Odds, predictions, standings, and expert analysis for every NBA game
Chet Holmgren
Last: @ Houston Rockets · Tipped off 8:30 PM ET · this page updates each morning
Points by game
The Edge
Role and usageHolmgren's profile stands out most on rebound chances per game (95th percentile) and potential assists per game (49th percentile). Latest snapshot 2026-10-30.
Early sample: percentiles among players with 2+ games.
Our pick
No active pick on Chet Holmgren.
Our graded record on him: 4-2-0 · see every pick below.
Points against the line
Hypothetical threshold · no verified market line: 12.5
2026-27 season · all games played, playoffs included · game log · through 2026-10-25
Hit rate by situation · 2026-27 · against the season median 12.5
home, away, 2+ days rest and in wins splits have fewer than 10 games this season and are not shown yet.
This season's games only · historical frequency, not a forecast.
Where he scores
56% of his shots come from the restricted area, where he makes 60%, 6.2 percentage points below the league rate there (15 attempts so far).
- Restricted area60%▼ 6.2 vs league56% of attempts · 15 FGA · small sample
- Three-pointers33%level with league22% of attempts · 6 FGA · small sample
- Mid-range0%▼ 40.0 vs league7% of attempts · 2 FGA · small sample
- Share of attempts
- FG% above league
- below
- under 20 attempts
Where he shoots from, against the league
- Restricted area56% / 29%9 of 15 · 60% FG against 66% for the league
- Paint (non-restricted)15% / 19%0 of 4 · 0% FG against 44% for the league
- Mid-range7% / 10%0 of 2 · 0% FG against 40% for the league
- Left corner 37% / 6%0 of 2 · 0% FG against 34% for the league
- Right corner 34% / 5%0 of 1 · 0% FG against 34% for the league
- Above-the-break 311% / 31%2 of 3 · 67% FG against 34% for the league
Matchup: @ Houston Rockets
Houston Rockets defense
Who guards him, then team ratings and what they allow to centers.
Who guards him
Last season (2025-26): no defender on this roster has guarded him for 5+ partial possessions this season yet. Jabari Smith Jr. has guarded him most: 46.9 partial possessions, 15 points on 5 of 7.
2025-26 matchups · roster as of Oct 30 · defender ratings as of Oct 30. Tough, average or soft is the defender's own FG% allowed against the league (top, middle or bottom third), shown only for defenders in the league ranking.
Team defense
Houston Rockets: the 9th-best defense at an average pace; about average against centers on points.
Allowed-to-centers figures use 2025-26 (last season), 112 center-games against HOU · team ratings over 5 games, snapshot 2026-10-30.
3 meetings on record: 21.0 points, 10.0 rebounds, 1.0 assists per game (last on Feb 7). The vs HOU window above shows each game.
HOU injury report · Oct 30
- Reed Sheppard · Out
- Marcus Smart · Out
- Steven Adams · Out
- Alperen Sengun · Day-to-day
Lineup context
Team ratings with him on and off the floor, then points per game with and without his top teammates by minutes.
On and off
The team is 15.9 points per 100 possessions worse with him on the floor (small sample: under 100 minutes on one side).
- Net rating
Offensive and defensive rating
- Offensive rating
- Defensive rating (lower is better)
Points per 100 possessions · 3 games · as of Oct 26.
With and without teammates
Fewer than 5 games with OKC this season, so last season (2025-26) is used.
Teammate availability from the injury report as of Oct 30.
Game log & career
Data availability
Coverage dates show how far the available figures extend.
Available
Observations through 2026-10-30.
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Observations through 2026-10-30.
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Observations through 2026-10-28.
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Observations through 2026-10-25.
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Observations through 2026-10-25.
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Observations through 2026-10-30.
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Observations through 2026-10-25.
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Observations through 2026-10-25.
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Observations through 2026-10-30.
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Observations through 2026-10-26.
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Observations through 2026-10-22.
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Observations through 2026-10-25.
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Observations through 2026-10-25.
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Observations through 2026-10-30.
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Observations through 2026-10-25.
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Observations through 2026-10-30.
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Observations through 2026-10-30.
