Tanner Gordon is the better option by process of elimination, not by merit. He carries a 5.75 ERA and 0-4 record in 2026, and his last three starts produced just 2 strikeouts in 5.1 innings against Cleveland, 4 in 4.0 against San Francisco, and 2 in 3.1 against St. Louis. His season strikeout rate looks serviceable on paper. His recent outing length tells a different story. Against the Washington Nationals, he allowed 5 earned runs in just 4.0 innings back in August 2024. His ceiling on a bad night is a short, messy start that hands the ball to a depleted bullpen early.

The Colorado Rockies bring Hunter Goodman back from the IL tonight, batting third with 35 home runs and a .545 slugging percentage this season. He steps into the lineup facing a pitcher who has surrendered 7 home runs in just 37.0 innings, a 1.70 HR/9 rate well above league average. Jake McCarthy is the other name to circle. He is 13 career plate appearances against Waldron at a .500 average and 1.288 OPS, including a 1.500 OPS in 2026 specifically. That sample spans multiple seasons and shows no sign of regression. As SportsGrid noted, "With Goodman active, it makes the prospect of betting on an over total more appealing, especially considering both teams have struggled with bullpen reliability."

This is game 3 of a series that already produced a 13-3 blowout on August 24. Both bullpens are taxed entering tonight. Colorado's pen carries a 5.28 ERA; Washington's sits at 4.29. Neither is a shutdown unit. Nationals Park plays as a neutral environment with an HR factor of 1.02, so nothing here suppresses offense structurally. In tonight's MLB action, the case for runs comes from every direction: bad starters, leaky pens, and a lineup featuring one of the game's most productive power hitters returning from the IL.

• Waldron's last three appearances: 2.0 IP, 0.1 IP, and 1.0 IP. That is 3.1 combined innings in emergency relief. His arm stamina as a starter is completely unknown after 119 days away from the role.
• McCarthy is 13 career plate appearances against Waldron at .500 AVG and 1.288 OPS, including a 1.500 OPS across 2 PA in 2026. The largest and most exploitable individual matchup in this game.
• Tovar's career line against Waldron runs the opposite direction: 12 PA, .091 AVG, 0.258 OPS total, worsening to 0.000 OPS in three 2026 plate appearances. A meaningful cold-side BvP read across a real sample.
• Gordon's last three starts produced 2 K, 4 K, and 2 K. He hit 3.5 strikeouts or more in just one of those outings. Short, inefficient outings are the trend, not the exception.
• Both starters carry ERAs above 5.50 in 2026. Colorado's bullpen sits at 5.28 ERA; Washington's at 4.29. Both pens are leaky. The structural expectation in this game is runs, not a pitchers' duel.
• The contrarian Under case: if Washington's bullpen (the better of the two at 4.29 ERA) takes over after Waldron exits early, seven innings of pen-on-pen action in a lower-pressure situation could hold the total in check. The structural lean is still Over, but the scenario is worth knowing before you bet the total.

The primary value plays are Waldron's strikeout Under at -109 and McCarthy's hits Over at +164. Waldron's prop is the clearest edge on the card given 2 total strikeouts across his last three appearances. McCarthy's prop carries 13 career PA of supporting evidence at .500 average and 1.288 OPS against tonight's starter. The total Over 9.0 is the thinnest call on the board, acknowledged at low confidence because the model and market agree exactly at 9.0. The lean is Over, the certainty is not high. Goodman's return tips the scales slightly in that direction. Two bad starting pitchers can produce variance in either direction, so size these picks accordingly and do not treat the total as a lock.

For the full slate, see our MLB picks today, NRFI picks, and player props.