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NFL Betting

Odds, predictions, standings, and expert analysis for every NFL game

Anytime TD Board · 2026-10-11

This board is shown exactly as it was published before kickoff. Probabilities and odds are not updated after the slate.

Philadelphia Eagles @ Jacksonville Jaguars

Sun 9:30 AM ET
Where the model sees valuemodel probability vs market-implied, by edge
  • Tanner KoziolJAX · TElimited data10% model · 5% market+5.6pts+2098at build
  • C.J. WilliamsJAX · WRlimited data10% model · 5% market+5.1pts+1801at build
  • Brenton StrangeJon's pickJAX · TE30% model · 25% market+4.9pts+295at build
  • Chris Rodriguez Jr.JAX · RB27% model · 22% market+4.5pts+350at build
  • Jakobi MeyersJon's pickJAX · WR29% model · 25% market+3.5pts+295at build
  • Josh CameronJAX · WR15% model · 12% market+3.2pts+740at build
  • Carson SteelePHI · RB10% model · 8% market+1.7pts+1100at build
model TD% market implied

Parker Washington is the model's most likely scorer (38.0%) — but not a pick at today's price: the market is asking more than our number. Good pick, wrong price. Value opens at +163 or better.

Full model board · all 52 players (ranked by Model TD%)
#PlayerModel vs marketOdds
  • 1Parker Washingtonmodel's #1JAX · WRoverpriced — value at +163 or better38% model · 38% market+162at build
  • 2Bhayshul TutenJAX · RBoverpriced — value at +191 or better34% model · 50% market+100at build
  • 3Brenton StrangeJon's pickJAX · TE30% model · 25% market+295at build
  • 4Jakobi MeyersJon's pickJAX · WR29% model · 25% market+295at build
  • 5Chris Rodriguez Jr.JAX · RB27% model · 22% market+350at build
  • 6Trevor LawrenceJAX · QB23% model · 24% market+310at build
  • 7DeVonta SmithPHI · WR21% model · 30% market+230stale
  • 8Brian Thomas Jr.JAX · WR21% model · 22% market+360at build
  • 9Dontayvion WicksPHI · WR18% model · 20% market+390at build
  • 10Josh CameronJAX · WR15% model · 12% market+740at build
  • 11Jalen HurtsPHI · QB15% model · 33% market+205at build
  • 12Dallas GoedertPHI · TE14% model · 25% market+300at build
  • 13Darius CooperPHI · WR14% model · 20% market+400at build
  • 14Makai LemonPHI · WR13% model · 17% market+490at build
  • 15Zach ErtzPHI · TE11% model · 17% market+500at build
  • 16Nate BoerkircherJAX · TElimited data11% model · 11% market+820at build
  • 17C.J. WilliamsJAX · WRlimited data10% model · 5% market+1801at build
  • 18Tanner KoziolJAX · TElimited data10% model · 5% market+2098at build
  • 19Carson SteelePHI · RB10% model · 8% market+1100at build
  • 20Johnny MundtPHI · TE9% model · 6% market+1550at build
  • 21LeQuint Allen Jr.JAX · RB8% model · 7% market+1250at build
  • 22Ameer AbdullahJAX · RB8% model · 7% market+1399at build
  • 23Will ShipleyPHI · RB7% model · 25% market+300at build
  • 24Dameon PiercePHI · RB7% model · 17% market+480at build
  • 25Elijah MoorePHI · WR7% model · 5% market+1900at build
  • 26Quintin MorrisJAX · TE6% model · 5% market+1748at build
  • 27E.J. JenkinsPHI · TE5% model · 2% market+4708at build
  • 28Britain CoveyPHI · WR2% model · 4% market+2199at build
  • 29Travis HunterJAX · CBlimited data1% model · 6% market+1500at build
  • 30Jarrian JonesJAX · CBlimited data1% model · 2% market+5395at build
  • 31Quinyon MitchellPHI · CBlimited data1% model · 2% market+6394at build
  • 32Cooper DeJeanPHI · CBlimited data1% model · 1% market+8375at build
  • 33Michael Carter IIPHI · CBlimited data1% model · 1% market+8375at build
  • 34Riq WoolenPHI · CBlimited data1% model · 1% market+9900at build
  • 35Antonio JohnsonJAX · SAFlimited data1% model · 2% market+4900at build
  • 36Andrew MukubaPHI · SAFlimited data1% model · 1% market+7419at build
  • 37Hollywood BrownPHI · UNKlimited data1% model · 14% market+620at build
  • 38Foyesade OluokunJAX · LBlimited data0% model · 2% market+4900at build
  • 39Ventrell MillerJAX · LBlimited data0% model · 1% market+6893at build
  • 40Zack BaunPHI · LBlimited data0% model · 1% market+9900at build
  • 41Jihaad CampbellPHI · LBlimited data0% model · 1% market+11948at build
  • 42Josh Hines-AllenJAX · DElimited data0% model · 1% market+19900at build
  • 43Dennis GardeckJAX · LBlimited data0% model · 0% market+23710at build
  • 44Jalyx HuntPHI · LBlimited data0% model · 0% market+23710at build
  • 45Nolan SmithPHI · LBlimited data0% model · 0% market+30203at build
  • 46Travon WalkerJAX · DElimited data0% model · 0% market+49900at build
  • 47Arik ArmsteadJAX · DTlimited data0% model · 0% market+30203at build
  • 48Jalen CarterPHI · DTlimited data0% model · 0% market+30203at build
  • 49DaVon HamiltonJAX · DTlimited data0% model · 0% market+49900at build
  • 50Jordan DavisPHI · DTlimited data0% model · 0% market+49900at build
  • 51Moro OjomoPHI · DTlimited data0% model · 0% market+49900at build
  • 52Ruke OrhorhoroJAX · DTlimited data0% model · 0% market+49900at build
First TD scorer market (30)

Ranked by market price. Our model covers anytime TD only, so the model column shows each player's anytime TD probability for context.

Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers

Sun 1:00 PM ET
Where the model sees valuemodel probability vs market-implied, by edge
  • Josh WhyleGB · TE14% model · 4% market+10.0pts+2701at build
  • Mark RedmanGB · TElimited data12% model · 6% market+6.7pts+1699at build
  • Tucker KraftJon's pickGB · TE33% model · 29% market+3.8pts+240at build
  • Jahdae WalkerCHI · WR11% model · 8% market+3.1pts+1100at build
  • Rome OdunzeCHI · WR30% model · 29% market+1.6pts+250at build
  • Colston LovelandCHI · TE32% model · 30% market+1.6pts+230at build
  • Cole KmetCHI · TE15% model · 14% market+1.0pts+620at build
model TD% market implied

D'Andre Swift is the model's most likely scorer (39.6%) — but not a pick at today's price: the market is asking more than our number. Good pick, wrong price. Value opens at +153 or better.

