MLB Strikeout Props Today: Elite Arms and Market Misprices - May 31, 2026
Today's K Board
Pitchers ranked by K/9. Green bar shows K/9, dashed line is the prop. See how each pitcher stacks up.
Pitcher Cards
Jacob Misiorowski MIL (RHP) - MIL at HOU
Misiorowski has 100 K in 64.0 IP (14.06 K/9) with a 39% whiff rate and elite command (19 BB in 64 IP). Last five starts: 12-8-10-11-8, averaging 9.8 Ks. He has exceeded 8.5 in 81.8% of starts. At -103, the market is underpricing an elite arm. This is the top strikeout play of the day.
Spencer Strider ATL (RHP) - ATL at CIN
Strider's elite strikeout stuff (11.08 K/9, 34.8% whiff) is offset by walk issues (5.2 BB/9) and short outings. Last three: 5-9-4 Ks. Only 1 of 3 cleared 6.5. At expected 5 IP from outs markets, his 11.1 K/9 pace projects to just 6.1 Ks. At -111, the under is the edge.
Nolan McLean NYM (RHP) - MIA at NYM
McLean is pacing 11.01 K/9 (75 K in 61.1 IP) with elite 29% whiff rate and strong command (4.5 BB/9). Last five: 6-5-7-6-6. Median is 6, mean is 6.8—squarely at the line. At +116, you're getting plus odds on an elite-rate strikeout pitcher who has been consistently productive.
Will Warren NYY (RHP) - NYY at ATH
Warren's last three: 6-7-9 Ks is strong, but his previous two: 3-3. He's cleared 5.5 only once in last five. Against ATH, market pricing under at -161 is telling. The recent volatility (3-3-6-7-9) suggests the under is safer.
Griffin Canning SD (RHP) - SD at WSH
Canning's 9.53 K/9 and elite 27.5% whiff rate support the over, and 80% of his starts have cleared 4.5. The catch: his 4.5 IP average caps total output. Two of his last three full-length starts did hit 5 Ks each. At -105, slim edge on a pitcher who often exits early.
Jack Leiter TEX (RHP) - KC at TEX
Leiter's 9.49 K/9 paired with recent form (last five: 4-5-6-6-10) shows consistent clearing of 4.5. Against KC's weak lineup (.234 AVG, .682 OPS), he has room to work deep. At -167, the price is steep but fair given his K/9.
Kyle Bradish BAL (RHP) - TOR at BAL
Bradish is averaging 5.5 Ks per start over 11 games (9.41 K/9). Two of his last five starts: 6 K and 10 K. TOR pitching K/9 of 9.14 suggests high-strikeout opportunity. At +100 (even money), this is textbook value when your baseline is 6+ Ks per outing.
Braxton Ashcraft PIT (RHP) - MIN at PIT
Ashcraft is pacing 9.17 K/9 (70 K in 68.2 IP) with elite command (17 BB in 68.2 IP = 2.2 BB/9). Last three starts: 6 K, 9 K, 5 K. Even his worst recent outing (5 K) sat right at the line. His strikeout baseline is 6.3 per start. At -119, fair pricing on an elite arm in a pitcher's park.
Shane McClanahan TB (LHP) - LAA at TB
McClanahan's last three starts averaged 5.3 Ks per outing—well under 6.5. His recent work pattern shows consistent 5.0 IP exits. To clear 6.5, he'd need either a rare long outing or a high-K short stint. Neither is his recent profile. At -130, the under is reasonable.
Tatsuya Imai HOU (RHP) - MIL at HOU
Imai's last three starts averaged just 3.3 Ks per outing—well under 4.5. His 18 BB in 23.1 IP and 6.97 BB/9 confirm a control pitcher generating contact outs, not strikeouts. Recent form screams under. At +116, that's plus-money value.
