Odds, predictions, standings, and expert analysis for every NBA game
Collin Sexton
Last: @ Golden State Warriors · Tipped off 10:00 PM ET · this page updates each morning
Points by game
The Edge
Role and usageSexton's profile stands out most on usage rate (95th percentile) and true shooting (39th percentile). Latest snapshot 2026-10-30.
Early sample: percentiles among players with 2+ games.
Our pick
Collin Sexton over 11.5 points
Read our reasoning
Sexton has cleared 11.5 points in 8 of his last 10 games (L10 avg 15.8, range 5-27, season median 18.5). The 11.5 line sits well below his L20 avg of 18.3 and his vsGSW sample last season (2g, Jan 2026 — treat as dated) showed 16.5 PPG at 48.8% FG. His 29.7% USG% within his minutes is the highest on LAL's bench rotation, and at -120 odds on an 8/10 L10 hit rate this is clear value. If Doncic (Day-To-Day, back) misses this game, Sexton's bench minutes and usage rise further. Early-season caveat: Sexton has played only 4 games this season, so lean on the L10/L20 historical record.
Points against the line
Recorded line 11.5 · Points · as of Oct 28
2026-27 season · all games played, playoffs included · game log · through 2026-10-28
Hit rate by situation · 2026-27 · against the recorded line 11.5
home, away, back-to-back, in wins and in losses splits have fewer than 10 games this season and are not shown yet.
This season's games only · historical frequency, not a forecast.
Where he scores
41% of his shots come from threes above the break, where he makes 25%, 9.3 percentage points below the league rate there (16 attempts so far).
- Restricted area100%▲ 33.8 vs league15% of attempts · 6 FGA · small sample
- Three-pointers30%▼ 4.3 vs league51% of attempts · 20 FGA
- Mid-range25%▼ 15.0 vs league10% of attempts · 4 FGA · small sample
- Share of attempts
- FG% above league
- below
- under 20 attempts
Where he shoots from, against the league
- Restricted area15% / 29%6 of 6 · 100% FG against 66% for the league
- Paint (non-restricted)23% / 19%4 of 9 · 44% FG against 44% for the league
- Mid-range10% / 10%1 of 4 · 25% FG against 40% for the league
- Left corner 38% / 6%2 of 3 · 67% FG against 34% for the league
- Right corner 33% / 5%0 of 1 · 0% FG against 34% for the league
- Above-the-break 341% / 31%4 of 16 · 25% FG against 34% for the league
Matchup: @ Golden State Warriors
Golden State Warriors defense
Who guards him, then team ratings and what they allow to guards.
Who guards him
Last season (2025-26): no defender on this roster has guarded him for 5+ partial possessions this season yet. Stephen Curry has guarded him most: 20.1 partial possessions, 1 point on 0 of 1.
- Moses MoodyG
2025-26 matchups · roster as of Oct 30 · defender ratings as of Oct 30. Tough, average or soft is the defender's own FG% allowed against the league (top, middle or bottom third), shown only for defenders in the league ranking.
Team defense
Golden State Warriors: the 27th-best defense at an average pace; about average against guards on points.
Allowed-to-guards figures use 2025-26 (last season), 346 guard-games against GS · team ratings over 5 games, snapshot 2026-10-30.
2 meetings on record: 16.5 points, 4.0 rebounds, 5.5 assists per game (last on Jan 17). The vs GS window above shows each game.
GS injury report · Oct 30
- Kristaps Porziņģis · Out
- Gui Santos · Day-to-day
Lineup context
Team ratings with him on and off the floor.
On and off
The team is 27.0 points per 100 possessions worse with him on the floor (small sample: under 100 minutes on one side).
- Net rating
Offensive and defensive rating
- Offensive rating
- Defensive rating (lower is better)
Points per 100 possessions · 2 games · as of Oct 26.
Game log & career
Data availability
Coverage dates show how far the available figures extend.
Available
Observations through 2026-10-30.
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Observations through 2026-10-30.
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Observations through 2026-10-28.
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Observations through 2026-10-28.
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Observations through 2026-10-30.
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Observations through 2026-10-28.
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Observations through 2026-10-30.
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Observations through 2026-10-26.
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Observations through 2026-10-30.
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Observations through 2026-10-28.
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Observations through 2026-10-28.
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Observations through 2026-10-30.
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Observations through 2026-10-28.
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Observations through 2026-10-30.
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Observations through 2026-10-30.
