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NFL Betting

Odds, predictions, standings, and expert analysis for every NFL game

Anytime TD Board · 2026-10-25

This board is shown exactly as it was published before kickoff. Probabilities and odds are not updated after the slate.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ New Orleans Saints

Sun 9:30 AM ET
Where the model sees valuemodel probability vs market-implied, by edge
  • Cedric TillmanNO · WR20% model · 3% market+16.6pts+2903at build
  • Devaughn VeleNO · WR31% model · 25% market+5.5pts+295at build
  • Tyler ShoughNO · QB24% model · 19% market+5.5pts+440at build
  • Jaylen WarrenDylan's pickmodel's #1PIT · RB56% model · 51% market+5.4pts-102at build
  • Chris OlaveNO · WR39% model · 33% market+5.4pts+200at build
  • Rico DowdlePIT · RB31% model · 26% market+5.3pts+285at build
  • Brandon JohnsonPIT · WR12% model · 8% market+4.1pts+1100stale
  • Brandon SmithPIT · WRlimited data12% model · 9% market+3.0pts+1049at build
  • Bryce LanceNO · WR15% model · 13% market+1.4pts+660at build
model TD% market implied
Full model board · all 44 players (ranked by Model TD%)
#PlayerModel vs marketOdds
  • 1Jaylen WarrenDylan's pickmodel's #1PIT · RB56% model · 51% market-102at build
  • 2Chris OlaveNO · WR39% model · 33% market+200at build
  • 3DK MetcalfPIT · WRoverpriced — value at +211 or better32% model · 35% market+186at build
  • 4Rico DowdlePIT · RB31% model · 26% market+285at build
  • 5Devaughn VeleNO · WR31% model · 25% market+295at build
  • 6Germie BernardPIT · WR27% model · 29% market+250at build
  • 7Pat FreiermuthPIT · TE26% model · 27% market+270at build
  • 8Tyler ShoughNO · QB24% model · 19% market+440at build
  • 9Kendre MillerNO · RB23% model · 36% market+178at build
  • 10Juwan JohnsonNO · TE22% model · 25% market+295at build
  • 11Alvin KamaraNO · RB22% model · 23% market+340at build
  • 12Darnell WashingtonPIT · TE20% model · 25% market+295at build
  • 13Cedric TillmanNO · WR20% model · 3% market+2903at build
  • 14Bryce LanceNO · WR15% model · 13% market+660at build
  • 15Noah FantNO · TE14% model · 14% market+640at build
  • 16CJ DonaldsonNO · RB13% model · 17% market+490at build
  • 17Brandon JohnsonPIT · WR12% model · 8% market+1100stale
  • 18Brandon SmithPIT · WRlimited data12% model · 9% market+1049at build
  • 19Aaron RodgersPIT · QB9% model · 8% market+1100at build
  • 20Oscar DelpNO · TE9% model · 6% market+1450at build
  • 21Lew Nichols IIIPIT · RB7% model · 5% market+2098at build
  • 22Barion BrownNO · WR7% model · 6% market+1651at build
  • 23Travis HomerPIT · RB6% model · 6% market+1601at build
  • 24Riley NowakowskiPIT · FBlimited data5% model · 3% market+2799at build
  • 25Kaden WetjenPIT · WR5% model · 6% market+1651at build
  • 26Eli HeidenreichPIT · RBlimited data5% model · 6% market+1601at build
  • 27Ben SkowronekPIT · WR4% model · 8% market+1100at build
  • 28Treyton WelchNO · TElimited data4% model · 2% market+5395at build
  • 29Robert TonyanPIT · TE3% model · 7% market+1349at build
  • 30Jalen RamseyPIT · CBlimited data1% model · 2% market+4900at build
  • 31Asante Samuel Jr.PIT · CBlimited data1% model · 1% market+6893at build
  • 32Quincy RileyNO · CBlimited data1% model · 1% market+6893at build
  • 33Justin ReidNO · Slimited data1% model · 1% market+9900at build
  • 34Kool-Aid McKinstryNO · CBlimited data1% model · 1% market+9900at build
  • 35Jaquan BriskerPIT · SAFlimited data1% model · 2% market+5395at build
  • 36Jonas SankerNO · SAFlimited data1% model · 2% market+5888at build
  • 37Julian BlackmonNO · SAFlimited data1% model · 2% market+6394at build
  • 38Patrick QueenPIT · LBlimited data0% model · 2% market+5395at build
  • 39Payton WilsonPIT · LBlimited data0% model · 1% market+7419at build
  • 40Pete WernerNO · LBlimited data0% model · 1% market+8909at build
  • 41Chase YoungNO · DElimited data0% model · 1% market+14825at build
  • 42Carl GrandersonNO · DElimited data0% model · 0% market+27678at build
  • 43Cameron JordanNO · LBlimited data0% model · 0% market+49900at build
  • 44Vernon BroughtonNO · DTlimited data0% model · 0% market+49900at build
First TD scorer market (29)

Ranked by market price. Our model covers anytime TD only, so the model column shows each player's anytime TD probability for context.

San Francisco 49ers @ Atlanta Falcons

Sun 1:00 PM ET
Where the model sees valuemodel probability vs market-implied, by edge
model TD% market implied
Full model board · all 27 players (ranked by Model TD%)
#PlayerModel vs marketOdds
  • 1Bijan RobinsonDylan's pickmodel's #1ATL · RB59% model · 73% market-270stale
  • 2Christian McCaffreyDylan's pickSF · RB58% model · 68% market-217stale
  • 3George KittleSF · TE45% model · 43% market+132stale
  • 4Drake LondonATL · WRoverpriced — value at +155 or better39% model · 40% market+150stale
  • 5Kyle PittsATL · TE25% model · 24% market+320stale
  • 6Jahan DotsonATL · WR25% model · 22% market+360stale
  • 7Brock PurdySF · QB20% model · 25% market+300stale
  • 8Brian RobinsonATL · RB18% model · 28% market+260stale
  • 9Kaelon BlackSF · RB18% model · 22% market+360stale
  • 10Jordan WatkinsSF · WR17% model · 17% market+490stale
  • 11Christian KirkSF · WR17% model · 21% market+370stale
  • 12Brandin CooksSF · WR14% model · 22% market+360stale
  • 13Olamide ZaccheausATL · WR13% model · 9% market+1049stale
  • 14Luke FarrellSF · TE10% model · 10% market+950stale
  • 15Austin HooperATL · TE10% model · 9% market+1049stale
  • 16Michael Penix Jr.ATL · QB9% model · 10% market+880stale
  • 17Zachariah BranchATL · WR9% model · 13% market+680stale
  • 18Jordan JamesSF · RBlimited data8% model · 5% market+2098stale
  • 19Malik TurnerSF · WR8% model · 4% market+2603stale
  • 20Charlie WoernerATL · TE8% model · 8% market+1200stale
  • 21Jacob CowingSF · WR7% model · 13% market+680stale
  • 22Chris BlairATL · WR6% model · 4% market+2400stale
  • 23Nick MuseATL · TE6% model · 3% market+3105stale
  • 24Kyle JuszczykSF · FBlimited data5% model · 16% market+520stale
  • 25Brayden WillisSF · TE4% model · 4% market+2400stale
  • 26Jessie BatesATL · FSlimited data1% model · 2% market+5888stale
  • 27Xavier WattsATL · SAFlimited data1% model · 2% market+4900stale
First TD scorer market (25)