Matthew Liberatore STL (LHP) - CHC at STL
Liberatore's last two: 10 K (5.0 IP), 9 K (4.2 IP)—both clear 4.5. Three of five recent starts exceed the line. His rolling K/9 of 11.4 signals recent momentum. Even the 5 K outing cleared the line. At -112, standard value on a pitcher running hot.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto LAD (RHP) - PHI at LAD
Yamamoto's last start: 3 K in 7 IP vs MIL. Historical vs PHI: 2 K in 4 IP (Oct 2025), 5 K in 6 IP (Apr 2025). PHI's .225 batting average and contact-first approach has historically suppressed his K ceiling in this matchup. Three of his last six at or under 6.5. Market at -152 Under acknowledges this trend.
Sean Burke CHW (RHP) - DET at CHW
Burke's recent five: 8-5-5-4-8 (mean 6.0 Ks per start). Against a DET lineup striking out at elite rates, he fits as a strikeout producer. His 8.29 K/9 combined with favorable matchup and at +102, the over has clear value.
Bryce Miller SEA (RHP) - ARI at SEA
Miller's limited sample (2 starts) shows 7 K and 3 K. His 8.18 K/9 season rate sits well above 4.5. With 5.5 IP average and 26% whiff rate, the over is sound. Against weak ARI offense (.231 AVG), at -102 the over has standard value.
Robbie Ray SF (LHP) - SF at COL
Ray's last three starts: 3 K (4.0 IP), 1 K (4.1 IP), 2 K (4.2 IP)—averaging just 2.0 Ks per outing. His 29 BB in 58.2 IP signals severe command loss. He is not missing bats. Market at -114 reflects consensus, but the signal is clear: Ray is a down play. Under is the edge.
Zebby Matthews MIN (RHP) - MIN at PIT
Matthews has cleared 5.5 in two of his last three outings (6 K, 6 K, 5 K). His 8.05 K/9 pace combined with a 6.3 IP average means innings for strikeouts. At +105, you're getting plus odds on a pitcher who has been consistently productive.
Ranger Suarez BOS (LHP) - BOS at CLE
Suarez's last two starts tell the story: 3 K in 4.1 IP, 4 K in 5.0 IP—both under the 4.5 line. His season K/9 is 7.88, but recent output is well below pace. Shortened outings limit ceiling. At +102, under offers legitimate value given the trend.
Nick Lodolo CIN (LHP) - ATL at CIN
Lodolo's recent form is inconsistent: 7 K, then 3, 6, and 2. His 4.5 K average over four starts sits below the 5.5 line. While his season K/9 is solid, recent output doesn't support clearing this line. Market pricing at -137 Under acknowledges the trend.
Michael Wacha KC (RHP) - KC at TEX
Wacha's 7.68 K/9 (60 K in 70.3 IP) is respectable and his last five averaged 5.5 Ks per outing. The 4.5 line sits below his floor. At 81.8% over rate, the market agrees. Even at -143, this is standard-value pricing on a productive arm.
Tanner Gordon COL (RHP) - SF at COL
Gordon's last two starts: 9 K, 5 K. His last three averaged 5.7 per outing. Rolling K/9 sits at 9.0. The 3.5 line is soft for a pitcher recently generating 4-5 K floors. At +102, value is present despite recent variance.
Jack Kochanowicz LAA (RHP) - LAA at TB
Kochanowicz averages 4.1 Ks per start (45 K in 61.1 IP) with a 6.6 K/9 season rate. The 3.5 line is below his floor. Recent starts: 4 K, 7 K, 4 K, 6 K. At +114, you're getting plus odds on a pitcher consistently clearing this modest threshold.
Andrew Painter PHI (RHP) - PHI at LAD
Painter's last three: 3-3-4—averaging 3.33 Ks per outing, right at the line. His 6.6 K/9 combined with recent floor of 2-3 Ks suggests the under is favorable. Market coin-flip (-119 Under / -118 Over) offers mild value on the under given trend evidence.
Jacob Lopez ATH (LHP) - NYY at ATH
Lopez has gone 2 K, 1 K in his last two starts—both well under 3.5. His 6.49 K/9 combined with recent floor of 1-2 Ks makes the line generous. At +100 (even money), the under is a standout edge. Lopez is a contact pitcher who walks and induces ground balls, not Ks.
