Odds, predictions, standings, and expert analysis for every NBA game
Wendell Carter Jr.
Last: @ Toronto Raptors · Tipped off 7:30 PM ET · this page updates each morning
Points by game
The Edge
Role and usageJr.'s profile stands out most on true shooting (99th percentile) and rebound chances per game (98th percentile). Latest snapshot 2026-10-30.
Early sample: percentiles among players with 2+ games.
Our pick
Wendell Carter Jr. under 8.5 rebounds
Read our reasoning
Carter Jr. is averaging 9.0 RPG this season (4 games — small sample) but vsTOR in 4 games (last 2026-10-28) he grabbed only 6.8 RPG. Historical data: season median 6.5 rebounds, L10 avg 7.8, and only 5/10 L10 over 8.5. TOR ranked #1 defense allows fewest second-chance opportunities; their rebounding structure limits opposing bigs. The gap between Carter's early-season average and his historical median and vsTOR production makes under 8.5 the value side.
Points against the line
Recorded line 11.5 · Points · as of Oct 28
2026-27 season · all games played, playoffs included · game log · through 2026-10-28
Hit rate by situation · 2026-27 · against the recorded line 11.5
home, away, 2+ days rest, in wins and in losses splits have fewer than 10 games this season and are not shown yet.
This season's games only · historical frequency, not a forecast.
Where he scores
45% of his shots come from the restricted area, where he makes 100%, 33.8 percentage points above the league rate there (13 attempts so far).
- Restricted area100%▲ 33.8 vs league45% of attempts · 13 FGA · small sample
- Three-pointers40%▲ 5.7 vs league34% of attempts · 10 FGA · small sample
- Mid-range50%▲ 10.0 vs league14% of attempts · 4 FGA · small sample
- Share of attempts
- FG% above league
- below
- under 20 attempts
Where he shoots from, against the league
- Restricted area45% / 29%13 of 13 · 100% FG against 66% for the league
- Paint (non-restricted)7% / 19%1 of 2 · 50% FG against 44% for the league
- Mid-range14% / 10%2 of 4 · 50% FG against 40% for the league
- Left corner 30% / 6%No attempts · league 34% FG
- Right corner 310% / 5%1 of 3 · 33% FG against 34% for the league
- Above-the-break 324% / 31%3 of 7 · 43% FG against 34% for the league
Matchup: @ Toronto Raptors
Toronto Raptors defense
Who guards him, then team ratings and what they allow to centers.
Who guards him
Last season (2025-26): no defender on this roster has guarded him for 5+ partial possessions this season yet. Collin Murray-Boyles has guarded him most: 39.8 partial possessions, 11 points on 5 of 8.
2025-26 matchups · roster as of Oct 30 · defender ratings as of Oct 30. Tough, average or soft is the defender's own FG% allowed against the league (top, middle or bottom third), shown only for defenders in the league ranking.
Team defense
Toronto Raptors: the 1st-best defense at a fast pace; stingy against centers on points.
Allowed-to-centers figures use 2025-26 (last season), 115 center-games against TOR · team ratings over 4 games, snapshot 2026-10-30.
4 meetings on record: 9.8 points, 6.8 rebounds, 2.3 assists per game (last on Oct 28). The vs TOR window above shows each game.
TOR injury report · Oct 30
- Kawhi Leonard · Out
- Nate Bittle · Out
Lineup context
Team ratings with him on and off the floor, then points per game with and without his top teammates by minutes.
On and off
The team is 5.5 points per 100 possessions better with him on the floor (small sample: under 100 minutes on one side).
- Net rating
Offensive and defensive rating
- Offensive rating
- Defensive rating (lower is better)
Points per 100 possessions · 3 games · as of Oct 26.
With and without teammates
Fewer than 5 games with ORL this season, so last season (2025-26) is used.
- Desmond Banesmall sample without
Teammate availability from the injury report as of Oct 30.
Game log & career
Data availability
Coverage dates show how far the available figures extend.
Available
Observations through 2026-10-30.
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Observations through 2026-10-30.
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Observations through 2026-10-30.
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Observations through 2026-10-28.
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Observations through 2026-10-28.
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Observations through 2026-10-28.
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Observations through 2026-10-28.
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Observations through 2026-10-26.
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Observations through 2026-10-30.
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Observations through 2026-10-28.
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Observations through 2026-10-28.
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Observations through 2026-10-30.
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Observations through 2026-10-28.
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Observations through 2026-10-30.
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Observations through 2026-10-30.
