The injury list does not stop at Dunker. Jaylen Warren (shoulder) and Michael Pittman Jr. (foot) are both questionable for Sunday. Porter Jr. (undisclosed) and Jamel Dean (ankle) are also questionable. Running back Rico Dowdle is out with a toe injury. Rookie wide receiver Germie Bernard has absorbed extra snaps this week in Pittman's absence. Rodgers spoke directly about the young receiver: "Obviously, there's stuff to clean up, but I was really pleased with Germie." That sentence tells you exactly where Pittsburgh is right now. They are relying on a first-year player to pick up the slack, and the quarterback handing him the ball is operating far below his 2025 standard, when he posted a 94.8 passer rating and 6.7 yards per attempt in 16 games last season.

Across the field, the Cincinnati Bengals arrive 2-0 and efficient. Joe Burrow has thrown for 461 yards, 3 touchdowns, and 1 interception on 68.2% completions, posting a 96.8 passer rating at 7.0 yards per attempt. Those numbers match the 7.0 Y/A and 100.7 passer rating he carried in 8 games last season. He has posted 200 or more passing yards in 5 straight games. Tee Higgins averaged 77.0 receiving yards per game in the first two weeks and has cleared 50 receiving yards in 5 consecutive games. Chase Brown has carried for 136 rushing yards through two weeks, averaging 68.0 yards per game. Cincinnati's only notable absences are wide receiver Andrei Iosivas, out with a thumb injury, and defensive tackle B.J. Hill, listed doubtful with an Achilles issue.

Our model projects a final score of 23.5 to 19.2 in Cincinnati's favor, a 4.3-point margin. The market prices the spread at Bengals -3.0 and assigns a 61.5% win probability to Cincinnati. Head coach Mike McCarthy is in his first season running the Steelers. Zac Taylor is in his eighth year with the Bengals. Pittsburgh's defense has been one of the better units in the AFC North early in 2026, holding opponents to 16.5 points per game, and that efficiency is the one credible argument for keeping this game close. The problem is that a defense cannot compensate for an offense converting 20.00% of third-down attempts, which is exactly what the Steelers are doing through two weeks.

• Pittsburgh has converted 4 of 20 third downs in 2026, a 20.00% rate. That is not variance. That is a structural breakdown in the passing game that compounds every possession Pittsburgh takes. Punts replace scoring drives, field position shifts, and Cincinnati's offense gets shorter fields.
• Both Pittsburgh cornerbacks, Joey Porter Jr. and Jamel Dean, are listed as questionable with separate injuries. Tee Higgins has averaged 86 receiving yards per game across 10 career games against the Steelers, totaling 856 yards. If the first-string corners are limited or absent, her matchup advantages only grow.
• Burrow averages 265 passing yards per game in 7 career starts against Pittsburgh, with 15 touchdowns. He runs 28% of his routes to the short-left zone per charting, and Chase targets short-left at 36%. Both receivers attack the areas where a depleted secondary is most exposed.
• Rodgers' last meeting with Cincinnati, in November 2025, produced 116 passing yards on 9 of 15 completions. That game was a 34-12 Pittsburgh win, which shows the Steelers can win divisional games even when Rodgers struggles. But that defense gave up just 12 points. This version of Pittsburgh's offense is averaging 11.5 points per game in 2026 and needs far more than that to win.
• The contrarian play is Steelers +3. Rodgers carries a 12-touchdown, 6-interception career line in 6 games against Cincinnati, and Pittsburgh's defense allowing 16.5 points per game is real. If the Steelers defense forces turnovers and keeps Cincinnati's scoring in check, the backdoor exists. The data says to take the Bengals. But this is a divisional game with a short number, and those games go sideways on one bounce.
• Chase Brown averages 59 rush yards per game in 5 career games against Pittsburgh, with a best of 108. He has cleared 40 rushing yards in 5 consecutive games. The last time these teams met, in November 2025, he carried 18 times for 99 yards. If Cincinnati holds a lead in the fourth quarter, the ball is going to him on a repeat basis.

The honest caveat is Pittsburgh's defense. The Steelers have held opponents to 16.5 points per game in 2026 and Patrick Queen's interception last week shows this unit has playmakers. Rodgers carries a 12-touchdown, 6-interception career line in 6 games against Cincinnati, and divisional games at home with short spreads can turn on a single possession. The Steelers are not a team without a path. They simply need their offense to avoid the kind of 20% third-down performance that makes a defense irrelevant. That offensive line, now missing Dunker, does not make that task easier.

The best angle in this matchup is pairing Bengals -3.0 with Rodgers under 224.5 passing yards. Those two bets are making the same argument from different directions. Brown over 59.5 rushing yards if you want the SGP variation, because Brown finishing games is what Cincinnati running a Bengals lead looks like on the ground. Play with appropriate sizing. This is a divisional game, 3-point spreads in the AFC North get decided on the final drive, and both sides have injury questions that do not fully resolve until Sunday. For the full slate, see our NFL picks today and parlay picks.