Janson Junk MIA (RHP) - MIA at NYM
Junk's 6.45 K/9 is among the lowest rates in baseball. Recent five: 3-3-4-6-6. Two of his last three came under 3.5. His contact-heavy profile (18% whiff) strongly favors the under. At near-even -105, the edge is clear.
Keider Montero DET (RHP) - DET at CHW
Montero's last two starts: 2 K (NYM), 2 K (CLE). His 6.38 K/9 is already low, and recent output shows frequent under performances. Two of his last three under 3.5. Even facing high-K% CHW, his contact profile holds. At +106, under offers value.
Merrill Kelly ARI (RHP) - ARI at SEA
Kelly's recent form: 4-4-3 in last three starts—three of five under 4.5. His 5.81 K/9 is below average. Market at +100 (even money) for the under significantly underprices his recent ceiling. This is clear value: Kelly has gone under in all three recent starts.
Zack Littell WSH (RHP) - SD at WSH
Littell has gone 3-3-1-1-4 in his last five starts, averaging just 3.0 Ks per outing. His 5.61 K/9 is league-low territory. Even against a favorable strikeout opponent, Littell's low whiff rate (13.9%) and recent K floor make 3.5 look generous. At +102, under is the clear edge.
Spencer Miles TOR (UHP) - TOR at BAL
Miles has recorded 5+ Ks in two straight appearances despite short outings (3.2 IP, 4.1 IP). His 8.7 K/9 pace in 2026 sits well above the 3.5 line, and even at his shortest recent work (3.2 IP), he struck out 5.
Jordan Wicks CHC (UHP) - CHC at STL
Wicks lacks 2026 statistical data to evaluate. Market pricing (under favored at -133 vs +100 over) combined with STL's below-average strikeout rate (21% team K%) suggests caution on over. Default to market signal and lean under at even money.
Analysis
Sunday, May 31, 2026: 15 Games, Strikeout Edges Everywhere
Today's 15-game slate spans MLB top to bottom, and the strikeout props are screaming with opportunity. This is not a day for passive picks. The market is mispricing command issues in one direction and elite arms in the other. Rest, context, price, the formula works every time.
The Elite Arm: Jacob Misiorowski (Milwaukee Brewers at Houston Astros)
Misiorowski is the play of the day. Here are the facts: 14.06 K/9, 39% whiff rate, elite command (19 BB in 64 IP), and a 9.8 K average over his last five starts. His recent line: 12-8-10-11-8. Two games: 81.8% of his starts clear 8.5. The market is pricing this at -103 (50.8%), which is a historic underpricing for a pitcher averaging nearly 10 Ks against an unfamiliar Houston Astros lineup with zero matchup data. This is not a lean. This is a conviction play.
Command Disasters: Ray, Kelly, Lopez
San Francisco Giants's Robbie Ray has lost the strike zone. 29 BB in 58.2 IP. His last three starts: 3-1-2 Ks (average 2). At 5.5, he clears the line in just 45.5% of starts. This is a pitcher who has forgotten how to pitch. Under at -114 is textbook.
Arizona Diamondbacks's Merrill Kelly went under in all three of his recent starts (3-4-4). His 5.81 K/9 is below league average. At +100 for the under, the market is handing you free money. Take it.
Oakland Athletics's Jacob Lopez is a walking 1-2 K game. Recent five: 2-2-5-5-1. Last two: 1-2. His 6.49 K/9 is modest, his walk rate elite (6.97 BB/9), his ERA ugly (5.73). He is a contact reliever in a starter's body. At +100 for the under against New York Yankees, this is value.
The Soft Lines: Bradish, Leiter, Wacha
Baltimore Orioles's Kyle Bradish sits at 9.41 K/9 with a 5.5 line at +100. His recent five: 3-6-7-10-4 (mean 5.5). The market is telling you this is even money for a 6+ K pitcher. That's the edge.
