Forest's numbers look better than their record suggests. They lost 0-1 at home in their opener and drew 2-2 away, but the underlying data is encouraging. Their xGD sits at +0.895 per game, meaning they are generating chances and limiting opponents at a healthy rate. Sangare is back in the starting lineup after missing the Liverpool match with a knock. That matters. With Sangare screening the central corridor, Glasner's 3-4-2-1 becomes much harder to play through. And then there is Morgan Gibbs-White, who has 13 Premier League goals in the 2026 calendar year, more than any other player in that span, including one at Anfield just last week. I've watched this side enough to know that when Gibbs-White is running hot and Sangare is sitting deep and controlling tempo, Forest are a legitimate problem for any team at this ground.

Tottenham's situation is genuinely alarming. Dejan Kulusevski, Wilson Odobert, Xavi Simons, and Pape Matar Sarr are all ruled out. James Maddison is doubtful. That is their first-choice creative spine, largely unavailable in one go. In their place, Sandro Tonali and Mateus Fernandes, both expensive summer additions, have so far failed to generate the chemistry their price tags demand. Antonin Kinsky in goal has been directly culpable for multiple goals already this season. Their away xGA sits at 4.04 per game from their one road fixture, a 0-3 loss, more than four times their home xGA of 1.01. The defensive dysfunction Spurs show on the road is extreme right now.

Forest have won four consecutive Premier League meetings with this Tottenham side. The City Ground has produced losses of 0-1 and 0-3 for Spurs in the last two visits. Set pieces have featured prominently across those results, and I believe they will again here. Forest's back three from dead balls, combined with Tottenham's disorganized defensive structure, is exactly the kind of situation where a corner or a free kick in the final third decides the afternoon. The structural and historical case for the home side is strong. The question is whether early-season variance creates a shock. I don't think it does, not with this Spurs squad in this condition.

• Tottenham's away xGA sits at 4.04 per game from their single road fixture, more than four times their home xGA of 1.01 per game. The defensive fragility is specifically an away-from-home problem, and this is an away trip to a compact, organized Forest back three that concedes chances at only 0.88 xGA per game across both matches.
• Forest's xGD is +0.895 per game versus Tottenham's deeply negative -1.585 per game. The underlying quality gap strongly favors the home side, even if Forest's results have not fully reflected their chance creation yet.
• Ibrahim Sangare's return to central midfield is the key lineup development. His presence tightens Forest's press, improves ball recovery in the central corridor, and closes the spaces Spurs' double pivot needs to build from deep. Without him, Forest were more open against Liverpool. With him, their structure is considerably tighter.
• Set pieces are underrated in this matchup. Forest average 8.0 corners per game and Tottenham 12.0, for a combined 20.0 average. Spurs' defensive organization from dead balls has been poor this season. One well-delivered corner or free kick from Forest in dangerous positions could be the deciding moment in what projects as a tight, low-scoring match.
• Craig Pawson averages just 2.8 cards per match across his sample, ranking 19th of 20 EPL referees. Both sides foul frequently (Spurs 14.5 per game, Forest 12.5), but Pawson manages games toward tolerance and flow rather than accumulation. His presence pushes the cards market toward the low end.
• Igor Jesus has generated 1.3 total xG and 6 shots across two matches with zero actual goals. That gap between expected and actual output is historically unsustainable. If Forest get forward in transitions, which Glasner's system is specifically designed to do, Jesus represents genuine conversion upside regardless of the final scoreline.

The best single angle in this match is the Nottingham Forest moneyline at +152. Four consecutive wins against this opponent, a strong xG differential, and the most severe attacking injury crisis Tottenham have faced in years make this a genuine value play, not just a contrarian one. The Under 2.5 goals at -102 sits naturally alongside it. The corners market at +100 for over 10.5 is worth a look for those who want to diversify, given the combined 20.0 corner average this season. The SGP as outlined creates a coherent 1-0 Forest thesis with natural leg correlation, though five-leg parlays carry real variance. Individual picks on the moneyline and the Under carry stronger standalone legs.

The honest caveat: it is only matchday three, and early-season samples are thin. A newly assembled Tottenham squad can produce unexpected performances as combinations gel, and the draw at +255 deserves mention as the outcome that breaks most of these picks. I understand why someone would want a small stake there for protection. But the structural case is too compelling to ignore at this price, and the injury context only strengthens what was already a favorable matchup for Forest. Bet responsibly, set your limit before you start, and never chase. For more predictions, check our Premier League picks today and BTTS picks.