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Anytime TD Board · 2026-10-18

This board is shown exactly as it was published before kickoff. Probabilities and odds are not updated after the slate.

Houston Texans @ Jacksonville Jaguars

Sun 9:30 AM ET
Where the model sees valuemodel probability vs market-implied, by edge
model TD% market implied
Full model board · all 53 players (ranked by Model TD%)
#PlayerModel vs marketOdds
First TD scorer market (29)

Ranked by market price. Our model covers anytime TD only, so the model column shows each player's anytime TD probability for context.

Chicago Bears @ Atlanta Falcons

Sun 1:00 PM ET
Where the model sees valuemodel probability vs market-implied, by edge
model TD% market implied

Bijan Robinson is the model's most likely scorer (60.1%) — but not a pick at today's price: the market is asking more than our number. Good pick, wrong price. Value opens at -151 or better.

Full model board · all 45 players (ranked by Model TD%)
#PlayerModel vs marketOdds
  • 1Bijan Robinsonmodel's #1ATL · RBoverpriced — value at -151 or better60% model · 75% market-294at build
  • 2D'Andre SwiftCHI · RBoverpriced — value at +111 or better47% model · 66% market-196at build
  • 3Drake LondonATL · WRoverpriced — value at +158 or better39% model · 50% market+100at build
  • 4Kyle MonangaiCHI · RBoverpriced — value at +167 or better37% model · 47% market+114stale
  • 5Colston LovelandCHI · TEoverpriced — value at +199 or better33% model · 36% market+180at build
  • 6Rome OdunzeCHI · WR33% model · 38% market+164at build
  • 7Luther Burden IIICHI · WR30% model · 36% market+180at build
  • 8Kyle PittsATL · TE23% model · 24% market+310at build
  • 9Brian RobinsonATL · RB21% model · 32% market+210at build
  • 10Kalif RaymondCHI · WR21% model · 24% market+320at build
  • 11Jahan DotsonATL · WR20% model · 22% market+360at build
  • 12Roschon JohnsonCHI · RB14% model · 22% market+350at build
  • 13Cole KmetCHI · TE13% model · 18% market+450at build
  • 14Charlie WoernerATL · TE13% model · 8% market+1100at build
  • 15Jahdae WalkerCHI · WR12% model · 7% market+1301at build
  • 16Olamide ZaccheausATL · WR11% model · 9% market+1000at build
  • 17Caleb WilliamsCHI · QB10% model · 22% market+350at build
  • 18Zavier ScottCHI · RB10% model · 5% market+2001at build
  • 19Michael Penix Jr.ATL · QB9% model · 10% market+950at build
  • 20Austin HooperATL · TE9% model · 11% market+840at build
  • 21Zachariah BranchATL · WR8% model · 9% market+1000at build
  • 22Zavion ThomasCHI · WR8% model · 7% market+1301at build
  • 23Sam RoushCHI · TE7% model · 7% market+1301at build
  • 24Nick MuseATL · TE6% model · 5% market+1801at build
  • 25Case KeenumCHI · QB6% model · 11% market+840stale
  • 26Tyson BagentCHI · QB6% model · 19% market+420stale
  • 27Chris BlairATL · WR5% model · 5% market+1801at build
  • 28Tua TagovailoaATL · QB4% model · 8% market+1200stale
  • 29Xavier WoodsCHI · FSlimited data1% model · 1% market+8375at build
  • 30Jessie BatesATL · FSlimited data1% model · 1% market+9900at build
  • 31Mike HughesATL · CBlimited data1% model · 2% market+5888at build
  • 32Avieon TerrellATL · CBlimited data1% model · 1% market+9900at build
  • 33Cam LewisCHI · CBlimited data1% model · 1% market+9900at build
  • 34Jaylon JohnsonCHI · CBlimited data1% model · 1% market+9900at build
  • 35Dillon ThienemanCHI · SAFlimited data1% model · 2% market+5888at build
  • 36Xavier WattsATL · SAFlimited data1% model · 1% market+6893at build
  • 37Devin BushCHI · LBlimited data0% model · 1% market+9424at build
  • 38D'Marco JacksonCHI · LBlimited data0% model · 1% market+10889at build
  • 39Divine DeabloATL · LBlimited data0% model · 1% market+14825at build
  • 40Austin BookerCHI · DElimited data0% model · 0% market+30203at build
  • 41Dayo OdeyingboCHI · DElimited data0% model · 0% market+30203stale
  • 42Kentavius StreetCHI · DElimited data0% model · 0% market+30203at build
  • 43Samson EbukamATL · DElimited data0% model · 0% market+30203at build
  • 44Cameron ThomasATL · DElimited data0% model · 0% market+49900at build
  • 45Grady JarrettCHI · DTlimited data0% model · 0% market+49900at build
First TD scorer market (28)

Ranked by market price. Our model covers anytime TD only, so the model column shows each player's anytime TD probability for context.

Baltimore Ravens @ Cleveland Browns

Sun 1:00 PM ET
Dylan's best play · Anytime TD
Audric EstiméCLE · RB
27.7%our model
vs
10.9%market implied
+16.8ptsmodel edge
+820price at build

Our calibrated model gives Audric Estimé a 27.7% shot at the end zone, while the market is only pricing 10.9%. That gap is the play.

Where the model sees valuemodel probability vs market-implied, by edge
  • Audric EstiméDylan's best playCLE · RB28% model · 11% market+16.8pts+820at build
  • Devontez WalkerBAL · WR14% model · 7% market+7.3pts+1399at build
  • Zay FlowersDylan's pickBAL · WR37% model · 30% market+6.6pts+230at build
  • Jerry JeudyCLE · WR17% model · 11% market+5.2pts+780at build
  • Isaiah BondCLE · WR12% model · 7% market+4.8pts+1399at build
  • Rashod BatemanBAL · WR19% model · 16% market+3.5pts+540at build
  • Justice HillBAL · RB14% model · 13% market+2.0pts+700at build
model TD% market implied

Derrick Henry is the model's most likely scorer (52.2%) — but not a pick at today's price: the market is asking more than our number. Good pick, wrong price. Value opens at -109 or better.

