The Call
Win probability lands with picks the day before kickoff; live market pricing follows once books post prices.
Picks drop the day before kickoff
The model runs after final injury reports. Until then the story below is the substance, and it updates daily.
The Wire
LV @ NE · odds in decimalLoading events...
Las Vegas Raiders vs New England Patriots Game Preview
Las Vegas arrives at Gillette Stadium with a strong defensive profile: an 88th percentile pass rush, 97th percentile turnover generation, and excellent pass protection at the 94th percentile. New England has been one of the lower-scoring offenses in the league, ranking 6th in points per drive, 14th in redzone touchdown rate, and 33rd in third down conversion. The Raiders have been efficient enough on offense to rank 72nd in points per drive and 67th in third down conversion.
New England's clearest path to staying in the game runs through their own turnover generation (67th pctl), though that sits 30 points below Las Vegas's 97th. The Patriots have generated explosive passing plays at the 62nd percentile, but converting those gains into points has been the persistent challenge across the first four weeks.
Check back the day before the game for the full preview and picks.
Las Vegas Raiders vs New England Patriots Key Insights
- Las Vegas's turnover generation (97th pctl) against a Patriots offense that has converted drives at only the 6th percentile in points per drive
- Whether New England can sustain third down drives, they convert at the 33rd percentile, against a Raiders defense that applies pressure at the 88th
- Las Vegas's pass protection (94th pctl sack rate allowed) against a Patriots pass rush at the 44th percentile, a 50-point structural edge for the Raiders' offense
Key Players
Passing YardsLV
Kirk Cousins
1,026YDS
93/144, 11 TD, 4 INTQB
Rushing YardsLV
Ashton Jeanty
264YDS
78 CARRB
Receiving YardsLV
Tre Tucker
233YDS
15 REC, 1 TDWR
SacksLV
Malcolm Koonce
2.5SACKS
DE
TacklesLV
Nakobe Dean
32TOT
LB
Passing YardsNE
Drake Maye
854YDS
73/117, 4 TD, 7 INTQB
Rushing YardsNE
Rhamondre Stevenson
163YDS
44 CAR, 1 TDRB
Receiving YardsNE
Mack Hollins
209YDS
15 RECWR
SacksNE
Elijah Ponder
2.5SACKS
LB
TacklesNE
Robert Spillane
29TOT
LB
Recent Form
Las Vegas Raiders
L18-12San Francisco 49ers
W27-13Miami Dolphins
W26-14Los Angeles Chargers
W35-27New Orleans Saints
L30-27Kansas City Chiefs
New England Patriots
L37-13Cleveland Browns
L13-10Seattle Seahawks
W20-3Pittsburgh Steelers
L35-6Jacksonville Jaguars
W29-26Buffalo Bills
Early look at Las Vegas Raiders vs New England Patriots. Full preview and picks land the day before the game.
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