Full model board · all 48 players (ranked by Model TD%)
#PlayerModel vs marketOdds
  • 1D'Andre Swiftmodel's #1CHI · RBoverpriced — value at +153 or better40% model · 56% market-127at build
  • 2Kyle MonangaiCHI · RBoverpriced — value at +169 or better37% model · 45% market+124at build
  • 3Tucker KraftJon's pickGB · TE33% model · 29% market+240at build
  • 4Christian WatsonGB · WRoverpriced — value at +207 or better33% model · 34% market+196at build
  • 5Colston LovelandCHI · TE32% model · 30% market+230at build
  • 6Rome OdunzeCHI · WR30% model · 29% market+250at build
  • 7Matthew GoldenGB · WR26% model · 30% market+235at build
  • 8MarShawn LloydGB · RB24% model · 43% market+134at build
  • 9Luther Burden IIICHI · WR24% model · 29% market+240at build
  • 10Kalif RaymondCHI · WR17% model · 19% market+420at build
  • 11Cole KmetCHI · TE15% model · 14% market+620at build
  • 12Josh WhyleGB · TE14% model · 4% market+2701at build
  • 13Mark RedmanGB · TElimited data12% model · 6% market+1699at build
  • 14Jahdae WalkerCHI · WR11% model · 8% market+1100at build
  • 15Kaleb JohnsonGB · RB11% model · 33% market+200at build
  • 16Chris BrooksGB · RB11% model · 21% market+370at build
  • 17Pierre StrongGB · RB9% model · 11% market+840at build
  • 18Jonnu SmithGB · TE9% model · 10% market+860at build
  • 19Jordan LoveGB · QB8% model · 11% market+840at build
  • 20Sam RoushCHI · TElimited data8% model · 7% market+1349at build
  • 21Skyy MooreGB · WR8% model · 17% market+480at build
  • 22Tyson BagentCHI · QB7% model · 16% market+540at build
  • 23Roschon JohnsonCHI · RB7% model · 17% market+500at build
  • 24Bo MeltonGB · WR6% model · 6% market+1601at build
  • 25J. Michael SturdivantGB · WRlimited data6% model · 5% market+1900at build
  • 26Zavion ThomasCHI · WRlimited data5% model · 6% market+1699at build
  • 27Cam LewisCHI · CBlimited data1% model · 2% market+5888at build
  • 28Brandon CisseGB · CBlimited data1% model · 1% market+6893at build
  • 29Malik MuhammadCHI · CBlimited data1% model · 1% market+7419at build
  • 30Jaylon JohnsonCHI · CBlimited data1% model · 1% market+7900at build
  • 31Xavier McKinneyGB · SAFlimited data1% model · 2% market+5395at build
  • 32Evan WilliamsGB · SAFlimited data1% model · 2% market+6394at build
  • 33Dillon ThienemanCHI · SAFlimited data1% model · 1% market+7419at build
  • 34Keisean NixonGB · DBlimited data1% model · 1% market+7900at build
  • 35Javon BullardGB · SAFlimited data1% model · 1% market+9424at build
  • 36Zaire FranklinGB · OLBlimited data1% model · 1% market+9424at build
  • 37Devin BushCHI · LBlimited data0% model · 2% market+5888at build
  • 38T.J. EdwardsCHI · LBlimited data0% model · 1% market+6893at build
  • 39Montez SweatCHI · DElimited data0% model · 0% market+27678at build
  • 40Barryn SorrellGB · DElimited data0% model · 0% market+30203at build
  • 41Dani Dennis-SuttonGB · LBlimited data0% model · 0% market+30203at build
  • 42Brenton Cox Jr.GB · DElimited data0% model · 0% market+49900at build
  • 43Dayo OdeyingboCHI · DElimited data0% model · 0% market+49900at build
  • 44Kentavius StreetCHI · DElimited data0% model · 0% market+49900at build
  • 45Lukas Van NessGB · LBlimited data0% model · 0% market+49900at build
  • 46Grady JarrettCHI · DTlimited data0% model · 0% market+30203at build
  • 47Devonte WyattGB · DTlimited data0% model · 0% market+49900stale
  • 48Karl BrooksGB · DTlimited data0% model · 0% market+49900at build
First TD scorer market (26)

Ranked by market price. Our model covers anytime TD only, so the model column shows each player's anytime TD probability for context.

Houston Texans @ Tennessee Titans

Sun 1:00 PM ET
Where the model sees valuemodel probability vs market-implied, by edge
model TD% market implied

Nico Collins is the model's most likely scorer (35.4%) — but not a pick at today's price: the market is asking more than our number. Good pick, wrong price. Value opens at +182 or better.

Full model board · all 51 players (ranked by Model TD%)
#PlayerModel vs marketOdds
First TD scorer market (28)

Ranked by market price. Our model covers anytime TD only, so the model column shows each player's anytime TD probability for context.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Miami Dolphins

Sun 1:00 PM ET

No positive model edges at the prices available on this game right now.

Chase Brown is the model's most likely scorer (50.7%) — but not a pick at today's price: the market is asking more than our number. Good pick, wrong price. Value opens at -103 or better.