Full model board · all 51 players (ranked by Model TD%)
#PlayerModel vs marketOdds
  • 1Derrick Henrymodel's #1BAL · RBoverpriced — value at -109 or better52% model · 58% market-137at build
  • 2Zay FlowersDylan's pickBAL · WR37% model · 30% market+230at build
  • 3Quinshon JudkinsCLE · RBoverpriced — value at +203 or better33% model · 36% market+178at build
  • 4Denzel BostonCLE · WRoverpriced — value at +213 or better32% model · 32% market+210at build
  • 5Harold Fannin Jr.CLE · TEoverpriced — value at +244 or better29% model · 29% market+240at build
  • 6Audric EstiméDylan's best playCLE · RB28% model · 11% market+820at build
  • 7Mark AndrewsBAL · TE21% model · 26% market+290at build
  • 8Rashod BatemanBAL · WR19% model · 16% market+540at build
  • 9Jerry JeudyCLE · WR17% model · 11% market+780at build
  • 10Justice HillBAL · RB14% model · 13% market+700at build
  • 11Devontez WalkerBAL · WR14% model · 7% market+1399at build
  • 12Tyler HuntleyBAL · QB13% model · 23% market+340at build
  • 13Raheim SandersCLE · RB13% model · 26% market+290stale
  • 14Deshaun WatsonCLE · QB12% model · 17% market+500at build
  • 15Isaiah BondCLE · WR12% model · 7% market+1399at build
  • 16Matthew HibnerBAL · TElimited data10% model · 14% market+600stale
  • 17Jaleel McLaughlinCLE · RB9% model · 36% market+178at build
  • 18Lamar JacksonBAL · QB9% model · 27% market+265stale
  • 19Nick VannettBAL · TE9% model · 5% market+2001at build
  • 20Ja'Kobi LaneBAL · WRlimited data8% model · 11% market+800at build
  • 21Josh CuevasBAL · TElimited data7% model · 8% market+1100at build
  • 22Dylan SampsonCLE · RB6% model · 33% market+200at build
  • 23Malachi CorleyCLE · WR5% model · 4% market+2497at build
  • 24Michael BurtonCLE · FBlimited data5% model · 2% market+4708at build
  • 25Rasheen AliBAL · RB5% model · 2% market+4305at build
  • 26Blake WhiteheartCLE · TE4% model · 7% market+1250at build
  • 27LaJohntay WesterBAL · WR4% model · 5% market+1900at build
  • 28Tylan WallaceCLE · WR3% model · 4% market+2497at build
  • 29Carsen RyanCLE · TElimited data2% model · 2% market+4900at build
  • 30Marlon HumphreyBAL · CBlimited data1% model · 2% market+6394at build
  • 31Tyson CampbellCLE · CBlimited data1% model · 2% market+6394at build
  • 32Denzel WardCLE · CBlimited data1% model · 1% market+7419at build
  • 33Nate WigginsBAL · CBlimited data1% model · 1% market+8375at build
  • 34Myles HardenCLE · CBlimited data1% model · 1% market+9900at build
  • 35Kyle HamiltonBAL · SAFlimited data1% model · 2% market+6394at build
  • 36Malaki StarksBAL · SAFlimited data1% model · 2% market+6394at build
  • 37Ronnie Hickman Jr.CLE · SAFlimited data1% model · 1% market+6893at build
  • 38Grant DelpitCLE · SAFlimited data1% model · 1% market+8375at build
  • 39Roquan SmithBAL · ILBlimited data1% model · 2% market+5888at build
  • 40Quincy WilliamsCLE · LBlimited data0% model · 1% market+8909at build
  • 41Trenton SimpsonBAL · LBlimited data0% model · 1% market+9900at build
  • 42Tavius RobinsonBAL · LBlimited data0% model · 1% market+11948at build
  • 43Isaiah McGuireCLE · DElimited data0% model · 0% market+29312at build
  • 44Adin HuntingtonCLE · DElimited data0% model · 0% market+30203at build
  • 45Jared VerseCLE · DElimited data0% model · 0% market+30203at build
  • 46Mike GreenBAL · LBlimited data0% model · 0% market+30203at build
  • 47Trey HendricksonBAL · LBlimited data0% model · 0% market+30203at build
  • 48Sam WilliamsCLE · DElimited data0% model · 0% market+49900at build
  • 49Travis JonesBAL · DTlimited data0% model · 0% market+24900at build
  • 50Maliek CollinsCLE · DTlimited data0% model · 0% market+30203at build
  • 51Nnamdi MadubuikeBAL · DTlimited data0% model · 0% market+30203at build
First TD scorer market (29)

Ranked by market price. Our model covers anytime TD only, so the model column shows each player's anytime TD probability for context.

Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts

Sun 1:00 PM ET
Where the model sees valuemodel probability vs market-implied, by edge
  • DJ GiddensIND · RB16% model · 5% market+11.0pts+2001at build
  • Wan'Dale RobinsonDylan's pickTEN · WR24% model · 20% market+4.0pts+410at build
  • Seth McGowanIND · RB14% model · 11% market+2.5pts+780at build
model TD% market implied

Jonathan Taylor is the model's most likely scorer (55.4%) — but not a pick at today's price: the market is asking more than our number. Good pick, wrong price. Value opens at -124 or better.

