NFL Betting
Odds, predictions, standings, and expert analysis for every NFL game
Anytime TD Board · 2026-11-08
This board is shown exactly as it was published before kickoff. Probabilities and odds are not updated after the slate.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Atlanta Falcons
Sun 9:30 AM ETWhere the model sees valuemodel probability vs market-implied, by edge
- Mitchell TinsleyCIN · WR12% model · 8% market+3.9pts+1200stale
- Charlie WoernerATL · TE11% model · 9% market+2.7pts+1049stale
- Jahan DotsonATL · WR24% model · 22% market+2.2pts+350stale
- Samaje PerineCIN · RB27% model · 26% market+1.1pts+285stale
Bijan Robinson is the model's most likely scorer (59.1%) — but not a pick at today's price: the market is asking more than our number. Good pick, wrong price. Value opens at -144 or better.
Full model board · all 38 players (ranked by Model TD%)
#PlayerModel vs marketOdds
- 1Bijan Robinsonmodel's #1ATL · RBoverpriced — value at -144 or better59% model · 72% market-256stale
- 2Chase BrownCIN · RBoverpriced — value at -104 or better51% model · 61% market-159stale
- 3Tee HigginsCIN · WR45% modelNo price
- 4Ja'Marr ChaseDylan's pickCIN · WR41% modelNo price
- 5Drake LondonATL · WR40% model · 40% market+152stale
- 6Mike GesickiCIN · TE33% modelNo price
- 7Samaje PerineCIN · RB27% model · 26% market+285stale
- 8Jahan DotsonATL · WR24% model · 22% market+350stale
- 9Kyle PittsATL · TE24% model · 28% market+260stale
- 10Dohnte MeyersCIN · WR16% model · 19% market+420stale
- 11Brian RobinsonATL · RB16% model · 29% market+250stale
- 12Joe BurrowCIN · QB16% model · 15% market+560stale
- 13Khalil HerbertATL · RB15% model · 21% market+370stale
- 14Olamide ZaccheausATL · WR13% model · 15% market+560stale
- 15Mitchell TinsleyCIN · WR12% model · 8% market+1200stale
- 16Charlie WoernerATL · TE11% model · 9% market+1049stale
- 17Jack EndriesCIN · TElimited data11% model · 11% market+780stale
- 18Drew SampleCIN · TE11% model · 13% market+660stale
- 19Austin HooperATL · TE10% model · 10% market+900stale
- 20Michael Penix Jr.ATL · QB9% model · 10% market+950stale
- 21Beaux CollinsATL · WR9% model · 6% market+1450stale
- 22Nick MuseATL · TE8% model · 4% market+2497stale
- 23Tahj BrooksCIN · RB8% model · 3% market+3105stale
- 24Zachariah BranchATL · WR7% model · 14% market+600stale
- 25Cam GrandyCIN · TE7% model · 11% market+780stale
- 26Colbie YoungCIN · WRlimited data5% model · 7% market+1349stale
- 27Chris BlairATL · WR5% model · 5% market+1849stale
- 28Jessie BatesATL · FSlimited data1% model · 1% market+6893stale
- 29A.J. TerrellATL · CBlimited data1% model · 1% market+8375stale
- 30C.J. HendersonATL · CBlimited data1% model · 1% market+10889stale
- 31Jordan BattleCIN · SAFlimited data1% model · 2% market+4708stale
- 32Xavier WattsATL · SAFlimited data1% model · 2% market+5395stale
- 33Bryan CookCIN · SAFlimited data1% model · 2% market+5888stale
- 34Demetrius Knight Jr.CIN · LBlimited data0% model · 2% market+5395stale
- 35Barrett CarterCIN · LBlimited data0% model · 1% market+8375stale
- 36Brandon DorlusATL · DElimited data0% model · 0% market+30203stale
- 37Maason SmithATL · DTlimited data0% model · 0% market+30203stale
- 38Gervon Dexter Sr.ATL · DTlimited data0% model · 0% market+49900stale
First TD scorer market (26)
Ranked by market price. Our model covers anytime TD only, so the model column shows each player's anytime TD probability for context.
- 1Bijan RobinsonATL · RBATD 59.1%+310stale
- 2Chase BrownCIN · RBATD 50.9%+360stale
- 3Ja'Marr ChaseCIN · WRATD 41.1%+560stale
- 4Tee HigginsCIN · WRATD 44.6%+660stale
- 5Drake LondonATL · WRATD 40.2%+820stale
- 6Mike GesickiCIN · TEATD 33.3%+1349stale
- 7Samaje PerineCIN · RBATD 27.1%+1550stale
- 8Kyle PittsATL · TEATD 23.8%+1651stale
- 9Brian RobinsonATL · RBATD 15.8%+1748stale
- 10Jahan DotsonATL · WRATD 24.4%+1801stale
- 11Dohnte MeyersCIN · WRATD 16.3%+2400stale
- 12Khalil HerbertATL · RBATD 14.8%+2497stale
- 13Joe BurrowCIN · QBATD 15.6%+3105stale
- 14Olamide ZaccheausATL · WRATD 12.8%+3105stale
- 15Austin HooperATL · TEATD 9.5%+3702stale
- 16Drew SampleCIN · TEATD 10.6%+3702stale
- 17Zachariah BranchATL · WRATD 7.2%+3900stale
- 18Michael Penix Jr.ATL · QBATD 9.2%+4305stale
- 19Cam GrandyCIN · TEATD 7.1%+4708stale
- 20Jack EndriesCIN · TEATD 11.3%+4708stale
- 21Charlie WoernerATL · TEATD 11.4%+4900stale
- 22Mitchell TinsleyCIN · WRATD 11.6%+5888stale
- 23Colbie YoungCIN · WRATD 4.7%+7419stale
- 24Chris BlairATL · WRATD 4.5%+9424stale
- 25Nick MuseATL · TEATD 8.2%+9424stale
- 26Tahj BrooksCIN · RBATD 7.8%+9424stale
Dallas Cowboys @ Indianapolis Colts
Sun 1:00 PM ETWhere the model sees valuemodel probability vs market-implied, by edge
- Camden BrownDAL · WRlimited data12% model · 5% market+6.4pts+1801at build
- James MitchellDAL · TE13% model · 7% market+5.5pts+1250stale
- Mo Alie-CoxIND · TE11% model · 7% market+3.4pts+1250at build
- Hunter LuepkeDAL · RB10% model · 8% market+2.3pts+1150at build
Javonte Williams is the model's most likely scorer (55.4%) — but not a pick at today's price: the market is asking more than our number. Good pick, wrong price. Value opens at -124 or better.
Full model board · all 42 players (ranked by Model TD%)
#PlayerModel vs marketOdds
- 1Javonte Williamsmodel's #1DAL · RBoverpriced — value at -124 or better55% model · 66% market-196at build
- 2Jonathan TaylorIND · RB54% model · 54% market-116at build
- 3CeeDee LambDAL · WRoverpriced — value at +140 or better42% model · 51% market-105at build
- 4George PickensDAL · WRoverpriced — value at +219 or better31% model · 40% market+152at build
- 5Ryan FlournoyDAL · WRoverpriced — value at +246 or better29% model · 33% market+200at build
- 6Tyler WarrenIND · TE28% model · 33% market+205at build
- 7Josh DownsIND · WR25% model · 24% market+310at build
- 8Keenan AllenIND · WR19% model · 28% market+255at build
- 9Brevyn Spann-FordDAL · TE18% model · 25% market+300at build
- 10Laquon TreadwellIND · WR17% model · 18% market+460at build
- 11Jake FergusonDAL · TE16% model · 25% market+300at build
- 12Seth McGowanIND · RB15% model · 32% market+210at build
- 13DJ GiddensIND · RB14% model · 26% market+290at build
- 14Tyler GoodsonDAL · RB14% model · 19% market+430at build
- 15James MitchellDAL · TE13% model · 7% market+1250stale
- 16Dak PrescottDAL · QB12% model · 17% market+500at build
- 17Camden BrownDAL · WRlimited data12% model · 5% market+1801at build
- 18Daniel JonesIND · QB11% model · 15% market+580at build
- 19Mo Alie-CoxIND · TE11% model · 7% market+1250at build
- 20Hunter LuepkeDAL · RB10% model · 8% market+1150at build
- 21Deion BurksIND · WR10% model · 9% market+1049at build
- 22Ashton DulinIND · WR9% model · 7% market+1250at build
- 23Andrew OgletreeIND · TE8% model · 5% market+2098at build
- 24Jonathan MingoDAL · WR7% model · 13% market+660at build
- 25KaVontae TurpinDAL · WR6% model · 14% market+620at build
- 26Will MalloryIND · TE6% model · 6% market+1651at build
- 27Luke SchoonmakerDAL · TE4% model · 11% market+840at build
- 28Anthony GouldIND · WR3% model · 7% market+1250at build
- 29Malik HookerDAL · FSlimited data1% model · 2% market+6394at build
- 30DaRon BlandDAL · CBlimited data1% model · 2% market+5888at build
- 31Charvarius WardIND · CBlimited data1% model · 1% market+10889at build
- 32Sauce GardnerIND · CBlimited data1% model · 1% market+10889at build
- 33Caleb DownsDAL · SAFlimited data1% model · 2% market+4900at build
- 34A.J. HaulcyIND · SAFlimited data1% model · 1% market+8375at build
- 35Cam BynumIND · UNKlimited data1% model · 1% market+6893at build
- 36DeMarvion OvershownDAL · LBlimited data0% model · 1% market+10889at build
- 37Shemar JamesDAL · LBlimited data0% model · 1% market+10889at build
- 38CJ AllenIND · LBlimited data0% model · 1% market+16849at build
- 39Jaylahn TuimoloauIND · DElimited data0% model · 0% market+30203at build
- 40Laiatu LatuIND · DElimited data0% model · 0% market+30203at build
- 41Adetomiwa AdebaworeIND · DTlimited data0% model · 0% market+30203at build
- 42Grover StewartIND · DTlimited data0% model · 0% market+30203at build
First TD scorer market (28)
Ranked by market price. Our model covers anytime TD only, so the model column shows each player's anytime TD probability for context.