Texas Rangers's Jack Leiter (9.49 K/9) faces a Kansas City Royals lineup at .234 batting average. His recent five: 4-5-6-6-10. Over 4.5 at -167 is steep but fair given his floor. The Kansas City Royals vs Texas Rangers should be a strikeout showcase.
Kansas City Royals's Michael Wacha: 7.68 K/9, 5.5 K average over five starts, 81.8% over rate at 4.5. Even at -143, this is textbook pricing.
The Outlier Play: Tatsuya Imai (Houston Astros) UNDER 4.5
Imai's recent three: 2-5-3 Ks (average 3.3). His one 9 K start was an outlier masking a low floor. 6.97 BB/9 is elite-level walks. He is not a strikeout pitcher; he is a control pitcher allowing contact. At +116 for the under, you're getting plus odds on a pitcher whose profile screams ground balls.
Game by Game Quick Takes
Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles: Miles OVER 3.5 is a lean. Bradish OVER 5.5 is a core play. The Toronto Blue Jays staff strikes out at 9.14 K/9, creating favorable matching dynamics for Baltimore Orioles hitters.
San Diego Padres vs Washington Nationals: Canning OVER 4.5 is low-confidence due to his 4.5 IP average limiting ceiling. Littell UNDER 3.5 is the tighter play here, elite whiff-rate advantage to the Nationals pitcher.
Minnesota Twins vs Pittsburgh Pirates: Ashcraft OVER 5.5 (9.17 K/9, elite command) is solid. Matthews OVER 5.5 is the lean given his recent 6-6-5 streak and 8.05 K/9.
Boston Red Sox vs Cleveland Guardians: Suarez UNDER 4.5 is the play, recent 3-4 in last two starts signals decline. Bibee lacks clear line data.
Los Angeles Angels vs Tampa Bay Rays: Kochanowicz OVER 3.5 at +114 is plus-odds value. McClanahan UNDER 6.5 reflects his 5.0 IP average and recent 5.3 K floor.
Atlanta Braves vs Cincinnati Reds: Strider UNDER 6.5 despite elite K/9, walk issues (5.2 BB/9) and recent 4-9-5 range support this. Lodolo UNDER 5.5 given recent 4.5 K average.
Miami Marlins vs New York Mets: Junk UNDER 3.5 is a firm lean, 6.45 K/9 (league-low) and recent under trend. McLean OVER 6.5 is the contrarian play; he's 11.01 K/9 elite with consistent 6+ K starts.
Detroit Tigers vs Chicago White Sox: Montero UNDER 3.5 at +106, recent 1-2 K streak and low contact pitcher profile. Burke OVER 5.5 at +102 is value against weak DET lineup.
Kansas City Royals vs Texas Rangers: Wacha OVER 4.5 and Leiter OVER 4.5 are both solid. KC is one of the weakest offenses in baseball.
San Francisco Giants vs Colorado Rockies: Ray UNDER 5.5 is a HIGH confidence play. His 2 K average in last three starts is alarming. Gordon OVER 3.5 at +102 offers plus odds on recent 6.2 K average.
New York Yankees vs Oakland Athletics: Warren UNDER 5.5 despite his 10.03 K/9, recent volatility (3-3-6-7-9) and two 3 K starts in last three favor the under. Lopez UNDER 3.5 at +100 is a HIGH confidence lean.
Arizona Diamondbacks vs Seattle Mariners: Kelly UNDER 4.5 at +100 is a HIGH confidence play. Three recent under performances (3-4-4) speak loud. Miller OVER 4.5 is solid given 8.18 K/9.
Philadelphia Phillies vs Los Angeles Dodgers: Painter UNDER 3.5, recent 3.3 K average. Yamamoto UNDER 6.5 reflects his historical matchup struggle vs PHI contact lineup.
Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals: Wicks lacks data; default to market under lean at +100. Liberatore OVER 4.5 is solid, recent 10-9 K stretch with 11.4 rolling K/9.
