NFL Betting
Odds, predictions, standings, and expert analysis for every NFL game
Anytime TD Board · 2026-10-15
This board is shown exactly as it was published before kickoff. Probabilities and odds are not updated after the slate.
Seattle Seahawks @ Denver Broncos
Thu 8:15 PM ETJon's best play · Anytime TD
AJ BarnerSEA · TE
25.4%our model
vs21.3%market implied
+4.1ptsmodel edge
+370price at build
Our calibrated model gives AJ Barner a 25.4% shot at the end zone, while the market is only pricing 21.3%. That gap is the play.
Where the model sees valuemodel probability vs market-implied, by edge
- AJ BarnerJon's best playSEA · TE25% model · 21% market+4.1pts+370at build
- RJ HarveyJon's pickDEN · RB29% model · 26% market+3.0pts+285at build
- Troy FranklinDEN · WR15% model · 12% market+2.9pts+740at build
Jaxon Smith-Njigba is the model's most likely scorer (43.9%) — but not a pick at today's price: the market is asking more than our number. Good pick, wrong price. Value opens at +128 or better.
Full model board · all 42 players (ranked by Model TD%)
#PlayerModel vs marketOdds
- 1Jaxon Smith-Njigbamodel's #1SEA · WRoverpriced — value at +128 or better44% model · 49% market+104at build
- 2J.K. DobbinsDEN · RBoverpriced — value at +197 or better34% model · 39% market+158at build
- 3Emanuel WilsonSEA · RBoverpriced — value at +199 or better33% model · 48% market+108at build
- 4RJ HarveyJon's pickDEN · RB29% model · 26% market+285at build
- 5AJ BarnerJon's best playSEA · TE25% model · 21% market+370at build
- 6Courtland SuttonDEN · WR23% model · 30% market+235at build
- 7Jaylen WaddleDEN · WR21% model · 29% market+245at build
- 8Bo NixDEN · QB19% model · 19% market+430at build
- 9Cooper KuppSEA · WR18% model · 20% market+410at build
- 10George HolaniSEA · RB15% model · 23% market+340at build
- 11Troy FranklinDEN · WR15% model · 12% market+740at build
- 12Rashid ShaheedSEA · WR14% model · 20% market+390at build
- 13Tory HortonSEA · WR12% model · 13% market+700at build
- 14Evan EngramDEN · TE11% model · 16% market+520at build
- 15Elijah ArroyoSEA · TE8% model · 10% market+950at build
- 16Sam DarnoldSEA · QB8% model · 8% market+1100at build
- 17Lil'Jordan HumphreyDEN · WR7% model · 6% market+1500at build
- 18Nate AdkinsDEN · TE7% model · 6% market+1699at build
- 19Marvin Mims Jr.DEN · WR7% model · 10% market+860at build
- 20Eric SaubertSEA · TE7% model · 4% market+2199at build
- 21Nick KallerupSEA · TE6% model · 5% market+2001at build
- 22Tyler BadieDEN · RB6% model · 8% market+1100at build
- 23Brady RussellSEA · RB6% model · 3% market+3497at build
- 24Adam TrautmanDEN · TE5% model · 8% market+1200at build
- 25Adam PrenticeDEN · FBlimited data5% model · 4% market+2497at build
- 26Montorie Foster JrSEA · WRlimited data3% model · 3% market+3900at build
- 27Josh JobeSEA · CBlimited data1% model · 2% market+5888at build
- 28Devon WitherspoonSEA · CBlimited data1% model · 1% market+7419at build
- 29Julian LoveSEA · SAFlimited data1% model · 2% market+4305at build
- 30Brandon JonesDEN · SAFlimited data1% model · 2% market+4708at build
- 31Nick EmmanworiSEA · SAFlimited data1% model · 1% market+9424at build
- 32Ty OkadaSEA · SAFlimited data1% model · 1% market+9900at build
- 33Ernest JonesSEA · LBlimited data0% model · 2% market+4508at build
- 34Alex SingletonDEN · LBlimited data0% model · 2% market+5888at build
- 35Justin StrnadDEN · LBlimited data0% model · 1% market+10889at build
- 36Jonah EllissDEN · LBlimited data0% model · 1% market+18768at build
- 37Nik BonittoDEN · LBlimited data0% model · 1% market+18768at build
- 38DeMarcus LawrenceSEA · LBlimited data0% model · 0% market+26216at build
- 39Zach AllenDEN · DElimited data0% model · 0% market+26216at build
- 40Byron Murphy IISEA · DTlimited data0% model · 1% market+19900at build
- 41Eyioma UwazurikeDEN · DTlimited data0% model · 0% market+24900at build
- 42D.J. JonesDEN · DTlimited data0% model · 0% market+49900at build
First TD scorer market (25)
Ranked by market price. Our model covers anytime TD only, so the model column shows each player's anytime TD probability for context.
- 1Emanuel WilsonSEA · RBATD 33.4%+490at build
- 2Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSEA · WRATD 43.9%+500at build
- 3J.K. DobbinsDEN · RBATD 33.7%+720at build
- 4Courtland SuttonDEN · WRATD 23.4%+1049at build
- 5Jaylen WaddleDEN · WRATD 21.4%+1150at build
- 6RJ HarveyDEN · RBATD 29.0%+1250at build
- 7AJ BarnerSEA · TEATD 25.4%+1601at build
- 8George HolaniSEA · RBATD 15.0%+1601at build
- 9Rashid ShaheedSEA · WRATD 14.3%+1748at build
- 10Bo NixDEN · QBATD 18.8%+1900at build
- 11Cooper KuppSEA · WRATD 18.3%+1900at build
- 12Evan EngramDEN · TEATD 11.0%+2199at build
- 13Tory HortonSEA · WRATD 12.0%+2799at build
- 14Marvin Mims Jr.DEN · WRATD 7.0%+3105at build
- 15Troy FranklinDEN · WRATD 14.8%+3105at build
- 16Adam TrautmanDEN · TEATD 5.1%+3702at build
- 17Elijah ArroyoSEA · TEATD 7.6%+3702at build
- 18Sam DarnoldSEA · QBATD 7.6%+3702at build
- 19Tyler BadieDEN · RBATD 5.6%+3702at build
- 20Nate AdkinsDEN · TEATD 7.2%+4900at build
- 21Lil'Jordan HumphreyDEN · WRATD 7.4%+5395at build
- 22Eric SaubertSEA · TEATD 6.8%+6394at build
- 23Adam PrenticeDEN · FBATD 5.1%+7419at build
- 24Brady RussellSEA · RBATD 5.5%+9424at build
- 25Nick KallerupSEA · TEATD 5.8%+9424at build