Full model board · all 43 players (ranked by Model TD%)
#PlayerModel vs marketOdds
  • 1Chase Brownmodel's #1CIN · RBoverpriced — value at -103 or better51% model · 63% market-167at build
  • 2Tee HigginsCIN · WRoverpriced — value at +156 or better39% model · 56% market-125at build
  • 3Ja'Marr ChaseCIN · WRoverpriced — value at +261 or better28% model · 55% market-120at build
  • 4Malik WashingtonMIA · WRoverpriced — value at +315 or better24% model · 26% market+280at build
  • 5Mike GesickiCIN · TEoverpriced — value at +337 or better23% model · 29% market+240at build
  • 6Malik WillisMIA · QB21% model · 24% market+310at build
  • 7Dohnte MeyersCIN · WR20% model · 30% market+230at build
  • 8Samaje PerineCIN · RB19% model · 23% market+330at build
  • 9Caleb DouglasMIA · WRlimited data18% model · 18% market+470stale
  • 10Ollie Gordon IIMIA · RB18% model · 40% market+148at build
  • 11Chris BellMIA · WR16% model · 18% market+470at build
  • 12Jaylen WrightMIA · RB13% model · 29% market+250at build
  • 13Joe BurrowCIN · QB11% model · 13% market+700at build
  • 14Kevin Coleman Jr.MIA · WRlimited data11% model · 12% market+740at build
  • 15Greg DulcichMIA · TE10% model · 18% market+450at build
  • 16Tanner HudsonCIN · TE10% model · 10% market+950at build
  • 17Jack EndriesCIN · TElimited data10% model · 8% market+1100at build
  • 18Will KacmarekMIA · TE9% model · 8% market+1200at build
  • 19Jalen TolbertMIA · WR7% model · 5% market+2098at build
  • 20Justin JolyMIA · TElimited data7% model · 4% market+2497stale
  • 21Seydou TraoreMIA · TElimited data7% model · 4% market+2497at build
  • 22Drew SampleCIN · TE7% model · 10% market+900at build
  • 23Erick AllCIN · TE6% model · 7% market+1349at build
  • 24DJ HermanMIA · RBlimited data6% model · 6% market+1601at build
  • 25Ryan MillerMIA · WR6% model · 6% market+1601at build
  • 26Colbie YoungCIN · WRlimited data4% model · 17% market+500at build
  • 27Tahj BrooksCIN · RB3% model · 4% market+2199at build
  • 28Chris JohnsonMIA · CBlimited data1% model · 1% market+7900at build
  • 29Jason Marshall Jr.MIA · CBlimited data1% model · 1% market+10889at build
  • 30Jordan BattleCIN · SAFlimited data1% model · 2% market+5888at build
  • 31Daxton HillCIN · DBlimited data1% model · 1% market+6893at build
  • 32Michael TaaffeMIA · SAFlimited data1% model · 1% market+6893at build
  • 33Dante Trader Jr.MIA · SAFlimited data1% model · 1% market+8909at build
  • 34JuJu BrentsMIA · UNKlimited data1% model · 1% market+11948at build
  • 35Demetrius Knight Jr.CIN · LBlimited data0% model · 2% market+5395at build
  • 36Barrett CarterCIN · LBlimited data0% model · 2% market+6394at build
  • 37Jordyn BrooksMIA · LBlimited data0% model · 1% market+9424at build
  • 38Jacob RodriguezMIA · LBlimited data0% model · 1% market+10889at build
  • 39Chop RobinsonMIA · LBlimited data0% model · 0% market+23156at build
  • 40Zach SielerMIA · DElimited data0% model · 0% market+23710at build
  • 41Joshua UcheMIA · LBlimited data0% model · 0% market+30203at build
  • 42Jonathan AllenCIN · DTlimited data0% model · 0% market+30203at build
  • 43Jordan PhillipsMIA · DTlimited data0% model · 0% market+30203at build
First TD scorer market (27)

Ranked by market price. Our model covers anytime TD only, so the model column shows each player's anytime TD probability for context.

Las Vegas Raiders @ New England Patriots

Sun 1:00 PM ET
Where the model sees valuemodel probability vs market-implied, by edge
  • Tanner ArkinNE · TElimited data11% model · 4% market+6.6pts+2199at build
  • Corey KinerNE · RB10% model · 7% market+3.1pts+1301at build
model TD% market implied

Ashton Jeanty is the model's most likely scorer (51.1%) — but not a pick at today's price: the market is asking more than our number. Good pick, wrong price. Value opens at -104 or better.

Full model board · all 42 players (ranked by Model TD%)
#PlayerModel vs marketOdds
  • 1Ashton Jeantymodel's #1LV · RBoverpriced — value at -104 or better51% model · 52% market-109at build
  • 2Rhamondre StevensonNE · RBoverpriced — value at +124 or better45% model · 50% market+102at build
  • 3TreVeyon HendersonNE · RBoverpriced — value at +172 or better37% model · 40% market+150at build
  • 4Brock BowersLV · TEoverpriced — value at +177 or better36% model · 43% market+134at build
  • 5Romeo DoubsNE · WRoverpriced — value at +329 or better23% model · 37% market+170at build
  • 6Hunter HenryNE · TE23% model · 36% market+180at build
  • 7Michael MayerLV · TE22% model · 22% market+360at build
  • 8Tre TuckerLV · WR20% model · 24% market+310at build
  • 9Mack HollinsNE · WR17% model · 31% market+220stale
  • 10Eli RaridonNE · TElimited data17% model · 16% market+520at build
  • 11Drake MayeNE · QB16% model · 22% market+350at build
  • 12DeMario DouglasNE · WR14% model · 24% market+320at build
  • 13Mike Washington Jr.LV · RB14% model · 50% market+100at build
  • 14Efton Chism IIINE · WR13% model · 17% market+500at build
  • 15Kyle WilliamsNE · WR11% model · 14% market+640at build
  • 16Tanner ArkinNE · TElimited data11% model · 4% market+2199at build
  • 17Corey KinerNE · RB10% model · 7% market+1301at build
  • 18Kirk CousinsLV · QB9% model · 5% market+1849at build
  • 19Ian ThomasLV · TE7% model · 5% market+2001at build
  • 20Cody WhiteLV · WR7% model · 18% market+470at build
  • 21Dont'e Thornton Jr.LV · WR6% model · 11% market+800at build
  • 22Reggie GilliamNE · RB6% model · 8% market+1100stale
  • 23Cameron LatuNE · TE5% model · 6% market+1550at build
  • 24Connor HeywardLV · FBlimited data5% model · 8% market+1200at build
  • 25Malik BensonLV · WR5% model · 12% market+740at build
  • 26Dylan LaubeLV · RB4% model · 14% market+640at build
  • 27Dareke YoungLV · WR4% model · 5% market+1801at build
  • 28Deven ThompkinsLV · WR4% model · 3% market+2799at build
  • 29Kevin ByardNE · FSlimited data1% model · 1% market+7419at build
  • 30Marcus JonesNE · CBlimited data1% model · 2% market+4102at build
  • 31Hezekiah MassesLV · CBlimited data1% model · 2% market+5888at build
  • 32Eric StokesLV · CBlimited data1% model · 1% market+7900at build
  • 33Jeremy ChinnLV · SAFlimited data1% model · 1% market+7900at build
  • 34Robert SpillaneNE · LBlimited data0% model · 2% market+5888at build
  • 35Quay WalkerLV · LBlimited data0% model · 1% market+8375at build
  • 36Christian EllissNE · LBlimited data0% model · 1% market+8909at build
  • 37Nakobe DeanLV · LBlimited data0% model · 1% market+9424at build
  • 38Elijah PonderNE · LBlimited data0% model · 1% market+16029at build
  • 39Dre'Mont JonesNE · LBlimited data0% model · 1% market+17757at build
  • 40Maxx CrosbyLV · DElimited data0% model · 0% market+30203at build
  • 41Cory DurdenNE · DTlimited data0% model · 0% market+30203at build
  • 42Milton WilliamsNE · DTlimited data0% model · 0% market+49900at build
First TD scorer market (28)

Ranked by market price. Our model covers anytime TD only, so the model column shows each player's anytime TD probability for context.

Minnesota Vikings @ New Orleans Saints

Sun 1:00 PM ET
Jon's best play · Anytime TD
Jauan JenningsMIN · WR
28.4%our model
vs
14.3%market implied
+14.1ptsmodel edge
+600price at build

Our calibrated model gives Jauan Jennings a 28.4% shot at the end zone, while the market is only pricing 14.3%. That gap is the play.

