Odds, predictions, standings, and expert analysis for every NBA game
Aaron Nesmith
Last: @ Miami Heat · Tipped off 8:00 PM ET · this page updates each morning
Injury report: Day-To-Day · Oct 30
Points by game
The Edge
Role and usageNesmith's profile stands out most on usage rate (86th percentile) and potential assists per game (38th percentile). Latest snapshot 2026-10-30.
Early sample: percentiles among players with 2+ games.
Our pick
No active pick on Aaron Nesmith.
Our graded record on him: 1-0-0 · see every pick below.
Points against the line
Recorded line 13.5 · Points · as of Oct 28
2026-27 season · all games played, playoffs included · game log · through 2026-10-28
Hit rate by situation · 2026-27 · against the recorded line 13.5
home, away, back-to-back, in wins and in losses splits have fewer than 10 games this season and are not shown yet.
This season's games only · historical frequency, not a forecast.
Where he scores
41% of his shots come from threes above the break, where he makes 39%, 4.6 percentage points above the league rate there (18 attempts so far).
- Restricted area43%▼ 23.3 vs league16% of attempts · 7 FGA · small sample
- Three-pointers35%level with league59% of attempts · 26 FGA
- Mid-range33%▼ 6.7 vs league7% of attempts · 3 FGA · small sample
- Share of attempts
- FG% above league
- below
- under 20 attempts
Where he shoots from, against the league
- Restricted area16% / 29%3 of 7 · 43% FG against 66% for the league
- Paint (non-restricted)18% / 19%4 of 8 · 50% FG against 44% for the league
- Mid-range7% / 10%1 of 3 · 33% FG against 40% for the league
- Left corner 37% / 6%1 of 3 · 33% FG against 34% for the league
- Right corner 311% / 5%1 of 5 · 20% FG against 34% for the league
- Above-the-break 341% / 31%7 of 18 · 39% FG against 34% for the league
Matchup: @ Miami Heat
Miami Heat defense
Who guards him, then team ratings and what they allow to guards.
Who guards him
Last season (2025-26): no defender on this roster has guarded him for 5+ partial possessions this season yet. Andrew Wiggins has guarded him most: 17.1 partial possessions, 5 points on 2 of 7.
2025-26 matchups · roster as of Oct 30 · defender ratings as of Oct 30. Tough, average or soft is the defender's own FG% allowed against the league (top, middle or bottom third), shown only for defenders in the league ranking.
Team defense
Miami Heat: the 25th-best defense at an average pace; generous against guards on points.
Allowed-to-guards figures use 2025-26 (last season), 344 guard-games against MIA · team ratings over 5 games, snapshot 2026-10-30.
2 meetings on record: 10.5 points, 7.0 rebounds, 1.5 assists per game (last on Jan 10). The vs MIA window above shows each game.
MIA injury report · Oct 30
- Simone Fontecchio · Day-to-day
Lineup context
Team ratings with him on and off the floor, then points per game with and without his top teammates by minutes.
On and off
The team is 2.9 points per 100 possessions worse with him on the floor (small sample: under 100 minutes on one side).
- Net rating
Offensive and defensive rating
- Offensive rating
- Defensive rating (lower is better)
Points per 100 possessions · 2 games · as of Oct 26.
With and without teammates
Fewer than 5 games with IND this season, so last season (2025-26) is used.
- Jarace Walkersmall sample without
- Andrew NembhardDay-To-Day
Teammate availability from the injury report as of Oct 30.
Game log & career
Data availability
Coverage dates show how far the available figures extend.
Available
Observations through 2026-10-29.
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Observations through 2026-10-30.
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Observations through 2026-10-30.
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Observations through 2026-10-28.
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Observations through 2026-10-28.
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Observations through 2026-10-30.
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Observations through 2026-10-30.
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Observations through 2026-10-28.
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Observations through 2026-10-28.
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Observations through 2026-10-30.
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Observations through 2026-10-26.
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Observations through 2026-10-28.
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Observations through 2026-10-28.
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Observations through 2026-10-28.
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Observations through 2026-10-30.
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Observations through 2026-10-28.
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Observations through 2026-10-30.
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Observations through 2026-10-30.
