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The Call
Win probability lands with picks the day before kickoff; live market pricing follows once books post prices.
Picks drop the day before kickoff
The model runs after final injury reports. Until then the story below is the substance, and it updates daily.
The Wire
NE @ JAX · odds in decimalNothing on the wire for this game yet. Line moves, picks and scores land here.
New England Patriots vs Jacksonville Jaguars Game Preview
Jacksonville operates at the 97th percentile in explosive passing and converts third downs at the 75th percentile, with a defense that forces turnovers at the 81st percentile and generates pass rush at the 80th percentile. New England's offense ranks in the bottom 20 in sack protection, the bottom 15 in points per drive, and at the 25th percentile in third-down conversion. Jacksonville's pass rush is a direct structural threat to New England's line.
New England's defense generates pressure at the 75th percentile, providing a legitimate path to disrupting Jacksonville's explosive passing game. The offensive gap between these teams is significant and shapes the framing of this matchup.
Check back the day before the game for the full preview and picks.
New England Patriots vs Jacksonville Jaguars Key Insights
- Jacksonville's explosive passing attack (97th pctl) against a New England defense with strong pass-rush credentials (75th pctl)
- New England's vulnerable offensive line (16th pctl in sack protection) against Jacksonville's pass rush (80th pctl)
- Third-down efficiency gap: Jacksonville converts at the 75th percentile, New England at the 25th, drive sustainability will shape field position throughout
Key Players
Passing YardsNE
Drake Maye
386YDS
37/55, 1 TD, 4 INTQB
Rushing YardsNE
Rhamondre Stevenson
94YDS
24 CARRB
Receiving YardsNE
Romeo Doubs
96YDS
3 RECWR
SacksNE
Dre'Mont Jones
1SACKS
DE
TacklesNE
Christian Elliss
16TOT
LB
Passing YardsJAX
Trevor Lawrence
434YDS
35/52, 4 TD, 1 INTQB
Rushing YardsJAX
Bhayshul Tuten
131YDS
28 CAR, 1 TDRB
Receiving YardsJAX
Parker Washington
181YDS
12 REC, 1 TDWR
SacksJAX
Josh Hines-Allen
1.5SACKS
DE
TacklesJAX
Ventrell Miller
17TOT
LB
Recent Form2025 season
New England Patriots
W24-21Philadelphia Eagles
L37-13Cleveland Browns
L13-10Seattle Seahawks
W20-3Pittsburgh Steelers
Jacksonville Jaguars
W24-20New Orleans Saints
L34-17Carolina Panthers
W19-0Tampa Bay Buccaneers
W34-10Cleveland Browns
L20-13Denver Broncos
Early look at New England Patriots vs Jacksonville Jaguars. Full preview and picks land the day before the game.
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