Where the model sees valuemodel probability vs market-implied, by edge
  • Jauan JenningsJon's best playMIN · WR28% model · 14% market+14.1pts+600at build
  • Devaughn VeleJon's pickNO · WR31% model · 24% market+7.0pts+320at build
  • Chris OlaveJon's pickNO · WR41% model · 34% market+6.1pts+190at build
  • Bryce LanceNO · WR17% model · 14% market+3.5pts+640at build
  • Juwan JohnsonNO · TE26% model · 24% market+1.8pts+320at build
model TD% market implied

Aaron Jones is the model's most likely scorer (47.6%) — but not a pick at today's price: the market is asking more than our number. Good pick, wrong price. Value opens at +110 or better.

Full model board · all 45 players (ranked by Model TD%)
#PlayerModel vs marketOdds
  • 1Aaron Jonesmodel's #1MIN · RBoverpriced — value at +110 or better48% model · 57% market-135at build
  • 2Chris OlaveJon's pickNO · WR41% model · 34% market+190at build
  • 3Devaughn VeleJon's pickNO · WR31% model · 24% market+320at build
  • 4Jordan AddisonMIN · WRoverpriced — value at +242 or better29% model · 30% market+235at build
  • 5Jauan JenningsJon's best playMIN · WR28% model · 14% market+600at build
  • 6Juwan JohnsonNO · TE26% model · 24% market+320at build
  • 7Alvin KamaraNO · RB25% model · 37% market+170at build
  • 8T.J. HockensonMIN · TE24% model · 25% market+300at build
  • 9Tyler ShoughNO · QB20% model · 23% market+330at build
  • 10Bryce LanceNO · WR17% model · 14% market+640at build
  • 11Kyler MurrayMIN · QB16% model · 18% market+460at build
  • 12Kendre MillerNO · RB16% model · 26% market+280at build
  • 13Justin JeffersonMIN · WR13% model · 38% market+164at build
  • 14CJ DonaldsonNO · RB11% model · 13% market+660at build
  • 15Noah FantNO · TE10% model · 11% market+800at build
  • 16Tai FeltonMIN · WR9% model · 6% market+1500at build
  • 17Demond ClaiborneMIN · RBlimited data8% model · 9% market+1000at build
  • 18DeeJay DallasMIN · RB7% model · 8% market+1200at build
  • 19Gavin BartholomewMIN · TElimited data7% model · 6% market+1500at build
  • 20Oscar DelpNO · TElimited data7% model · 8% market+1200at build
  • 21Kevin Austin Jr.NO · WR6% model · 4% market+2497at build
  • 22Myles PriceMIN · WR5% model · 8% market+1150at build
  • 23Max BredesonMIN · RBlimited data5% model · 5% market+1801at build
  • 24Barion BrownNO · WRlimited data5% model · 7% market+1399at build
  • 25Harrison SmithMIN · FSlimited data1% model · 1% market+7419at build
  • 26Byron MurphyMIN · CBlimited data1% model · 2% market+5395at build
  • 27Isaiah RodgersMIN · CBlimited data1% model · 2% market+5395at build
  • 28Kool-Aid McKinstryNO · CBlimited data1% model · 1% market+7419at build
  • 29Quincy RileyNO · CBlimited data1% model · 1% market+7419at build
  • 30Justin ReidNO · Slimited data1% model · 1% market+9900at build
  • 31Josh MetellusMIN · SAFlimited data1% model · 2% market+4900at build
  • 32Theo JacksonMIN · DBlimited data1% model · 1% market+9900at build
  • 33Andrew Van GinkelMIN · OLBlimited data1% model · 1% market+9424at build
  • 34Blake CashmanMIN · LBlimited data0% model · 1% market+6893at build
  • 35Pete WernerNO · LBlimited data0% model · 1% market+9424at build
  • 36Danny StutsmanNO · LBlimited data0% model · 1% market+9900at build
  • 37Dallas TurnerMIN · LBlimited data0% model · 1% market+16849at build
  • 38Chase YoungNO · DElimited data0% model · 0% market+23156at build
  • 39Carl GrandersonNO · DElimited data0% model · 0% market+30203at build
  • 40Cameron JordanNO · LBlimited data0% model · 0% market+49900at build
  • 41Nathan ShepherdNO · DElimited data0% model · 0% market+49900at build
  • 42Jalen RedmondMIN · DLlimited data0% model · 1% market+11948at build
  • 43Tyrion Ingram-DawkinsMIN · DTlimited data0% model · 0% market+26927at build
  • 44Davon GodchauxNO · DTlimited data0% model · 0% market+49900at build
  • 45Vernon BroughtonNO · DTlimited data0% model · 0% market+49900at build
First TD scorer market (24)

Ranked by market price. Our model covers anytime TD only, so the model column shows each player's anytime TD probability for context.

Cleveland Browns @ New York Jets

Sun 1:00 PM ET
Where the model sees valuemodel probability vs market-implied, by edge
model TD% market implied

Garrett Wilson is the model's most likely scorer (37.7%) — but not a pick at today's price: the market is asking more than our number. Good pick, wrong price. Value opens at +165 or better.