- 1Javonte WilliamsDAL · RBATD 55.4%+350at build
- 2Jonathan TaylorIND · RBATD 54.0%+480at build
- 3CeeDee LambDAL · WRATD 41.6%+540at build
- 4George PickensDAL · WRATD 31.3%+700at build
- 5Ryan FlournoyDAL · WRATD 28.9%+1100at build
- 6Seth McGowanIND · RBATD 14.7%+1200at build
- 7Tyler WarrenIND · TEATD 28.5%+1200at build
- 8Keenan AllenIND · WRATD 19.3%+1550at build
- 9Brevyn Spann-FordDAL · TEATD 18.3%+1601at build
- 10Jake FergusonDAL · TEATD 15.5%+1801stale
- 11Josh DownsIND · WRATD 25.0%+1900at build
- 12DJ GiddensIND · RBATD 13.6%+2001at build
- 13Daniel JonesIND · QBATD 11.4%+2001at build
- 14Tyler GoodsonDAL · RBATD 13.6%+2199at build
- 15Dak PrescottDAL · QBATD 11.9%+2903at build
- 16Laquon TreadwellIND · WRATD 17.0%+2903at build
- 17KaVontae TurpinDAL · WRATD 6.1%+3497stale
- 18Jonathan MingoDAL · WRATD 7.1%+3900at build
- 19Luke SchoonmakerDAL · TEATD 3.9%+4900stale
- 20Ashton DulinIND · WRATD 8.5%+5395at build
- 21Deion BurksIND · WRATD 9.5%+5395at build
- 22Hunter LuepkeDAL · RBATD 10.3%+6394at build
- 23Mo Alie-CoxIND · TEATD 10.8%+6394at build
- 24Anthony GouldIND · WRATD 2.5%+7900at build
- 25Camden BrownDAL · WRATD 11.7%+7900at build
- 26James MitchellDAL · TEATD 12.9%+7900stale
- 27Will MalloryIND · TEATD 5.5%+7900at build
- 28Andrew OgletreeIND · TEATD 7.9%+9900at build
New York Jets @ Kansas City Chiefs
Sun 1:00 PM ETWhere the model sees valuemodel probability vs market-implied, by edge
- Braelon AllenDylan's pickNYJ · RB44% model · 27% market+16.1pts+265at build
- Jaydn OttKC · RBlimited data10% model · 3% market+6.8pts+2799at build
- Andrew ArmstrongKC · WRlimited data12% model · 10% market+2.8pts+950at build
- Jalen RoyalsKC · WR13% model · 11% market+2.6pts+840at build
- Emmett JohnsonKC · RB23% model · 21% market+1.8pts+370at build
- Garrett WilsonNYJ · WR33% model · 31% market+1.6pts+220stale
- Noah GrayKC · TE18% model · 17% market+1.1pts+500at build
Kenneth Walker III is the model's most likely scorer (60.3%) — but not a pick at today's price: the market is asking more than our number. Good pick, wrong price. Value opens at -152 or better.
Full model board · all 44 players (ranked by Model TD%)
#PlayerModel vs marketOdds
- 1Kenneth Walker IIImodel's #1KC · RBoverpriced — value at -152 or better60% model · 67% market-204at build
- 2Braelon AllenDylan's pickNYJ · RB44% model · 27% market+265at build
- 3Rashee RiceKC · WRoverpriced — value at +162 or better38% model · 41% market+142at build
- 4Travis KelceKC · TEoverpriced — value at +182 or better36% model · 38% market+164at build
- 5Garrett WilsonNYJ · WR33% model · 31% market+220stale
- 6Breece HallNYJ · RB31% model · 34% market+198at build
- 7Xavier WorthyKC · WR27% model · 34% market+196at build
- 8Omar Cooper Jr.NYJ · WRlimited data24% model · 24% market+320at build
- 9Emmett JohnsonKC · RB23% model · 21% market+370at build
- 10Adonai MitchellNYJ · WR21% model · 25% market+295at build
- 11Noah GrayKC · TE18% model · 17% market+500at build
- 12Patrick MahomesKC · QB17% model · 20% market+400at build
- 13Mason TaylorNYJ · TE15% model · 20% market+400at build
- 14Cyrus AllenKC · WR13% model · 18% market+460at build
- 15Jalen RoyalsKC · WR13% model · 11% market+840at build
- 16Kenyon SadiqNYJ · TE13% model · 16% market+540at build
- 17Andrew ArmstrongKC · WRlimited data12% model · 10% market+950at build
- 18Jaydn OttKC · RBlimited data10% model · 3% market+2799at build
- 19Tim PatrickNYJ · WR10% model · 11% market+820at build
- 20Jared WileyKC · TElimited data9% model · 5% market+1801at build
- 21Isaiah WilliamsNYJ · WR8% model · 7% market+1250at build
- 22Jake BriningstoolKC · TE8% model · 5% market+1801at build
- 23Geno SmithNYJ · QB8% model · 7% market+1250at build
- 24Isaiah DavisNYJ · RB7% model · 4% market+2701at build
- 25Nikko RemigioKC · WR5% model · 5% market+2001at build
- 26Jelani WoodsNYJ · TE5% model · 3% market+3900at build
- 27Ben VanSumerenKC · RB5% model · 3% market+2799at build
- 28Andrew BeckNYJ · FBlimited data5% model · 2% market+4102at build
- 29Jeremy RuckertNYJ · TE5% model · 6% market+1651at build
- 30Malik McClainNYJ · WRlimited data2% model · 2% market+4102at build
- 31Minkah FitzpatrickNYJ · FSlimited data1% model · 1% market+11948at build
- 32Nohl WilliamsKC · CBlimited data1% model · 2% market+4508at build
- 33Azareye'h ThomasNYJ · CBlimited data1% model · 1% market+9900at build
- 34Brandon StephensNYJ · CBlimited data1% model · 1% market+12887at build
- 35Dane BeltonNYJ · SAFlimited data1% model · 2% market+5395at build
- 36Chamarri ConnerKC · DBlimited data1% model · 1% market+6893at build
- 37Demario DavisNYJ · OLBlimited data1% model · 1% market+12887at build
- 38Drue TranquillKC · LBlimited data0% model · 1% market+7419at build
- 39Nick BoltonKC · LBlimited data0% model · 1% market+12887at build
- 40Jamien SherwoodNYJ · LBlimited data0% model · 1% market+13985at build
- 41David BaileyNYJ · LBlimited data0% model · 0% market+29312at build
- 42Kingsley EnagbareNYJ · LBlimited data0% model · 0% market+30203at build
- 43Will McDonald IVNYJ · DElimited data0% model · 0% market+30203at build
- 44Jowon BriggsNYJ · DElimited data0% model · 0% market+49900at build
First TD scorer market (30)
Ranked by market price. Our model covers anytime TD only, so the model column shows each player's anytime TD probability for context.
- 1Kenneth Walker IIIKC · RBATD 60.3%+270at build
- 2Rashee RiceKC · WRATD 38.2%+700at build
- 3Travis KelceKC · TEATD 35.5%+760at build
- 4Breece HallNYJ · RBATD 31.4%+820at build
- 5Xavier WorthyKC · WRATD 27.1%+1000at build
- 6Adonai MitchellNYJ · WRATD 21.2%+1399at build
- 7Braelon AllenNYJ · RBATD 43.5%+1450at build
- 8Garrett WilsonNYJ · WRATD 32.8%+1500stale
- 9Cyrus AllenKC · WRATD 13.2%+1849at build
- 10Noah GrayKC · TEATD 17.8%+1849at build
- 11Omar Cooper Jr.NYJ · WRATD 23.8%+1900at build
- 12Emmett JohnsonKC · RBATD 23.1%+2001at build
- 13Patrick MahomesKC · QBATD 16.5%+2001at build
- 14Mason TaylorNYJ · TEATD 15.4%+2199at build
- 15Kenyon SadiqNYJ · TEATD 13.0%+2603at build
- 16Isaiah WilliamsNYJ · WRATD 8.1%+3301at build
- 17Jalen RoyalsKC · WRATD 13.2%+3900at build
- 18Tim PatrickNYJ · WRATD 9.8%+3900at build
- 19Andrew ArmstrongKC · WRATD 12.3%+4900at build
- 20Geno SmithNYJ · QBATD 7.9%+6394at build
- 21Jake BriningstoolKC · TEATD 8.1%+7900at build
- 22Jared WileyKC · TEATD 9.3%+7900at build
- 23Jaydn OttKC · RBATD 10.3%+7900at build
- 24Jeremy RuckertNYJ · TEATD 4.8%+7900at build
- 25Andrew BeckNYJ · FBATD 5.1%+9900at build
- 26Ben VanSumerenKC · RBATD 5.1%+9900at build
- 27Isaiah DavisNYJ · RBATD 7.0%+9900at build
- 28Jelani WoodsNYJ · TEATD 5.2%+9900at build
- 29Malik McClainNYJ · WRATD 2.4%+9900at build
- 30Nikko RemigioKC · WRATD 5.2%+9900at build
Detroit Lions @ Miami Dolphins
Sun 1:00 PM ETWhere the model sees valuemodel probability vs market-implied, by edge
- Malik WillisDylan's pickMIA · QB38% model · 31% market+6.9pts+225at build
- Sam LaPortaDylan's pickDET · TE40% model · 34% market+5.3pts+192at build
- Tyler ConklinDET · TE11% model · 5% market+5.2pts+1748at build
- Kevin Coleman Jr.MIA · WR14% model · 10% market+4.1pts+880at build
- Caleb DouglasMIA · WR30% model · 27% market+2.2pts+265at build
- Jameson WilliamsDET · WR38% model · 35% market+2.0pts+182at build
Jahmyr Gibbs is the model's most likely scorer (60.8%) — but not a pick at today's price: the market is asking more than our number. Good pick, wrong price. Value opens at -155 or better.
