Wolves have failed to score in 19 league matches this season, a league record. Fulham scored just once in their last five games. Over those same five matches, both teams combined for 0.4 goals per game. Fulham's 3-0 win at Molineux in November looks less convincing when you examine the xG: they scored 3 on just 1.91 expected goals. That's a significant overperformance. When a team beats its xG by that margin, the next meeting usually regresses toward actual chance quality, not the bloated scoreline.

Wolves' final-home-game pattern adds another layer. In the last five seasons, they have won zero times in their final home match: three draws, two losses. That's not randomness. It's a structural tendency. Our model projects 0.9 goals for Wolves and 1.4 for Fulham, totaling 2.3, which sits below the 2.5 market line. Key absences compound the picture: Wolves will likely start Daniel Bentley in goal after José Sá's foot injury, and Fulham are without key wing defenders in Iwobi and Sessegnon.

The table suggests a blowout. The underlying metrics suggest a much tighter affair.

• Both teams scored just 0.2 goals per game over their last five matches, indicating an attacking crisis that goes beyond variance.
• Fulham overperformed expected goals by over a goal in their November 3-0 win. Regression is the mathematical baseline for this rematch.
• Wolves have not won a final home game in five seasons, a pattern that favors either a draw or an away win rather than a home victory.
• Wolves' elevated pass pressure (PPDA 13.6 in their last five) creates a congested, compact midfield that limits open-play transitions and set-piece opportunities.
• Referee Thomas Kirk averages 4.0 cards per match, above the league average. A physical, frustrated end-of-season contest will generate card accumulation quickly.
• Wolves' attacking dysfunction (19 blanks, 0.95 xG per game overall) is fundamental, not circumstantial, making a clean sheet or low-goal outcome highly plausible.

The edge is on the unders. Both teams' attacking output is anemic, Fulham's prior 3-0 overperformed their actual expected goals, and the motivational gap is stark. A nil-nil draw remains a real outcome, even at 25% implied probability. Tighter scorelines (0-0, 1-0, 1-1) are the base case here. I'll take under 2.5 at +116 as the core play.

For more predictions, check our Premier League picks today and BTTS picks.