Full model board · all 50 players (ranked by Model TD%)
#PlayerModel vs marketOdds
  • 1Garrett Wilsonmodel's #1NYJ · WRoverpriced — value at +165 or better38% model · 43% market+134at build
  • 2Quinshon JudkinsCLE · RBoverpriced — value at +173 or better37% model · 39% market+154at build
  • 3Breece HallNYJ · RBoverpriced — value at +193 or better34% model · 53% market-111at build
  • 4Harold Fannin Jr.Jon's pickCLE · TE31% model · 31% market+225at build
  • 5Denzel BostonCLE · WRoverpriced — value at +228 or better31% model · 33% market+205at build
  • 6Braelon AllenNYJ · RB26% model · 51% market-105at build
  • 7Kenyon SadiqNYJ · TE24% model · 28% market+260at build
  • 8Isaiah WilliamsJon's pickNYJ · WR23% model · 19% market+430at build
  • 9Adonai MitchellNYJ · WR21% model · 31% market+225at build
  • 10Mason TaylorNYJ · TE12% model · 19% market+420at build
  • 11Jerry JeudyCLE · WR11% model · 13% market+700at build
  • 12Raheim SandersCLE · RB11% model · 14% market+640at build
  • 13Deshaun WatsonCLE · QB11% model · 22% market+350at build
  • 14Sterling ShepardNYJ · WR11% model · 9% market+1049at build
  • 15Tim PatrickNYJ · WR11% model · 7% market+1250at build
  • 16Jelani WoodsNYJ · TE10% model · 9% market+1000at build
  • 17Geno SmithNYJ · QB8% model · 11% market+840at build
  • 18Isaiah DavisNYJ · RB7% model · 17% market+500at build
  • 19Jaleel McLaughlinCLE · RB7% model · 7% market+1301at build
  • 20Jeremy RuckertNYJ · TE7% model · 9% market+1000at build
  • 21Blake WhiteheartCLE · TE6% model · 10% market+950at build
  • 22Kene NwangwuNYJ · RB5% model · 4% market+2701at build
  • 23Andrew BeckNYJ · FBlimited data5% model · 4% market+2497at build
  • 24Michael BurtonCLE · FBlimited data5% model · 3% market+3301at build
  • 25Isaiah BondCLE · WR5% model · 4% market+2701at build
  • 26Malachi CorleyCLE · WR5% model · 4% market+2199at build
  • 27Malik McClainNYJ · WRlimited data4% model · 4% market+2701at build
  • 28Jamaal PritchettNYJ · WRlimited data3% model · 4% market+2497at build
  • 29Tylan WallaceCLE · WR2% model · 6% market+1500at build
  • 30Carsen RyanCLE · TElimited data2% model · 3% market+3900at build
  • 31Minkah FitzpatrickNYJ · FSlimited data1% model · 2% market+5888at build
  • 32Azareye'h ThomasNYJ · CBlimited data1% model · 2% market+4900at build
  • 33Brandon StephensNYJ · CBlimited data1% model · 2% market+5888at build
  • 34Tyson CampbellCLE · CBlimited data1% model · 2% market+5888at build
  • 35Denzel WardCLE · CBlimited data1% model · 1% market+7900at build
  • 36Grant DelpitCLE · SAFlimited data1% model · 2% market+4900at build
  • 37Ronnie Hickman Jr.CLE · SAFlimited data1% model · 2% market+4900at build
  • 38Dane BeltonNYJ · SAFlimited data1% model · 1% market+6893at build
  • 39Demario DavisNYJ · OLBlimited data1% model · 2% market+6394at build
  • 40Carson SchwesingerCLE · LBlimited data0% model · 2% market+5395at build
  • 41Quincy WilliamsCLE · LBlimited data0% model · 1% market+7419at build
  • 42Jamien SherwoodNYJ · LBlimited data0% model · 1% market+8375at build
  • 43Jowon BriggsNYJ · DElimited data0% model · 1% market+18768at build
  • 44Isaiah McGuireCLE · DElimited data0% model · 0% market+27678at build
  • 45Adin HuntingtonCLE · DElimited data0% model · 0% market+30203at build
  • 46Jared VerseCLE · DElimited data0% model · 0% market+30203at build
  • 47Sam WilliamsCLE · DElimited data0% model · 0% market+30203at build
  • 48Maliek CollinsCLE · DTlimited data0% model · 0% market+23710at build
  • 49Harrison PhillipsNYJ · DTlimited data0% model · 0% market+30203at build
  • 50T'Vondre SweatNYJ · DTlimited data0% model · 0% market+49900at build
First TD scorer market (30)

Ranked by market price. Our model covers anytime TD only, so the model column shows each player's anytime TD probability for context.

Indianapolis Colts @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Sun 1:00 PM ET
Where the model sees valuemodel probability vs market-implied, by edge
  • Darius SlaytonJon's pickIND · WR22% model · 12% market+10.4pts+740at build
  • DJ GiddensIND · RB11% model · 5% market+6.4pts+2001at build
model TD% market implied

Jaylen Warren is the model's most likely scorer (54.8%) — but not a pick at today's price: the market is asking more than our number. Good pick, wrong price. Value opens at -121 or better.

Full model board · all 41 players (ranked by Model TD%)
#PlayerModel vs marketOdds
  • 1Jaylen Warrenmodel's #1PIT · RBoverpriced — value at -121 or better55% model · 57% market-135at build
  • 2Jonathan TaylorIND · RBoverpriced — value at -108 or better52% model · 63% market-172at build
  • 3DK MetcalfPIT · WRoverpriced — value at +172 or better37% model · 38% market+160at build
  • 4Tyler WarrenIND · TEoverpriced — value at +288 or better26% model · 31% market+220at build
  • 5Pat FreiermuthPIT · TEoverpriced — value at +289 or better26% model · 26% market+280at build
  • 6Rico DowdlePIT · RB26% model · 41% market+144stale
  • 7Josh DownsIND · WR24% model · 30% market+230at build
  • 8Darius SlaytonJon's pickIND · WR22% model · 12% market+740at build
  • 9Michael PittmanPIT · WR22% model · 22% market+360stale
  • 10Roman WilsonPIT · WR17% model · 28% market+260at build
  • 11Darnell WashingtonPIT · TE17% model · 23% market+340at build
  • 12Keenan AllenIND · WR13% model · 19% market+420at build
  • 13Daniel JonesIND · QB13% model · 16% market+540at build
  • 14Germie BernardPIT · WRlimited data13% model · 21% market+380at build
  • 15Laquon TreadwellIND · WR13% model · 14% market+600at build
  • 16DJ GiddensIND · RB11% model · 5% market+2001at build
  • 17Seth McGowanIND · RB10% model · 10% market+900at build
  • 18Aaron RodgersPIT · QB8% model · 8% market+1200at build
  • 19Deion BurksIND · WRlimited data7% model · 6% market+1500at build
  • 20Ashton DulinIND · WR7% model · 15% market+560at build
  • 21Andrew OgletreeIND · TE6% model · 4% market+2199at build
  • 22Ben SkowronekPIT · WR6% model · 7% market+1399at build
  • 23Travis HomerPIT · RB5% model · 8% market+1100stale
  • 24Riley NowakowskiPIT · FBlimited data5% model · 3% market+3301stale
  • 25Mo Alie-CoxIND · TE5% model · 5% market+1748at build
  • 26Kaden WetjenPIT · WR5% model · 5% market+1801at build
  • 27Eli HeidenreichPIT · RBlimited data4% model · 5% market+2001at build
  • 28Anthony GouldIND · WR3% model · 6% market+1500at build
  • 29Robert TonyanPIT · TE3% model · 3% market+2903at build
  • 30Justin WalleyIND · CBlimited data1% model · 1% market+6893at build
  • 31Charvarius WardIND · CBlimited data1% model · 1% market+7900at build
  • 32Sauce GardnerIND · CBlimited data1% model · 1% market+8909at build
  • 33Jaquan BriskerPIT · SAFlimited data1% model · 2% market+5395at build
  • 34Cam BynumIND · UNKlimited data1% model · 2% market+5395at build
  • 35Patrick QueenPIT · LBlimited data0% model · 1% market+6893at build
  • 36Akeem Davis-GaitherIND · LBlimited data0% model · 1% market+7900at build
  • 37Payton WilsonPIT · LBlimited data0% model · 1% market+8375at build
  • 38Laiatu LatuIND · DElimited data0% model · 0% market+30203at build
  • 39Jaylahn TuimoloauIND · DElimited data0% model · 0% market+49900at build
  • 40DeForest BucknerIND · DTlimited data0% model · 0% market+26216at build
  • 41Grover StewartIND · DTlimited data0% model · 0% market+30203at build
First TD scorer market (29)

Ranked by market price. Our model covers anytime TD only, so the model column shows each player's anytime TD probability for context.

