Jonah Tong gets the call for New York, and the 23-year-old right-hander has been inconsistent all September. His season ERA sits at 4.21, but he has posted a 4.60 ERA over three September starts. His last outing against Philadelphia was the one that stands out: 4.2 innings, 4 earned runs, and 4 walks. That walk rate, 13 on the season in just 25.2 innings pitched, turns at-bats into grinds. A beat writer framed his situation plainly: “It’s an important start for him to build confidence.” That framing tells you exactly where the confidence level sits heading into today’s MLB action.

Washington enters this one with real momentum. The Nationals won a 7-6 walkoff yesterday to extend their winning streak to three games. They are 7-3 over their last ten, score 5.1 runs per game, and hold a 38-41 home record this season. The Mets arrive on a two-game skid, 37-42 on the road, averaging 4.3 runs per game. The offensive edge is not close.

The most important split on this board is the Mets’ 20-27 record against left-handed pitching, 13 games under .500 against southpaws. Today they face one in Early. Brett Baty has been scorching over the past seven days with a 1.692 OPS, but his career OPS against left-handers sits at 0.524. That is the worst possible platoon spot for one of the Mets’ hottest bats. CJ Abrams sits on the other side of that ledger, running a 1.027 OPS over his last seven games and set to face a right-hander with four walks in his last 4.2-inning outing.

• Early’s 88-day layoff is the defining variable. His 3.44 ERA and 93 strikeouts in 91.2 innings are real, but arm sharpness after a full summer off is a legitimate unknown that the market has only partially priced in.
• The Mets are 20-27 against left-handed pitching, 13 games under .500 in that split. That maps directly to their offensive ceiling today against a southpaw starter.
• Tong’s command has been a recurring issue in September: 4.60 ERA over three starts and 4 walks in his last 4.2-inning outing. More walks typically means fewer strikeout-generating at-bats and more Washington baserunners in scoring position.
• Washington’s bullpen carries a 4.35 ERA versus the Mets’ 4.87. In a game where both starters could exit well before the seventh inning, the late-game relief edge belongs to the home team.
• CJ Abrams is in the hottest stretch of his season with a 1.027 OPS over the last seven games. Tong’s four-walk outing last time out makes Abrams the most dangerous setup for an early Washington burst.
• The Nationals have won three straight, outscored opponents by 10 runs over their last ten games, and just took yesterday’s opener by walkoff. The Mets are 73-87 and scoring 4.3 runs per game on the road. Momentum and offense belong to Washington.

The Nationals ML at +100 is the primary angle here. The edge does not care what sport you are watching. Rest, context, price, same formula, different field. You are getting even money on a team with superior form, superior offense, and a favorable platoon matchup. The Early Under 2.5 strikeouts is the secondary speculative play, one worth a reduced stake given the genuine unpredictability of a pitcher returning from an 88-day gap. Both starters are volatile. Keep stakes measured on both plays and account for variance in a game where neither starting pitcher is a lock to finish the fifth inning.

For the full slate, see our MLB picks today, NRFI picks, and player props.