Ranked by market price. Our model covers anytime TD only, so the model column shows each player's anytime TD probability for context.

Cleveland Browns @ Tennessee Titans

Sun 1:00 PM ET
Where the model sees valuemodel probability vs market-implied, by edge
model TD% market implied
Full model board · all 28 players (ranked by Model TD%)
#PlayerModel vs marketOdds
First TD scorer market (27)

Ranked by market price. Our model covers anytime TD only, so the model column shows each player's anytime TD probability for context.

Indianapolis Colts @ Minnesota Vikings

Sun 1:00 PM ET
Dylan's best play · Anytime TD
Aaron JonesMIN · RB
52.4%our model
vs
38.2%market implied
+14.2ptsmodel edge
+162price at build

Our calibrated model gives Aaron Jones a 52.4% shot at the end zone, while the market is only pricing 38.2%. That gap is the play.

Where the model sees valuemodel probability vs market-implied, by edge
  • Aaron JonesDylan's best playmodel's #1MIN · RB52% model · 38% market+14.2pts+162at build
  • Jauan JenningsMIN · WR25% model · 13% market+11.7pts+660at build
  • Gavin BartholomewMIN · TElimited data15% model · 10% market+5.4pts+900at build
  • Laquon TreadwellIND · WR14% model · 11% market+3.4pts+800at build
  • Ben YurosekMIN · TE10% model · 7% market+3.0pts+1301at build
  • Josh DownsIND · WR23% model · 21% market+1.7pts+380at build
model TD% market implied
Full model board · all 49 players (ranked by Model TD%)
#PlayerModel vs marketOdds
  • 1Aaron JonesDylan's best playmodel's #1MIN · RB52% model · 38% market+162at build
  • 2Jonathan TaylorIND · RBoverpriced — value at +107 or better48% model · 52% market-109at build
  • 3Justin JeffersonMIN · WRoverpriced — value at +207 or better33% model · 35% market+184at build
  • 4Jordan MasonMIN · RBoverpriced — value at +251 or better28% model · 35% market+186at build
  • 5Jordan AddisonMIN · WR27% model · 26% market+285at build
  • 6Jauan JenningsMIN · WR25% model · 13% market+660at build
  • 7Josh DownsIND · WR23% model · 21% market+380at build
  • 8Tyler WarrenIND · TE21% model · 31% market+225stale
  • 9Keenan AllenIND · WR17% model · 21% market+370at build
  • 10Kyler MurrayMIN · QB16% model · 19% market+430at build
  • 11Gavin BartholomewMIN · TElimited data15% model · 10% market+900at build
  • 12Laquon TreadwellIND · WR14% model · 11% market+800at build
  • 13T.J. HockensonMIN · TE13% model · 28% market+255at build
  • 14Daniel JonesIND · QB12% model · 12% market+720at build
  • 15Tai FeltonMIN · WR12% model · 11% market+780at build
  • 16Ben YurosekMIN · TE10% model · 7% market+1301at build
  • 17DJ GiddensIND · RB9% model · 3% market+3702at build
  • 18Demond ClaiborneMIN · RB8% model · 10% market+880at build
  • 19Seth McGowanIND · RB8% model · 7% market+1399at build
  • 20Myles PriceMIN · WR7% model · 9% market+1049at build
  • 21Will MalloryIND · TE7% model · 14% market+620at build
  • 22Mo Alie-CoxIND · TE7% model · 12% market+760at build
  • 23Deion BurksIND · WR6% model · 8% market+1100at build
  • 24Max BredesonMIN · RBlimited data6% model · 5% market+1801at build
  • 25Ashton DulinIND · WR4% model · 8% market+1100at build
  • 26Pharaoh BrownIND · TE3% model · 3% market+3497at build
  • 27Andrew OgletreeIND · TE3% model · 7% market+1250at build
  • 28Anthony GouldIND · WR3% model · 3% market+3497at build
  • 29Harrison SmithMIN · FSlimited data1% model · 1% market+6893at build
  • 30Byron MurphyMIN · CBlimited data1% model · 2% market+4508at build
  • 31Isaiah RodgersMIN · CBlimited data1% model · 2% market+4900at build
  • 32Justin WalleyIND · CBlimited data1% model · 1% market+8375at build
  • 33Charvarius WardIND · CBlimited data1% model · 1% market+11948at build
  • 34Josh MetellusMIN · SAFlimited data1% model · 2% market+4900at build
  • 35A.J. HaulcyIND · SAFlimited data1% model · 1% market+8375at build
  • 36Theo JacksonMIN · DBlimited data1% model · 1% market+9424at build
  • 37Andrew Van GinkelMIN · OLBlimited data1% model · 1% market+7900at build
  • 38Cam BynumIND · UNKlimited data1% model · 1% market+7419at build
  • 39Blake CashmanMIN · LBlimited data0% model · 2% market+6394at build
  • 40Eric WilsonMIN · LBlimited data0% model · 1% market+8375at build
  • 41Akeem Davis-GaitherIND · LBlimited data0% model · 1% market+8909at build
  • 42Dallas TurnerMIN · LBlimited data0% model · 1% market+19900at build
  • 43Laiatu LatuIND · DElimited data0% model · 0% market+29312at build
  • 44Jaylahn TuimoloauIND · DElimited data0% model · 0% market+30203at build
  • 45Jalen RedmondMIN · DLlimited data0% model · 1% market+10889at build
  • 46Levi Drake RodriguezMIN · DLlimited data0% model · 0% market+49900at build
  • 47Tyrion Ingram-DawkinsMIN · DTlimited data0% model · 0% market+26927at build
  • 48DeForest BucknerIND · DTlimited data0% model · 0% market+30203at build
  • 49Grover StewartIND · DTlimited data0% model · 0% market+49900at build
First TD scorer market (28)

Ranked by market price. Our model covers anytime TD only, so the model column shows each player's anytime TD probability for context.

Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets

Sun 1:00 PM ET
Where the model sees valuemodel probability vs market-implied, by edge
model TD% market implied
Full model board · all 50 players (ranked by Model TD%)
#PlayerModel vs marketOdds
  • 1Garrett Wilsonmodel's #1NYJ · WR38% model · 34% market+190at build
  • 2Braelon AllenNYJ · RBoverpriced — value at +167 or better38% model · 51% market-105at build
  • 3Breece HallNYJ · RBoverpriced — value at +186 or better35% model · 51% market-105at build
  • 4Omar Cooper Jr.NYJ · WRlimited data27% model · 19% market+430at build
  • 5Malik WillisMIA · QB25% model · 20% market+390at build
  • 6Malik WashingtonMIA · WR22% model · 20% market+390at build
  • 7Adonai MitchellNYJ · WR21% model · 20% market+410at build
  • 8Ollie Gordon IIMIA · RB20% model · 32% market+210at build
  • 9Kenyon SadiqNYJ · TE16% model · 21% market+370at build
  • 10Caleb DouglasMIA · WRlimited data15% model · 19% market+440at build
  • 11Tim PatrickNYJ · WR15% model · 7% market+1250at build
  • 12Mason TaylorNYJ · TE14% model · 19% market+430at build
  • 13Kevin Coleman Jr.MIA · WR13% model · 8% market+1150at build
  • 14Chris BellMIA · WR13% model · 13% market+660at build
  • 15Greg DulcichMIA · TE12% model · 18% market+470at build
  • 16Isaiah WilliamsNYJ · WR11% model · 7% market+1250at build
  • 17Isaiah DavisNYJ · RB9% model · 15% market+580at build
  • 18Geno SmithNYJ · QB8% model · 11% market+840at build
  • 19Jelani WoodsNYJ · TE7% model · 5% market+2098at build
  • 20Jaylen WrightMIA · RB7% model · 16% market+540at build
  • 21Jeremy RuckertNYJ · TE7% model · 6% market+1601at build
  • 22Kene NwangwuNYJ · RB6% model · 4% market+2497at build
  • 23Jalen TolbertMIA · WR6% model · 4% market+2497at build
  • 24Will KacmarekMIA · TE6% model · 9% market+1000at build
  • 25Justin JolyMIA · TElimited data5% model · 3% market+3301at build
  • 26Andrew BeckNYJ · FBlimited data5% model · 3% market+3301at build
  • 27Jared WayneMIA · WR5% model · 4% market+2497at build
  • 28DJ HermanMIA · RBlimited data4% model · 3% market+3105at build
  • 29Seydou TraoreMIA · TElimited data3% model · 3% market+3301at build
  • 30Minkah FitzpatrickNYJ · FSlimited data1% model · 2% market+5888at build
  • 31Brandon StephensNYJ · CBlimited data1% model · 2% market+5395at build
  • 32Azareye'h ThomasNYJ · CBlimited data1% model · 2% market+6394at build
  • 33Jason Marshall Jr.MIA · CBlimited data1% model · 1% market+9424at build
  • 34Chris JohnsonMIA · CBlimited data1% model · 1% market+9900at build
  • 35Dane BeltonNYJ · SAFlimited data1% model · 2% market+4102at build
  • 36Dante Trader Jr.MIA · SAFlimited data1% model · 2% market+6394at build
  • 37Michael TaaffeMIA · SAFlimited data1% model · 1% market+16849at build
  • 38Demario DavisNYJ · OLBlimited data1% model · 2% market+5888at build
  • 39JuJu BrentsMIA · UNKlimited data1% model · 1% market+11948at build
  • 40Jacob RodriguezMIA · LBlimited data0% model · 2% market+6394at build
  • 41Jamien SherwoodNYJ · LBlimited data0% model · 1% market+7900at build
  • 42Jordyn BrooksMIA · LBlimited data0% model · 1% market+13985at build
  • 43David BaileyNYJ · LBlimited data0% model · 1% market+14825at build
  • 44Kingsley EnagbareNYJ · LBlimited data0% model · 0% market+20733at build
  • 45Zach SielerMIA · DElimited data0% model · 0% market+27678at build
  • 46Chop RobinsonMIA · LBlimited data0% model · 0% market+29312at build
  • 47Joshua UcheMIA · LBlimited data0% model · 0% market+30203at build
  • 48T'Vondre SweatNYJ · DTlimited data0% model · 0% market+29312at build
  • 49Harrison PhillipsNYJ · DTlimited data0% model · 0% market+30203at build
  • 50Jordan PhillipsMIA · DTlimited data0% model · 0% market+49900at build
First TD scorer market (29)

Ranked by market price. Our model covers anytime TD only, so the model column shows each player's anytime TD probability for context.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Carolina Panthers

