The Call
Win probability lands with picks the day before kickoff; live market pricing follows once books post prices.
Picks drop the day before kickoff
The model runs after final injury reports. Until then the story below is the substance, and it updates daily.
The Wire
NYJ @ NE · odds in decimalLoading events...
New York Jets vs New England Patriots Game Preview
The Jets own one of the best pass rushes in the league (97th pctl) and generate early-down success at an 84th pctl rate, but their own protection ranks near the bottom (9th pctl sack rate allowed). The offense collapses in the red zone -- a 3rd pctl touchdown rate there -- meaning the pass rush must carry significant weight for this team to win.
New England brings a strong explosive passing attack (80th pctl) and steady scoring (53rd pctl points per drive), with protection that sits in the mid-range (44th pctl). The Patriots convert third downs at 42nd pctl -- not elite, but far ahead of a Jets red zone attack that repeatedly fails to finish. The game hinges on whether field position and the New York pass rush can compensate for a scoring ceiling that the numbers suggest is limited.
Check back the day before the game for the full preview and picks.
New York Jets vs New England Patriots Key Insights
- New York's elite pass rush (97th pctl) against New England's mid-tier protection (44th pctl sack rate allowed)
- New England's explosive passing (80th pctl) against a Jets secondary that must compensate for a leaky offensive line (9th pctl protection)
- The Jets' red zone TD rate (3rd pctl) -- whether early-down efficiency translates into actual scoring or drives die inside the 20
Key Players
Passing YardsNYJ
Geno Smith
1,084YDS
102/147, 6 TDQB
Rushing YardsNYJ
Braelon Allen
236YDS
57 CAR, 2 TDRB
Receiving YardsNYJ
Garrett Wilson
374YDS
31 REC, 3 TDWR
SacksNYJ
David Bailey
5SACKS
LB
TacklesNYJ
Dane Belton
39TOT
S
Passing YardsNE
Drake Maye
1,228YDS
99/151, 8 TD, 7 INTQB
Rushing YardsNE
Rhamondre Stevenson
227YDS
57 CAR, 2 TDRB
Receiving YardsNE
Romeo Doubs
219YDS
13 REC, 2 TDWR
SacksNE
Elijah Ponder
4.5SACKS
LB
TacklesNE
Robert Spillane
34TOT
LB
Recent Form
New York Jets
W23-10Tennessee Titans
L31-24Detroit Lions
L23-12Chicago Bears
W17-12Cleveland Browns
New England Patriots
L13-10Seattle Seahawks
W20-3Pittsburgh Steelers
L35-6Jacksonville Jaguars
W29-26Buffalo Bills
W45-17Las Vegas Raiders
Early look at New York Jets vs New England Patriots. Full preview and picks land the day before the game.
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