Opposing him is Matt Waldron, making his first start of 2026 for the San Diego Padres after throwing exactly 4.2 innings in all of 2025. That lone outing last year produced a 7.71 ERA, 6 walks, and an early exit. His last three recorded starts averaged 4.3 innings and 3 strikeouts apiece, with a combined 18 earned runs. The market is pricing San Diego as a slight underdog purely because Soriano is elite at home, but that framing overlooks how this game actually plays out once Waldron exits in the fourth or fifth inning.

The Padres roll in on an 8-game winning streak sitting 13-6 with a +21 run differential. Their away record this year is 4-2. Their bullpen ERA of 2.68 is one of the best in the league. The Angels are 10-10 with a 3-3 mark at home, returning from a wild series at Yankee Stadium where Mike Trout put on a show for the ages. As one reporter noted: "Trout smacked his seventh home run of the 2026 season, a solo shot in the top of the seventh inning to give the Los Angeles Angels a 7-4 lead on the Yanks." His last-7-days OPS is 1.434, and he has homered in four consecutive games, becoming the first opposing player to accomplish that at Yankee Stadium. He is the one bat in this lineup that can change everything.

For San Diego, the player to watch is Ty France. He is 6-for-12 (.500 average, 1.333 OPS) against Soriano in 12 career plate appearances spanning 2023, 2024, and 2025. That is the most consistent batter-vs-pitcher number on this entire slate. The OPS held at 1.167, 1.417, and 1.333 in consecutive seasons, not a fluke. If he gets deployed against Soriano, he is the one Padres bat with documented, repeatable success against the best pitcher on the field. Angel Stadium plays slightly below neutral for run scoring (runs factor 0.97), which reinforces the pitcher-friendly environment Soriano and the Angels' bullpen will try to exploit.

• Soriano owns a 0.33 ERA and 10.3 K/9 through 27 innings in 2026. He has averaged 8.0 strikeouts over his last two starts and struck out multiple San Diego hitters in career samples so thin they have yet to record a single hit against him. The 4.5 K line on offer reflects none of that production ceiling.
• Waldron averaged 4.3 innings and 3 strikeouts in each of his last three starts, with 6 walks in his lone 2025 appearance. First starts after long absences carry documented rust risk. The Angels' bullpen ERA of 4.83 means the back end of the game becomes a grind regardless of who wins the early innings.
• San Diego's bullpen ERA of 2.68 is the equalizer. Even if Waldron is replaced by the fourth or fifth inning, the Padres can hand the ball to one of baseball's sharpest pens and trust them to hold a lead or a tie game.
• Mike Trout has 7 home runs this season with 5 in his last four games. Waldron allowed 21 HR in 146.2 innings in 2024 and arrives in his first appearance of the year with velocity and command questions. Trout at peak form against a cold-start pitcher is a genuine danger at any price.
• Ty France has a .500 career average and 1.333 OPS across 12 plate appearances against Soriano. That sample spans three seasons with zero sign of regression. He is the one Padres bat the Angels' ace has not solved, and his current 7-day OPS of 1.318 shows he is productive right now.
• Jackson Merrill is 0-for-5 in his career against Soriano with a .000 OPS across 2024 and 2025 combined. Those were not Soriano's best seasons. His 2026 form is better than both.

The Padres moneyline at +112 is the contrarian read. The market defaults to the home starter when he is this good. That is understandable. But paying -159 for the Angels requires trusting an average bullpen to hold a lead after Soriano exits, against a San Diego offense that has outscored opponents by 21 runs in 19 games. San Diego's 2.68 pen ERA, 8-game streak, and 4-2 away record make them the stronger side over nine innings. The price reflects none of that. Waldron's one caveat: he went 6.1 innings and allowed 1 run against this same Angels lineup in June 2024. A bounce-back debut is not impossible, and Trout at 1.434 OPS in his last 7 days is dangerous against any starter making a first appearance of the year. These are edges, not certainties. Manage your sizing accordingly.

The best single play is Soriano over 4.5 K. The best value play is Waldron under 3.5 K at +110. For the full slate, see our MLB picks today, NRFI picks, and player props.