Sun 1:00 PM ET
Where the model sees valuemodel probability vs market-implied, by edge
  • Ja'Tavion SandersCAR · TE12% model · 7% market+4.6pts+1250at build
  • John Metchie IIICAR · WR13% model · 10% market+3.5pts+950at build
  • Bryce YoungCAR · QB15% model · 12% market+3.3pts+740at build
  • Bucky IrvingTB · RB47% model · 43% market+3.0pts+130at build
model TD% market implied
Full model board · all 41 players (ranked by Model TD%)
#PlayerModel vs marketOdds
  • 1Chuba HubbardDylan's pickmodel's #1CAR · RB49% model · 52% market-106at build
  • 2Bucky IrvingTB · RB47% model · 43% market+130at build
  • 3Tetairoa McMillanCAR · WRoverpriced — value at +188 or better35% model · 39% market+158at build
  • 4Jalen CokerCAR · WRoverpriced — value at +252 or better28% model · 34% market+192at build
  • 5Emeka EgbukaTB · WRoverpriced — value at +300 or better25% model · 31% market+225at build
  • 6Cade OttonTB · TE22% model · 28% market+255at build
  • 7Chris Godwin Jr.TB · WR21% model · 27% market+265at build
  • 8Darren WallerCAR · TE20% model · 24% market+310at build
  • 9Tommy TrembleCAR · TE16% model · 24% market+320at build
  • 10Bryce YoungCAR · QB15% model · 12% market+740at build
  • 11John Metchie IIICAR · WR13% model · 10% market+950at build
  • 12Ja'Tavion SandersCAR · TE12% model · 7% market+1250at build
  • 13Jalon DanielsTB · QB12% model · 24% market+320stale
  • 14Mitchell EvansCAR · TE12% model · 13% market+700at build
  • 15Tez JohnsonTB · WR10% model · 18% market+470at build
  • 16Baker MayfieldTB · QB10% model · 17% market+500at build
  • 17Brycen TremayneCAR · WR9% model · 7% market+1250at build
  • 18Sean TuckerTB · RB7% model · 13% market+660at build
  • 19David MooreCAR · WR7% model · 5% market+1900at build
  • 20AJ DillonCAR · RB6% model · 10% market+880at build
  • 21Trevor EtienneCAR · RB6% model · 6% market+1699at build
  • 22Feleipe FranksCAR · TE4% model · 2% market+4102at build
  • 23Anthony Tyus IIICAR · RBlimited data4% model · 6% market+1699at build
  • 24Payne DurhamTB · TE4% model · 5% market+2098at build
  • 25Bauer SharpTB · TE4% model · 4% market+2497at build
  • 26Ko KieftTB · TE3% model · 5% market+1900at build
  • 27Kameron JohnsonTB · WR3% model · 7% market+1250at build
  • 28Will Lee IIICAR · CBlimited data1% model · 3% market+3497at build
  • 29Jacob ParrishTB · CBlimited data1% model · 2% market+5395at build
  • 30Zyon McCollumTB · CBlimited data1% model · 1% market+7900at build
  • 31Tykee SmithTB · SAFlimited data1% model · 2% market+6394at build
  • 32Tre'von MoehrigCAR · SAFlimited data1% model · 1% market+7419at build
  • 33Nick ScottCAR · SAFlimited data1% model · 1% market+7900at build
  • 34Zakee WheatleyCAR · SAFlimited data1% model · 1% market+7900at build
  • 35Ifeatu MelifonwuTB · SAFlimited data1% model · 1% market+8375at build
  • 36David Sills VTB · UNKlimited data1% model · 7% market+1250at build
  • 37Bobby OkerekeCAR · ILBlimited data1% model · 1% market+6893at build
  • 38Alex AnzaloneTB · MLBlimited data1% model · 1% market+9424at build
  • 39Devin LloydCAR · LBlimited data0% model · 1% market+7419at build
  • 40Josiah TrotterTB · LBlimited data0% model · 1% market+12887at build
  • 41Vita VeaTB · DTlimited data0% model · 0% market+30203at build
First TD scorer market (28)

Ranked by market price. Our model covers anytime TD only, so the model column shows each player's anytime TD probability for context.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens

Sun 1:00 PM ET
Where the model sees valuemodel probability vs market-implied, by edge
  • Devontez WalkerBAL · WR17% model · 8% market+9.4pts+1200at build
  • Mitchell TinsleyCIN · WR12% model · 4% market+7.7pts+2497at build
  • Nick VannettBAL · TE11% model · 4% market+6.3pts+2199at build
  • Zay FlowersDylan's pickBAL · WR41% model · 37% market+4.1pts+174at build
  • Josh CuevasBAL · TE13% model · 9% market+3.5pts+1000at build
  • Matthew HibnerBAL · TElimited data12% model · 9% market+3.5pts+1049at build
  • Justice HillBAL · RB17% model · 14% market+3.0pts+620at build
model TD% market implied

Derrick Henry is the model's most likely scorer (54.0%) — but not a pick at today's price: the market is asking more than our number. Good pick, wrong price. Value opens at -117 or better.

Full model board · all 37 players (ranked by Model TD%)
#PlayerModel vs marketOdds
  • 1Derrick Henrymodel's #1BAL · RBoverpriced — value at -117 or better54% model · 68% market-213at build
  • 2Chase BrownCIN · RBoverpriced — value at +113 or better47% model · 51% market-105at build
  • 3Zay FlowersDylan's pickBAL · WR41% model · 37% market+174at build
  • 4Ja'Marr ChaseCIN · WRoverpriced — value at +182 or better36% model · 49% market+104at build
  • 5Tee HigginsCIN · WRoverpriced — value at +189 or better35% model · 41% market+144at build
  • 6Mark AndrewsBAL · TE23% model · 30% market+230at build
  • 7Samaje PerineCIN · RB23% model · 26% market+290at build
  • 8Mike GesickiCIN · TE19% model · 23% market+330at build
  • 9Devontez WalkerBAL · WR17% model · 8% market+1200at build
  • 10Justice HillBAL · RB17% model · 14% market+620at build
  • 11Ja'Kobi LaneBAL · WRlimited data16% model · 20% market+390at build
  • 12Rashod BatemanBAL · WR13% model · 17% market+490at build
  • 13Josh CuevasBAL · TE13% model · 9% market+1000at build
  • 14Matthew HibnerBAL · TElimited data12% model · 9% market+1049at build
  • 15Mitchell TinsleyCIN · WR12% model · 4% market+2497at build
  • 16Joe BurrowCIN · QB11% model · 11% market+800at build
  • 17Dohnte MeyersCIN · WR11% model · 20% market+410at build
  • 18Nick VannettBAL · TE11% model · 4% market+2199at build
  • 19Erick AllCIN · TE10% model · 13% market+700at build
  • 20Drew SampleCIN · TE10% model · 10% market+950at build
  • 21Lamar JacksonBAL · QB10% model · 31% market+220at build
  • 22Jack EndriesCIN · TElimited data9% model · 6% market+1699at build
  • 23Elijah SarrattBAL · WRlimited data8% model · 8% market+1200at build
  • 24Rasheen AliBAL · RB6% model · 2% market+4508at build
  • 25Tahj BrooksCIN · RB6% model · 3% market+2903at build
  • 26LaJohntay WesterBAL · WR5% model · 7% market+1399at build
  • 27Colbie YoungCIN · WRlimited data3% model · 8% market+1100at build
  • 28Marlon HumphreyBAL · CBlimited data1% model · 1% market+7900at build
  • 29Nate WigginsBAL · CBlimited data1% model · 1% market+7900at build
  • 30Malaki StarksBAL · SAFlimited data1% model · 2% market+6394at build
  • 31Kyle HamiltonBAL · SAFlimited data1% model · 1% market+7900at build
  • 32Roquan SmithBAL · ILBlimited data1% model · 1% market+9900at build
  • 33Trenton SimpsonBAL · LBlimited data0% model · 1% market+9900at build
  • 34Trey HendricksonBAL · LBlimited data0% model · 1% market+16849at build
  • 35Calais CampbellBAL · DElimited data0% model · 0% market+30203at build
  • 36Nnamdi MadubuikeBAL · DTlimited data0% model · 0% market+30203at build
  • 37Travis JonesBAL · DTlimited data0% model · 0% market+30203at build
First TD scorer market (27)