New York Giants @ Washington Commanders

Sun 1:00 PM ET
Where the model sees valuemodel probability vs market-implied, by edge
model TD% market implied

Cam Skattebo is the model's most likely scorer (39.3%) — but not a pick at today's price: the market is asking more than our number. Good pick, wrong price. Value opens at +154 or better.

Full model board · all 44 players (ranked by Model TD%)
#PlayerModel vs marketOdds
  • 1Cam Skattebomodel's #1NYG · RBoverpriced — value at +154 or better39% model · 44% market+128at build
  • 2Jacory Croskey-MerrittWSH · RBoverpriced — value at +253 or better28% model · 39% market+154at build
  • 3Stefon DiggsWSH · WRoverpriced — value at +257 or better28% model · 38% market+160at build
  • 4Malik NabersNYG · WRoverpriced — value at +262 or better28% model · 31% market+220at build
  • 5Terry McLaurinWSH · WRoverpriced — value at +282 or better26% model · 35% market+184at build
  • 6Austin EkelerWSH · RB23% model · 16% market+540at build
  • 7Antonio WilliamsWSH · WR20% model · 26% market+280at build
  • 8Malachi FieldsNYG · WR17% model · 18% market+450at build
  • 9Chig OkonkwoWSH · TE17% model · 24% market+310at build
  • 10Rachaad WhiteWSH · RB16% model · 32% market+210at build
  • 11Isaiah LikelyNYG · TE16% model · 29% market+240at build
  • 12Treylon BurksWSH · WR16% model · 18% market+470at build
  • 13Najee HarrisNYG · RB14% model · 21% market+380at build
  • 14Tyrone Tracy Jr.NYG · RB14% model · 10% market+900at build
  • 15Jameis WinstonNYG · QB13% model · 9% market+1000at build
  • 16Theo JohnsonNYG · TE13% model · 10% market+900at build
  • 17Jayden DanielsWSH · QB13% model · 29% market+240at build
  • 18Darnell MooneyNYG · WR11% model · 12% market+740at build
  • 19Dyami BrownWSH · WR11% model · 17% market+500at build
  • 20Jeremy McNicholsWSH · RB11% model · 12% market+760at build
  • 21Patrick RicardNYG · RB8% model · 4% market+2199at build
  • 22Ben SinnottWSH · TE8% model · 6% market+1500at build
  • 23John BatesWSH · TE7% model · 7% market+1250at build
  • 24Luke McCaffreyWSH · WR6% model · 6% market+1651at build
  • 25Chris ManhertzNYG · TE6% model · 4% market+2701at build
  • 26Colson YankoffWSH · TE5% model · 4% market+2497at build
  • 27Dalen CambreNYG · WRlimited data4% model · 1% market+8375at build
  • 28Charlie JonesNYG · WR3% model · 6% market+1450at build
  • 29Rasul DouglasWSH · CBlimited data1% model · 2% market+4508at build
  • 30Amik RobertsonWSH · CBlimited data1% model · 2% market+4708at build
  • 31Greg Newsome IINYG · CBlimited data1% model · 1% market+7419at build
  • 32Deonte BanksNYG · CBlimited data1% model · 1% market+9424at build
  • 33Jeremy ReavesWSH · DBlimited data1% model · 2% market+5888at build
  • 34Jevon HollandNYG · SAFlimited data1% model · 1% market+6893at build
  • 35Tyler NubinNYG · SAFlimited data1% model · 1% market+8375at build
  • 36Tremaine EdmundsNYG · MLBlimited data1% model · 2% market+5888at build
  • 37Dru PhillipsNYG · UNKlimited data1% model · 1% market+9900at build
  • 38Sonny StylesWSH · LBlimited data0% model · 1% market+8375at build
  • 39Frankie LuvuWSH · LBlimited data0% model · 1% market+9424at build
  • 40Arvell ReeseNYG · LBlimited data0% model · 1% market+16029at build
  • 41Abdul CarterNYG · LBlimited data0% model · 0% market+26216at build
  • 42Kayvon ThibodeauxNYG · LBlimited data0% model · 0% market+30203at build
  • 43Shelby HarrisNYG · DElimited data0% model · 0% market+30203at build
  • 44DJ ReaderNYG · DTlimited data0% model · 0% market+49900at build
First TD scorer market (28)

Ranked by market price. Our model covers anytime TD only, so the model column shows each player's anytime TD probability for context.

Denver Broncos @ Los Angeles Chargers

Sun 4:05 PM ET
Where the model sees valuemodel probability vs market-implied, by edge
  • Kimani VidalLAC · RB18% model · 14% market+4.1pts+600at build
  • RJ HarveyJon's pickmodel's #1DEN · RB38% model · 34% market+3.6pts+194at build
model TD% market implied
Full model board · all 45 players (ranked by Model TD%)
#PlayerModel vs marketOdds
  • 1RJ HarveyJon's pickmodel's #1DEN · RB38% model · 34% market+194at build
  • 2J.K. DobbinsDEN · RBoverpriced — value at +191 or better34% model · 42% market+138at build
  • 3Omarion HamptonLAC · RBoverpriced — value at +221 or better31% model · 38% market+164at build
  • 4Jaylen WaddleDEN · WRoverpriced — value at +277 or better27% model · 34% market+194at build
  • 5Courtland SuttonDEN · WRoverpriced — value at +291 or better26% model · 33% market+200at build
  • 6Quentin JohnstonLAC · WR25% model · 28% market+260at build
  • 7Tre HarrisLAC · WR21% model · 27% market+265at build
  • 8Kimani VidalLAC · RB18% model · 14% market+600at build
  • 9Bo NixDEN · QB18% model · 20% market+410at build
  • 10Ladd McConkeyLAC · WR18% model · 33% market+200at build
  • 11Justin HerbertLAC · QB15% model · 16% market+540at build
  • 12Keaton MitchellLAC · RB15% model · 26% market+280at build
  • 13Evan EngramDEN · TE15% model · 17% market+480at build
  • 14Oronde Gadsden IILAC · TE14% model · 25% market+300at build
  • 15Marvin Mims Jr.DEN · WR10% model · 12% market+740at build
  • 16Marquez Valdes-ScantlingLAC · WR9% model · 17% market+480at build
  • 17Adam TrautmanDEN · TE9% model · 10% market+950at build
  • 18Nate AdkinsDEN · TE9% model · 7% market+1250at build
  • 19Dallen BentleyDEN · TElimited data9% model · 5% market+2001at build
  • 20Tyler BadieDEN · RB8% model · 12% market+740at build
  • 21Troy FranklinDEN · WR7% model · 13% market+700at build
  • 22Charlie KolarLAC · TE6% model · 17% market+480at build
  • 23Brenen ThompsonLAC · WRlimited data6% model · 8% market+1100at build
  • 24Lil'Jordan HumphreyDEN · WR5% model · 7% market+1250at build
  • 25Alec IngoldLAC · FBlimited data5% model · 5% market+2001at build
  • 26Adam PrenticeDEN · FBlimited data5% model · 5% market+2098at build
  • 27Hayden RucciLAC · TElimited data4% model · 8% market+1200at build
  • 28Derius DavisLAC · WR4% model · 13% market+700at build
  • 29Jahdae BarronDEN · CBlimited data1% model · 2% market+5888at build
  • 30Tarheeb StillLAC · CBlimited data1% model · 1% market+6893at build
  • 31Kris Abrams-DraineDEN · CBlimited data1% model · 1% market+7419at build
  • 32Cam HartLAC · CBlimited data1% model · 1% market+9900at build
  • 33Tony JeffersonLAC · Slimited data1% model · 1% market+9900at build
  • 34Brandon JonesDEN · SAFlimited data1% model · 2% market+4900at build
  • 35Talanoa HufangaDEN · SAFlimited data1% model · 1% market+6893at build
  • 36Khalil MackLAC · OLBlimited data1% model · 1% market+17757at build
  • 37Alex SingletonDEN · LBlimited data0% model · 2% market+6394at build
  • 38Daiyan HenleyLAC · LBlimited data0% model · 1% market+8375at build
  • 39Nik BonittoDEN · LBlimited data0% model · 1% market+10889at build
  • 40Tuli TuipulotuLAC · LBlimited data0% model · 1% market+10889at build
  • 41Justin StrnadDEN · LBlimited data0% model · 1% market+12887at build
  • 42Jonah EllissDEN · LBlimited data0% model · 1% market+17757at build
  • 43Zach AllenDEN · DElimited data0% model · 1% market+18768at build
  • 44D.J. JonesDEN · DTlimited data0% model · 0% market+49900at build
  • 45Eyioma UwazurikeDEN · DTlimited data0% model · 0% market+49900at build
First TD scorer market (28)