Full model board · all 46 players (ranked by Model TD%)
#PlayerModel vs marketOdds
  • 1Jonathan Taylormodel's #1IND · RBoverpriced — value at -124 or better55% model · 72% market-256at build
  • 2Tyler WarrenIND · TEoverpriced — value at +187 or better35% model · 38% market+164at build
  • 3Tony PollardTEN · RBoverpriced — value at +216 or better32% model · 38% market+160at build
  • 4Josh DownsIND · WRoverpriced — value at +245 or better29% model · 34% market+198at build
  • 5Wan'Dale RobinsonDylan's pickTEN · WR24% model · 20% market+410at build
  • 6Carnell TateTEN · WR22% model · 25% market+300at build
  • 7Keenan AllenIND · WR18% model · 24% market+320at build
  • 8Laquon TreadwellIND · WR16% model · 17% market+490at build
  • 9DJ GiddensIND · RB16% model · 5% market+2001at build
  • 10Tyjae SpearsTEN · RB15% model · 17% market+480at build
  • 11Cam WardTEN · QB15% model · 18% market+450at build
  • 12Elic AyomanorTEN · WR15% model · 16% market+520at build
  • 13Seth McGowanIND · RB14% model · 11% market+780at build
  • 14Gunnar HelmTEN · TE12% model · 15% market+560at build
  • 15Daniel JonesIND · QB12% model · 18% market+460at build
  • 16Calvin RidleyTEN · WR11% model · 12% market+760at build
  • 17Mo Alie-CoxIND · TE11% model · 11% market+820at build
  • 18Andrew OgletreeIND · TE8% model · 13% market+680at build
  • 19Chimere DikeTEN · WR8% model · 10% market+880at build
  • 20Deion BurksIND · WRlimited data8% model · 6% market+1651at build
  • 21Daniel BellingerTEN · TE8% model · 7% market+1301at build
  • 22Pharaoh BrownIND · TE6% model · 7% market+1399at build
  • 23David Martin-RobinsonTEN · TE6% model · 3% market+3702at build
  • 24Ashton DulinIND · WR5% model · 19% market+420at build
  • 25Anthony GouldIND · WR4% model · 5% market+2001at build
  • 26Nicholas SingletonTEN · RBlimited data3% model · 10% market+900at build
  • 27Julius ChestnutTEN · RB1% model · 2% market+4305at build
  • 28Justin WalleyIND · CBlimited data1% model · 2% market+5888at build
  • 29Sauce GardnerIND · CBlimited data1% model · 1% market+7419at build
  • 30Marcus HarrisTEN · CBlimited data1% model · 1% market+9424at build
  • 31Charvarius WardIND · CBlimited data1% model · 1% market+9900at build
  • 32Alontae TaylorTEN · CBlimited data1% model · 1% market+10889at build
  • 33A.J. HaulcyIND · SAFlimited data1% model · 2% market+5888at build
  • 34Amani HookerTEN · SAFlimited data1% model · 1% market+9900at build
  • 35Tony AdamsTEN · SAFlimited data1% model · 1% market+10889at build
  • 36Cam BynumIND · UNKlimited data1% model · 2% market+6394at build
  • 37Akeem Davis-GaitherIND · LBlimited data0% model · 1% market+7419at build
  • 38Cody BartonTEN · LBlimited data0% model · 1% market+9424at build
  • 39Anthony Hill Jr.TEN · LBlimited data0% model · 1% market+11948at build
  • 40Laiatu LatuIND · DElimited data0% model · 0% market+22122at build
  • 41Jaylahn TuimoloauIND · DElimited data0% model · 0% market+30203at build
  • 42Jacob MartinTEN · DElimited data0% model · 0% market+49900at build
  • 43Jermaine Johnson IITEN · DElimited data0% model · 0% market+49900at build
  • 44DeForest BucknerIND · DTlimited data0% model · 1% market+16849at build
  • 45Jeffery SimmonsTEN · DTlimited data0% model · 0% market+26927at build
  • 46Grover StewartIND · DTlimited data0% model · 0% market+30203at build
First TD scorer market (27)

Ranked by market price. Our model covers anytime TD only, so the model column shows each player's anytime TD probability for context.

New York Jets @ New England Patriots

Sun 1:00 PM ET
Where the model sees valuemodel probability vs market-implied, by edge
  • Isaiah WilliamsNYJ · WR14% model · 8% market+6.0pts+1150at build
  • Tim PatrickNYJ · WR14% model · 10% market+4.1pts+900at build
  • Garrett WilsonDylan's pickNYJ · WR34% model · 31% market+3.1pts+220at build
model TD% market implied

Rhamondre Stevenson is the model's most likely scorer (46.3%) — but not a pick at today's price: the market is asking more than our number. Good pick, wrong price. Value opens at +116 or better.

Full model board · all 40 players (ranked by Model TD%)
#PlayerModel vs marketOdds
  • 1Rhamondre Stevensonmodel's #1NE · RBoverpriced — value at +116 or better46% model · 62% market-161at build
  • 2Garrett WilsonDylan's pickNYJ · WR34% model · 31% market+220at build
  • 3TreVeyon HendersonNE · RBoverpriced — value at +218 or better31% model · 42% market+140stale
  • 4Breece HallNYJ · RBoverpriced — value at +269 or better27% model · 45% market+124at build
  • 5Romeo DoubsNE · WRoverpriced — value at +280 or better26% model · 35% market+188at build
  • 6Braelon AllenNYJ · RB26% model · 40% market+148at build
  • 7A.J. BrownNE · WR26% model · 50% market+100at build
  • 8Hunter HenryNE · TE25% model · 33% market+200at build
  • 9Efton Chism IIINE · WR19% model · 21% market+380at build
  • 10Eli RaridonNE · TE18% model · 18% market+450at build
  • 11Adonai MitchellNYJ · WR17% model · 37% market+170at build
  • 12Drake MayeNE · QB16% model · 26% market+285at build
  • 13DeMario DouglasNE · WR15% model · 26% market+285at build
  • 14Kyle WilliamsNE · WR15% model · 15% market+580at build
  • 15Tim PatrickNYJ · WR14% model · 10% market+900at build
  • 16Corey KinerNE · RB14% model · 14% market+600at build
  • 17Isaiah WilliamsNYJ · WR14% model · 8% market+1150at build
  • 18Mason TaylorNYJ · TE11% model · 11% market+840at build
  • 19Kenyon SadiqNYJ · TE10% model · 20% market+410at build
  • 20Tanner ArkinNE · TElimited data8% model · 4% market+2199at build
  • 21Geno SmithNYJ · QB7% model · 8% market+1100at build
  • 22Jelani WoodsNYJ · TE7% model · 2% market+4102at build
  • 23Cameron LatuNE · TE5% model · 4% market+2199at build
  • 24Isaiah DavisNYJ · RB5% model · 11% market+780at build
  • 25Andrew BeckNYJ · FBlimited data5% model · 3% market+2799at build
  • 26Jeremy RuckertNYJ · TE5% model · 5% market+1748at build
  • 27Kene NwangwuNYJ · RB4% model · 4% market+2497at build
  • 28Omar Cooper Jr.NYJ · WRlimited data4% model · 16% market+520at build
  • 29Malik McClainNYJ · WRlimited data3% model · 2% market+4305at build
  • 30Minkah FitzpatrickNYJ · FSlimited data1% model · 1% market+11948at build
  • 31Brandon StephensNYJ · CBlimited data1% model · 1% market+9900at build
  • 32Azareye'h ThomasNYJ · CBlimited data1% model · 1% market+13985at build
  • 33Dane BeltonNYJ · SAFlimited data1% model · 1% market+8909at build
  • 34Jarvis Brownlee Jr.NYJ · DBlimited data1% model · 1% market+13985at build
  • 35Demario DavisNYJ · OLBlimited data1% model · 1% market+14825at build
  • 36Jamien SherwoodNYJ · LBlimited data0% model · 1% market+11948at build
  • 37David BaileyNYJ · LBlimited data0% model · 0% market+30203at build
  • 38Kingsley EnagbareNYJ · LBlimited data0% model · 0% market+30203at build
  • 39Harrison PhillipsNYJ · DTlimited data0% model · 0% market+49900at build
  • 40T'Vondre SweatNYJ · DTlimited data0% model · 0% market+49900at build
First TD scorer market (29)

Ranked by market price. Our model covers anytime TD only, so the model column shows each player's anytime TD probability for context.