Full model board · all 44 players (ranked by Model TD%)
#PlayerModel vs marketOdds
- 1Jahmyr Gibbsmodel's #1DET · RBoverpriced — value at -155 or better61% model · 78% market-357at build
- 2Ollie Gordon IIMIA · RBoverpriced — value at +129 or better44% model · 46% market+116at build
- 3Amon-Ra St. BrownDET · WRoverpriced — value at +145 or better41% model · 51% market-105at build
- 4Sam LaPortaDylan's pickDET · TE40% model · 34% market+192at build
- 5Malik WillisDylan's pickMIA · QB38% model · 31% market+225at build
- 6Jameson WilliamsDET · WR38% model · 35% market+182at build
- 7Caleb DouglasMIA · WR30% model · 27% market+265at build
- 8Malik WashingtonMIA · WR29% model · 30% market+230at build
- 9Greg DulcichMIA · TE20% model · 23% market+330at build
- 10Chris BellMIA · WR18% model · 18% market+450at build
- 11Isaac TeSlaaDET · WR15% model · 22% market+360at build
- 12Sione VakiDET · RB14% model · 17% market+500at build
- 13Kevin Coleman Jr.MIA · WR14% model · 10% market+880at build
- 14Jaylen WrightMIA · RB12% model · 12% market+720at build
- 15Tyler ConklinDET · TE11% model · 5% market+1748at build
- 16Brock WrightDET · TE10% model · 11% market+800at build
- 17Jared GoffDET · QB10% model · 9% market+1049at build
- 18DJ HermanMIA · RBlimited data9% model · 6% market+1699at build
- 19Will KacmarekMIA · TE8% model · 7% market+1349at build
- 20Kaytron AllenMIA · RB8% model · 6% market+1550at build
- 21Jalen TolbertMIA · WR7% model · 3% market+2799at build
- 22Tay MartinDET · WR7% model · 2% market+4305at build
- 23Jacob SaylorsDET · RB7% model · 4% market+2400at build
- 24Jackson MeeksDET · TElimited data6% model · 5% market+1748at build
- 25Seydou TraoreMIA · TElimited data6% model · 3% market+2799at build
- 26Jared WayneMIA · WR5% model · 3% market+2799at build
- 27DeAndre CarterDET · WR4% model · 7% market+1349at build
- 28Roger McCrearyDET · CBlimited data1% model · 2% market+5888at build
- 29Chris JohnsonMIA · CBlimited data1% model · 1% market+9424at build
- 30Chuck ClarkDET · SAFlimited data1% model · 2% market+5395at build
- 31Dante Trader Jr.MIA · SAFlimited data1% model · 2% market+6394at build
- 32Michael TaaffeMIA · SAFlimited data1% model · 1% market+7900at build
- 33JuJu BrentsMIA · UNKlimited data1% model · 1% market+13985at build
- 34Derrick BarnesDET · LBlimited data0% model · 1% market+7900at build
- 35Jordyn BrooksMIA · LBlimited data0% model · 1% market+8375at build
- 36Jacob RodriguezMIA · LBlimited data0% model · 1% market+14825at build
- 37Aidan HutchinsonDET · DElimited data0% model · 0% market+30203at build
- 38Zach SielerMIA · DElimited data0% model · 0% market+30203at build
- 39Chop RobinsonMIA · LBlimited data0% model · 0% market+49900at build
- 40Joshua UcheMIA · LBlimited data0% model · 0% market+49900at build
- 41Tyler LacyDET · DElimited data0% model · 0% market+49900at build
- 42Alim McNeillDET · DTlimited data0% model · 0% market+30203at build
- 43Jordan PhillipsMIA · DTlimited data0% model · 0% market+49900at build
- 44Tyleik WilliamsDET · DTlimited data0% model · 0% market+49900at build
First TD scorer market (27)
Ranked by market price. Our model covers anytime TD only, so the model column shows each player's anytime TD probability for context.
- 1Jahmyr GibbsDET · RBATD 60.8%+210at build
- 2Amon-Ra St. BrownDET · WRATD 40.8%+490at build
- 3Ollie Gordon IIMIA · RBATD 43.6%+560at build
- 4Jameson WilliamsDET · WRATD 37.5%+820at build
- 5Sam LaPortaDET · TEATD 39.5%+900at build
- 6Malik WashingtonMIA · WRATD 28.6%+1349at build
- 7Malik WillisMIA · QBATD 37.7%+1500at build
- 8Caleb DouglasMIA · WRATD 29.6%+1651at build
- 9Sione VakiDET · RBATD 14.4%+1748at build
- 10Greg DulcichMIA · TEATD 19.9%+1900at build
- 11Isaac TeSlaaDET · WRATD 14.8%+2001at build
- 12Chris BellMIA · WRATD 17.9%+2603at build
- 13Jaylen WrightMIA · RBATD 12.2%+3105at build
- 14Tyler ConklinDET · TEATD 10.6%+3702at build
- 15Brock WrightDET · TEATD 10.1%+3900at build
- 16Kevin Coleman Jr.MIA · WRATD 14.3%+5888at build
- 17Jared GoffDET · QBATD 9.5%+6394at build
- 18DeAndre CarterDET · WRATD 4.4%+7419at build
- 19Kaytron AllenMIA · RBATD 8.0%+7419at build
- 20DJ HermanMIA · RBATD 9.0%+7900at build
- 21Will KacmarekMIA · TEATD 8.4%+7900at build
- 22Jackson MeeksDET · TEATD 5.8%+9900at build
- 23Jacob SaylorsDET · RBATD 6.5%+9900at build
- 24Jalen TolbertMIA · WRATD 7.0%+9900at build
- 25Jared WayneMIA · WRATD 5.3%+9900at build
- 26Seydou TraoreMIA · TEATD 5.8%+9900at build
- 27Tay MartinDET · WRATD 7.0%+9900at build
Cleveland Browns @ New Orleans Saints
Sun 1:00 PM ETWhere the model sees valuemodel probability vs market-implied, by edge
- Dylan SampsonCLE · RB21% model · 16% market+4.6pts+520at build
- Chris OlaveDylan's pickmodel's #1NO · WR39% model · 35% market+4.2pts+186at build
- Tyler ShoughNO · QB24% model · 21% market+3.4pts+380at build
- Alvin KamaraNO · RB28% model · 26% market+2.9pts+290at build
- Harold Fannin Jr.CLE · TE32% model · 29% market+2.5pts+245at build
- Bryce LanceNO · WR19% model · 17% market+1.8pts+500at build
- Devaughn VeleNO · WR31% model · 30% market+1.5pts+235at build
Full model board · all 50 players (ranked by Model TD%)
#PlayerModel vs marketOdds
- 1Chris OlaveDylan's pickmodel's #1NO · WR39% model · 35% market+186at build
- 2Quinshon JudkinsCLE · RBoverpriced — value at +205 or better33% model · 44% market+126at build
- 3Harold Fannin Jr.CLE · TE32% model · 29% market+245at build
- 4Devaughn VeleNO · WR31% model · 30% market+235at build
- 5Denzel BostonCLE · WR30% model · 30% market+235at build
- 6Alvin KamaraNO · RB28% model · 26% market+290at build
- 7Tyler ShoughNO · QB24% model · 21% market+380at build
- 8Kendre MillerNO · RB24% model · 36% market+178at build
- 9Juwan JohnsonNO · TE22% model · 25% market+295at build
- 10Dylan SampsonCLE · RB21% model · 16% market+520at build
- 11Bryce LanceNO · WR19% model · 17% market+500at build
- 12Deshaun WatsonCLE · QB15% model · 27% market+275stale
- 13Jerry JeudyCLE · WR15% model · 17% market+490at build
- 14Noah FantNO · TE14% model · 14% market+600at build
- 15Jordyn TysonNO · WRlimited data10% model · 30% market+235at build
- 16CJ DonaldsonNO · RB10% model · 14% market+640at build
- 17Oscar DelpNO · TE8% model · 8% market+1150at build
- 18Barion BrownNO · WR7% model · 6% market+1601at build
- 19Blake WhiteheartCLE · TE7% model · 13% market+680at build
- 20Isaiah BondCLE · WR7% model · 3% market+2799at build
- 21Shedeur SandersCLE · QB6% model · 15% market+560at build
- 22Jaleel McLaughlinCLE · RB6% model · 4% market+2298at build
- 23Michael BurtonCLE · FBlimited data5% model · 2% market+4708at build
- 24Tylan WallaceCLE · WR5% model · 3% market+3105at build
- 25Malachi CorleyCLE · WR4% model · 3% market+3105at build
- 26Treyton WelchNO · TElimited data4% model · 8% market+1150at build
- 27Tyson CampbellCLE · CBlimited data1% model · 2% market+5888at build
- 28Kool-Aid McKinstryNO · CBlimited data1% model · 1% market+6893at build
- 29Denzel WardCLE · CBlimited data1% model · 1% market+7900at build
- 30Justin ReidNO · Slimited data1% model · 1% market+7900at build
- 31Jonas SankerNO · SAFlimited data1% model · 2% market+5395at build
- 32Julian BlackmonNO · SAFlimited data1% model · 2% market+6394at build
- 33Grant DelpitCLE · SAFlimited data1% model · 1% market+7419at build
- 34Ronnie Hickman Jr.CLE · SAFlimited data1% model · 1% market+7900at build
- 35Carson SchwesingerCLE · LBlimited data0% model · 2% market+4508at build
- 36Pete WernerNO · LBlimited data0% model · 2% market+4900at build
- 37Quincy WilliamsCLE · LBlimited data0% model · 1% market+8375at build
- 38Kaden EllissNO · LBlimited data0% model · 1% market+9900at build
- 39Chase YoungNO · DElimited data0% model · 0% market+23156at build
- 40Colby WoodenNO · DElimited data0% model · 0% market+24900at build
- 41Carl GrandersonNO · DElimited data0% model · 0% market+26216at build
- 42Jared VerseCLE · DElimited data0% model · 0% market+30203at build
- 43Adin HuntingtonCLE · DElimited data0% model · 0% market+49900stale
- 44Cameron JordanNO · LBlimited data0% model · 0% market+49900at build
- 45Derek BarnettCLE · DElimited data0% model · 0% market+49900at build
- 46Isaiah McGuireCLE · DElimited data0% model · 0% market+49900at build
- 47Sam WilliamsCLE · DElimited data0% model · 0% market+49900at build
- 48Maliek CollinsCLE · DTlimited data0% model · 0% market+30203stale
- 49Mason GrahamCLE · DTlimited data0% model · 0% market+49900at build
- 50Mike Hall Jr.CLE · DTlimited data0% model · 0% market+49900at build
First TD scorer market (26)
Ranked by market price. Our model covers anytime TD only, so the model column shows each player's anytime TD probability for context.
- 1Quinshon JudkinsCLE · RBATD 32.8%+460at build
- 2Kendre MillerNO · RBATD 23.6%+660at build
- 3Chris OlaveNO · WRATD 39.2%+780at build
- 4Denzel BostonCLE · WRATD 29.9%+1100at build
- 5Devaughn VeleNO · WRATD 31.4%+1100at build
- 6Jordyn TysonNO · WRATD 10.3%+1100stale
- 7Alvin KamaraNO · RBATD 28.5%+1150at build
- 8Harold Fannin Jr.CLE · TEATD 31.5%+1200at build
- 9Deshaun WatsonCLE · QBATD 15.4%+1250stale
- 10Juwan JohnsonNO · TEATD 21.7%+1250at build
- 11Dylan SampsonCLE · RBATD 20.7%+1748at build
- 12Tyler ShoughNO · QBATD 24.2%+1801at build
- 13Bryce LanceNO · WRATD 18.5%+2199at build
- 14Jerry JeudyCLE · WRATD 14.9%+2199at build
- 15Blake WhiteheartCLE · TEATD 7.0%+2497at build
- 16Noah FantNO · TEATD 13.8%+2497at build
- 17Shedeur SandersCLE · QBATD 6.3%+2497at build
- 18CJ DonaldsonNO · RBATD 9.7%+3301at build
- 19Jaleel McLaughlinCLE · RBATD 5.8%+4900at build
- 20Oscar DelpNO · TEATD 7.7%+4900at build
- 21Treyton WelchNO · TEATD 3.8%+4900stale
- 22Barion BrownNO · WRATD 7.1%+5395at build
- 23Isaiah BondCLE · WRATD 6.6%+7900at build
- 24Malachi CorleyCLE · WRATD 4.3%+9900at build
- 25Michael BurtonCLE · FBATD 5.1%+9900at build
- 26Tylan WallaceCLE · WRATD 4.7%+9900at build
New York Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles
Sun 1:00 PM ETWhere the model sees valuemodel probability vs market-implied, by edge
- Darius CooperPHI · WR19% model · 15% market+3.8pts+560at build
- Malachi FieldsNYG · WR18% model · 17% market+1.1pts+490at build
Cam Skattebo is the model's most likely scorer (40.3%) — but not a pick at today's price: the market is asking more than our number. Good pick, wrong price. Value opens at +148 or better.