Ranked by market price. Our model covers anytime TD only, so the model column shows each player's anytime TD probability for context.

Detroit Lions @ Arizona Cardinals

Sun 4:25 PM ET
Where the model sees valuemodel probability vs market-implied, by edge
model TD% market implied

Jahmyr Gibbs is the model's most likely scorer (60.1%) — but not a pick at today's price: the market is asking more than our number. Good pick, wrong price. Value opens at -151 or better.

Full model board · all 42 players (ranked by Model TD%)
#PlayerModel vs marketOdds
  • 1Jahmyr Gibbsmodel's #1DET · RBoverpriced — value at -151 or better60% model · 81% market-435at build
  • 2Trey McBrideJon's pickARI · TE51% model · 47% market+114at build
  • 3Amon-Ra St. BrownDET · WRoverpriced — value at +117 or better46% model · 60% market-147at build
  • 4Sam LaPortaDET · TE42% model · 38% market+160at build
  • 5Jeremiyah LoveARI · RBoverpriced — value at +146 or better41% model · 57% market-132at build
  • 6Michael WilsonJon's pickARI · WR41% model · 38% market+160at build
  • 7Jameson WilliamsDET · WR38% model · 37% market+174at build
  • 8Tyler AllgeierARI · RB30% model · 33% market+200at build
  • 9Isaac TeSlaaDET · WR28% model · 21% market+370at build
  • 10Marvin Harrison Jr.ARI · WR24% model · 25% market+300at build
  • 11Tyler ConklinDET · TE16% model · 7% market+1399at build
  • 12Jacoby BrissettARI · QB12% model · 17% market+500at build
  • 13Brock WrightDET · TE12% model · 14% market+640at build
  • 14Sione VakiDET · RB12% model · 14% market+620at build
  • 15Teagan QuitorianoARI · TE12% model · 4% market+2199at build
  • 16Elijah HigginsARI · TE11% model · 9% market+1000at build
  • 17Kendrick BourneARI · WR9% model · 17% market+500at build
  • 18Tay MartinDET · WR8% model · 3% market+3497at build
  • 19Jacob SaylorsDET · RB7% model · 4% market+2199at build
  • 20Jared GoffDET · QB7% model · 8% market+1100at build
  • 21Jackson MeeksDET · WRlimited data6% model · 6% market+1699at build
  • 22Jalen BrooksARI · WR6% model · 4% market+2199at build
  • 23Tom KennedyDET · WR5% model · 4% market+2199at build
  • 24Simi FehokoARI · WR5% model · 4% market+2701at build
  • 25Devin DuvernayARI · WR4% model · 6% market+1699at build
  • 26Roger McCrearyDET · CBlimited data1% model · 2% market+5888at build
  • 27Max MeltonARI · CBlimited data1% model · 1% market+6893at build
  • 28Budda BakerARI · Slimited data1% model · 1% market+7419at build
  • 29D.J. ReedDET · CBlimited data1% model · 1% market+7419at build
  • 30Denzel BurkeARI · CBlimited data1% model · 1% market+9900at build
  • 31Chuck ClarkDET · SAFlimited data1% model · 1% market+6893at build
  • 32Christian IzienDET · SAFlimited data1% model · 1% market+9900at build
  • 33Jack CampbellDET · LBlimited data0% model · 1% market+8375at build
  • 34Derrick BarnesDET · LBlimited data0% model · 1% market+10889at build
  • 35Jack GibbensARI · LBlimited data0% model · 1% market+12887at build
  • 36Mack WilsonARI · LBlimited data0% model · 1% market+14825at build
  • 37Trevor NowaskeDET · LBlimited data0% model · 0% market+24900at build
  • 38D.J. WonnumDET · DElimited data0% model · 0% market+27678at build
  • 39Aidan HutchinsonDET · DElimited data0% model · 0% market+30203at build
  • 40Alim McNeillDET · DTlimited data0% model · 0% market+24900at build
  • 41Tyleik WilliamsDET · DTlimited data0% model · 0% market+30203at build
  • 42Dante StillsARI · DTlimited data0% model · 0% market+49900at build
First TD scorer market (25)

Ranked by market price. Our model covers anytime TD only, so the model column shows each player's anytime TD probability for context.

San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks

Sun 4:25 PM ET
Where the model sees valuemodel probability vs market-implied, by edge
  • AJ BarnerSEA · TE28% model · 24% market+3.3pts+310at build
  • Brock PurdySF · QB19% model · 16% market+3.1pts+540at build
  • George KittleSF · TE38% model · 35% market+2.3pts+184at build
  • Tory HortonSEA · WR16% model · 14% market+1.7pts+600at build
  • Kaelon BlackSF · RB14% model · 13% market+1.2pts+700at build
model TD% market implied

Christian McCaffrey is the model's most likely scorer (52.0%) — but not a pick at today's price: the market is asking more than our number. Good pick, wrong price. Value opens at -108 or better.