Ranked by market price. Our model covers anytime TD only, so the model column shows each player's anytime TD probability for context.

New York Giants @ Houston Texans

Sun 1:00 PM ET
Where the model sees valuemodel probability vs market-implied, by edge
  • Tank DellHOU · WR29% model · 13% market+16.1pts+700at build
  • Cam SkatteboDylan's pickNYG · RB30% model · 22% market+7.4pts+350at build
  • Xavier HutchinsonHOU · WR20% model · 14% market+6.9pts+640at build
  • Kayshon BoutteHOU · WR18% model · 13% market+5.0pts+700at build
  • Malachi FieldsNYG · WR17% model · 13% market+4.8pts+700at build
  • Jaylin NoelHOU · WR22% model · 19% market+3.0pts+420at build
  • Foster MoreauHOU · TE17% model · 16% market+1.6pts+540at build
model TD% market implied

Woody Marks is the model's most likely scorer (42.7%) — but not a pick at today's price: the market is asking more than our number. Good pick, wrong price. Value opens at +134 or better.

Full model board · all 47 players (ranked by Model TD%)
#PlayerModel vs marketOdds
  • 1Woody Marksmodel's #1HOU · RBoverpriced — value at +134 or better43% model · 55% market-120at build
  • 2Nico CollinsHOU · WRoverpriced — value at +166 or better38% model · 43% market+130at build
  • 3Cam SkatteboDylan's pickNYG · RB30% model · 22% market+350at build
  • 4Tank DellHOU · WR29% model · 13% market+700at build
  • 5Malik NabersNYG · WRoverpriced — value at +251 or better28% model · 29% market+245at build
  • 6Isaiah LikelyNYG · TE24% model · 29% market+250at build
  • 7Jaylin NoelHOU · WR22% model · 19% market+420at build
  • 8David MontgomeryHOU · RB21% model · 60% market-152stale
  • 9Xavier HutchinsonHOU · WR20% model · 14% market+640at build
  • 10Dalton SchultzHOU · TE20% model · 31% market+225at build
  • 11Kayshon BoutteHOU · WR18% model · 13% market+700at build
  • 12Malachi FieldsNYG · WR17% model · 13% market+700at build
  • 13Foster MoreauHOU · TE17% model · 16% market+540at build
  • 14C.J. StroudHOU · QB15% model · 17% market+500at build
  • 15Marvin Harrison Jr.HOU · WR15% model · 26% market+280at build
  • 16Devin SingletaryNYG · RB12% model · 14% market+620at build
  • 17Tyrone Tracy Jr.NYG · RB11% model · 20% market+410at build
  • 18J.J. McCarthyNYG · QB9% model · 17% market+490at build
  • 19Cade StoverHOU · TE9% model · 9% market+1000at build
  • 20Darnell MooneyNYG · WR8% model · 11% market+800at build
  • 21Dare OgunbowaleHOU · RB8% model · 19% market+430at build
  • 22Theo JohnsonNYG · TE8% model · 12% market+740at build
  • 23Brevin JordanHOU · TE8% model · 4% market+2497at build
  • 24Thomas Fidone IINYG · TElimited data4% model · 5% market+1801at build
  • 25Charlie JonesNYG · WR4% model · 7% market+1301at build
  • 26Patrick RicardNYG · RB4% model · 3% market+3497at build
  • 27Chris ManhertzNYG · TE3% model · 4% market+2199at build
  • 28Kamari LassiterHOU · CBlimited data1% model · 3% market+2903at build
  • 29Derek Stingley Jr.HOU · CBlimited data1% model · 3% market+3497at build
  • 30Deonte BanksNYG · CBlimited data1% model · 1% market+10889at build
  • 31Calen BullockHOU · SAFlimited data1% model · 2% market+4102at build
  • 32Jevon HollandNYG · SAFlimited data1% model · 2% market+5888at build
  • 33Henry To'oTo'oHOU · LBlimited data0% model · 1% market+6893at build
  • 34Azeez Al-ShaairHOU · LBlimited data0% model · 1% market+7900stale
  • 35Arvell ReeseNYG · LBlimited data0% model · 1% market+8909at build
  • 36Danielle HunterHOU · DElimited data0% model · 1% market+8909at build
  • 37Will Anderson Jr.HOU · DElimited data0% model · 1% market+14825at build
  • 38Micah McFaddenNYG · LBlimited data0% model · 0% market+20733at build
  • 39Abdul CarterNYG · LBlimited data0% model · 0% market+30203at build
  • 40Jadeveon ClowneyHOU · DElimited data0% model · 0% market+30203at build
  • 41Kayvon ThibodeauxNYG · LBlimited data0% model · 0% market+30203at build
  • 42Logan HallHOU · DElimited data0% model · 0% market+30203at build
  • 43Shelby HarrisNYG · DElimited data0% model · 0% market+49900at build
  • 44Sheldon RankinsHOU · DTlimited data0% model · 1% market+16029at build
  • 45Tommy TogiaiHOU · DTlimited data0% model · 0% market+29312at build
  • 46DJ ReaderNYG · DTlimited data0% model · 0% market+30203at build
  • 47Kayden McDonaldHOU · DTlimited data0% model · 0% market+49900at build
First TD scorer market (27)

Ranked by market price. Our model covers anytime TD only, so the model column shows each player's anytime TD probability for context.