Full model board · all 52 players (ranked by Model TD%)
#PlayerModel vs marketOdds
- 1Cam Skattebomodel's #1NYG · RBoverpriced — value at +148 or better40% model · 54% market-116at build
- 2Malik NabersNYG · WRoverpriced — value at +224 or better31% model · 34% market+198at build
- 3Saquon BarkleyPHI · RBoverpriced — value at +236 or better30% model · 43% market+134at build
- 4Isaiah LikelyNYG · TEoverpriced — value at +264 or better28% model · 29% market+240at build
- 5DeVonta SmithPHI · WRoverpriced — value at +374 or better21% model · 34% market+190stale
- 6Dallas GoedertPHI · TE21% model · 26% market+290at build
- 7Makai LemonPHI · WR20% model · 22% market+350at build
- 8Darius CooperPHI · WR19% model · 15% market+560at build
- 9Elijah MitchellPHI · RB18% model · 19% market+420at build
- 10Malachi FieldsNYG · WR18% model · 17% market+490at build
- 11Devin SingletaryNYG · RB16% model · 46% market+118at build
- 12Phil MafahNYG · RBlimited data14% model · 17% market+500at build
- 13J.J. McCarthyNYG · QB14% model · 22% market+350at build
- 14Darnell MooneyNYG · WR11% model · 13% market+680at build
- 15Dontayvion WicksPHI · WR11% model · 24% market+320stale
- 16Theo JohnsonNYG · TE10% model · 12% market+740at build
- 17Jaydon BluePHI · RB10% model · 5% market+2098at build
- 18Joe Milton IIIPHI · QB9% model · 19% market+420at build
- 19Tanner McKeePHI · QB9% model · 9% market+1000stale
- 20Grant CalcaterraPHI · TE7% model · 3% market+2799at build
- 21Eli StowersPHI · TElimited data6% model · 6% market+1550at build
- 22Patrick RicardNYG · RB5% model · 3% market+3497at build
- 23Thomas Fidone IINYG · TElimited data5% model · 5% market+1801at build
- 24Elijah MoorePHI · WR4% model · 5% market+1900at build
- 25Charlie JonesNYG · WR3% model · 5% market+2001at build
- 26Johnny MundtPHI · TE3% model · 4% market+2298at build
- 27Chris ManhertzNYG · TE3% model · 5% market+2098at build
- 28Britain CoveyPHI · WR2% model · 6% market+1500at build
- 29Quinyon MitchellPHI · CBlimited data1% model · 2% market+4305at build
- 30Paulson AdeboNYG · CBlimited data1% model · 2% market+4708at build
- 31Deonte BanksNYG · CBlimited data1% model · 2% market+5888at build
- 32Cooper DeJeanPHI · CBlimited data1% model · 2% market+6394at build
- 33Greg Newsome IINYG · CBlimited data1% model · 1% market+6893at build
- 34Riq WoolenPHI · CBlimited data1% model · 1% market+7419at build
- 35Jevon HollandNYG · SAFlimited data1% model · 3% market+3702at build
- 36Andrew MukubaPHI · SAFlimited data1% model · 1% market+6893at build
- 37Hollywood BrownPHI · UNKlimited data1% model · 13% market+700at build
- 38Arvell ReeseNYG · LBlimited data0% model · 3% market+3900at build
- 39Jeremiah Trotter Jr.PHI · LBlimited data0% model · 1% market+7900at build
- 40Zack BaunPHI · LBlimited data0% model · 1% market+7900at build
- 41Micah McFaddenNYG · LBlimited data0% model · 1% market+9900at build
- 42Kayvon ThibodeauxNYG · LBlimited data0% model · 1% market+13985at build
- 43Jalyx HuntPHI · LBlimited data0% model · 0% market+26216at build
- 44Abdul CarterNYG · LBlimited data0% model · 0% market+26927at build
- 45Arnold EbiketiePHI · LBlimited data0% model · 0% market+30203at build
- 46Nolan SmithPHI · LBlimited data0% model · 0% market+30203at build
- 47Shelby HarrisNYG · DElimited data0% model · 0% market+30203at build
- 48Jonathan GreenardPHI · LBlimited data0% model · 0% market+49900at build
- 49DJ ReaderNYG · DTlimited data0% model · 0% market+24900at build
- 50Jalen CarterPHI · DTlimited data0% model · 0% market+30203at build
- 51Jordan DavisPHI · DTlimited data0% model · 0% market+30203at build
- 52Moro OjomoPHI · DTlimited data0% model · 0% market+30203at build
First TD scorer market (29)
Ranked by market price. Our model covers anytime TD only, so the model column shows each player's anytime TD probability for context.
- 1Devin SingletaryNYG · RBATD 15.5%+420at build
- 2Cam SkatteboNYG · RBATD 40.3%+500stale
- 3Saquon BarkleyPHI · RBATD 29.8%+500at build
- 4Malik NabersNYG · WRATD 30.9%+660at build
- 5Isaiah LikelyNYG · TEATD 27.5%+880at build
- 6DeVonta SmithPHI · WRATD 21.1%+900stale
- 7Dallas GoedertPHI · TEATD 21.0%+1250at build
- 8Joe Milton IIIPHI · QBATD 8.5%+1349at build
- 9Makai LemonPHI · WRATD 20.0%+1349at build
- 10J.J. McCarthyNYG · QBATD 13.8%+1500at build
- 11Darius CooperPHI · WRATD 19.0%+1601at build
- 12Dontayvion WicksPHI · WRATD 11.2%+1651stale
- 13Malachi FieldsNYG · WRATD 18.0%+1748at build
- 14Elijah MitchellPHI · RBATD 18.3%+1801at build
- 15Phil MafahNYG · RBATD 14.2%+1900at build
- 16Darnell MooneyNYG · WRATD 11.4%+2799at build
- 17Hollywood BrownPHI · UNKATD 0.5%+2799at build
- 18Theo JohnsonNYG · TEATD 10.2%+2799at build
- 19Tanner McKeePHI · QBATD 8.5%+3900stale
- 20Elijah MoorePHI · WRATD 3.7%+4102at build
- 21Charlie JonesNYG · WRATD 3.4%+4508at build
- 22Eli StowersPHI · TEATD 6.4%+5888at build
- 23Britain CoveyPHI · WRATD 1.5%+6394at build
- 24Jaydon BluePHI · RBATD 9.5%+6394at build
- 25Patrick RicardNYG · RBATD 5.3%+7419at build
- 26Johnny MundtPHI · TEATD 2.9%+7900at build
- 27Chris ManhertzNYG · TEATD 2.5%+9900at build
- 28Grant CalcaterraPHI · TEATD 7.1%+9900at build
- 29Thomas Fidone IINYG · TEATD 4.6%+9900stale
Los Angeles Rams @ Washington Commanders
Sun 1:00 PM ETWhere the model sees valuemodel probability vs market-implied, by edge
- Max KlareLAR · TElimited data11% model · 6% market+5.8pts+1699stale
- CJ DanielsLAR · WRlimited data12% model · 7% market+4.7pts+1349stale
- Jayden DanielsWSH · QB31% model · 29% market+2.0pts+250stale
- Tyler HigbeeLAR · TE28% model · 27% market+1.1pts+275stale
Full model board · all 43 players (ranked by Model TD%)
#PlayerModel vs marketOdds
- 1Kyren WilliamsDylan's pickmodel's #1LAR · RB54% model · 58% market-137stale
- 2Puka NacuaDylan's pickLAR · WR45% model · 52% market-110stale
- 3Blake CorumLAR · RBoverpriced — value at +171 or better37% model · 45% market+120stale
- 4Jayden DanielsWSH · QB31% model · 29% market+250stale
- 5Stefon DiggsWSH · WRoverpriced — value at +247 or better29% model · 32% market+210stale
- 6Tyler HigbeeLAR · TE28% model · 27% market+275stale
- 7Rachaad WhiteWSH · RB25% model · 40% market+150stale
- 8Antonio WilliamsWSH · WR22% model · 27% market+265stale
- 9Chig OkonkwoWSH · TE22% model · 25% market+300stale
- 10Colby ParkinsonLAR · TE21% model · 27% market+275stale
- 11Austin EkelerWSH · RB20% model · 22% market+350stale
- 12Treylon BurksWSH · WR20% model · 20% market+390stale
- 13Davis AllenLAR · TE17% model · 22% market+360stale
- 14Konata MumpfieldLAR · WR15% model · 16% market+520stale
- 15Terrance FergusonLAR · TE13% model · 29% market+250stale
- 16Tutu AtwellLAR · WR12% model · 11% market+820stale
- 17CJ DanielsLAR · WRlimited data12% model · 7% market+1349stale
- 18Max KlareLAR · TElimited data11% model · 6% market+1699stale
- 19Jeremy McNicholsWSH · RB11% model · 21% market+370stale
- 20Van JeffersonWSH · WR9% model · 12% market+720stale
- 21John BatesWSH · TE9% model · 7% market+1250stale
- 22Dyami BrownWSH · WR8% model · 14% market+600stale
- 23Matthew StaffordLAR · QB8% model · 6% market+1651stale
- 24Luke McCaffreyWSH · WR7% model · 11% market+840stale
- 25Ben SinnottWSH · TE6% model · 4% market+2298stale
- 26Jordan WhittingtonLAR · WR6% model · 8% market+1150stale
- 27Dean ConnorsLAR · RBlimited data5% model · 7% market+1399stale
- 28Colson YankoffWSH · TE5% model · 4% market+2701stale
- 29Amik RobertsonWSH · CBlimited data1% model · 2% market+5888stale
- 30Trent McDuffieLAR · CBlimited data1% model · 1% market+9900stale
- 31Quentin LakeLAR · SAFlimited data1% model · 2% market+5395stale
- 32Jeremy ReavesWSH · DBlimited data1% model · 2% market+6394stale
- 33Kamren KinchensLAR · SAFlimited data1% model · 1% market+7419stale
- 34Kam CurlLAR · SAFlimited data1% model · 1% market+8375stale
- 35Nick CrossWSH · SAFlimited data1% model · 1% market+9900stale
- 36Sonny StylesWSH · LBlimited data0% model · 1% market+9900stale
- 37Byron YoungLAR · LBlimited data0% model · 1% market+13985stale
- 38Nate LandmanLAR · LBlimited data0% model · 1% market+13985stale
- 39Frankie LuvuWSH · LBlimited data0% model · 1% market+19900stale
- 40Omar SpeightsLAR · LBlimited data0% model · 0% market+22122stale
- 41Aaron DonaldLAR · DElimited data0% model · 0% market+30203stale
- 42Josaiah StewartLAR · LBlimited data0% model · 0% market+30203stale
- 43Myles GarrettLAR · LBlimited data0% model · 0% market+49900stale
First TD scorer market (28)
Ranked by market price. Our model covers anytime TD only, so the model column shows each player's anytime TD probability for context.
