Odds, predictions, standings, and expert analysis for every NBA game
Darius Garland
Last: @ Minnesota Timberwolves · Tipped off 8:00 PM ET · this page updates each morning
Points by game
The Edge
Role and usageGarland's profile stands out most on usage rate (98th percentile) and potential assists per game (94th percentile). Latest snapshot 2026-10-30.
Early sample: percentiles among players with 2+ games.
Our pick
Darius Garland under 19.5 points
Read our reasoning
Season avg 21.5 PPG (4 games, very small sample — cite with caution). Historical L10 avg 18.8 (range 11-30), only 4/10 over 19.5 — a 60% under rate in recent history. Season median 20.5 is right at the borderline. vs MIN last season (3g): 19.7p, straddling the number. Market has under at +196 (33.8% implied), a large gap from the 60% L10 under rate — that mispricing is the edge. Risk: MIN -7 game script could force Garland into heavy volume trying to keep LAC competitive, which is an offsetting factor; confidence stays MEDIUM.
Points against the line
Recorded line 29.5 · Points · as of Oct 28
2026-27 season · all games played, playoffs included · game log · through 2026-10-28
Hit rate by situation · 2026-27 · against the recorded line 29.5
home, away, 2+ days rest, in wins and in losses splits have fewer than 10 games this season and are not shown yet.
This season's games only · historical frequency, not a forecast.
Where he scores
40% of his shots come from threes above the break, where he makes 33%, close to the league rate there.
- Restricted area80%▲ 13.8 vs league15% of attempts · 10 FGA · small sample
- Three-pointers34%level with league43% of attempts · 29 FGA
- Mid-range40%level with league8% of attempts · 5 FGA · small sample
- Share of attempts
- FG% above league
- below
- under 20 attempts
Where he shoots from, against the league
- Restricted area15% / 29%8 of 10 · 80% FG against 66% for the league
- Paint (non-restricted)34% / 19%11 of 23 · 48% FG against 44% for the league
- Mid-range8% / 10%2 of 5 · 40% FG against 40% for the league
- Left corner 32% / 6%0 of 1 · 0% FG against 34% for the league
- Right corner 32% / 5%1 of 1 · 100% FG against 34% for the league
- Above-the-break 340% / 31%9 of 27 · 33% FG against 34% for the league
Matchup: @ Minnesota Timberwolves
Minnesota Timberwolves defense
Who guards him, then team ratings and what they allow to guards.
Who guards him
Last season (2025-26): no defender on this roster has guarded him for 5+ partial possessions this season yet. Donte DiVincenzo has guarded him most: 54.8 partial possessions, 9 points on 4 of 8.
2025-26 matchups · roster as of Oct 30 · defender ratings as of Oct 30. Tough, average or soft is the defender's own FG% allowed against the league (top, middle or bottom third), shown only for defenders in the league ranking.
Team defense
Minnesota Timberwolves: the 2nd-best defense at an average pace; about average against guards on points.
Allowed-to-guards figures use 2025-26 (last season), 344 guard-games against MIN · team ratings over 5 games, snapshot 2026-10-30.
3 meetings on record: 19.7 points, 0.7 rebounds, 6.7 assists per game (last on Mar 11). The vs MIN window above shows each game.
MIN injury report · Oct 30
- Anthony Edwards · Out
Lineup context
Team ratings with him on and off the floor, then points per game with and without his top teammates by minutes.
On and off
The team is 46.4 points per 100 possessions worse with him on the floor (small sample: under 100 minutes on one side).
- Net rating
Offensive and defensive rating
- Offensive rating
- Defensive rating (lower is better)
Points per 100 possessions · 3 games · as of Oct 26.
With and without teammates
Fewer than 5 games with LAC this season, so last season (2025-26) is used.
- Kris Dunnsmall sample without
- Brook Lopezsmall sample without
- Derrick Jones Jr.small sample without
Teammate availability from the injury report as of Oct 30.
Game log & career
Data availability
Coverage dates show how far the available figures extend.
Available
Observations through 2026-10-30.
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Observations through 2026-10-30.
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Observations through 2026-10-30.
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Observations through 2026-10-28.
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Observations through 2026-10-28.
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Observations through 2026-10-30.
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Observations through 2026-10-28.
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Observations through 2026-10-28.
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Observations through 2026-10-30.
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Observations through 2026-10-26.
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Observations through 2026-10-30.
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Observations through 2026-10-28.
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Observations through 2026-10-28.
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Observations through 2026-10-30.
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Observations through 2026-10-28.
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Observations through 2026-10-30.
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Observations through 2026-10-30.
