Odds, predictions, standings, and expert analysis for every NBA game
Giannis Antetokounmpo
Last: vs Indiana Pacers · Tipped off 8:00 PM ET · this page updates each morning
Points by game
The Edge
Role and usageAntetokounmpo's profile stands out most on rebound chances per game (98th percentile) and usage rate (97th percentile). Latest snapshot 2026-10-30.
Early sample: percentiles among players with 2+ games.
Our pick
Giannis Antetokounmpo under 11.5 rebounds
Read our reasoning
Giannis averages 11.2 RPG this season (5-game small sample), and the L10 Over rate for 11.5 rebounds is only 4/10, L20 is 7/20, with a season median of 9.5. The broader distribution sits clearly below this line. Last season vs IND in 2 games he grabbed 13.5 RPG, which confirms upside exists, but that 2-game sample is too thin to override the L10/L20 signal. Under game total context limits total possessions. Under 11.5 at -103 is the best value on the board — essentially a pick'em price on a player the data says misses this line 55-60% of the time.
Points against the line
Recorded line 30.5 · Points · as of Oct 28
2026-27 season · all games played, playoffs included · game log · through 2026-10-28
Hit rate by situation · 2026-27 · against the recorded line 30.5
home, away, back-to-back, in wins and in losses splits have fewer than 10 games this season and are not shown yet.
This season's games only · historical frequency, not a forecast.
Where he scores
55% of his shots come from the restricted area, where he makes 66%, close to the league rate there.
- Restricted area66%level with league55% of attempts · 53 FGA
- Three-pointers25%▼ 9.3 vs league12% of attempts · 12 FGA · small sample
- Mid-range33%▼ 6.7 vs league12% of attempts · 12 FGA · small sample
- Share of attempts
- FG% above league
- below
- under 20 attempts
Where he shoots from, against the league
- Restricted area55% / 29%35 of 53 · 66% FG against 66% for the league
- Paint (non-restricted)21% / 19%13 of 20 · 65% FG against 44% for the league
- Mid-range12% / 10%4 of 12 · 33% FG against 40% for the league
- Left corner 30% / 6%No attempts · league 34% FG
- Right corner 30% / 5%No attempts · league 34% FG
- Above-the-break 312% / 31%3 of 12 · 25% FG against 34% for the league
Distance buckets and the period split are not available: this player's shots for this season are not in our shot chart yet.
Matchup: vs Indiana Pacers
Indiana Pacers defense
Who guards him, then team ratings and what they allow to forwards.
Who guards him
Last season (2025-26): no defender on this roster has guarded him for 5+ partial possessions this season yet. Pascal Siakam has guarded him most: 43.3 partial possessions, 14 points on 6 of 9.
2025-26 matchups · roster as of Oct 30 · defender ratings as of Oct 30. Tough, average or soft is the defender's own FG% allowed against the league (top, middle or bottom third), shown only for defenders in the league ranking.
Team defense
Indiana Pacers: the 12th-best defense at an average pace; about average against forwards on points.
Allowed-to-forwards figures use 2025-26 (last season), 257 forward-games against IND · team ratings over 5 games, snapshot 2026-10-30.
2 meetings on record: 32.0 points, 13.5 rebounds, 6.5 assists per game (last on Mar 15). The vs IND window above shows each game.
IND injury report · Oct 30
- Ivica Zubac · Out
- T.J. McConnell · Out
- Ben Sheppard · Out
- Tyrese Haliburton · Out
- Andrew Nembhard · Day-to-day
- Aaron Nesmith · Day-to-day
Lineup context
Team ratings with him on and off the floor, then points per game with and without his top teammates by minutes.
On and off
The team is 36.2 points per 100 possessions worse with him on the floor (small sample: under 100 minutes on one side).
- Net rating
Offensive and defensive rating
- Offensive rating
- Defensive rating (lower is better)
Points per 100 possessions · 3 games · as of Oct 26.
With and without teammates
- Davion Mitchellsmall sample without
- Bam Adebayosmall sample without
- Pelle Larssonsmall sample without
Teammate availability from the injury report as of Oct 30.
Game log & career
Data availability
Coverage dates show how far the available figures extend.
Available
Observations through 2026-10-30.
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Observations through 2026-10-30.
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Observations through 2026-10-30.
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Observations through 2026-10-28.
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Observations through 2026-10-28.
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Observations through 2026-10-28.
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Observations through 2026-10-28.
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Observations through 2026-10-26.
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Observations through 2026-10-30.
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Observations through 2026-10-28.
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Observations through 2026-10-28.
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Observations through 2026-10-30.
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Observations through 2026-10-28.
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Observations through 2026-10-30.
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Observations through 2026-10-30.
