Odds, predictions, standings, and expert analysis for every NBA game
Stephen Curry
Last: vs Los Angeles Lakers · Tipped off 10:00 PM ET · this page updates each morning
Injury report: Out · Oct 26
Points by game
The Edge
Role and usageCurry's profile stands out most on usage rate (99th percentile) and true shooting (91st percentile). Latest snapshot 2026-10-30.
Early sample: percentiles among players with 2+ games.
Our pick
Stephen Curry under 29.5 points
Read our reasoning
Curry has cleared 29.5 points in only 2 of his last 10 games (L10 avg 24.8, range 11-44, season median 24). His vsLAL sample this season (2g, last Oct 21) shows 23.0 PPG against this defense. At 27.3 MPG — a managed minutes load — his per-game ceiling is structurally capped relative to prior seasons. The Main Committee projects LAL winning and controlling the game flow, which compresses GSW's offensive possessions and Curry's volume. GSW's early-season ORTG of 115.7 ranks 6th but their 2-3 record suggests inconsistency. The -312 juice is steep, but 8/10 L10 under rate supports the lean. Note: small current-season sample of 4 games.
Points against the line
Recorded line 29.5 · Points · as of Oct 28
2026-27 season · all games played, playoffs included · game log · through 2026-10-28
Hit rate by situation · 2026-27 · against the recorded line 29.5
home, away, in wins and in losses splits have fewer than 10 games this season and are not shown yet.
This season's games only · historical frequency, not a forecast.
Where he scores
48% of his shots come from threes above the break, where he makes 39%, 4.4 percentage points above the league rate there.
- Restricted area67%level with league19% of attempts · 12 FGA · small sample
- Three-pointers39%▲ 4.6 vs league55% of attempts · 36 FGA
- Mid-range56%▲ 15.5 vs league14% of attempts · 9 FGA · small sample
- Share of attempts
- FG% above league
- below
- under 20 attempts
Where he shoots from, against the league
- Restricted area19% / 29%8 of 12 · 67% FG against 66% for the league
- Paint (non-restricted)12% / 19%4 of 8 · 50% FG against 44% for the league
- Mid-range14% / 10%5 of 9 · 56% FG against 40% for the league
- Left corner 33% / 6%1 of 2 · 50% FG against 34% for the league
- Right corner 35% / 5%1 of 3 · 33% FG against 34% for the league
- Above-the-break 348% / 31%12 of 31 · 39% FG against 34% for the league
Distance buckets and the period split are not available: this player's shots for this season are not in our shot chart yet.
Matchup: vs Los Angeles Lakers
Los Angeles Lakers defense
Who guards him, then team ratings and what they allow to guards.
Who guards him
Matisse Thybulle has guarded him most: 13.2 partial possessions, 4 points on 1 of 1.
2026-27 matchups · roster as of Oct 30 · defender ratings as of Oct 30. Tough, average or soft is the defender's own FG% allowed against the league (top, middle or bottom third), shown only for defenders in the league ranking.
Team defense
Los Angeles Lakers: the 17th-best defense at an average pace; about average against guards on points.
Allowed-to-guards figures use 2025-26 (last season), 341 guard-games against LAL · team ratings over 5 games, snapshot 2026-10-30.
2 meetings on record: 23.0 points, 1.5 rebounds, 2.5 assists per game (last on Oct 21). The vs LAL window above shows each game.
LAL injury report · Oct 30
- Cameron Carr · Out
- Adou Thiero · Out
- Luka Dončić · Day-to-day
- Ziaire Williams · Day-to-day
Lineup context
Team ratings with him on and off the floor, then points per game with and without his top teammates by minutes.
On and off
The team is 24.2 points per 100 possessions worse with him on the floor (small sample: under 100 minutes on one side).
- Net rating
Offensive and defensive rating
- Offensive rating
- Defensive rating (lower is better)
Points per 100 possessions · 2 games · as of Oct 26.
With and without teammates
Fewer than 5 games with GS this season, so last season (2025-26) is used.
- Brandin Podziemskismall sample without
- Moses Moody
Teammate availability from the injury report as of Oct 30.
Game log & career
Data availability
Coverage dates show how far the available figures extend.
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Observations through 2026-10-30.
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Observations through 2026-10-30.
