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Anytime TD Board · 2026-11-05

This board is shown exactly as it was published before kickoff. Probabilities and odds are not updated after the slate.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Baltimore Ravens

Thu 8:15 PM ET
  • Zay FlowersBAL · WR34% model · 23% market+11.4pts+340at build
  • Tanner KoziolJAX · TElimited data11% model · 5% market+6.0pts+2098at build
  • C.J. WilliamsJAX · WRlimited data11% model · 6% market+4.3pts+1500at build
  • Rashod BatemanBAL · WR14% model · 10% market+4.2pts+880at build
  • Brian Thomas Jr.JAX · WR18% model · 16% market+2.0pts+520at build
model TD% market implied

Bhayshul Tuten is the model's most likely scorer (46.9%) — but not a pick at today's price: the market is asking more than our number. Good pick, wrong price. Value opens at +113 or better.

Full model board · all 29 players (ranked by Model TD%)
#PlayerModel vs marketOdds
  • 1Bhayshul Tutenmodel's #1JAX · RBoverpriced — value at +113 or better47% model · 49% market+106at build
  • 2Parker WashingtonJAX · WRoverpriced — value at +179 or better36% model · 39% market+158at build
  • 3Derrick HenryBAL · RBoverpriced — value at +186 or better35% model · 41% market+142at build
  • 4Zay FlowersBAL · WR34% model · 23% market+340at build
  • 5Chris Rodriguez Jr.JAX · RBoverpriced — value at +280 or better26% model · 49% market+106at build
  • 6Brenton StrangeJAX · TE24% model · 31% market+220at build
  • 7Jakobi MeyersJAX · WR24% model · 27% market+265at build
  • 8Brian Thomas Jr.JAX · WR18% model · 16% market+520at build
  • 9Josh CameronJAX · WR16% model · 16% market+520at build
  • 10Nate BoerkircherJAX · TE15% model · 17% market+490at build
  • 11Rashod BatemanBAL · WR14% model · 10% market+880at build
  • 12Justice HillBAL · RB13% model · 19% market+440at build
  • 13Mark AndrewsBAL · TE12% model · 16% market+520at build
  • 14Ja'Kobi LaneBAL · WR11% model · 12% market+740at build
  • 15C.J. WilliamsJAX · WRlimited data11% model · 6% market+1500at build
  • 16Tanner KoziolJAX · TElimited data11% model · 5% market+2098at build
  • 17Trevor LawrenceJAX · QB9% model · 22% market+350at build
  • 18Ameer AbdullahJAX · RB9% model · 17% market+490at build
  • 19Devontez WalkerBAL · WR8% model · 5% market+2098at build
  • 20LeQuint Allen Jr.JAX · RB8% model · 10% market+880at build
  • 21Tyler HuntleyBAL · QB7% model · 16% market+520at build
  • 22Matthew HibnerBAL · TE7% model · 5% market+1748at build
  • 23Quintin MorrisJAX · TE7% model · 5% market+1748at build
  • 24Josh CuevasBAL · TE6% model · 5% market+2098at build
  • 25Joe FagnanoBAL · QBlimited data6% model · 8% market+1200at build
  • 26Nick VannettBAL · TE6% model · 2% market+4102at build
  • 27LaJohntay WesterBAL · WR3% model · 3% market+2799at build
  • 28Rasheen AliBAL · RB3% model · 3% market+3702at build
  • 29Travis HunterJAX · CBlimited data1% model · 13% market+680at build
First TD scorer market (29)

Ranked by market price. Our model covers anytime TD only, so the model column shows each player's anytime TD probability for context.

Model edge is our calibrated anytime-TD probability minus the market-implied probability from the current price. A positive edge means our model rates the player higher than the market is pricing. Players without a positive edge are not plays at today's prices — however likely they are to score.

Limited data marks players with thin history (rookies, new roles); their probability is shrunk toward a position baseline and should be read cautiously.

Model TD% is a probability, not a prediction of certainty. Odds are the market offers captured when this board was built.

Model nfl_atd-v1r2-20260930