- 1Kyren WilliamsLAR · RBATD 54.4%+390at build
- 2Puka NacuaLAR · WRATD 45.4%+420at build
- 3Blake CorumLAR · RBATD 36.9%+620at build
- 4Rachaad WhiteWSH · RBATD 24.7%+680at build
- 5Jayden DanielsWSH · QBATD 30.6%+1100at build
- 6Stefon DiggsWSH · WRATD 28.8%+1150at build
- 7Terrance FergusonLAR · TEATD 12.7%+1349stale
- 8Tyler HigbeeLAR · TEATD 27.8%+1399at build
- 9Austin EkelerWSH · RBATD 20.0%+1450at build
- 10Chig OkonkwoWSH · TEATD 21.8%+1450at build
- 11Antonio WilliamsWSH · WRATD 22.4%+1500at build
- 12Colby ParkinsonLAR · TEATD 20.5%+1550at build
- 13Davis AllenLAR · TEATD 16.8%+1801at build
- 14Treylon BurksWSH · WRATD 19.9%+1849stale
- 15Jeremy McNicholsWSH · RBATD 10.6%+2199at build
- 16Konata MumpfieldLAR · WRATD 14.7%+2199at build
- 17Tutu AtwellLAR · WRATD 11.6%+2903at build
- 18Dyami BrownWSH · WRATD 7.9%+3702stale
- 19Van JeffersonWSH · WRATD 9.1%+3702at build
- 20Luke McCaffreyWSH · WRATD 6.7%+3900at build
- 21John BatesWSH · TEATD 8.7%+5888at build
- 22Dean ConnorsLAR · RBATD 5.0%+6394at build
- 23Jordan WhittingtonLAR · WRATD 5.7%+6394at build
- 24Matthew StaffordLAR · QBATD 7.7%+7419at build
- 25Ben SinnottWSH · TEATD 6.0%+7900at build
- 26CJ DanielsLAR · WRATD 11.6%+7900at build
- 27Max KlareLAR · TEATD 11.4%+7900at build
- 28Colson YankoffWSH · TEATD 4.5%+9900at build
Denver Broncos @ Carolina Panthers
Sun 1:00 PM ETWhere the model sees valuemodel probability vs market-implied, by edge
- Ja'Tavion SandersCAR · TE11% model · 3% market+7.0pts+2799at build
- Adam TrautmanDEN · TE12% model · 6% market+6.2pts+1550at build
- Dallen BentleyDEN · TElimited data10% model · 5% market+4.8pts+1748at build
- Troy FranklinDEN · WR15% model · 11% market+3.9pts+820at build
- John Metchie IIICAR · WR13% model · 11% market+1.8pts+820at build
- Nate AdkinsDEN · TE13% model · 11% market+1.4pts+800at build
- Bo NixDEN · QB19% model · 18% market+1.3pts+460at build
- J.K. DobbinsDEN · RB27% model · 26% market+1.1pts+285at build
Chuba Hubbard is the model's most likely scorer (49.4%) — but not a pick at today's price: the market is asking more than our number. Good pick, wrong price. Value opens at +102 or better.
Full model board · all 42 players (ranked by Model TD%)
#PlayerModel vs marketOdds
- 1Chuba Hubbardmodel's #1CAR · RBoverpriced — value at +102 or better49% model · 52% market-109at build
- 2Jonah ColemanDEN · RBoverpriced — value at +170 or better37% model · 46% market+116at build
- 3Tetairoa McMillanCAR · WRoverpriced — value at +190 or better35% model · 36% market+178at build
- 4Jalen CokerCAR · WRoverpriced — value at +253 or better28% model · 31% market+220at build
- 5J.K. DobbinsDEN · RB27% model · 26% market+285at build
- 6Courtland SuttonDEN · WR24% model · 31% market+220at build
- 7Jaylen WaddleDEN · WR22% model · 33% market+200at build
- 8Darren WallerCAR · TE20% model · 20% market+410at build
- 9Bo NixDEN · QB19% model · 18% market+460at build
- 10Troy FranklinDEN · WR15% model · 11% market+820at build
- 11Tommy TrembleCAR · TE14% model · 18% market+450at build
- 12John Metchie IIICAR · WR13% model · 11% market+820at build
- 13Evan EngramDEN · TE13% model · 18% market+460at build
- 14Nate AdkinsDEN · TE13% model · 11% market+800at build
- 15Adam TrautmanDEN · TE12% model · 6% market+1550at build
- 16Bryce YoungCAR · QB11% model · 14% market+620at build
- 17Pat BryantDEN · WR11% model · 17% market+490at build
- 18Ja'Tavion SandersCAR · TE11% model · 3% market+2799at build
- 19Dallen BentleyDEN · TElimited data10% model · 5% market+1748at build
- 20Marvin Mims Jr.DEN · WR9% model · 10% market+860at build
- 21Lil'Jordan HumphreyDEN · WR9% model · 6% market+1550at build
- 22Cody SchraderDEN · RBlimited data8% model · 6% market+1651stale
- 23Mitchell EvansCAR · TE8% model · 13% market+660at build
- 24Brycen TremayneCAR · WR7% model · 6% market+1699at build
- 25Anthony Tyus IIICAR · RB6% model · 4% market+2400at build
- 26David MooreCAR · WR5% model · 3% market+3702at build
- 27Trevor EtienneCAR · RB5% model · 6% market+1651at build
- 28Adam PrenticeDEN · FBlimited data5% model · 5% market+1748at build
- 29Feleipe FranksCAR · TE2% model · 2% market+4102at build
- 30Riley MossDEN · CBlimited data1% model · 2% market+5888at build
- 31Pat Surtain IIDEN · CBlimited data1% model · 1% market+7900at build
- 32Marco WilsonCAR · CBlimited data1% model · 1% market+8375at build
- 33Nick ScottCAR · SAFlimited data1% model · 1% market+8909at build
- 34Tre'von MoehrigCAR · SAFlimited data1% model · 1% market+8909at build
- 35Devin LloydCAR · LBlimited data0% model · 1% market+11948at build
- 36Alex SingletonDEN · LBlimited data0% model · 1% market+13985at build
- 37Justin StrnadDEN · LBlimited data0% model · 1% market+16849at build
- 38Nik BonittoDEN · LBlimited data0% model · 1% market+19900at build
- 39Zach AllenDEN · DElimited data0% model · 0% market+26927at build
- 40Jonathon CooperDEN · LBlimited data0% model · 0% market+30203at build
- 41Derrick BrownCAR · DTlimited data0% model · 0% market+26216at build
- 42D.J. JonesDEN · DTlimited data0% model · 0% market+49900at build
First TD scorer market (29)
Ranked by market price. Our model covers anytime TD only, so the model column shows each player's anytime TD probability for context.
- 1Chuba HubbardCAR · RBATD 49.4%+450at build
- 2Jonah ColemanDEN · RBATD 37.0%+500at build
- 3J.K. DobbinsDEN · RBATD 27.1%+840at build
- 4Tetairoa McMillanCAR · WRATD 34.5%+880at build
- 5Jaylen WaddleDEN · WRATD 21.6%+900at build
- 6Courtland SuttonDEN · WRATD 23.5%+950at build
- 7Jalen CokerCAR · WRATD 28.3%+950at build
- 8Darren WallerCAR · TEATD 19.6%+1748at build
- 9Bo NixDEN · QBATD 19.2%+1849at build
- 10Evan EngramDEN · TEATD 12.6%+1900at build
- 11Tommy TrembleCAR · TEATD 14.0%+2098at build
- 12Marvin Mims Jr.DEN · WRATD 9.4%+2298at build
- 13Pat BryantDEN · WRATD 10.7%+2400at build
- 14John Metchie IIICAR · WRATD 12.7%+2799at build
- 15Troy FranklinDEN · WRATD 14.8%+2799at build
- 16Trevor EtienneCAR · RBATD 5.2%+2903at build
- 17Bryce YoungCAR · QBATD 11.4%+3105at build
- 18Mitchell EvansCAR · TEATD 7.6%+3301at build
- 19Nate AdkinsDEN · TEATD 12.5%+3301at build
- 20Adam TrautmanDEN · TEATD 12.3%+3900at build
- 21Brycen TremayneCAR · WRATD 7.4%+5395at build
- 22Lil'Jordan HumphreyDEN · WRATD 8.7%+5888at build
- 23Adam PrenticeDEN · FBATD 5.1%+6893at build
- 24Dallen BentleyDEN · TEATD 10.2%+7419at build
- 25Cody SchraderDEN · RBATD 7.7%+7900stale
- 26Anthony Tyus IIICAR · RBATD 6.4%+9424at build
- 27David MooreCAR · WRATD 5.3%+9424at build
- 28Feleipe FranksCAR · TEATD 2.1%+9424at build
- 29Ja'Tavion SandersCAR · TEATD 10.5%+9900at build
Houston Texans @ Los Angeles Chargers
Sun 4:05 PM ETWhere the model sees valuemodel probability vs market-implied, by edge
- Tank DellHOU · WR19% model · 13% market+6.7pts+700at build
- Quentin JohnstonDylan's pickLAC · WR26% model · 20% market+5.5pts+400at build
- Xavier HutchinsonHOU · WR19% model · 16% market+3.3pts+540at build
- Kayshon BoutteHOU · WR14% model · 12% market+1.8pts+740at build
Woody Marks is the model's most likely scorer (41.0%) — but not a pick at today's price: the market is asking more than our number. Good pick, wrong price. Value opens at +144 or better.
