Odds, predictions, standings, and expert analysis for every NBA game
Pascal Siakam
Last: @ Miami Heat · Tipped off 8:00 PM ET · this page updates each morning
Points by game
The Edge
Role and usageSiakam's profile stands out most on usage rate (94th percentile) and rebound chances per game (86th percentile). Latest snapshot 2026-10-30.
Early sample: percentiles among players with 2+ games.
Our pick
Pascal Siakam over 19.5 points
Read our reasoning
Siakam is averaging 24.0 PPG this season (5-game sample, small) with 28.8% USG and 61.4% TS. The L10 hit rate for Over 19.5 is 9/10, L20 is 16/20, season median 25.5. Last season vs MIA in 3 games he averaged 24.7 PPG. The broader data record is as consistent as it gets at this line. Downgraded from HIGH to MEDIUM because the main committee pick is Under 236.5 — individual scoring can still pop in a lower-total game but the context warrants caution. The -357 price reflects the market's confidence; the bet is on statistical edge, not price value.
Points against the line
Recorded line 24.5 · Points · as of Oct 28
2026-27 season · all games played, playoffs included · game log · through 2026-10-28
Hit rate by situation · 2026-27 · against the recorded line 24.5
home, away, back-to-back, in wins and in losses splits have fewer than 10 games this season and are not shown yet.
This season's games only · historical frequency, not a forecast.
Where he scores
32% of his shots come from the restricted area, where he makes 74%, 7.9 percentage points above the league rate there.
- Restricted area74%▲ 7.9 vs league32% of attempts · 27 FGA
- Three-pointers38%▲ 3.8 vs league25% of attempts · 21 FGA
- Mid-range46%▲ 6.1 vs league15% of attempts · 13 FGA · small sample
- Share of attempts
- FG% above league
- below
- under 20 attempts
Where he shoots from, against the league
- Restricted area32% / 29%20 of 27 · 74% FG against 66% for the league
- Paint (non-restricted)28% / 19%13 of 24 · 54% FG against 44% for the league
- Mid-range15% / 10%6 of 13 · 46% FG against 40% for the league
- Left corner 34% / 6%1 of 3 · 33% FG against 34% for the league
- Right corner 32% / 5%1 of 2 · 50% FG against 34% for the league
- Above-the-break 319% / 31%6 of 16 · 38% FG against 34% for the league
Matchup: @ Miami Heat
Miami Heat defense
Who guards him, then team ratings and what they allow to forwards.
Who guards him
Last season (2025-26): no defender on this roster has guarded him for 5+ partial possessions this season yet. Andrew Wiggins has guarded him most: 50.3 partial possessions, 18 points on 7 of 15.
2025-26 matchups · roster as of Oct 30 · defender ratings as of Oct 30. Tough, average or soft is the defender's own FG% allowed against the league (top, middle or bottom third), shown only for defenders in the league ranking.
Team defense
Miami Heat: the 25th-best defense at an average pace; about average against forwards on points.
Allowed-to-forwards figures use 2025-26 (last season), 247 forward-games against MIA · team ratings over 5 games, snapshot 2026-10-30.
3 meetings on record: 24.7 points, 8.3 rebounds, 5.3 assists per game (last on Mar 29). The vs MIA window above shows each game.
MIA injury report · Oct 30
- Simone Fontecchio · Day-to-day
Lineup context
Team ratings with him on and off the floor, then points per game with and without his top teammates by minutes.
On and off
The team is 8.8 points per 100 possessions better with him on the floor (small sample: under 100 minutes on one side).
- Net rating
Offensive and defensive rating
- Offensive rating
- Defensive rating (lower is better)
Points per 100 possessions · 3 games · as of Oct 26.
With and without teammates
- Kelly Oubre Jr.small sample without
Teammate availability from the injury report as of Oct 30.
Game log & career
Data availability
Coverage dates show how far the available figures extend.
Available
Observations through 2026-10-30.
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Observations through 2026-10-30.
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Observations through 2026-10-30.
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Observations through 2026-10-28.
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Observations through 2026-10-28.
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Observations through 2026-10-28.
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Observations through 2026-10-28.
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Observations through 2026-10-26.
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Observations through 2026-10-30.
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Observations through 2026-10-28.
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Observations through 2026-10-28.
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Observations through 2026-10-28.
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Observations through 2026-10-30.
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Observations through 2026-10-30.
