-Boston matchup is striking. Jarren Duran is 0-for-6 with a .000 OPS against Yesavage in 2026. Wilyer Abreu is 0-for-5 with a .000 OPS. Willson Contreras, the hottest bat in the lineup with a 1.384 OPS over his last 7 days and 22 home runs, has managed just a .500 OPS across 6 career plate appearances against Yesavage. He does not just beat this lineup. He dominates it.

Fenway adds a slight run-scoring nudge (1.06 park factor) and rewards hard contact off the Green Monster with doubles rather than home runs (HR factor 0.96). Both starters work to miss bats rather than generate soft contact, so the park tilts things marginally toward a higher-scoring game in tonight's MLB action. The market prices Boston as the slight favorite at -120 on the moneyline, implying roughly 54.6 percent win probability. Multiple simulation models put the Blue Jays at 48 to 49 percent, making +110 on the road team a positive expected-value line on the better pitcher in this game. Every narrative arrow points to Boston. The matchup data points elsewhere.

• Yesavage owns a full ERA-run advantage over Sandoval (3.78 vs 4.82) and has faced this Boston lineup twice in 2026, posting 7.1 innings with 6 strikeouts on June 18 and 5.1 scoreless innings on April 28. He has a verified track record against this exact order.
• Boston is 35-39 against right-handed starters this season. The 15-game winning streak was built largely against left-handers (17-10 vs LHP). Tonight flips that matchup dynamic squarely against the Red Sox.
• Jarren Duran (0-for-6, .000 OPS) and Wilyer Abreu (0-for-5, .000 OPS) have been completely shut down by Yesavage in 2026. Those are two lineup spots that project as near-automatic outs tonight, boosting his strikeout total and limiting Boston's run-scoring potential.
• Toronto's offense is dormant at 1.2 runs per game over their last five outings, but Sandoval's 4.82 ERA means Boston's bullpen gets tested before this game is over regardless. Cold offenses still generate strikeouts, which supports Sandoval's K prop.
• Willson Contreras is playing at a different level right now: 1.384 OPS in his last 7 days, .559 slugging percentage, 22 home runs, and a 1.008 OPS against left-handed pitching. He faces Sandoval as a right-handed hitter at Fenway, where the Green Monster turns hard contact into extra bases.
• Simulation models peg Toronto at 48 to 49 percent win probability while the market implies roughly 47.6 percent. At +110, that gap is small but real, and it sits on the side of the better starter in this matchup.

The contrarian case for Red Sox -1.5 at +170 is real and worth acknowledging. Toronto's offense is genuinely broken right now, and if Boston gets to Yesavage early and builds momentum at Fenway, the Blue Jays may not generate enough offense to answer. His San Diego outing two starts ago (1.2 IP, 7 BB) showed he can unravel fast when the command abandons him. But that start stands alone in a season where he otherwise projects as a legitimate strikeout pitcher with a verified track record against this exact Boston lineup. A disaster is possible. A controlled, 6-inning, 7-strikeout performance is more likely given what the BvP data shows about Duran and Abreu.

Best bet tonight is Toronto ML at +110. Best prop on the board is Yesavage Over 5.5 strikeouts at -110, with Duran (0-for-6) and Abreu (0-for-5) providing two near-automatic outs at the top and middle of the order. Add Sandoval Over 4.5 strikeouts at +106 as a secondary position given Toronto's cold lineup, and the Contreras Over 1.5 total bases at even money for the best individual hitting value. For the full slate, see our MLB picks today, NRFI picks, and player props.