Liverpool's home record in 2026/27 is zero wins, one draw, one loss across three Anfield appearances. They are averaging 0.7 goals scored per home game and conceding 1.7. Manager Andoni Iraola confirmed the depth of the problem this week. Szoboszlai, he said simply: "Dom is going to be out this weekend." Jeremie Frimpong is out for approximately five weeks with a muscle injury sustained at Brentford. Victor Munoz, carrying a knee knock, is rated at 25% availability, with Iraola saying, "I think it's going to be difficult, but I really don't know." Liverpool's right flank has been stripped of its primary width provider, its penalty taker, and its most creative midfielder. That is not a minor rotation issue.

Brighton arrive on a four-game winning run with a 15-0 aggregate across those victories. They are the league's top scorers with 23 goals in seven games, averaging 3.3 goals per away fixture this season. Their xGD of plus 6.66 this season compares to Liverpool's plus 1.17. Pascal Groß has contributed 3 goals and 4 assists in 613 minutes with an xA of 0.44 per 90, among the highest in the division. Kostoulas has 3 goals and 2 assists in 490 minutes with 18 shots, 3.3 per 90. Brighton are also missing Mitoma and Minteh, but their first-choice attacking structure does not depend on either player as a primary output mechanism. Florian Wirtz, who leads the entire Premier League with 20 key passes in seven appearances, is expected to replace Szoboszlai in a deeper creative role. Alexander Isak confirmed his fitness ahead of this game, saying, "I feel good," and was candid about the quality of the opposition: "Brighton are one of the tougher opponents that you have in the league."

The OddsIndex Score Predictor has this at Liverpool 1.4, Brighton 1.2. Narrow Liverpool edge. Under normal home circumstances I would take that number and lean accordingly. But Liverpool's actual home xGA is 1.80 per game, their actual home xG is 1.28, and they have zero home wins this season. Brighton's finishing quality is real, not lucky. They have outperformed their xG by plus 6.2 goals, and that is a season-long pattern. I am pushing the prediction toward Brighton: 1-2 away win. The model is a tool I use. The situational data is what I act on.

• Liverpool's home and away splits are almost perfectly inverted this season (2026/27): 0W-1D-1L at Anfield, averaging 0.7 goals scored and 1.7 conceded per game, versus 3W-0D-0L away from home averaging 1.8 scored and 0.8 conceded. The home venue is actively hurting Liverpool's results right now.
• Brighton's xGD of plus 6.66 this season is not close to Liverpool's plus 1.17. Brighton generate 2.40 xG per game and have scored 23 actual goals from a base of 16.8 xG, a plus 6.2 overperformance that reflects consistent finishing quality across seven matches, not a hot run of luck.
• Three key Liverpool absences reshape the tactical picture significantly: Szoboszlai (confirmed out, hamstring), Frimpong (confirmed out, approximately five weeks), and Munoz (25% available, knee). Wirtz steps into a larger role and inherits free-kick duties, but Liverpool's right-flank width and their primary penalty taker are both missing against a Brighton side that will press their rebuilt midfield from the opening whistle.
• Brighton's PPDA of 6.7 is one of the most aggressive pressing numbers in the division, and their 59.8% average possession shows they dominate the ball regardless of venue. Liverpool will face a high-press from a side averaging 2.07 xG per away game, and their reorganized midfield will be tested early.
• Liverpool average 4.9 corners per game (34 total in 7) and Brighton average 5.7 per game (40 in 7), a combined baseline of 10.6. Both sides create wide-channel play under high pressing systems, and an open competitive game between two attacking squads historically drives corner volume above the season average for both teams.
• Referee Samuel Barrott has awarded 8 penalties in 28 matches across 2025-26 and 2026-27, a rate of 0.29 per match against a league average of 0.24. The penalty risk is elevated under Barrott. In a match where Brighton's Groß holds both corner-taking and penalty-taking duties, that structural detail is worth tracking.

The best standalone play is Brighton to win outright at +235. The market has not properly priced Liverpool's actual home record, and that is the edge. Over 10.5 corners at +114 is the most efficient number on the board given both teams' seasonal averages. The Groß assist at +340 is the highest-value player prop on the card if you are comfortable with individual player props; his 57% in-season assist rate makes that price look significantly underpriced even after accounting for variance. The model says Brighton. The form says Brighton. The injury sheet says Brighton. The edge is there. Please bet responsibly and within your means.

For more predictions, check our Premier League picks today and BTTS picks.