Odds, predictions, standings, and expert analysis for every NBA game
Kevin Durant
Last: @ Dallas Mavericks · Tipped off 8:00 PM ET · this page updates each morning
Points by game
The Edge
Role and usageDurant's profile stands out most on true shooting (90th percentile) and potential assists per game (83rd percentile). Latest snapshot 2026-10-30.
Early sample: percentiles among players with 2+ games.
Our pick
Kevin Durant over 23.5 points
Read our reasoning
Durant averages 22.4 PPG this season (5g, small sample) but vsDAL (5g last 2026-10-21) he has averaged 25.0 PPG at 48.0 FG% — his best matchup data in the available record. L10: 5/10 over (avg 25.2, median 25), L20: 12/20. USG% 23.3% and TS% 69.9% support elite efficiency. Under total is LOW confidence and HOU favored by -5.5 means Durant plays full 34+ minutes. Main caveat: L10 5/10 is exactly coin-flip territory; vsDAL scoring history is the differentiating factor.
Points against the line
Recorded line 23.5 · Points · as of Oct 28
2026-27 season · all games played, playoffs included · game log · through 2026-10-28
Hit rate by situation · 2026-27 · against the recorded line 23.5
home, away, back-to-back and in wins splits have fewer than 10 games this season and are not shown yet.
This season's games only · historical frequency, not a forecast.
Where he scores
30% of his shots come from the paint outside the restricted area, where he makes 37%, 7.6 percentage points below the league rate there (19 attempts so far).
- Restricted area90%▲ 23.8 vs league16% of attempts · 10 FGA · small sample
- Three-pointers50%▲ 15.7 vs league32% of attempts · 20 FGA
- Mid-range57%▲ 17.1 vs league22% of attempts · 14 FGA · small sample
- Share of attempts
- FG% above league
- below
- under 20 attempts
Where he shoots from, against the league
- Restricted area16% / 29%9 of 10 · 90% FG against 66% for the league
- Paint (non-restricted)30% / 19%7 of 19 · 37% FG against 44% for the league
- Mid-range22% / 10%8 of 14 · 57% FG against 40% for the league
- Left corner 33% / 6%1 of 2 · 50% FG against 34% for the league
- Right corner 36% / 5%1 of 4 · 25% FG against 34% for the league
- Above-the-break 322% / 31%8 of 14 · 57% FG against 34% for the league
Distance buckets and the period split are not available: this player's shots for this season are not in our shot chart yet.
Matchup: @ Dallas Mavericks
Dallas Mavericks defense
Who guards him, then team ratings and what they allow to forwards.
Who guards him
Cooper Flagg has guarded him most: 20.4 partial possessions, 7 points on 3 of 5.
2026-27 matchups · roster as of Oct 30 · defender ratings as of Oct 30. Tough, average or soft is the defender's own FG% allowed against the league (top, middle or bottom third), shown only for defenders in the league ranking.
Team defense
Dallas Mavericks: the 15th-best defense at an average pace; about average against forwards on points.
Allowed-to-forwards figures use 2025-26 (last season), 260 forward-games against DAL · team ratings over 5 games, snapshot 2026-10-30.
5 meetings on record: 25.0 points, 4.6 rebounds, 5.2 assists per game (last on Oct 21). The vs DAL window above shows each game.
DAL injury report · Oct 30
- Tarik Biberovic · Out
- Santi Aldama · Out
- Sergio de Larrea · Out
- Dereck Lively II · Out
- Naji Marshall · Day-to-day
Lineup context
Team ratings with him on and off the floor, then points per game with and without his top teammates by minutes.
On and off
The team is 21.7 points per 100 possessions better with him on the floor (small sample: under 100 minutes on one side).
- Net rating
Offensive and defensive rating
- Offensive rating
- Defensive rating (lower is better)
Points per 100 possessions · 3 games · as of Oct 26.
With and without teammates
- Jabari Smith Jr.small sample without
- Amen Thompsonsmall sample without
Teammate availability from the injury report as of Oct 30.
Game log & career
Data availability
Coverage dates show how far the available figures extend.
Available
Observations through 2026-10-30.
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Observations through 2026-10-30.
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Observations through 2026-10-28.
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Observations through 2026-10-26.
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Observations through 2026-10-28.
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Observations through 2026-10-30.