Full model board · all 48 players (ranked by Model TD%)
#PlayerModel vs marketOdds
- 1Woody Marksmodel's #1HOU · RBoverpriced — value at +144 or better41% model · 49% market+104at build
- 2Nico CollinsHOU · WRoverpriced — value at +224 or better31% model · 40% market+150at build
- 3Quentin JohnstonDylan's pickLAC · WR26% model · 20% market+400at build
- 4Omarion HamptonLAC · RBoverpriced — value at +313 or better24% model · 30% market+235at build
- 5Ladd McConkeyLAC · WRoverpriced — value at +335 or better23% model · 25% market+300at build
- 6Dalton SchultzHOU · TE20% model · 29% market+240at build
- 7Tank DellHOU · WR19% model · 13% market+700at build
- 8Xavier HutchinsonHOU · WR19% model · 16% market+540at build
- 9David MontgomeryHOU · RB17% model · 57% market-135at build
- 10Kimani VidalLAC · RB16% model · 18% market+450at build
- 11C.J. StroudHOU · QB15% model · 17% market+500at build
- 12Tre HarrisLAC · WR14% model · 20% market+400at build
- 13Kayshon BoutteHOU · WR14% model · 12% market+740at build
- 14Justin HerbertLAC · QB13% model · 17% market+500at build
- 15Marvin Harrison Jr.HOU · WR13% model · 24% market+310at build
- 16Charlie KolarLAC · TE12% model · 16% market+540at build
- 17Keaton MitchellLAC · RB11% model · 14% market+600at build
- 18Oronde Gadsden IILAC · TE11% model · 16% market+540at build
- 19Foster MoreauHOU · TE10% model · 17% market+490at build
- 20Cade StoverHOU · TE8% model · 7% market+1301at build
- 21Scott MatlockLAC · RBlimited data7% model · 4% market+2497at build
- 22Brevin JordanHOU · TE6% model · 4% market+2497at build
- 23KeAndre Lambert-SmithLAC · WR6% model · 4% market+2199at build
- 24Dare OgunbowaleHOU · RB4% model · 11% market+840at build
- 25Hayden RucciLAC · TE4% model · 4% market+2701at build
- 26Derius DavisLAC · WR4% model · 4% market+2400at build
- 27Kamari LassiterHOU · CBlimited data1% model · 3% market+3105at build
- 28Derek Stingley Jr.HOU · CBlimited data1% model · 2% market+5395at build
- 29Cam HartLAC · CBlimited data1% model · 2% market+5888at build
- 30Tarheeb StillLAC · CBlimited data1% model · 1% market+8375at build
- 31Elijah MoldenLAC · CBlimited data1% model · 1% market+12887at build
- 32Tony JeffersonLAC · Slimited data1% model · 1% market+12887at build
- 33Calen BullockHOU · SAFlimited data1% model · 2% market+4900at build
- 34Jalen PitreHOU · SAFlimited data1% model · 2% market+4900at build
- 35Khalil MackLAC · OLBlimited data1% model · 1% market+13985at build
- 36Henry To'oTo'oHOU · LBlimited data0% model · 2% market+6394at build
- 37Azeez Al-ShaairHOU · LBlimited data0% model · 1% market+6893at build
- 38Tuli TuipulotuLAC · LBlimited data0% model · 1% market+9424at build
- 39Danielle HunterHOU · DElimited data0% model · 1% market+12887at build
- 40Daiyan HenleyLAC · LBlimited data0% model · 1% market+16029at build
- 41Will Anderson Jr.HOU · DElimited data0% model · 1% market+17757at build
- 42Akheem MesidorLAC · LBlimited data0% model · 1% market+19900at build
- 43Del'Shawn PhillipsLAC · LBlimited data0% model · 1% market+19900at build
- 44Jadeveon ClowneyHOU · DElimited data0% model · 0% market+30203at build
- 45Logan HallHOU · DElimited data0% model · 0% market+30203at build
- 46Tommy TogiaiHOU · DTlimited data0% model · 1% market+13985at build
- 47Sheldon RankinsHOU · DTlimited data0% model · 0% market+23710at build
- 48Kayden McDonaldHOU · DTlimited data0% model · 0% market+30203at build
First TD scorer market (26)
Ranked by market price. Our model covers anytime TD only, so the model column shows each player's anytime TD probability for context.
- 1David MontgomeryHOU · RBATD 16.6%+350at build
- 2Woody MarksHOU · RBATD 41.0%+450at build
- 3Nico CollinsHOU · WRATD 30.9%+580at build
- 4Omarion HamptonLAC · RBATD 24.2%+900at build
- 5Dalton SchultzHOU · TEATD 19.5%+1100at build
- 6Ladd McConkeyLAC · WRATD 23.0%+1349at build
- 7Marvin Harrison Jr.HOU · WRATD 13.0%+1399at build
- 8Xavier HutchinsonHOU · WRATD 18.9%+1550at build
- 9Kimani VidalLAC · RBATD 15.9%+1699at build
- 10Quentin JohnstonLAC · WRATD 25.5%+1801at build
- 11Keaton MitchellLAC · RBATD 11.3%+2001at build
- 12Tre HarrisLAC · WRATD 13.8%+2001at build
- 13Justin HerbertLAC · QBATD 13.2%+2098at build
- 14C.J. StroudHOU · QBATD 14.9%+2199at build
- 15Foster MoreauHOU · TEATD 10.4%+2199at build
- 16Tank DellHOU · WRATD 19.2%+2199at build
- 17Charlie KolarLAC · TEATD 11.7%+2497at build
- 18Dare OgunbowaleHOU · RBATD 3.7%+2497at build
- 19Oronde Gadsden IILAC · TEATD 10.8%+2497at build
- 20Kayshon BoutteHOU · WRATD 13.7%+2799at build
- 21Cade StoverHOU · TEATD 7.9%+5888at build
- 22Brevin JordanHOU · TEATD 5.6%+9900at build
- 23Derius DavisLAC · WRATD 3.5%+9900at build
- 24Hayden RucciLAC · TEATD 3.6%+9900at build
- 25KeAndre Lambert-SmithLAC · WRATD 5.5%+9900at build
- 26Scott MatlockLAC · RBATD 7.1%+9900at build
Green Bay Packers @ New England Patriots
Sun 4:25 PM ETWhere the model sees valuemodel probability vs market-implied, by edge
- Josh WhyleGB · TE13% model · 3% market+9.1pts+2799at build
- Drake MayeDylan's pickNE · QB27% model · 22% market+4.3pts+350at build
- Kyle WilliamsNE · WR23% model · 19% market+4.0pts+440at build
- Tucker KraftDylan's pickGB · TE31% model · 27% market+3.1pts+265at build
- MarShawn LloydGB · RB16% model · 14% market+1.4pts+600at build
Rhamondre Stevenson is the model's most likely scorer (45.2%) — but not a pick at today's price: the market is asking more than our number. Good pick, wrong price. Value opens at +121 or better.
Full model board · all 43 players (ranked by Model TD%)
#PlayerModel vs marketOdds
- 1Rhamondre Stevensonmodel's #1NE · RBoverpriced — value at +121 or better45% model · 51% market-103at build
- 2Josh JacobsGB · RBoverpriced — value at +128 or better44% model · 50% market+100at build
- 3Matthew GoldenGB · WRoverpriced — value at +204 or better33% model · 34% market+198at build
- 4Christian WatsonGB · WRoverpriced — value at +218 or better31% model · 34% market+192at build
- 5A.J. BrownNE · WRoverpriced — value at +227 or better31% model · 40% market+150stale
- 6Tucker KraftDylan's pickGB · TE31% model · 27% market+265at build
- 7Drake MayeDylan's pickNE · QB27% model · 22% market+350at build
- 8Eli RaridonNE · TE26% model · 32% market+215at build
- 9Kyle WilliamsNE · WR23% model · 19% market+440at build
- 10DeMario DouglasNE · WR22% model · 31% market+220at build
- 11TreVeyon HendersonNE · RB22% model · 28% market+255stale
- 12Efton Chism IIINE · WR21% model · 28% market+260at build
- 13Hunter HenryNE · TE16% model · 32% market+215at build
- 14MarShawn LloydGB · RB16% model · 14% market+600at build
- 15Corey KinerNE · RB14% model · 25% market+300at build
- 16Josh WhyleGB · TE13% model · 3% market+2799at build
- 17Mack HollinsNE · WR12% model · 24% market+320at build
- 18Savion WilliamsGB · WR11% model · 18% market+470at build
- 19Jordan LoveGB · QB10% model · 10% market+950at build
- 20Lan LarisonNE · RBlimited data9% model · 9% market+1049at build
- 21Tanner ArkinNE · TElimited data8% model · 5% market+1801at build
- 22Pierre StrongGB · RB8% model · 14% market+640at build
- 23Bo MeltonGB · WR7% model · 5% market+1801at build
- 24J. Michael SturdivantGB · WR7% model · 3% market+3702at build
- 25Jonnu SmithGB · TE5% model · 7% market+1250at build
- 26Mark RedmanGB · TElimited data5% model · 8% market+1150at build
- 27Ryan MillerNE · WR4% model · 6% market+1699at build
- 28Coleman OwenGB · WR4% model · 2% market+4102at build
- 29Cameron LatuNE · TE4% model · 5% market+1748at build
- 30Brandon CisseGB · CBlimited data1% model · 1% market+9900at build
- 31Evan WilliamsGB · SAFlimited data1% model · 2% market+4708at build
- 32Xavier McKinneyGB · SAFlimited data1% model · 1% market+7419at build
- 33Javon BullardGB · SAFlimited data1% model · 1% market+10889at build
- 34Isaiah McDuffieGB · LBlimited data0% model · 1% market+9900at build
- 35Brenton Cox Jr.GB · DElimited data0% model · 0% market+30203at build
- 36Dani Dennis-SuttonGB · LBlimited data0% model · 0% market+30203at build
- 37Barryn SorrellGB · DElimited data0% model · 0% market+49900at build
- 38Lukas Van NessGB · LBlimited data0% model · 0% market+49900at build
- 39Karl BrooksGB · DTlimited data0% model · 0% market+30203at build
- 40Anthony CampbellGB · DTlimited data0% model · 0% market+49900at build
- 41Chris McClellanGB · DTlimited data0% model · 0% market+49900at build
- 42Devonte WyattGB · DTlimited data0% model · 0% market+49900at build
- 43Jordon RileyGB · DTlimited data0% model · 0% market+49900at build
First TD scorer market (29)
Ranked by market price. Our model covers anytime TD only, so the model column shows each player's anytime TD probability for context.