Denver Broncos @ Arizona Cardinals

Sun 4:05 PM ET
Where the model sees valuemodel probability vs market-implied, by edge
  • RJ HarveyDylan's pickDEN · RB36% model · 27% market+9.7pts+275at build
  • Michael WilsonDylan's pickARI · WR34% model · 29% market+4.9pts+240at build
  • Jacoby BrissettARI · QB12% model · 11% market+1.1pts+800at build
model TD% market implied

Trey McBride is the model's most likely scorer (41.0%) — but not a pick at today's price: the market is asking more than our number. Good pick, wrong price. Value opens at +144 or better.

Full model board · all 45 players (ranked by Model TD%)
#PlayerModel vs marketOdds
  • 1Trey McBridemodel's #1ARI · TEoverpriced — value at +144 or better41% model · 43% market+134at build
  • 2J.K. DobbinsDEN · RBoverpriced — value at +169 or better37% model · 45% market+124at build
  • 3RJ HarveyDylan's pickDEN · RB36% model · 27% market+275at build
  • 4Michael WilsonDylan's pickARI · WR34% model · 29% market+240at build
  • 5Jeremiyah LoveARI · RBoverpriced — value at +266 or better27% model · 39% market+154stale
  • 6Jaylen WaddleDEN · WR24% model · 35% market+184at build
  • 7Courtland SuttonDEN · WR24% model · 29% market+240at build
  • 8Tyler AllgeierARI · RB21% model · 33% market+200at build
  • 9Jonah ColemanDEN · RBlimited data17% model · 21% market+370at build
  • 10Bo NixDEN · QB17% model · 21% market+380at build
  • 11Troy FranklinDEN · WR14% model · 14% market+600at build
  • 12Evan EngramDEN · TE13% model · 20% market+390at build
  • 13Kendrick BourneARI · WR12% model · 22% market+360at build
  • 14Jacoby BrissettARI · QB12% model · 11% market+800at build
  • 15Elijah HigginsARI · TE10% model · 11% market+800at build
  • 16Nate AdkinsDEN · TE10% model · 9% market+1000at build
  • 17Marvin Mims Jr.DEN · WR9% model · 16% market+540at build
  • 18Jalen BrooksARI · WR9% model · 13% market+700at build
  • 19Shawn BowmanARI · TElimited data8% model · 0% market+49900at build
  • 20Reggie VirgilARI · WRlimited data7% model · 5% market+1900at build
  • 21Teagan QuitorianoARI · TE7% model · 6% market+1601at build
  • 22Evan HullARI · RB7% model · 2% market+5395stale
  • 23Adam TrautmanDEN · TE6% model · 11% market+800at build
  • 24Lil'Jordan HumphreyDEN · WR6% model · 6% market+1450at build
  • 25Adam PrenticeDEN · FBlimited data5% model · 5% market+2001at build
  • 26Simi FehokoARI · WR4% model · 3% market+3900at build
  • 27Devin DuvernayARI · WR3% model · 5% market+2001at build
  • 28Denzel BurkeARI · CBlimited data1% model · 2% market+6394at build
  • 29Riley MossDEN · CBlimited data1% model · 2% market+6394at build
  • 30Jahdae BarronDEN · CBlimited data1% model · 1% market+8375at build
  • 31Budda BakerARI · Slimited data1% model · 1% market+8909at build
  • 32Ja'Quan McMillianDEN · CBlimited data1% model · 1% market+8909at build
  • 33Kris Abrams-DraineDEN · CBlimited data1% model · 1% market+13985at build
  • 34Brandon JonesDEN · SAFlimited data1% model · 2% market+5395at build
  • 35Taylor RappDEN · SAFlimited data1% model · 2% market+5395at build
  • 36Alex SingletonDEN · LBlimited data0% model · 1% market+8375at build
  • 37Mack WilsonARI · LBlimited data0% model · 1% market+8375at build
  • 38Justin StrnadDEN · LBlimited data0% model · 1% market+8909at build
  • 39Jack GibbensARI · LBlimited data0% model · 1% market+14825at build
  • 40Nik BonittoDEN · LBlimited data0% model · 0% market+22122at build
  • 41Josh SweatARI · LBlimited data0% model · 0% market+30203at build
  • 42Zach AllenDEN · DElimited data0% model · 0% market+30203at build
  • 43Dante StillsARI · DTlimited data0% model · 0% market+30203at build
  • 44Eyioma UwazurikeDEN · DTlimited data0% model · 0% market+30203at build
  • 45D.J. JonesDEN · DTlimited data0% model · 0% market+49900at build
First TD scorer market (27)

Ranked by market price. Our model covers anytime TD only, so the model column shows each player's anytime TD probability for context.

Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions

Sun 4:25 PM ET
Where the model sees valuemodel probability vs market-implied, by edge
  • Josh WhyleGB · TE17% model · 6% market+10.3pts+1500at build
  • MarShawn LloydGB · RB28% model · 20% market+7.5pts+390at build
  • Sam LaPortaDylan's pickDET · TE43% model · 37% market+5.8pts+170at build
  • Brock WrightDET · TE16% model · 12% market+4.0pts+740at build
  • Sione VakiDET · RB14% model · 12% market+1.8pts+740at build
model TD% market implied

Jahmyr Gibbs is the model's most likely scorer (60.1%) — but not a pick at today's price: the market is asking more than our number. Good pick, wrong price. Value opens at -151 or better.

