The Call
Win probability lands with picks the day before kickoff; live market pricing follows once books post prices.
Picks drop the day before kickoff
The model runs after final injury reports. Until then the story below is the substance, and it updates daily.
The Wire
HOU @ JAX · odds in decimalLoading events...
Houston Texans vs Jacksonville Jaguars Game Preview
Houston arrives at Wembley with a pass rush ranked in the top eight percent of the league (92nd pctl), while Jacksonville's offense has shown it can both move the ball and finish drives -- third-down conversion at 84th pctl, points per drive at 78th pctl. The Texans generate explosive chunk plays through the air (89th pctl) but have almost no big-play threat on the ground (6th pctl), creating a one-dimensional attack that opposing defenses can scheme against.
Jacksonville's defense forces turnovers at an elite rate (89th pctl), giving it a credible path to flipping field position against a Houston unit that generates turnovers at just a 27th pctl clip. The game plays at a deliberate pace -- Jacksonville ranks 17th pctl in plays per minute -- compressing possessions and putting a premium on every series.
Check back the day before the game for the full preview and picks.
Houston Texans vs Jacksonville Jaguars Key Insights
- Whether Houston's elite pass rush (92nd pctl) can disrupt Jacksonville's strong third-down offense (84th pctl)
- Jacksonville's turnover generation (89th pctl) against a Houston offense with below-average ball security tendencies (27th pctl)
- How Houston's limited run game (6th pctl explosive run rate) impacts their ability to sustain drives against a defense that converts takeaways into points
Key Players
Passing YardsHOU
C.J. Stroud
1,402YDS
119/185, 6 TDQB
Rushing YardsHOU
Woody Marks
149YDS
43 CAR, 2 TDRB
Receiving YardsHOU
Nico Collins
249YDS
19 REC, 3 TDWR
SacksHOU
Will Anderson Jr.
7.5SACKS
DE
TacklesHOU
Azeez Al-Shaair
42TOT
LB
Passing YardsJAX
Trevor Lawrence
1,174YDS
96/143, 10 TD, 3 INTQB
Rushing YardsJAX
Bhayshul Tuten
349YDS
82 CAR, 2 TDRB
Receiving YardsJAX
Parker Washington
352YDS
22 REC, 4 TDWR
SacksJAX
Travon Walker
2SACKS
DE
TacklesJAX
Foyesade Oluokun
34TOT
LB
Recent Form
Houston Texans
L36-31Buffalo Bills
L20-6Cincinnati Bengals
L19-17Indianapolis Colts
L34-30Dallas Cowboys
W26-3Tennessee Titans
Jacksonville Jaguars
W34-10Cleveland Browns
L20-13Denver Broncos
W35-6New England Patriots
W22-17Cincinnati Bengals
W19-17Philadelphia Eagles
Early look at Houston Texans vs Jacksonville Jaguars. Full preview and picks land the day before the game.
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