Full model board · all 36 players (ranked by Model TD%)
#PlayerModel vs marketOdds
  • 1Christian McCaffreymodel's #1SF · RBoverpriced — value at -108 or better52% model · 57% market-135at build
  • 2Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSEA · WRoverpriced — value at +121 or better45% model · 54% market-116at build
  • 3George KittleSF · TE38% model · 35% market+184at build
  • 4Emanuel WilsonSEA · RBoverpriced — value at +213 or better32% model · 57% market-130at build
  • 5AJ BarnerSEA · TE28% model · 24% market+310at build
  • 6Deebo Samuel Sr.SF · WR27% model · 32% market+210at build
  • 7Mike EvansSF · WR26% model · 33% market+200at build
  • 8Rashid ShaheedSEA · WR19% model · 24% market+310at build
  • 9Brock PurdySF · QB19% model · 16% market+540at build
  • 10Cooper KuppSEA · WR17% model · 22% market+350at build
  • 11George HolaniSEA · RB16% model · 29% market+240at build
  • 12Tory HortonSEA · WR16% model · 14% market+600at build
  • 13Kaelon BlackSF · RB14% model · 13% market+700at build
  • 14Eric SaubertSEA · TE8% model · 5% market+1900at build
  • 15Sam DarnoldSEA · QB8% model · 10% market+900at build
  • 16Brady RussellSEA · RB8% model · 4% market+2497at build
  • 17Luke FarrellSF · TE8% model · 6% market+1500at build
  • 18Velus Jones Jr.SEA · RB7% model · 5% market+1748at build
  • 19Nick KallerupSEA · TE7% model · 3% market+3497at build
  • 20Brandin CooksSF · WR6% model · 12% market+740at build
  • 21Jordan JamesSF · RBlimited data6% model · 4% market+2701at build
  • 22Jacob CowingSF · WR6% model · 12% market+740at build
  • 23Elijah ArroyoSEA · TE6% model · 11% market+840at build
  • 24Jordan WatkinsSF · WRlimited data6% model · 7% market+1399at build
  • 25Kyle JuszczykSF · FBlimited data5% model · 8% market+1100stale
  • 26Brayden WillisSF · TE4% model · 7% market+1301at build
  • 27Montorie Foster JrSEA · WRlimited data4% model · 1% market+7419at build
  • 28Devon WitherspoonSEA · CBlimited data1% model · 2% market+4900at build
  • 29Deommodore LenoirSF · CBlimited data1% model · 2% market+6394at build
  • 30Josh JobeSEA · CBlimited data1% model · 1% market+6893at build
  • 31Renardo GreenSF · CBlimited data1% model · 1% market+7900at build
  • 32Julian LoveSEA · SAFlimited data1% model · 2% market+4900at build
  • 33Fred WarnerSF · MLBlimited data1% model · 1% market+8909at build
  • 34Ernest JonesSEA · LBlimited data0% model · 1% market+7900at build
  • 35Drake ThomasSEA · LBlimited data0% model · 1% market+8375at build
  • 36Dre GreenlawSF · LBlimited data0% model · 1% market+11948at build
First TD scorer market (26)

Ranked by market price. Our model covers anytime TD only, so the model column shows each player's anytime TD probability for context.

Baltimore Ravens @ Atlanta Falcons

Sun 8:20 PM ET
Where the model sees valuemodel probability vs market-implied, by edge
model TD% market implied

Bijan Robinson is the model's most likely scorer (59.1%) — but not a pick at today's price: the market is asking more than our number. Good pick, wrong price. Value opens at -144 or better.

Full model board · all 35 players (ranked by Model TD%)
#PlayerModel vs marketOdds
  • 1Bijan Robinsonmodel's #1ATL · RBoverpriced — value at -144 or better59% model · 70% market-233at build
  • 2Derrick HenryBAL · RBoverpriced — value at -104 or better51% model · 60% market-152at build
  • 3Drake LondonATL · WRoverpriced — value at +179 or better36% model · 45% market+124at build
  • 4Zay FlowersJon's pickBAL · WR36% model · 32% market+210at build
  • 5Brian RobinsonATL · RBoverpriced — value at +357 or better22% model · 31% market+225at build
  • 6Kyle PittsATL · TE20% model · 23% market+340at build
  • 7Mark AndrewsBAL · TE18% model · 27% market+270at build
  • 8Jahan DotsonATL · WR17% model · 17% market+490at build
  • 9Devontez WalkerBAL · WR14% model · 9% market+1000at build
  • 10Rashod BatemanBAL · WR13% model · 18% market+450at build
  • 11Matthew HibnerBAL · TElimited data13% model · 12% market+760at build
  • 12Justice HillBAL · RB11% model · 16% market+520at build
  • 13Olamide ZaccheausATL · WR11% model · 10% market+900at build
  • 14Charlie WoernerATL · TE11% model · 6% market+1651at build
  • 15Austin HooperATL · TE10% model · 13% market+700at build
  • 16Elijah SarrattBAL · WRlimited data9% model · 4% market+2199at build
  • 17Tyler HuntleyBAL · QB9% model · 20% market+400at build
  • 18Michael Penix Jr.ATL · QB9% model · 7% market+1301at build
  • 19Nick VannettBAL · TE8% model · 6% market+1500at build
  • 20Zachariah BranchATL · WR8% model · 9% market+1000at build
  • 21Chris BlairATL · WR7% model · 5% market+2098at build
  • 22Josh CuevasBAL · TElimited data6% model · 6% market+1500at build
  • 23Durham SmytheBAL · TE5% model · 11% market+800at build
  • 24Nick MuseATL · TElimited data4% model · 4% market+2199at build
  • 25LaJohntay WesterBAL · WR4% model · 5% market+1900at build
  • 26Rasheen AliBAL · RB3% model · 3% market+3497at build
  • 27Nate WigginsBAL · CBlimited data1% model · 1% market+11948at build
  • 28Marlon HumphreyBAL · CBlimited data1% model · 1% market+13985at build
  • 29Malaki StarksBAL · SAFlimited data1% model · 1% market+7900at build
  • 30Jaylinn HawkinsBAL · SAFlimited data1% model · 1% market+10889at build
  • 31Kyle HamiltonBAL · SAFlimited data1% model · 1% market+10889at build
  • 32Roquan SmithBAL · ILBlimited data1% model · 1% market+7900at build
  • 33Trenton SimpsonBAL · LBlimited data0% model · 1% market+10889at build
  • 34Nnamdi MadubuikeBAL · DTlimited data0% model · 0% market+30203at build
  • 35Travis JonesBAL · DTlimited data0% model · 0% market+30203at build
First TD scorer market (26)

Ranked by market price. Our model covers anytime TD only, so the model column shows each player's anytime TD probability for context.

Model edge is our calibrated anytime-TD probability minus the market-implied probability from the current price. A positive edge means our model rates the player higher than the market is pricing. Players without a positive edge are not plays at today's prices — however likely they are to score.

Limited data marks players with thin history (rookies, new roles); their probability is shrunk toward a position baseline and should be read cautiously.

Model TD% is a probability, not a prediction of certainty. Odds are the market offers captured when this board was built.

Model nfl_atd-v1r2-20260930

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