Full model board · all 48 players (ranked by Model TD%)
#PlayerModel vs marketOdds
  • 1Jahmyr Gibbsmodel's #1DET · RBoverpriced — value at -151 or better60% model · 77% market-333at build
  • 2Amon-Ra St. BrownDET · WRoverpriced — value at +133 or better43% model · 57% market-135at build
  • 3Sam LaPortaDylan's pickDET · TE43% model · 37% market+170at build
  • 4Christian WatsonGB · WRoverpriced — value at +140 or better42% model · 45% market+120at build
  • 5Jameson WilliamsDET · WR35% model · 34% market+190at build
  • 6Matthew GoldenGB · WR34% model · 40% market+150at build
  • 7Tucker KraftGB · TE33% model · 37% market+174at build
  • 8MarShawn LloydGB · RB28% model · 20% market+390at build
  • 9Isaac TeSlaaDET · WR22% model · 21% market+370at build
  • 10Pierre StrongGB · RB18% model · 22% market+350at build
  • 11Josh WhyleGB · TE17% model · 6% market+1500at build
  • 12Brock WrightDET · TE16% model · 12% market+740at build
  • 13Sione VakiDET · RB14% model · 12% market+740at build
  • 14Savion WilliamsGB · WR12% model · 21% market+370at build
  • 15Kaleb JohnsonGB · RB12% model · 17% market+500at build
  • 16Jordan LoveGB · QB11% model · 11% market+800at build
  • 17Mark RedmanGB · TElimited data11% model · 10% market+900at build
  • 18Jared GoffDET · QB9% model · 10% market+860at build
  • 19Bo MeltonGB · WR9% model · 8% market+1100at build
  • 20Jonnu SmithGB · TE8% model · 10% market+900at build
  • 21Tay MartinDET · WR8% model · 4% market+2497at build
  • 22Jacob SaylorsDET · RB7% model · 4% market+2497at build
  • 23J. Michael SturdivantGB · WR6% model · 4% market+2199at build
  • 24Jackson MeeksDET · TElimited data6% model · 5% market+2001at build
  • 25Coleman OwenGB · WRlimited data6% model · 4% market+2199stale
  • 26DeAndre CarterDET · WR5% model · 5% market+1801at build
  • 27Ennis Rakestraw Jr.DET · CBlimited data1% model · 1% market+8375at build
  • 28Brandon CisseGB · CBlimited data1% model · 1% market+9900at build
  • 29Evan WilliamsGB · SAFlimited data1% model · 2% market+4900at build
  • 30Chuck ClarkDET · SAFlimited data1% model · 1% market+6893at build
  • 31Keisean NixonGB · DBlimited data1% model · 1% market+6893at build
  • 32Xavier McKinneyGB · SAFlimited data1% model · 1% market+7900at build
  • 33Javon BullardGB · SAFlimited data1% model · 1% market+9900at build
  • 34Zaire FranklinGB · OLBlimited data1% model · 2% market+6394stale
  • 35Derrick BarnesDET · LBlimited data0% model · 1% market+6893at build
  • 36Jack CampbellDET · LBlimited data0% model · 1% market+7419at build
  • 37D.J. WonnumDET · DElimited data0% model · 0% market+20733at build
  • 38Aidan HutchinsonDET · DElimited data0% model · 0% market+22122at build
  • 39Barryn SorrellGB · DElimited data0% model · 0% market+30203at build
  • 40Brenton Cox Jr.GB · DElimited data0% model · 0% market+30203at build
  • 41Malcolm RodriguezDET · LBlimited data0% model · 0% market+30203at build
  • 42Dani Dennis-SuttonGB · LBlimited data0% model · 0% market+49900stale
  • 43Lukas Van NessGB · LBlimited data0% model · 0% market+49900at build
  • 44Alim McNeillDET · DTlimited data0% model · 0% market+26216at build
  • 45Karl BrooksGB · DTlimited data0% model · 0% market+30203at build
  • 46Tyleik WilliamsDET · DTlimited data0% model · 0% market+30203at build
  • 47Chris McClellanGB · DTlimited data0% model · 0% market+49900stale
  • 48Devonte WyattGB · DTlimited data0% model · 0% market+49900at build
First TD scorer market (26)

Ranked by market price. Our model covers anytime TD only, so the model column shows each player's anytime TD probability for context.

Los Angeles Rams @ Las Vegas Raiders

Sun 4:25 PM ET
Where the model sees valuemodel probability vs market-implied, by edge
  • Max KlareLAR · TElimited data12% model · 4% market+7.5pts+2199at build
  • CJ DanielsLAR · WRlimited data12% model · 6% market+5.8pts+1500at build
  • Tre TuckerDylan's pickLV · WR27% model · 24% market+2.9pts+320at build
  • Jalen NailorLV · WR18% model · 16% market+2.4pts+540at build
  • Michael MayerLV · TE26% model · 24% market+2.2pts+320at build
model TD% market implied

Kyren Williams is the model's most likely scorer (56.6%) — but not a pick at today's price: the market is asking more than our number. Good pick, wrong price. Value opens at -130 or better.