New Orleans Saints @ New York Giants

Sun 1:00 PM ET
Where the model sees valuemodel probability vs market-implied, by edge
  • Cedric TillmanNO · WR20% model · 9% market+10.6pts+1000stale
  • Devaughn VeleDylan's pickNO · WR33% model · 26% market+6.5pts+285at build
  • Tyrone Tracy Jr.NYG · RB18% model · 13% market+5.6pts+700at build
  • Chris OlaveDylan's pickNO · WR43% model · 39% market+4.3pts+158at build
  • Theo JohnsonNYG · TE18% model · 14% market+4.1pts+600at build
  • Jameis WinstonNYG · QB15% model · 11% market+3.7pts+780at build
  • Malachi FieldsNYG · WR20% model · 18% market+2.9pts+470at build
  • Darnell MooneyNYG · WR16% model · 13% market+2.8pts+680at build
  • Noah FantNO · TE16% model · 13% market+2.7pts+660at build
model TD% market implied

Cam Skattebo is the model's most likely scorer (43.9%) — but not a pick at today's price: the market is asking more than our number. Good pick, wrong price. Value opens at +128 or better.

Full model board · all 37 players (ranked by Model TD%)
#PlayerModel vs marketOdds
  • 1Cam Skattebomodel's #1NYG · RBoverpriced — value at +128 or better44% model · 50% market-101at build
  • 2Chris OlaveDylan's pickNO · WR43% model · 39% market+158at build
  • 3Malik NabersNYG · WRoverpriced — value at +175 or better36% model · 37% market+172at build
  • 4Devaughn VeleDylan's pickNO · WR33% model · 26% market+285at build
  • 5Isaiah LikelyNYG · TEoverpriced — value at +276 or better27% model · 37% market+172at build
  • 6Juwan JohnsonNO · TE26% model · 27% market+275at build
  • 7Alvin KamaraNO · RB24% model · 27% market+275at build
  • 8Kendre MillerNO · RB21% model · 34% market+192at build
  • 9Malachi FieldsNYG · WR20% model · 18% market+470at build
  • 10Cedric TillmanNO · WR20% model · 9% market+1000stale
  • 11Theo JohnsonNYG · TE18% model · 14% market+600at build
  • 12Tyrone Tracy Jr.NYG · RB18% model · 13% market+700at build
  • 13Tyler ShoughNO · QB18% model · 23% market+330at build
  • 14Najee HarrisNYG · RB17% model · 21% market+370at build
  • 15Noah FantNO · TE16% model · 13% market+660at build
  • 16Darnell MooneyNYG · WR16% model · 13% market+680at build
  • 17Jameis WinstonNYG · QB15% model · 11% market+780at build
  • 18CJ DonaldsonNO · RB14% model · 18% market+460at build
  • 19Bryce LanceNO · WR12% model · 15% market+560at build
  • 20J.J. McCarthyNYG · QB9% model · 8% market+1150at build
  • 21Oscar DelpNO · TElimited data8% model · 6% market+1550at build
  • 22Patrick RicardNYG · RB8% model · 4% market+2400at build
  • 23Chris ManhertzNYG · TE5% model · 4% market+2400at build
  • 24Thomas Fidone IINYG · TElimited data5% model · 4% market+2400at build
  • 25Barion BrownNO · WR5% model · 5% market+2001at build
  • 26Dalen CambreNYG · WR5% model · 1% market+7419at build
  • 27Charlie JonesNYG · WR4% model · 7% market+1250at build
  • 28Greg Newsome IINYG · CBlimited data1% model · 2% market+5888at build
  • 29Deonte BanksNYG · CBlimited data1% model · 1% market+8375at build
  • 30Jevon HollandNYG · SAFlimited data1% model · 2% market+5888at build
  • 31Tremaine EdmundsNYG · MLBlimited data1% model · 2% market+4708at build
  • 32Dru PhillipsNYG · UNKlimited data1% model · 1% market+6893at build
  • 33Arvell ReeseNYG · LBlimited data0% model · 1% market+7900at build
  • 34Abdul CarterNYG · LBlimited data0% model · 0% market+24900at build
  • 35Kayvon ThibodeauxNYG · LBlimited data0% model · 0% market+30203at build
  • 36Shelby HarrisNYG · DElimited data0% model · 0% market+30203at build
  • 37DJ ReaderNYG · DTlimited data0% model · 0% market+30203at build
First TD scorer market (26)

Ranked by market price. Our model covers anytime TD only, so the model column shows each player's anytime TD probability for context.

Carolina Panthers @ Philadelphia Eagles

Sun 1:00 PM ET
Where the model sees valuemodel probability vs market-implied, by edge
  • Darius CooperDylan's pickPHI · WR17% model · 11% market+6.5pts+840at build
  • Brycen TremayneCAR · WR12% model · 9% market+3.3pts+1000at build
  • Mitchell EvansCAR · TE10% model · 9% market+1.0pts+1000at build
  • Makai LemonPHI · WR15% model · 14% market+1.0pts+600at build
model TD% market implied

Chuba Hubbard is the model's most likely scorer (38.2%) — but not a pick at today's price: the market is asking more than our number. Good pick, wrong price. Value opens at +162 or better.