- 1Rhamondre StevensonNE · RBATD 45.2%+440at build
- 2Josh JacobsGB · RBATD 43.8%+490at build
- 3A.J. BrownNE · WRATD 30.6%+840stale
- 4Christian WatsonGB · WRATD 31.4%+880at build
- 5Matthew GoldenGB · WRATD 32.9%+880at build
- 6DeMario DouglasNE · WRATD 22.2%+1049at build
- 7Eli RaridonNE · TEATD 25.6%+1049at build
- 8Hunter HenryNE · TEATD 15.9%+1049at build
- 9Efton Chism IIINE · WRATD 20.8%+1250at build
- 10Drake MayeNE · QBATD 26.5%+1349at build
- 11Tucker KraftGB · TEATD 30.5%+1349at build
- 12Corey KinerNE · RBATD 13.7%+1399at build
- 13TreVeyon HendersonNE · RBATD 21.6%+1399stale
- 14Mack HollinsNE · WRATD 11.7%+1601at build
- 15Kyle WilliamsNE · WRATD 22.5%+1849at build
- 16Savion WilliamsGB · WRATD 10.7%+1849at build
- 17MarShawn LloydGB · RBATD 15.7%+2701at build
- 18Pierre StrongGB · RBATD 8.2%+3497at build
- 19J. Michael SturdivantGB · WRATD 6.9%+3702at build
- 20Lan LarisonNE · RBATD 9.3%+4102at build
- 21Bo MeltonGB · WRATD 6.9%+4708at build
- 22Jonnu SmithGB · TEATD 5.4%+4708at build
- 23Jordan LoveGB · QBATD 10.0%+4708at build
- 24Mark RedmanGB · TEATD 4.8%+5395at build
- 25Cameron LatuNE · TEATD 3.8%+7419at build
- 26Ryan MillerNE · WRATD 4.1%+7419at build
- 27Coleman OwenGB · WRATD 4.0%+9424at build
- 28Tanner ArkinNE · TEATD 8.3%+9424at build
- 29Josh WhyleGB · TEATD 12.5%+9900at build
Las Vegas Raiders @ San Francisco 49ers
Sun 4:25 PM ETWhere the model sees valuemodel probability vs market-implied, by edge
- Jordan JamesSF · RB12% model · 7% market+5.4pts+1399at build
- Kirk CousinsLV · QB10% model · 5% market+5.0pts+1801at build
Christian McCaffrey is the model's most likely scorer (57.4%) — but not a pick at today's price: the market is asking more than our number. Good pick, wrong price. Value opens at -135 or better.
Full model board · all 41 players (ranked by Model TD%)
#PlayerModel vs marketOdds
- 1Christian McCaffreymodel's #1SF · RBoverpriced — value at -135 or better57% model · 75% market-303at build
- 2George KittleSF · TEoverpriced — value at +102 or better49% model · 57% market-132at build
- 3Brock BowersLV · TEoverpriced — value at +134 or better43% model · 47% market+114at build
- 4Ashton JeantyLV · RBoverpriced — value at +164 or better38% model · 38% market+160at build
- 5Kaelon BlackSF · RBoverpriced — value at +227 or better31% model · 33% market+205at build
- 6Mike EvansSF · WR30% model · 51% market-105stale
- 7Deebo Samuel Sr.SF · WR26% model · 51% market-105stale
- 8Tre TuckerLV · WR23% model · 24% market+310at build
- 9Mike Washington Jr.LV · RB22% model · 36% market+180at build
- 10Jordan WatkinsSF · WR21% model · 24% market+310at build
- 11Michael MayerLV · TE19% model · 21% market+370at build
- 12Christian KirkSF · WR19% model · 25% market+300at build
- 13Brandin CooksSF · WR18% model · 24% market+310at build
- 14Brock PurdySF · QB14% model · 23% market+330at build
- 15Jalen NailorLV · WR14% model · 17% market+500at build
- 16Jordan JamesSF · RB12% model · 7% market+1399at build
- 17Demarcus RobinsonSF · WR12% model · 32% market+210at build
- 18Luke FarrellSF · TE11% model · 11% market+840at build
- 19Jacob CowingSF · WR11% model · 18% market+470at build
- 20Kirk CousinsLV · QB10% model · 5% market+1801at build
- 21Jack BechLV · WR9% model · 13% market+700at build
- 22Dont'e Thornton Jr.LV · WR7% model · 7% market+1399at build
- 23Cody WhiteLV · WR6% model · 8% market+1100at build
- 24Kyle JuszczykSF · FBlimited data5% model · 17% market+500at build
- 25Connor HeywardLV · FBlimited data5% model · 7% market+1301at build
- 26Carter RunyonLV · TElimited data5% model · 7% market+1250stale
- 27Dylan LaubeLV · RB5% model · 7% market+1250at build
- 28Ian ThomasLV · TE4% model · 7% market+1301at build
- 29Brayden WillisSF · TE4% model · 5% market+1900at build
- 30Dareke YoungLV · WR4% model · 5% market+2001at build
- 31Malik BensonLV · WR3% model · 5% market+1900stale
- 32Renardo GreenSF · CBlimited data1% model · 2% market+4900at build
- 33Deommodore LenoirSF · CBlimited data1% model · 2% market+5395at build
- 34Eric StokesLV · CBlimited data1% model · 1% market+12887at build
- 35Ji'Ayir BrownSF · SAFlimited data1% model · 2% market+5395at build
- 36Jeremy ChinnLV · SAFlimited data1% model · 1% market+7900at build
- 37Treydan StukesLV · SAFlimited data1% model · 1% market+12887at build
- 38Fred WarnerSF · MLBlimited data1% model · 1% market+7419at build
- 39Nakobe DeanLV · LBlimited data0% model · 1% market+11948at build
- 40Quay WalkerLV · LBlimited data0% model · 1% market+11948at build
- 41Dre GreenlawSF · LBlimited data0% model · 1% market+12887at build
First TD scorer market (31)
Ranked by market price. Our model covers anytime TD only, so the model column shows each player's anytime TD probability for context.
- 1Christian McCaffreySF · RBATD 57.4%+260at build
- 2George KittleSF · TEATD 49.4%+500at build
- 3Deebo Samuel Sr.SF · WRATD 26.1%+620stale
- 4Mike EvansSF · WRATD 29.6%+620stale
- 5Ashton JeantyLV · RBATD 37.9%+900at build
- 6Brock BowersLV · TEATD 42.7%+900at build
- 7Demarcus RobinsonSF · WRATD 11.7%+1200at build
- 8Kaelon BlackSF · RBATD 30.6%+1200at build
- 9Mike Washington Jr.LV · RBATD 22.0%+1200at build
- 10Jordan WatkinsSF · WRATD 20.5%+1301at build
- 11Tre TuckerLV · WRATD 22.8%+1699at build
- 12Michael MayerLV · TEATD 19.0%+1748at build
- 13Brandin CooksSF · WRATD 17.5%+1801at build
- 14Brock PurdySF · QBATD 14.2%+2001at build
- 15Christian KirkSF · WRATD 18.7%+2001at build
- 16Jacob CowingSF · WRATD 10.8%+2098at build
- 17Kyle JuszczykSF · FBATD 5.1%+2603at build
- 18Jalen NailorLV · WRATD 13.8%+2903at build
- 19Jack BechLV · WRATD 8.8%+3900at build
- 20Luke FarrellSF · TEATD 11.0%+4102at build
- 21Cody WhiteLV · WRATD 5.8%+6394at build
- 22Dont'e Thornton Jr.LV · WRATD 6.6%+6893at build
- 23Dylan LaubeLV · RBATD 4.6%+6893at build
- 24Kirk CousinsLV · QBATD 10.3%+6893at build
- 25Carter RunyonLV · TEATD 4.6%+7900stale
- 26Connor HeywardLV · FBATD 5.1%+7900at build
- 27Ian ThomasLV · TEATD 4.4%+7900at build
- 28Jordan JamesSF · RBATD 12.1%+7900at build
- 29Brayden WillisSF · TEATD 4.4%+9900at build
- 30Dareke YoungLV · WRATD 4.1%+9900at build
- 31Malik BensonLV · WRATD 2.7%+9900stale
Arizona Cardinals @ Seattle Seahawks
Sun 4:25 PM ETDylan's best play · Anytime TD
Emanuel WilsonSEA · RB
32.2%our model
vs8.7%market implied
+23.5ptsmodel edge
+1049price at build
Our calibrated model gives Emanuel Wilson a 32.2% shot at the end zone, while the market is only pricing 8.7%. That gap is the play.
Where the model sees valuemodel probability vs market-implied, by edge
- Emanuel WilsonDylan's best playSEA · RB32% model · 9% market+23.5pts+1049at build
- George HolaniSEA · RB14% model · 9% market+5.6pts+1049at build
- Tory HortonSEA · WR21% model · 18% market+2.7pts+460at build
- Michael WilsonARI · WR27% model · 25% market+1.9pts+295at build
Jaxon Smith-Njigba is the model's most likely scorer (48.5%) — but not a pick at today's price: the market is asking more than our number. Good pick, wrong price. Value opens at +106 or better.