Full model board · all 44 players (ranked by Model TD%)
#PlayerModel vs marketOdds
  • 1Kyren Williamsmodel's #1LAR · RBoverpriced — value at -130 or better57% model · 61% market-156at build
  • 2Ashton JeantyLV · RBoverpriced — value at -100 or better50% model · 57% market-135at build
  • 3Puka NacuaLAR · WRoverpriced — value at +115 or better47% model · 51% market-105at build
  • 4Brock BowersLV · TEoverpriced — value at +119 or better46% model · 49% market+104at build
  • 5Blake CorumLAR · RBoverpriced — value at +215 or better32% model · 37% market+170at build
  • 6Tyler HigbeeLAR · TE30% model · 33% market+200at build
  • 7Tre TuckerDylan's pickLV · WR27% model · 24% market+320at build
  • 8Michael MayerLV · TE26% model · 24% market+320at build
  • 9Colby ParkinsonLAR · TE25% model · 30% market+230at build
  • 10Mike Washington Jr.LV · RB20% model · 23% market+330at build
  • 11Jalen NailorLV · WR18% model · 16% market+540at build
  • 12Konata MumpfieldLAR · WR17% model · 31% market+220at build
  • 13CJ DanielsLAR · WRlimited data12% model · 6% market+1500at build
  • 14Max KlareLAR · TElimited data12% model · 4% market+2199at build
  • 15Davis AllenLAR · TE11% model · 16% market+540at build
  • 16Cody WhiteLV · WR10% model · 11% market+840at build
  • 17Tutu AtwellLAR · WR9% model · 16% market+540at build
  • 18Kirk CousinsLV · QB9% model · 5% market+1900at build
  • 19Dont'e Thornton Jr.LV · WR8% model · 17% market+500at build
  • 20Matthew StaffordLAR · QB8% model · 5% market+2001at build
  • 21Dylan LaubeLV · RB7% model · 9% market+1000at build
  • 22Ian ThomasLV · TE7% model · 6% market+1601at build
  • 23Malik BensonLV · WR7% model · 6% market+1699at build
  • 24Dareke YoungLV · WR6% model · 5% market+1801at build
  • 25Dean ConnorsLAR · RBlimited data5% model · 2% market+4305at build
  • 26Connor HeywardLV · FBlimited data5% model · 8% market+1200at build
  • 27Alex BachmanLAR · WR5% model · 6% market+1699at build
  • 28Jordan WhittingtonLAR · WR4% model · 18% market+450at build
  • 29Trent McDuffieLAR · CBlimited data1% model · 2% market+6394at build
  • 30Jaylen WatsonLAR · CBlimited data1% model · 1% market+7419at build
  • 31Eric StokesLV · CBlimited data1% model · 1% market+9900at build
  • 32Kam CurlLAR · SAFlimited data1% model · 2% market+5888at build
  • 33Kamren KinchensLAR · SAFlimited data1% model · 1% market+7900at build
  • 34Quentin LakeLAR · SAFlimited data1% model · 1% market+7900at build
  • 35Jeremy ChinnLV · SAFlimited data1% model · 1% market+9424at build
  • 36Treydan StukesLV · SAFlimited data1% model · 1% market+9900at build
  • 37Quay WalkerLV · LBlimited data0% model · 2% market+5395at build
  • 38Nakobe DeanLV · LBlimited data0% model · 1% market+8375at build
  • 39Byron YoungLAR · LBlimited data0% model · 1% market+8909at build
  • 40Josaiah StewartLAR · LBlimited data0% model · 1% market+19900at build
  • 41Omar SpeightsLAR · LBlimited data0% model · 1% market+19900at build
  • 42Aaron DonaldLAR · DElimited data0% model · 0% market+24900at build
  • 43Shaun DolacLAR · LBlimited data0% model · 0% market+29312at build
  • 44Braden FiskeLAR · DElimited data0% model · 0% market+30203at build
First TD scorer market (28)

Ranked by market price. Our model covers anytime TD only, so the model column shows each player's anytime TD probability for context.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Seattle Seahawks

Sun 8:20 PM ET
Where the model sees valuemodel probability vs market-implied, by edge
model TD% market implied
Full model board · all 39 players (ranked by Model TD%)
#PlayerModel vs marketOdds
  • 1Kenneth Walker IIIDylan's pickmodel's #1KC · RB53% model · 56% market-125at build
  • 2Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSEA · WRoverpriced — value at +124 or better45% model · 45% market+124at build
  • 3Emanuel WilsonSEA · RBoverpriced — value at +227 or better31% model · 47% market+114at build
  • 4Rashee RiceKC · WRoverpriced — value at +264 or better28% model · 32% market+210stale
  • 5AJ BarnerSEA · TEoverpriced — value at +294 or better25% model · 27% market+270at build
  • 6Travis KelceKC · TE22% model · 31% market+220at build
  • 7George HolaniSEA · RB21% model · 20% market+410at build
  • 8Xavier WorthyKC · WR20% model · 31% market+220at build
  • 9Cooper KuppSEA · WR20% model · 20% market+410at build
  • 10Tory HortonSEA · WR18% model · 11% market+800at build
  • 11Patrick MahomesKC · QB17% model · 16% market+540at build
  • 12Rashid ShaheedSEA · WR16% model · 21% market+370at build
  • 13Andrew ArmstrongKC · WRlimited data13% model · 11% market+800at build
  • 14Jalen RoyalsKC · WR12% model · 18% market+450at build
  • 15Emmett JohnsonKC · RB11% model · 9% market+1000at build
  • 16Noah GrayKC · TE10% model · 16% market+540at build
  • 17Sam DarnoldSEA · QB8% model · 14% market+640at build
  • 18Velus Jones Jr.SEA · RB7% model · 11% market+840at build
  • 19Eric SaubertSEA · TE7% model · 8% market+1100at build
  • 20Nick KallerupSEA · TE6% model · 5% market+2001at build
  • 21Cyrus AllenKC · WRlimited data6% model · 10% market+900at build
  • 22Brady RussellSEA · RB6% model · 2% market+5395at build
  • 23Brashard SmithKC · RB4% model · 6% market+1550at build
  • 24Montorie Foster JrSEA · WRlimited data3% model · 3% market+3301at build
  • 25Nikko RemigioKC · WR3% model · 4% market+2497at build
  • 26Jake BriningstoolKC · TElimited data3% model · 5% market+2001at build
  • 27Ben VanSumerenKC · RB2% model · 2% market+5888at build
  • 28Devon WitherspoonSEA · CBlimited data1% model · 2% market+5395at build
  • 29Josh JobeSEA · CBlimited data1% model · 2% market+5888at build
  • 30Nohl WilliamsKC · CBlimited data1% model · 1% market+6893at build
  • 31Mansoor DelaneKC · CBlimited data1% model · 1% market+7900at build
  • 32Nick EmmanworiSEA · SAFlimited data1% model · 2% market+4708at build
  • 33Julian LoveSEA · SAFlimited data1% model · 2% market+5888at build
  • 34Chamarri ConnerKC · DBlimited data1% model · 1% market+7900at build
  • 35Ty OkadaSEA · SAFlimited data1% model · 1% market+9424at build
  • 36Ernest JonesSEA · LBlimited data0% model · 2% market+5888at build
  • 37Drue TranquillKC · LBlimited data0% model · 2% market+6394at build
  • 38Nick BoltonKC · LBlimited data0% model · 1% market+10889at build
  • 39Byron Murphy IISEA · DTlimited data0% model · 0% market+20733at build
First TD scorer market (26)

Ranked by market price. Our model covers anytime TD only, so the model column shows each player's anytime TD probability for context.

Model edge is our calibrated anytime-TD probability minus the market-implied probability from the current price. A positive edge means our model rates the player higher than the market is pricing. Players without a positive edge are not plays at today's prices — however likely they are to score.

Limited data marks players with thin history (rookies, new roles); their probability is shrunk toward a position baseline and should be read cautiously.

Model TD% is a probability, not a prediction of certainty. Odds are the market offers captured when this board was built.

Model nfl_atd-v1r2-20260930

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