Full model board · all 48 players (ranked by Model TD%)
#PlayerModel vs marketOdds
  • 1Chuba Hubbardmodel's #1CAR · RBoverpriced — value at +162 or better38% model · 54% market-116at build
  • 2Tetairoa McMillanCAR · WRoverpriced — value at +202 or better33% model · 36% market+180at build
  • 3Dallas GoedertPHI · TEoverpriced — value at +308 or better25% model · 26% market+290at build
  • 4Saquon BarkleyPHI · RBoverpriced — value at +363 or better22% model · 48% market+110at build
  • 5Dameon PiercePHI · RBoverpriced — value at +429 or better19% model · 38% market+164at build
  • 6Dontayvion WicksPHI · WR18% model · 19% market+440at build
  • 7Darius CooperDylan's pickPHI · WR17% model · 11% market+840at build
  • 8Darren WallerCAR · TE17% model · 22% market+350at build
  • 9Jalen CokerCAR · WR16% model · 27% market+270at build
  • 10Jalen HurtsPHI · QB16% model · 31% market+220at build
  • 11Makai LemonPHI · WR15% model · 14% market+600at build
  • 12Bryce YoungCAR · QB15% model · 17% market+500at build
  • 13Brycen TremayneCAR · WR12% model · 9% market+1000at build
  • 14John Metchie IIICAR · WR12% model · 11% market+800at build
  • 15Tommy TrembleCAR · TE10% model · 12% market+740at build
  • 16Mitchell EvansCAR · TE10% model · 9% market+1000at build
  • 17Zach ErtzPHI · TE10% model · 9% market+1000at build
  • 18Ja'Tavion SandersCAR · TE9% model · 4% market+2497at build
  • 19Elijah MoorePHI · WR8% model · 4% market+2199at build
  • 20Tanner McKeePHI · QB7% model · 14% market+600at build
  • 21AJ DillonCAR · RB7% model · 11% market+840stale
  • 22Will ShipleyPHI · RB7% model · 34% market+190stale
  • 23Johnny MundtPHI · TE6% model · 7% market+1301at build
  • 24David MooreCAR · WR6% model · 5% market+2001at build
  • 25Carson SteelePHI · RB5% model · 17% market+500at build
  • 26Anthony Tyus IIICAR · RBlimited data4% model · 9% market+1000stale
  • 27Trevor EtienneCAR · RB4% model · 18% market+450at build
  • 28E.J. JenkinsPHI · TE3% model · 3% market+3900at build
  • 29Feleipe FranksCAR · TE3% model · 3% market+2903at build
  • 30Britain CoveyPHI · WR3% model · 4% market+2199at build
  • 31Will Lee IIICAR · CBlimited data1% model · 2% market+4900at build
  • 32Quinyon MitchellPHI · CBlimited data1% model · 2% market+5395at build
  • 33Cooper DeJeanPHI · CBlimited data1% model · 2% market+5888at build
  • 34Riq WoolenPHI · CBlimited data1% model · 2% market+6394at build
  • 35Andrew MukubaPHI · SAFlimited data1% model · 2% market+4900at build
  • 36Nick ScottCAR · SAFlimited data1% model · 2% market+5395at build
  • 37Tre'von MoehrigCAR · SAFlimited data1% model · 2% market+6394at build
  • 38Marcus EppsPHI · SAFlimited data1% model · 1% market+6893at build
  • 39DeVonta SmithPHI · UNKlimited data1% model · 32% market+215at build
  • 40Hollywood BrownPHI · UNKlimited data1% model · 8% market+1200at build
  • 41Bobby OkerekeCAR · ILBlimited data1% model · 1% market+7419at build
  • 42Devin LloydCAR · LBlimited data0% model · 3% market+3702at build
  • 43Zack BaunPHI · LBlimited data0% model · 2% market+5888at build
  • 44Arnold EbiketiePHI · LBlimited data0% model · 0% market+30203at build
  • 45Nolan SmithPHI · LBlimited data0% model · 0% market+30203at build
  • 46Jalen CarterPHI · DTlimited data0% model · 1% market+17757at build
  • 47Moro OjomoPHI · DTlimited data0% model · 0% market+27678at build
  • 48Jordan DavisPHI · DTlimited data0% model · 0% market+30203at build
First TD scorer market (31)

Ranked by market price. Our model covers anytime TD only, so the model column shows each player's anytime TD probability for context.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Sun 1:00 PM ET
Where the model sees valuemodel probability vs market-implied, by edge
  • Jaylen WarrenDylan's pickmodel's #1PIT · RB55% model · 44% market+11.0pts+128at build
  • Bucky IrvingDylan's pickTB · RB41% model · 35% market+5.3pts+182at build
  • Cade OttonTB · TE20% model · 16% market+4.2pts+540at build
  • Chris Godwin Jr.TB · WR20% model · 19% market+1.2pts+430at build
model TD% market implied
Full model board · all 40 players (ranked by Model TD%)
#PlayerModel vs marketOdds
  • 1Jaylen WarrenDylan's pickmodel's #1PIT · RB55% model · 44% market+128at build
  • 2Bucky IrvingDylan's pickTB · RB41% model · 35% market+182at build
  • 3DK MetcalfPIT · WRoverpriced — value at +221 or better31% model · 34% market+192at build
  • 4Pat FreiermuthPIT · TEoverpriced — value at +346 or better22% model · 25% market+300at build
  • 5Emeka EgbukaTB · WRoverpriced — value at +363 or better22% model · 26% market+290at build
  • 6Rico DowdlePIT · RB21% model · 22% market+360at build
  • 7Germie BernardPIT · WR20% model · 26% market+280at build
  • 8Chris Godwin Jr.TB · WR20% model · 19% market+430at build
  • 9Cade OttonTB · TE20% model · 16% market+540at build
  • 10Darnell WashingtonPIT · TE14% model · 18% market+460at build
  • 11Roman WilsonPIT · WR14% model · 27% market+270stale
  • 12Jalon DanielsTB · QBlimited data12% model · 21% market+380at build
  • 13Tez JohnsonTB · WR11% model · 13% market+700at build
  • 14Baker MayfieldTB · QB10% model · 13% market+700stale
  • 15Brandon SmithPIT · WRlimited data8% model · 9% market+1049at build
  • 16Aaron RodgersPIT · QB8% model · 6% market+1601at build
  • 17Sean TuckerTB · RB7% model · 18% market+460at build
  • 18Payne DurhamTB · TE6% model · 3% market+2799at build
  • 19Riley NowakowskiPIT · FBlimited data5% model · 2% market+4508at build
  • 20Kaden WetjenPIT · WR4% model · 7% market+1250at build
  • 21Bauer SharpTB · TE4% model · 2% market+4305at build
  • 22Kameron JohnsonTB · WR3% model · 3% market+3301at build
  • 23Ben SkowronekPIT · WR3% model · 8% market+1200at build
  • 24Eli HeidenreichPIT · RBlimited data3% model · 7% market+1250at build
  • 25Robert TonyanPIT · TE2% model · 3% market+2903at build
  • 26Travis HomerPIT · RB2% model · 3% market+3497at build
  • 27Ko KieftTB · TE2% model · 2% market+4305at build
  • 28Jacob ParrishTB · CBlimited data1% model · 2% market+5395at build
  • 29Zyon McCollumTB · CBlimited data1% model · 1% market+7419at build
  • 30Asante Samuel Jr.PIT · CBlimited data1% model · 1% market+10889at build
  • 31Tykee SmithTB · SAFlimited data1% model · 1% market+6893at build
  • 32Ifeatu MelifonwuTB · SAFlimited data1% model · 1% market+7419at build
  • 33Jaquan BriskerPIT · SAFlimited data1% model · 1% market+9900at build
  • 34Alex AnzaloneTB · MLBlimited data1% model · 1% market+10889at build
  • 35Patrick QueenPIT · LBlimited data0% model · 2% market+5395at build
  • 36Payton WilsonPIT · LBlimited data0% model · 2% market+5888at build
  • 37Yaya DiabyTB · LBlimited data0% model · 0% market+30203at build
  • 38Rueben Bain Jr.TB · LBlimited data0% model · 0% market+49900at build
  • 39Vita VeaTB · DTlimited data0% model · 0% market+30203at build
  • 40Calijah KanceyTB · DTlimited data0% model · 0% market+49900at build
First TD scorer market (27)

