Liverpool at Crystal Palace

Liverpool arrive with their own wounds. Back-to-back defeats to Arsenal (1-0) and Fenerbahce (3-2 in the Champions League) have dropped them to sixth, one point off the top four. Manager Andoni Iraola has been unusually candid about the mood: "One week ago we were on a run, everything was in a good place and we were in a better mood. Now, after two defeats it changes and it has to be like this in clubs like ours." That honesty matters. Liverpool know the pressure is on. But their away record this season, two wins from two trips, tells you the road has suited them fine.

Palace manager Pierre Sage is in an unenviable position. Without Mateta and Sarr, Jorgen Strand Larsen becomes the most credible attacking option by default, and he is only fit enough for approximately 60 to 75 minutes after returning from an ankle injury. Crystal Palace average just 3.4 shots on target per game, the fewest among non-relegated sides in the division. They have one clean sheet all season and have conceded ten goals in their last five matches. This is a team that cannot attack and is struggling to defend.

Liverpool have their own fitness concern. Ryan Gravenberch faces a late fitness test on a heel problem. If he misses out, Trey Nyoni or Dominik Szoboszlai partners Alexis Mac Allister in midfield, which thins the engine room somewhat. It is a variable worth watching. But even without Gravenberch, Florian Wirtz, Alexander Isak, and Bradley Barcola form a front line that should dismantle this Palace backline. I have watched enough of this Liverpool attacking unit to know that a depleted Palace defence, without its best striker and operating on the edge of the drop zone, is exactly the kind of opposition they click against.

• Crystal Palace have failed to score in four of their last five Premier League matches, managing just three goals total in that run (0.6 per game). With Mateta suspended and Sarr injured, Jorgen Strand Larsen is their only recognised striker, limited to around 60 to 75 minutes of action.
• Liverpool's away record this season stands at 2W-0D-0L. They have kept four clean sheets across the campaign, and the Van Dijk and Araujo defensive pairing has been one of the stingiest in the league against sides with limited attacking quality.
• Our Score Predictor has this at 1.7 Liverpool to 0.7 Crystal Palace, putting the projected total at 2.4 goals. That lands just under the market's 2.5 line. The model and the form both point toward a controlled, low-scoring Liverpool win rather than a free-scoring match.
• Referee Tony Harrington has awarded five penalties in 16 matches this season, a rate of 0.31 per game against a league average of 0.23. With Liverpool attacking a desperate Palace backline under sustained pressure, foul risk inside the box is elevated throughout this match.
• Liverpool corner volume has been the highest in the squad this season, 45 corners in nine games (5.0 per game), while Palace have conceded corner after corner from their low-block shape. The combined average of 8.2 per game, with Liverpool as the dominant attacking force, skews the total significantly upward.
• The key tactical battle is Florian Wirtz operating in the half-spaces between Palace's compact midfield and backline against Daichi Kamada (1.9 tackles per 90). How much freedom Wirtz earns in those zones will determine how quickly Liverpool take control and kill the match as a contest.

The genuine caution here is psychological. Iraola acknowledged the mood shift himself after losing to Arsenal and Fenerbahce in quick succession. Liverpool are not at their best right now. If Gravenberch fails his fitness test and Palace's midfield press creates an edgy opening 30 minutes at Selhurst Park, there is a small window for the home crowd to get involved. Palace manager Pierre Sage made a point of saying "every game is different," and you can read that as professional respect or as a team looking for any angle of hope. The draw at +360 is not impossible in extreme circumstances, but I do not believe this Palace attack can produce the quality needed to earn a point against Liverpool's defensive pairing. The form is too one-sided, and the absences are too damaging.

For more predictions, check our Premier League picks today and BTTS picks.