Odds, predictions, standings, and expert analysis for every NBA game
Michael Porter Jr.
Last: vs Detroit Pistons · Tipped off 7:30 PM ET · this page updates each morning
Points by game
The Edge
Role and usageJr.'s profile stands out most on usage rate (89th percentile) and rebound chances per game (86th percentile). Latest snapshot 2026-10-30.
Early sample: percentiles among players with 2+ games.
Our pick
Michael Porter Jr. over 19.5 points
Read our reasoning
L10 over 6/10 (avg 22.0, range 9-30), L20 over 13/20, season avg 22.8 PPG. vs DET last season (3g): 25.7 PPG — his best historical matchup context available. 40.5% from three on 9.3 attempts with C&S 3P% of 45.8%; DET tends to sag on non-ball-handlers, leaving MPJ open in catch-and-shoot spots. USG% 26.3%. Main risk: DET's defense rates #5 (105.5 DRTG) and the game total is under 222.5, which caps volume. Under total pick is LOW confidence so scoring edge still viable at MEDIUM.
Points against the line
Recorded line 20.5 · Points · as of Oct 27
2026-27 season · all games played, playoffs included · game log · through 2026-10-27
Hit rate by situation · 2026-27 · against the recorded line 20.5
home, away, back-to-back, 2+ days rest and in losses splits have fewer than 10 games this season and are not shown yet.
This season's games only · historical frequency, not a forecast.
Where he scores
47% of his shots come from threes above the break, where he makes 44%, 9.5 percentage points above the league rate there.
- Restricted area71%▲ 4.4 vs league25% of attempts · 17 FGA · small sample
- Three-pointers41%▲ 6.3 vs league54% of attempts · 37 FGA
- Mid-range29%▼ 11.5 vs league10% of attempts · 7 FGA · small sample
- Share of attempts
- FG% above league
- below
- under 20 attempts
Where he shoots from, against the league
- Restricted area25% / 29%12 of 17 · 71% FG against 66% for the league
- Paint (non-restricted)10% / 19%3 of 7 · 43% FG against 44% for the league
- Mid-range10% / 10%2 of 7 · 29% FG against 40% for the league
- Left corner 33% / 6%0 of 2 · 0% FG against 34% for the league
- Right corner 34% / 5%1 of 3 · 33% FG against 34% for the league
- Above-the-break 347% / 31%14 of 32 · 44% FG against 34% for the league
Matchup: vs Detroit Pistons
Detroit Pistons defense
Who guards him, then team ratings and what they allow to forwards.
Who guards him
Last season (2025-26): no defender on this roster has guarded him for 5+ partial possessions this season yet. Duncan Robinson has guarded him most: 46.6 partial possessions, 21 points on 7 of 15.
2025-26 matchups · roster as of Oct 30 · defender ratings as of Oct 30. Tough, average or soft is the defender's own FG% allowed against the league (top, middle or bottom third), shown only for defenders in the league ranking.
Team defense
Detroit Pistons: the 5th-best defense at a slow pace; about average against forwards on points.
Allowed-to-forwards figures use 2025-26 (last season), 238 forward-games against DET · team ratings over 5 games, snapshot 2026-10-30.
3 meetings on record: 25.7 points, 6.7 rebounds, 1.3 assists per game (last on Mar 10). The vs DET window above shows each game.
DET injury report · Oct 30
- Jalen Duren · Out
- Isaiah Joe · Day-to-day
Lineup context
Team ratings with him on and off the floor, then points per game with and without his top teammates by minutes.
On and off
The team is 16.2 points per 100 possessions better with him on the floor (small sample: under 100 minutes on one side).
- Net rating
Offensive and defensive rating
- Offensive rating
- Defensive rating (lower is better)
Points per 100 possessions · 3 games · as of Oct 26.
With and without teammates
Fewer than 5 games with BKN this season, so last season (2025-26) is used.
Teammate availability from the injury report as of Oct 30.
Game log & career
Data availability
Coverage dates show how far the available figures extend.
Available
Observations through 2026-10-30.
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Observations through 2026-10-30.
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Observations through 2026-10-30.
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Observations through 2026-10-27.
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Observations through 2026-10-27.
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Observations through 2026-10-27.
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Observations through 2026-10-27.
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Observations through 2026-10-26.
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Observations through 2026-10-27.
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Observations through 2026-10-30.
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Observations through 2026-10-30.