Ranked by market price. Our model covers anytime TD only, so the model column shows each player's anytime TD probability for context.

Arizona Cardinals @ Los Angeles Rams

Sun 4:05 PM ET
Where the model sees valuemodel probability vs market-implied, by edge
  • Max KlareLAR · TElimited data14% model · 5% market+9.2pts+1801at build
  • Dean ConnorsLAR · RBlimited data11% model · 3% market+8.8pts+3900at build
  • Colby ParkinsonDylan's pickLAR · TE30% model · 22% market+8.1pts+350at build
  • Tyler HigbeeDylan's pickLAR · TE33% model · 26% market+7.1pts+285at build
  • Davis AllenLAR · TE16% model · 11% market+4.6pts+820at build
  • Tutu AtwellLAR · WR15% model · 10% market+4.5pts+880at build
  • Konata MumpfieldLAR · WR12% model · 8% market+3.8pts+1150at build
  • Trey McBrideDylan's pickARI · TE41% model · 37% market+3.2pts+168at build
  • Jacoby BrissettARI · QB12% model · 11% market+1.1pts+820at build
model TD% market implied

Kyren Williams is the model's most likely scorer (59.3%) — but not a pick at today's price: the market is asking more than our number. Good pick, wrong price. Value opens at -146 or better.

Full model board · all 46 players (ranked by Model TD%)
#PlayerModel vs marketOdds
  • 1Kyren Williamsmodel's #1LAR · RBoverpriced — value at -146 or better59% model · 65% market-185at build
  • 2Puka NacuaLAR · WRoverpriced — value at -103 or better51% model · 58% market-141at build
  • 3Davante AdamsLAR · WRoverpriced — value at +135 or better43% model · 53% market-112at build
  • 4Trey McBrideDylan's pickARI · TE41% model · 37% market+168at build
  • 5Blake CorumLAR · RBoverpriced — value at +177 or better36% model · 39% market+158at build
  • 6Tyler HigbeeDylan's pickLAR · TE33% model · 26% market+285at build
  • 7Michael WilsonARI · WR33% model · 32% market+210at build
  • 8Jeremiyah LoveARI · RB31% model · 43% market+134stale
  • 9Colby ParkinsonDylan's pickLAR · TE30% model · 22% market+350at build
  • 10Tyler AllgeierARI · RB21% model · 43% market+130at build
  • 11Davis AllenLAR · TE16% model · 11% market+820at build
  • 12Tutu AtwellLAR · WR15% model · 10% market+880at build
  • 13Max KlareLAR · TElimited data14% model · 5% market+1801at build
  • 14Jacoby BrissettARI · QB12% model · 11% market+820at build
  • 15Konata MumpfieldLAR · WR12% model · 8% market+1150at build
  • 16Dean ConnorsLAR · RBlimited data11% model · 3% market+3900at build
  • 17Kendrick BourneARI · WR11% model · 16% market+540at build
  • 18Teagan QuitorianoARI · TE10% model · 9% market+1000at build
  • 19Elijah HigginsARI · TE10% model · 9% market+1000at build
  • 20Reggie VirgilARI · WRlimited data10% model · 5% market+2098at build
  • 21Jalen BrooksARI · WR8% model · 14% market+620at build
  • 22Jordan WhittingtonLAR · WR8% model · 7% market+1301at build
  • 23Shawn BowmanARI · TElimited data7% model · 3% market+3702at build
  • 24Matthew StaffordLAR · QB7% model · 6% market+1550at build
  • 25Evan HullARI · RB6% model · 10% market+880at build
  • 26Alex BachmanLAR · WR6% model · 4% market+2701at build
  • 27Simi FehokoARI · WR3% model · 2% market+4305at build
  • 28Devin DuvernayARI · WR3% model · 4% market+2400at build
  • 29Trent McDuffieLAR · CBlimited data1% model · 1% market+7419at build
  • 30Jaylen WatsonLAR · CBlimited data1% model · 1% market+7900at build
  • 31Denzel BurkeARI · CBlimited data1% model · 1% market+8375at build
  • 32Kam CurlLAR · SAFlimited data1% model · 2% market+4708at build
  • 33Kamren KinchensLAR · SAFlimited data1% model · 2% market+6394at build
  • 34Quentin LakeLAR · SAFlimited data1% model · 1% market+7419at build
  • 35Dadrion Taylor-DemersonARI · SAFlimited data1% model · 1% market+8375at build
  • 36Byron YoungLAR · LBlimited data0% model · 1% market+8909at build
  • 37Josaiah StewartLAR · LBlimited data0% model · 1% market+9900at build
  • 38Nate LandmanLAR · LBlimited data0% model · 1% market+9900at build
  • 39Mack WilsonARI · LBlimited data0% model · 1% market+11948at build
  • 40Jack GibbensARI · LBlimited data0% model · 0% market+27678at build
  • 41Aaron DonaldLAR · DElimited data0% model · 0% market+29312at build
  • 42Braden FiskeLAR · DElimited data0% model · 0% market+30203at build
  • 43Josh SweatARI · LBlimited data0% model · 0% market+30203at build
  • 44Kobie TurnerLAR · DElimited data0% model · 0% market+30203at build
  • 45Dante StillsARI · DTlimited data0% model · 0% market+49900at build
  • 46Walter NolenARI · DTlimited data0% model · 0% market+49900at build
First TD scorer market (28)