Full model board · all 45 players (ranked by Model TD%)
#PlayerModel vs marketOdds
- 1Jaxon Smith-Njigbamodel's #1SEA · WRoverpriced — value at +106 or better49% model · 51% market-103at build
- 2Zach CharbonnetSEA · RBoverpriced — value at +172 or better37% model · 41% market+146at build
- 3Emanuel WilsonDylan's best playSEA · RB32% model · 9% market+1049at build
- 4Trey McBrideARI · TEoverpriced — value at +233 or better30% model · 30% market+230at build
- 5Jadarian PriceSEA · RBoverpriced — value at +238 or better30% model · 35% market+186at build
- 6Michael WilsonARI · WR27% model · 25% market+295at build
- 7AJ BarnerSEA · TE26% model · 26% market+285at build
- 8Cooper KuppSEA · WR23% model · 23% market+340at build
- 9Tyler AllgeierARI · RB21% model · 36% market+178at build
- 10Tory HortonSEA · WR21% model · 18% market+460at build
- 11Jeremiyah LoveARI · RB18% model · 32% market+210stale
- 12George HolaniSEA · RB14% model · 9% market+1049at build
- 13Rashid ShaheedSEA · WR10% model · 22% market+350at build
- 14Sam DarnoldSEA · QB8% model · 14% market+640stale
- 15Reggie VirgilARI · WRlimited data8% model · 11% market+820at build
- 16Drew LockSEA · QB7% model · 16% market+540at build
- 17Brady RussellSEA · RB7% model · 3% market+2799at build
- 18Nick KallerupSEA · TE7% model · 3% market+3105at build
- 19Harrison Wallace IIIARI · WRlimited data6% model · 4% market+2497at build
- 20Elijah HigginsARI · TE5% model · 11% market+840at build
- 21Eric SaubertSEA · TE5% model · 8% market+1150at build
- 22Jerome FordARI · RB5% model · 7% market+1301at build
- 23Teagan QuitorianoARI · TE5% model · 4% market+2298at build
- 24Simi FehokoARI · WR4% model · 6% market+1651at build
- 25Evan HullARI · RB4% model · 10% market+900at build
- 26Gardner MinshewARI · QB4% model · 7% market+1349at build
- 27Devin DuvernayARI · WR4% model · 6% market+1651at build
- 28Montorie Foster JrSEA · WRlimited data3% model · 4% market+2701stale
- 29Josh JobeSEA · CBlimited data1% model · 2% market+4708at build
- 30Devon WitherspoonSEA · CBlimited data1% model · 2% market+5395at build
- 31Budda BakerARI · Slimited data1% model · 1% market+7419at build
- 32Denzel BurkeARI · CBlimited data1% model · 1% market+7419at build
- 33Julian LoveSEA · SAFlimited data1% model · 2% market+4102at build
- 34Nick EmmanworiSEA · SAFlimited data1% model · 2% market+4900at build
- 35Ty OkadaSEA · SAFlimited data1% model · 2% market+6394at build
- 36Andrew WingardARI · SAFlimited data1% model · 1% market+6893at build
- 37Drake ThomasSEA · LBlimited data0% model · 2% market+4708at build
- 38Ernest JonesSEA · LBlimited data0% model · 2% market+6394at build
- 39Mack WilsonARI · LBlimited data0% model · 1% market+7900at build
- 40Jack GibbensARI · LBlimited data0% model · 1% market+16849at build
- 41L.J. CollierARI · DElimited data0% model · 0% market+24900at build
- 42Josh SweatARI · LBlimited data0% model · 0% market+30203at build
- 43Byron Murphy IISEA · DTlimited data0% model · 1% market+16849at build
- 44Dante StillsARI · DTlimited data0% model · 0% market+30203at build
- 45Walter NolenARI · DTlimited data0% model · 0% market+30203at build
First TD scorer market (27)
Ranked by market price. Our model covers anytime TD only, so the model column shows each player's anytime TD probability for context.
- 1Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSEA · WRATD 48.5%+350at build
- 2Zach CharbonnetSEA · RBATD 36.8%+560at build
- 3Jadarian PriceSEA · RBATD 29.6%+640at build
- 4Tyler AllgeierARI · RBATD 20.8%+700at build
- 5Trey McBrideARI · TEATD 30.0%+950at build
- 6AJ BarnerSEA · TEATD 25.8%+1200at build
- 7Michael WilsonARI · WRATD 27.2%+1200at build
- 8Jeremiyah LoveARI · RBATD 18.4%+1250stale
- 9Cooper KuppSEA · WRATD 22.9%+1450at build
- 10Rashid ShaheedSEA · WRATD 10.2%+1651at build
- 11Tory HortonSEA · WRATD 20.6%+2001at build
- 12Drew LockSEA · QBATD 7.1%+2400at build
- 13Elijah HigginsARI · TEATD 5.1%+2903at build
- 14Sam DarnoldSEA · QBATD 8.3%+2903stale
- 15Reggie VirgilARI · WRATD 7.9%+3301at build
- 16Evan HullARI · RBATD 4.2%+3497at build
- 17Emanuel WilsonSEA · RBATD 32.2%+3900at build
- 18George HolaniSEA · RBATD 14.3%+3900at build
- 19Gardner MinshewARI · QBATD 4.0%+4102at build
- 20Jerome FordARI · RBATD 4.6%+4508at build
- 21Eric SaubertSEA · TEATD 5.0%+4900at build
- 22Devin DuvernayARI · WRATD 3.7%+5395at build
- 23Simi FehokoARI · WRATD 4.3%+5888at build
- 24Harrison Wallace IIIARI · WRATD 5.6%+7900at build
- 25Teagan QuitorianoARI · TEATD 4.5%+7900at build
- 26Brady RussellSEA · RBATD 6.9%+9900at build
- 27Nick KallerupSEA · TEATD 6.6%+9900at build
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Chicago Bears
Sun 8:20 PM ETWhere the model sees valuemodel probability vs market-implied, by edge
- Jahdae WalkerCHI · WR11% model · 5% market+6.4pts+2098at build
- Colston LovelandDylan's pickCHI · TE38% model · 35% market+2.6pts+182at build
- Kalif RaymondCHI · WR22% model · 20% market+1.8pts+400at build
- Baker MayfieldTB · QB14% model · 13% market+1.2pts+700at build
D'Andre Swift is the model's most likely scorer (52.8%) — but not a pick at today's price: the market is asking more than our number. Good pick, wrong price. Value opens at -112 or better.
Full model board · all 45 players (ranked by Model TD%)
#PlayerModel vs marketOdds
- 1D'Andre Swiftmodel's #1CHI · RBoverpriced — value at -112 or better53% model · 63% market-169at build
- 2Bucky IrvingTB · RB45% model · 45% market+122at build
- 3Kyle MonangaiCHI · RBoverpriced — value at +153 or better40% model · 54% market-116stale
- 4Colston LovelandDylan's pickCHI · TE38% model · 35% market+182at build
- 5Luther Burden IIICHI · WRoverpriced — value at +224 or better31% model · 38% market+160at build
- 6Rome OdunzeCHI · WR29% model · 34% market+194at build
- 7Emeka EgbukaTB · WR23% model · 31% market+225at build
- 8Kalif RaymondCHI · WR22% model · 20% market+400at build
- 9Chris Godwin Jr.TB · WR21% model · 26% market+290at build
- 10Cade OttonTB · TE16% model · 23% market+340at build
- 11Roschon JohnsonCHI · RB15% model · 27% market+275at build
- 12Caleb WilliamsCHI · QB15% model · 24% market+320at build
- 13Baker MayfieldTB · QB14% model · 13% market+700at build
- 14Tez JohnsonTB · WR13% model · 19% market+420at build
- 15Jahdae WalkerCHI · WR11% model · 5% market+2098at build
- 16Sean TuckerTB · RB9% model · 11% market+800at build
- 17Zavier ScottCHI · RB9% model · 5% market+2098at build
- 18Stephen CarlsonCHI · TE8% model · 4% market+2400at build
- 19Zavion ThomasCHI · WR8% model · 7% market+1399at build
- 20Sam RoushCHI · TE6% model · 14% market+620at build
- 21Payne DurhamTB · TE5% model · 6% market+1500at build
- 22Ko KieftTB · TE4% model · 4% market+2603at build
- 23Bauer SharpTB · TE3% model · 4% market+2603at build
- 24Kameron JohnsonTB · WR2% model · 2% market+4305at build
- 25Jaylon JohnsonCHI · CBlimited data1% model · 2% market+6394at build
- 26Jacob ParrishTB · CBlimited data1% model · 1% market+8375at build
- 27Cam LewisCHI · CBlimited data1% model · 1% market+8909at build
- 28Zyon McCollumTB · CBlimited data1% model · 1% market+8909at build
- 29Kyler GordonCHI · CBlimited data1% model · 1% market+9900at build
- 30Dillon ThienemanCHI · SAFlimited data1% model · 2% market+6394at build
- 31Tykee SmithTB · SAFlimited data1% model · 1% market+8909at build
- 32Antoine Winfield Jr.TB · SAFlimited data1% model · 1% market+11948at build
- 33David Sills VTB · UNKlimited data1% model · 6% market+1450at build
- 34Alex AnzaloneTB · MLBlimited data1% model · 1% market+12887at build
- 35Devin BushCHI · LBlimited data0% model · 1% market+6893at build
- 36Josiah TrotterTB · LBlimited data0% model · 1% market+7900at build
- 37Austin BookerCHI · DElimited data0% model · 0% market+30203at build
- 38Rueben Bain Jr.TB · LBlimited data0% model · 0% market+30203at build
- 39Al-Quadin MuhammadTB · LBlimited data0% model · 0% market+49900at build
- 40Montez SweatCHI · DElimited data0% model · 0% market+49900at build
- 41Jeffery SimmonsCHI · DTlimited data0% model · 1% market+12887at build
- 42A'Shawn RobinsonTB · DTlimited data0% model · 0% market+30203at build
- 43Calijah KanceyTB · DTlimited data0% model · 0% market+30203at build
- 44Grady JarrettCHI · DTlimited data0% model · 0% market+30203at build
- 45Vita VeaTB · DTlimited data0% model · 0% market+30203at build
First TD scorer market (25)
Ranked by market price. Our model covers anytime TD only, so the model column shows each player's anytime TD probability for context.
- 1D'Andre SwiftCHI · RBATD 52.8%+295at build
- 2Kyle MonangaiCHI · RBATD 39.6%+470stale
- 3Bucky IrvingTB · RBATD 45.4%+580at build
- 4Rome OdunzeCHI · WRATD 29.0%+740at build
- 5Luther Burden IIICHI · WRATD 30.9%+800at build
- 6Colston LovelandCHI · TEATD 38.1%+820at build
- 7Emeka EgbukaTB · WRATD 22.8%+1200at build
- 8Roschon JohnsonCHI · RBATD 15.3%+1250at build
- 9Caleb WilliamsCHI · QBATD 15.3%+1399at build
- 10Chris Godwin Jr.TB · WRATD 20.8%+1801at build
- 11Cade OttonTB · TEATD 15.7%+1900at build
- 12Kalif RaymondCHI · WRATD 21.8%+1900at build
- 13Tez JohnsonTB · WRATD 12.5%+2400at build
- 14Baker MayfieldTB · QBATD 13.7%+2701at build
- 15Sam RoushCHI · TEATD 6.2%+2799at build
- 16Sean TuckerTB · RBATD 9.0%+3702at build
- 17Zavion ThomasCHI · WRATD 8.2%+4708at build
- 18David Sills VTB · UNKATD 0.5%+7419at build
- 19Zavier ScottCHI · RBATD 8.7%+7419at build
- 20Bauer SharpTB · TEATD 3.2%+9424at build
- 21Jahdae WalkerCHI · WRATD 10.9%+9424at build
- 22Kameron JohnsonTB · WRATD 2.0%+9424at build
- 23Ko KieftTB · TEATD 3.7%+9424at build
- 24Payne DurhamTB · TEATD 4.5%+9424at build
- 25Stephen CarlsonCHI · TEATD 8.4%+9424at build
