Welcome to the MLB Strikeout Props board for Monday, May 11, 2026. Six games on the slate, and the edge is clear if you know where to look. The edge doesn't care what sport you're watching, rest, context, price, same formula, different field. Today's strikeout market is thick with data and inefficiency. Let's hunt.

New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles

The New York Yankees bring Ryan Weathers to the mound, their most dangerous strikeout arm. His 2026 numbers are elite: 10.47 K/9 across 38.7 innings with a devastating 28.1% whiff rate. Baltimore presents a glaring weakness: they're 0-9 against left-handers this season, the worst platoon split in baseball. Weathers' last five starts: 5, 4, 8, 10, 7, a median of 7 strikeouts. Coming off extended rest, he should have peak stuff in the zone. The concern is real though. On May 2 against this same Baltimore lineup, Weathers managed just 5 K's in 5 innings. That recent underperformance keeps confidence at MEDIUM despite the elite numbers, but the 5.5 line is a mild lean over.

Baltimore Orioles counter with Brandon Young, and his numbers are a blinking red light for unders. 6.1 K/9 in 2026, well below league average. His last four starts: 5, 2, 5, 2. That's a 3.5 K per start average. To cash the over at 4.5, he needs to exceed his season norm, something he's done just once in four 2026 starts. The market prices the under at -167, which is sharp consensus. This is a HIGH confidence under.

Tampa Bay Rays at Toronto Blue Jays

Drew Rasmussen takes the mound for Tampa Bay Rays, and his recent form is rock solid. 9.08 K/9 with last three starts all above 5.5 (5, 6, 6 K's, all overs). Toronto ranks 30th in opponent K%, a neutral to positive spot for strikeout volume. Rasmussen pitches 5.2 innings on average, and at his 9.08 K/9 pace, that projects to 5.3 expected strikeouts. Yes, he had one 3-K outing mixed in, but the trend is up and the opponent is contact-oriented. HIGH confidence over on Rasmussen.

Kevin Gausman's decline is real and measurable. His rolling K/9 has cratered to 6.5, and his last three starts tell the story: 3, 2, 3 strikeouts, all comfortably under 5.5. His season K/9 of 8.29 is no longer predictive because recent form dominates. He's averaging 2.7 Ks per outing over his last three starts, a staggering drop. Market prices the under at -169. That's HIGH confidence consensus. The under is the play.

Arizona Diamondbacks at Texas Rangers

Michael Soroka's strikeout upside is elite. 10.22 K/9 with a recent 10-K eruption backing up his season rate. Last five starts: 6, 2, 6, 5, 10, a median of 6 strikeouts. The volatility (10 then 2) is concerning, but the 5.5 line sits at even odds (+100), and his elite K/9 suggests upside. MEDIUM confidence over given the track record and the pricing.

Nathan Eovaldi counters for Texas Rangers, and his last two starts (8K, 7K) are both well over 5.5. His whiff rate is elite at 30.7%, one of the highest on today's slate. At 8.87 K/9 with 6.0 innings per start, he's looking at 5-6 K's per outing. Yes, he had a 3-K stinker three starts ago, but the trend is firmly up. MEDIUM confidence over at +104 odds.

Seattle Mariners at Houston Astros

George Kirby's 2026 strikeout numbers are a red flag. His K/9 sits at 6.75, well below his career norms. Last three starts: 5, 5, 2, averaging 4 strikeouts per outing. At a 6.75 K/9 pace with 6.5 innings average, he's looking at 4.9 expected strikeouts. The over rate at the 5.5 line is just 37.5%, the lowest on the board. Houston ranks 26th in opponent K%, a neutral spot. MEDIUM confidence under on Kirby.

Peter Lambert gets the ball for Houston, and his recent window is tight but explosive: last two starts, 8K and 8K. His 29.0% whiff rate is elite, paired with 9.27 K/9. Houston's opponents K at 24.5%, ranking 6th worst, a home-run matchup for strikeout production. At 4.5 with -116 odds, the risk-reward favors a lean over. Small sample size limits HIGH confidence, but the recent trend and elite whiff rate warrant MEDIUM confidence over.

San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgers

Trevor McDonald is a tiny sample (2 starts, 13 innings), but his most recent outing demands attention: 10 strikeouts in 7 innings against San Diego. His 29.6% whiff rate is elite, and his K/9 pace sits at 9.0. Dodger Stadium can elevate strikeout numbers for the right pitcher. The concern is real: his previous Dodgers start (September 2025) yielded only 3 K's, and the 2-game sample is unreliable. At 4.5 with +108 odds, MEDIUM confidence over is justified by the elite recent performance, but the small sample size and prior underperformance create volatility.

Roki Sasaki's recent form is the opposite trend. His last five starts: 4, 5, 2, 6, 5, a median of 5, but the most recent outing (2K on April 19) shows downward pressure. His walk rate is high at 4.7 BB/9 (15 walks in 28.2 innings), meaning batters are working deeper counts and eating into efficient strikeout-generating at-bats. At 4.8 innings per start average, there's limited runway. His whiff rate is elite at 28.7%, but it's not translating to volume. Market prices the under at +120 (or -172 over), which is sharp consensus. HIGH confidence under at 3.5.

All strikeout data sourced from MLB official pitcher and lineup statistics.