Ranked by market price. Our model covers anytime TD only, so the model column shows each player's anytime TD probability for context.

Los Angeles Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs

Sun 4:25 PM ET
Where the model sees valuemodel probability vs market-implied, by edge
  • Theo Wease Jr.LAC · WR13% model · 5% market+7.9pts+1801at build
  • Emmett JohnsonDylan's pickKC · RB15% model · 14% market+0.8pts+600at build
model TD% market implied
Full model board · all 41 players (ranked by Model TD%)
#PlayerModel vs marketOdds
First TD scorer market (29)

Ranked by market price. Our model covers anytime TD only, so the model column shows each player's anytime TD probability for context.

Buffalo Bills @ Las Vegas Raiders

Sun 4:25 PM ET
Where the model sees valuemodel probability vs market-implied, by edge
  • Ray DavisBUF · RB20% model · 10% market+9.6pts+880at build
  • Ty JohnsonBUF · RB24% model · 18% market+6.8pts+470at build
  • Ian ThomasLV · TE12% model · 6% market+6.0pts+1699at build
  • Jackson HawesBUF · TE15% model · 10% market+5.6pts+950at build
  • Dawson KnoxBUF · TE22% model · 17% market+5.1pts+500at build
  • Greg DortchBUF · WR10% model · 5% market+4.7pts+1801at build
  • Keon ColemanDylan's pickBUF · WR28% model · 25% market+3.3pts+300at build
  • Josh AllenDylan's pickmodel's #1BUF · QB60% model · 60% market+0.4pts-149at build
model TD% market implied
Full model board · all 37 players (ranked by Model TD%)
#PlayerModel vs marketOdds
  • 1Josh AllenDylan's pickmodel's #1BUF · QB60% model · 60% market-149at build
  • 2James CookBUF · RBoverpriced — value at -130 or better57% model · 63% market-172at build
  • 3Ashton JeantyLV · RB53% model · 53% market-111at build
  • 4Brock BowersLV · TEoverpriced — value at +125 or better44% model · 51% market-105at build
  • 5Dalton KincaidBUF · TEoverpriced — value at +228 or better31% model · 35% market+188at build
  • 6Keon ColemanDylan's pickBUF · WR28% model · 25% market+300at build
  • 7Tre TuckerLV · WR27% model · 26% market+290at build
  • 8Khalil ShakirBUF · WR26% model · 29% market+240at build
  • 9Ty JohnsonBUF · RB24% model · 18% market+470at build
  • 10Michael MayerLV · TE24% model · 25% market+300at build
  • 11DJ MooreBUF · WR23% model · 31% market+225at build
  • 12Dawson KnoxBUF · TE22% model · 17% market+500at build
  • 13Ray DavisBUF · RB20% model · 10% market+880at build
  • 14Mike Washington Jr.LV · RB17% model · 17% market+490at build
  • 15Jackson HawesBUF · TE15% model · 10% market+950at build
  • 16Josh PalmerBUF · WR15% model · 22% market+350at build
  • 17Jalen NailorLV · WR14% model · 18% market+470at build
  • 18Dylan LaubeLV · RB12% model · 17% market+480at build
  • 19Ian ThomasLV · TE12% model · 6% market+1699at build
  • 20Cody WhiteLV · WR11% model · 12% market+720at build
  • 21Greg DortchBUF · WR10% model · 5% market+1801at build
  • 22Kirk CousinsLV · QB9% model · 5% market+1748at build
  • 23Malik BensonLV · WR9% model · 6% market+1651at build
  • 24Dont'e Thornton Jr.LV · WR9% model · 14% market+600at build
  • 25Keleki LatuBUF · TE7% model · 8% market+1150at build
  • 26Connor HeywardLV · FBlimited data5% model · 6% market+1450at build
  • 27Dareke YoungLV · WR4% model · 5% market+1849at build
  • 28Christian BenfordBUF · CBlimited data1% model · 2% market+4305at build
  • 29C.J. Gardner-JohnsonBUF · SAFlimited data1% model · 2% market+4900at build
  • 30Cole BishopBUF · SAFlimited data1% model · 2% market+5888at build
  • 31Jeremy ChinnLV · SAFlimited data1% model · 1% market+10889at build
  • 32Treydan StukesLV · SAFlimited data1% model · 1% market+18768at build
  • 33Dorian WilliamsBUF · LBlimited data0% model · 1% market+7419at build
  • 34Terrel BernardBUF · LBlimited data0% model · 1% market+8375at build
  • 35Quay WalkerLV · LBlimited data0% model · 1% market+9424at build
  • 36Nakobe DeanLV · LBlimited data0% model · 1% market+17757at build
  • 37Adam ButlerLV · DTlimited data0% model · 0% market+30203at build
First TD scorer market (27)

Ranked by market price. Our model covers anytime TD only, so the model column shows each player's anytime TD probability for context.

Dallas Cowboys @ Green Bay Packers

Sun 8:20 PM ET
Where the model sees valuemodel probability vs market-implied, by edge
  • Josh WhyleGB · TE19% model · 8% market+10.4pts+1100at build
  • Tucker KraftDylan's pickGB · TE39% model · 34% market+4.9pts+194at build
  • Mark RedmanGB · TElimited data12% model · 8% market+3.9pts+1100at build
  • Camden BrownDAL · WRlimited data11% model · 8% market+2.8pts+1200at build
  • Ryan FlournoyDAL · WR24% model · 22% market+1.7pts+350at build
  • Hunter LuepkeDAL · RB10% model · 9% market+1.4pts+1049at build
model TD% market implied

Javonte Williams is the model's most likely scorer (52.9%) — but not a pick at today's price: the market is asking more than our number. Good pick, wrong price. Value opens at -112 or better.

