The Call
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Picks drop the day before kickoff
The model runs after final injury reports. Until then the story below is the substance, and it updates daily.
The Wire
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Atlanta Falcons vs New Orleans Saints Game Preview
New Orleans plays at the 100th-percentile pace and converts third downs at the 94th percentile, producing a high volume of sustained drives that consistently reach the red zone (94th pctl scoring). Tempo generates possessions, third-down efficiency extends drives, and red zone execution finishes them. Their early-down success is below average (34th pctl), yet the downstream efficiency more than compensates.
Atlanta arrives with elite red zone finishing (89th pctl) and a strong run game (75th pctl explosive run rate), but the Falcons convert third downs at just the 22nd percentile and score at the 19th percentile in points per drive. The 72-point gap in third-down conversion (New Orleans 94th, Atlanta 22nd) is the most consequential trait disparity in this game and explains the difference in scoring output despite Atlanta's red zone efficiency.
Check back the day before the game for the full preview and picks.
Atlanta Falcons vs New Orleans Saints Key Insights
- New Orleans's third-down conversion rate (94th pctl) against Atlanta's (22nd pctl): a 72-point gap that is the single largest trait disparity in this game and the primary driver of the Saints' scoring advantage
- Atlanta's red zone efficiency (89th pctl): if the Falcons reach scoring position they finish, but their limited third-down conversion (22nd pctl) restricts how often they get there
- Pace: New Orleans plays at the 100th-percentile tempo while Atlanta ranks 67th, giving the Saints a structural advantage in total possessions and drive volume
Key Players
Passing YardsATL
Michael Penix Jr.
256YDS
18/25, 1 TD, 1 INTQB
Rushing YardsATL
Bijan Robinson
349YDS
66 CAR, 2 TDRB
Receiving YardsATL
Drake London
274YDS
15 RECWR
SacksATL
Za'Darius Smith
2.5SACKS
DE
TacklesATL
Jessie Bates III
17TOT
S
Passing YardsNO
Tyler Shough
917YDS
91/132, 8 TD, 3 INTQB
Rushing YardsNO
Travis Etienne Jr.
128YDS
30 CARRB
Receiving YardsNO
Chris Olave
375YDS
27 REC, 1 TDWR
SacksNO
Chase Young
3.5SACKS
DE
TacklesNO
Kaden Elliss
24TOT
LB
Recent Form
Atlanta Falcons
W34-6Indianapolis Colts
W17-12Miami Dolphins
L20-13Pittsburgh Steelers
L34-3Carolina Panthers
W35-14Green Bay Packers
New Orleans Saints
L34-0Los Angeles Rams
W27-24Dallas Cowboys
W24-17Baltimore Ravens
L35-27Las Vegas Raiders
Early look at Atlanta Falcons vs New Orleans Saints. Full preview and picks land the day before the game.
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