Odds, predictions, standings, and expert analysis for every NBA game
Jayson Tatum
Last: vs Chicago Bulls · Tipped off 7:30 PM ET · this page updates each morning
Points by game
The Edge
Role and usageTatum's profile stands out most on usage rate (98th percentile) and potential assists per game (98th percentile). Latest snapshot 2026-10-30.
Early sample: percentiles among players with 2+ games.
Our pick
Jayson Tatum over 5.5 assists
Read our reasoning
Strongest historical signal in the slate: L10 8/10 over 5.5 (80% hit rate), L20 14/20 (70%), season median 7. Current-season 8.0 APG is a 4-game small sample but aligns with the longer-term rate. AST% of 39.0% is elite and 14.3 drives per game generate consistent drop-off assist opportunities. vsCHI (1g this season): 6 assists. CHI's defense ranks #29 in DRTG (121.7) — collapsing on Tatum in the paint opens cutters and kick-outs. Note: early exit in a blowout is the primary risk.
Points against the line
Hypothetical threshold · no verified market line: 29.5
2026-27 season · all games played, playoffs included · game log · through 2026-10-27
Hit rate by situation · 2026-27 · against the season median 29.5
home, away, back-to-back, 2+ days rest, in wins and in losses splits have fewer than 10 games this season and are not shown yet.
This season's games only · historical frequency, not a forecast.
Where he scores
30% of his shots come from threes above the break, where he makes 23%, 11.2 percentage points below the league rate there.
- Restricted area74%▲ 7.5 vs league22% of attempts · 19 FGA · small sample
- Three-pointers24%▼ 10.1 vs league34% of attempts · 29 FGA
- Mid-range45%▲ 5.0 vs league23% of attempts · 20 FGA
- Share of attempts
- FG% above league
- below
- under 20 attempts
Where he shoots from, against the league
- Restricted area22% / 29%14 of 19 · 74% FG against 66% for the league
- Paint (non-restricted)21% / 19%7 of 18 · 39% FG against 44% for the league
- Mid-range23% / 10%9 of 20 · 45% FG against 40% for the league
- Left corner 32% / 6%0 of 2 · 0% FG against 34% for the league
- Right corner 31% / 5%1 of 1 · 100% FG against 34% for the league
- Above-the-break 330% / 31%6 of 26 · 23% FG against 34% for the league
Distance buckets and the period split are not available: this player's shots for this season are not in our shot chart yet.
Matchup: vs Chicago Bulls
Chicago Bulls defense
Who guards him, then team ratings and what they allow to forwards.
Who guards him
No Chicago Bulls defender on the current roster has guarded him for 5+ partial possessions this season or last.
Team defense
Chicago Bulls: the 29th-best defense at a fast pace; generous against forwards on points.
Allowed-to-forwards figures use 2025-26 (last season), 239 forward-games against CHI · team ratings over 5 games, snapshot 2026-10-30.
1 meeting on record: 23.0 points, 7.0 rebounds, 6.0 assists per game (last on Oct 26). The vs CHI window above shows each game.
CHI injury report · Oct 30
- Patrick Williams · Out
- Nic Claxton · Out
- Jalen Smith · Day-to-day
- Tobe Awaka · Day-to-day
Lineup context
Team ratings with him on and off the floor, then points per game with and without his top teammates by minutes.
On and off
The team is 4.8 points per 100 possessions worse with him on the floor (small sample: under 100 minutes on one side).
- Net rating
Offensive and defensive rating
- Offensive rating
- Defensive rating (lower is better)
Points per 100 possessions · 2 games · as of Oct 26.
With and without teammates
Fewer than 5 games with BOS this season, so last season (2025-26) is used.
- Derrick Whitesmall sample without
- Payton Pritchardsmall sample without
- Sam Hausersmall sample without
Teammate availability from the injury report as of Oct 30.
Game log & career
Data availability
Coverage dates show how far the available figures extend.
Available
Observations through 2026-10-30.
Available
Observations through 2026-10-30.
Available
Observations through 2026-10-27.
Available
Observations through 2026-10-27.
Available
Observations through 2026-10-30.
Available
Observations through 2026-10-27.
Available
Observations through 2026-10-27.
Available
Observations through 2026-10-30.
Available
Observations through 2026-10-26.
Available
Observations through 2026-10-30.
Available
Observations through 2026-10-27.
Available
Observations through 2026-10-27.
Available
Observations through 2026-10-30.
Available
Observations through 2026-10-27.
Available
Observations through 2026-10-30.
Available
Observations through 2026-10-30.