Full model board · all 63 players (ranked by Model TD%)
#PlayerModel vs marketOdds
  • 1Javonte Williamsmodel's #1DAL · RBoverpriced — value at -112 or better53% model · 64% market-179at build
  • 2Christian WatsonDylan's pickGB · WR42% model · 43% market+134at build
  • 3Tucker KraftDylan's pickGB · TE39% model · 34% market+194at build
  • 4MarShawn LloydGB · RBoverpriced — value at +198 or better34% model · 56% market-125at build
  • 5George PickensDAL · WRoverpriced — value at +199 or better34% model · 37% market+172at build
  • 6CeeDee LambDAL · WR32% model · 42% market+138at build
  • 7Matthew GoldenGB · WR31% model · 37% market+172at build
  • 8Jake FergusonDAL · TE25% model · 26% market+290at build
  • 9Ryan FlournoyDAL · WR24% model · 22% market+350at build
  • 10Josh WhyleGB · TE19% model · 8% market+1100at build
  • 11Pierre StrongGB · RB16% model · 31% market+220at build
  • 12Kaleb JohnsonGB · RB16% model · 16% market+540at build
  • 13Bo MeltonGB · WR12% model · 19% market+440at build
  • 14Mark RedmanGB · TElimited data12% model · 8% market+1100at build
  • 15KaVontae TurpinDAL · WR12% model · 12% market+760at build
  • 16Camden BrownDAL · WRlimited data11% model · 8% market+1200at build
  • 17Hunter LuepkeDAL · RB10% model · 9% market+1049at build
  • 18Brevyn Spann-FordDAL · TE9% model · 10% market+950at build
  • 19Dak PrescottDAL · QB9% model · 14% market+620at build
  • 20Jonnu SmithGB · TE9% model · 12% market+720at build
  • 21Skyy MooreGB · WR8% model · 20% market+400stale
  • 22J. Michael SturdivantGB · WR8% model · 10% market+950at build
  • 23Jordan LoveGB · QB8% model · 10% market+880at build
  • 24Savion WilliamsGB · WR8% model · 15% market+560at build
  • 25Jonathan MingoDAL · WR7% model · 10% market+900at build
  • 26Luke SchoonmakerDAL · TE6% model · 7% market+1250at build
  • 27Tyler GoodsonDAL · RB5% model · 10% market+900at build
  • 28Malik HookerDAL · FSlimited data1% model · 2% market+6394at build
  • 29DaRon BlandDAL · CBlimited data1% model · 2% market+5395at build
  • 30Brandon CisseGB · CBlimited data1% model · 1% market+6893stale
  • 31Cobie DurantDAL · CBlimited data1% model · 1% market+9424stale
  • 32Joey Porter Jr.DAL · CBlimited data1% model · 1% market+9900at build
  • 33Shavon Revel Jr.DAL · CBlimited data1% model · 1% market+18768stale
  • 34Ameer SpeedDAL · CBlimited data1% model · 0% market+24900stale
  • 35Xavier McKinneyGB · SAFlimited data1% model · 2% market+5395at build
  • 36Evan WilliamsGB · SAFlimited data1% model · 2% market+6394at build
  • 37Javon BullardGB · SAFlimited data1% model · 1% market+6893at build
  • 38Keisean NixonGB · DBlimited data1% model · 1% market+6893at build
  • 39Caleb DownsDAL · SAFlimited data1% model · 1% market+7419at build
  • 40Markquese BellDAL · SAFlimited data1% model · 0% market+23710stale
  • 41Alijah ClarkDAL · DBlimited data1% model · 0% market+49900stale
  • 42Caelen CarsonDAL · DBlimited data1% model · 0% market+49900stale
  • 43Zaire FranklinGB · OLBlimited data1% model · 1% market+7900at build
  • 44Von MillerDAL · OLBlimited data1% model · 0% market+49900at build
  • 45Dee WintersDAL · LBlimited data0% model · 1% market+7900at build
  • 46Donovan EzeiruakuDAL · LBlimited data0% model · 1% market+18768at build
  • 47Jaishawn BarhamDAL · LBlimited data0% model · 0% market+26216stale
  • 48Brenton Cox Jr.GB · DElimited data0% model · 0% market+30203at build
  • 49Dani Dennis-SuttonGB · LBlimited data0% model · 0% market+30203at build
  • 50Lukas Van NessGB · LBlimited data0% model · 0% market+30203at build
  • 51Rashan GaryDAL · LBlimited data0% model · 0% market+30203at build
  • 52Barryn SorrellGB · DElimited data0% model · 0% market+49900at build
  • 53James HoustonDAL · LBlimited data0% model · 0% market+49900at build
  • 54Justin BarronDAL · LBlimited data0% model · 0% market+49900stale
  • 55Malachi LawrenceDAL · LBlimited data0% model · 0% market+49900stale
  • 56Shemar JamesDAL · LBlimited data0% model · 0% market+49900at build
  • 57Kenny ClarkDAL · NTlimited data0% model · 0% market+30203at build
  • 58Devonte WyattGB · DTlimited data0% model · 0% market+30203at build
  • 59Quinnen WilliamsDAL · DTlimited data0% model · 0% market+30203at build
  • 60Chris McClellanGB · DTlimited data0% model · 0% market+49900at build
  • 61Karl BrooksGB · DTlimited data0% model · 0% market+49900at build
  • 62LT OvertonDAL · DTlimited data0% model · 0% market+49900at build
  • 63Otito OgbonniaDAL · DTlimited data0% model · 0% market+49900stale
First TD scorer market (27)

Ranked by market price. Our model covers anytime TD only, so the model column shows each player's anytime TD probability for context.

Model edge is our calibrated anytime-TD probability minus the market-implied probability from the current price. A positive edge means our model rates the player higher than the market is pricing. Players without a positive edge are not plays at today's prices — however likely they are to score.

Limited data marks players with thin history (rookies, new roles); their probability is shrunk toward a position baseline and should be read cautiously.

Model TD% is a probability, not a prediction of certainty. Odds are the market offers captured when this board was built.

Model nfl_atd-v1r2-20260930

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